How Punty Works
A 9-factor probability engine, race classification, and EV-based bet selection. Here's the full breakdown.
Data Collection
Every morning, Punty wakes up and gets to work. He's got comprehensive data rattling around in his brain for every race meeting:
- → Full form history for every runner
- → Jockey and trainer statistics
- → Track conditions and weather
- → Barrier draws and rail positions
- → Speed maps and pace predictions
- → Class differential vs the field
- → Gear changes and comments
- → Sectional times and ratings
Probability Engine
Every runner gets a win and place probability from a 137-feature machine-learning model trained on a decade of Australian and NZ racing. On held-out test races the current build (v22.1) places the top pick 67.7% of the time.
Independence is the rule. The model has zero market-derived features — no odds, no money flow, no bookmaker price as input. The market price only enters at the very last step (staking) as a sanity check, never to override the model's read. Five categories drive the probability:
Recent results, track and distance win rates, condition specialists, A2E (actual vs expected) ratios, prize per start within the field, career stats, and days since last start.
Class differential vs the field, ratings spread, prize-money tier, and benchmarks earned at each level. Stepping up or dropping back in class is one of the strongest signals in the model.
Speed maps, settle position, pace scenarios, barrier draw, rail position, and how the race shape favours each running style.
Jockey and trainer win rate statistics, jockey-trainer combo strike, and rolling form — who's in form and who lifts a horse on race day.
Weight carried relative to the field, horse age, gear changes, track condition history, and venue-specific calibration so a wet Bendigo doesn't read like a firm Flemington.
Once the model has ranked the field, the market price is layered in at roughly 12–25% weight as a final reality check on the rank order. If our number says 33% and the market says 25%, that gap is the value. The market never feeds back into the model — it just stops Punty backing a horse the market has already priced into oblivion.
Stakes are sized using a quarter-Kelly criterion from a $20 pool per race. Bigger edge = bigger bet. Marginal edge = saver only. No edge worth backing = stay off. Bankroll management built into every pick.
Every probability and value rating is shown transparently on every pick — you can see exactly why Punty likes a horse and how much edge the model thinks it has. And no, Punty isn't always right. 67.7% place strike is a long way from infallible — it's just well clear of the break-even line.
Race Classification & Selections
Every race is classified before selections are made — dominant edge, place leverage, compressed value, or open handicap. The classification determines which bet types make sense and how stakes are allocated. For each race, Punty outputs:
Daily Early Mail
Each morning, Punty publishes the "Early Mail" - a complete rundown of every race at selected meetings. This includes:
- → Big 3: Punty's three most confident picks of the day, combined into a multi
- → Race-by-Race: Top 3 + Roughie for every race with brief analysis
Live Race-Day Updates
NEWPunty doesn't clock off after the early mail. He watches every race live, tracking how the track is riding compared to his speed map reads.
- 🏇 Win Celebrations: When a big-priced pick salutes, Punty lets you know with a live celebration post
- 🏁 Pace Analysis: After enough races, Punty reads the track bias and tells you if the speed map predictions are holding up
- ✅ Win Ticks: Winning selections get a green tick right on the tips page so you can see what hit at a glance
Results & Accountability
After the races, Punty tracks every result and publishes "The Wrap" - a full breakdown of how the day went. No hiding from bad days, no selective memory. Just honest reporting.
Every winner is recorded. Every loss is owned. That's how you know you're getting the real picture, not some curated highlight reel.
Want to see the numbers yourself? Check our daily tips — every winner gets a badge, every result is tracked. Full transparency, no hiding.
How to Use Punty's Tips
Punty gives you options, not orders
Punty was built to give you information and betting options - not to be followed blindly on every bet. If you backed every single pick across every race, you'd lose. That's not how racing works, and it's not how Punty is designed to be used.
Think of Punty as your well-researched mate at the pub who's done the form. He gives you the intel - you decide what to back based on your own read.
Race-by-Race Picks
Each race shows a Top 3 + Roughie. You don't need to bet all four. Punty highlights his recommended pick - the one he'd back with the most conviction.
- → Win bet on your top pick - the one you agree with most
- → Saver or Place on a second pick if you want coverage
- → You don't need to bet all four - pick what makes sense to you
Sequence Bets (Quaddie/Big 6)
Punty provides three variants for each sequence - Skinny, Balanced, and Wide. You wouldn't do all three. Pick the one that suits your read and your bankroll.
- → Skinny ($10) - when you're confident in the favourites
- → Balanced ($50) - the sweet spot for most meetings
- → Wide ($100) - only when there's genuine uncertainty across legs
Punty's Bet Types
Bet types are chosen by expected value, not habit. A dominant favourite gets a straight Win bet. A horse with a strong place edge gets Place only. Each Way only when both win and place EV are positive. Here's what each one means:
Straight win bet. Punty reckons this horse is winning. Pays only if it finishes first.
A smaller win bet to stay involved without going too deep. Used when Punty likes a horse but isn't fully convinced.
Pays if the horse finishes in the top 3. Lower return than a win bet, but much better chance of collecting.
Half on win, half on place. If it wins, both halves pay. If it places, you lose the win half but collect on the place half.
Track the Results
Every tip page shows settled results with winner badges. Before you back a bet type, see how it's been performing at each venue. Punty's Place bets might be flying at Flemington but need discipline at Randwick — use the results to make smarter decisions about which picks to follow.
See Today's TipsBottom line: Use Punty as a starting point for your own punting decisions. The analysis, speed maps, and form are all there - your job is to pick the bets that make sense to you. Don't bet what you can't afford to lose, and never chase losses.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Punty always right?
Fuck no. Anyone who claims to always be right is lying to you. Horse racing is unpredictable - that's what makes it exciting. Punty aims for consistent value over time, not perfection.
How much should I bet?
Only what you can afford to lose. Seriously. Punty provides analysis and picks, but you're responsible for your own bankroll management. If you're betting the rent money, you've got bigger problems than which horse to back.
Why is it free?
For now, we're building the audience and proving the model works. Premium features are coming - but the core picks will always be accessible.