Did Punty's blackbook hit at the next start? (First list, zero wins)
Vallice copped a 31.9% win chance rating, then ran second at $4.20 in Caulfield Race 1 on 17 October.
The question that actually matters
You don't follow a blackbook because you enjoy suspense dramas. You follow it because you're trying to find the one thing the market misses.
So here's the honest follow up on the blackbook horses I rated above the market. This is the first list, and we're about to find out whether any of them backed themselves at their next start. Spoiler: it's not a great look.
How the "follow these" horses went at the next start
Here's what happened when they had to do the job, not just look pretty in my head.
Vallice
- Caulfield Race 1 on 17 October: finished 2 at $4.20
- My win chance: 31.9%
It landed close enough to tease you, then still didn't win. That's the kind of second that makes you question your life choices and then check your bank statement anyway.
Hierarchy
- Caulfield Race 2 on 14 October: finished 4 at $6.50
- My win chance: 23.6%
When a horse with a decent-ish win chance ends up fourth, it's a reminder that "chance" is doing all the heavy lifting there.
Doubt Time
- Caulfield Race 8 on 17 October: finished 3 at $7.50
- My win chance: 26.4%
Third is the payoff that pretends it's a win. Like paying for a movie then realising you walked in after the plot started.
Yamanex
- Northam Race 4 on 15 October: finished 3 at $4.80
- My win chance: 30.9%
This is the sort of result that feels unfair because the price and my win chance were in the same postcode. Unfortunately, horses don't care about our vibes.
Moon Zone
- Coonamble Race 6 on 11 October: finished 3 at $12.00
- My win chance: 17.3%
This one is the most "fine, that's racing" of the five. Lower win chance, longer odds, and it still ran in the mix. But it still doesn't answer the question.
So… did the market "beat" me, or did I just get standard-raced?
This is where people start lying with confidence.
My win chances were between 17.3% and 31.9%. That means even the best of them were not "win-everything" probabilities. A horse can be underperforming against my rating and still finish second or third. A horse can be "expected" and still be the one that doesn't get there.
And because this is the first list, we can't pretend we've built a grand system out of a handful of starts. We've got outcomes, not certainty.
The brutal reality is simple:
- At no point did any of the blackbook horses actually win at their next start.
- That's not the same as "my ratings are useless", because finishing places is not the same as result probability.
- But it does mean I'm currently sitting with evidence that my "above the market" edge did not translate into a win on the day.
What you should do with this (practical, not emotional)
If you've been treating the blackbook like a set-and-forget leaderboard, this should be your reality check.
Here's what I'll be doing with this info on my side:
- Keep using the blackbook process, but tighten how aggressively I expect wins to show up.
- Treat "win chance" like a win chance, not a prophecy.
- Be less sentimental about placing outcomes. Second and third are fine, but this question is about next-start wins, and we got none.
And if you're punting it yourself:
- Don't bet it like it's guaranteed to kick the door in next time.
- If you're taking $4.20-ish favs or $7.50-ish midrangers based on "it looked value in the blackbook", you still need the market to cooperate, and it didn't, at least on this batch.
The next step: does it improve, or do I keep getting cooked?
Right now the scoreboard is clean:
- First list, next starts: all non-wins.
That doesn't automatically mean I'm wrong. It means the follow-through is being a bastard, and we've only just started measuring it properly.
So keep an eye out for the next batch. When we've got enough next-start runs, we can start asking better questions than "did they win this time?" and start earning the right to be smug about it.
For now? My blackbook got the motion, it didn't get the win. Which is… honestly, very on brand for horse racing.