Belmont
Wednesday, 18 February 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, likely sit-sprint (position and patience)
Punty read: This is the sort of staying maiden where half of them are allergic to winning and the other half are allergic to doing work. With the tempo flagged slow, anything giving away a big start and spotting them lengths risks getting bailed up and never seeing daylight. I want something that can be in the first half by the bell, or at least not last with a stack of traffic.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. You Can Call Me Al (No.1) — $2.90 / $1.63 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 13.2% | Place: 30.7% | Value: 0.50x
Why Blinkers on, and if he gets rolling at the right time he's got the engine to go past these plodders.
2. Pressurised (No.5) — $4.50 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.95
Prob 35.1% | Place: 34.3% | Value: 0.67x
Why Barrier 1 helps at this trip in a sit-sprint, and Pike can keep him out of the worst of the nonsense.
3. Bragging Rights (No.6) — $17.00 / $3.20 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.90
Prob 32.4% | Place: 32.0% | Value: 1.04x
Why Took support and if they dawdle then sprint, he's the sort that can pinch a cheque by being in the right lane late.
Roughie: Kody's Belle (No.9) — $11.00 / $4.33 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 24.3% | Place: 24.6% | Value: 1.09x
Why Draws to get a cosy run and if they stack up, she's one who can lob into the top three without doing cartwheels.
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, on-pace runners have their chance
Punty read: Sharp little dash. There's enough speed to keep it honest, but not so much that it falls into a swooper's lap by default. I'm respecting the ones that can hold a spot and kick, and I'm not marrying a $126 roughie that's drifted like it's been caught shoplifting.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Action Not Talk (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.67 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 18.2% | Place: 52.4% | Value: 0.69x
Why Market's been keen and the set-up suits a runner that can ping, sit, and launch.
2. Tangle Foot (No.11) — $4.00 / $1.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 45.2% | Place: 44.9% | Value: 0.73x
Why Pike in a short-course maiden is never a comfy sight for the rest of them.
3. Admire Belle (No.10) — $8.50 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 37.1% | Place: 35.9% | Value: 1.34x
Why The set-up says she can land close enough and be strong through the line when others are out of puff.
Roughie: New Target (No.9) — $19.00 / $7.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $3.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$18.00
Prob 32.8% | Place: 31.8% | Value: 2.39x
Why Low gate helps in these 1000m scrambles and the support early says there's intent.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate, but a couple will be fighting the pattern if they get too far back
Punty read: Plenty of first/second starters and a few that have already shown they can find trouble like it's their hobby. With the rail out, being midfield with cover is gold. Anything snagged back and wide is basically playing "Where's Wally" for a run.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Midnight Deal (No.11) — $4.20 / $2.07 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 12.6% | Place: 31.1% | Value: 0.73x
Why Pike jumps on and if he's got any talent, he's in the right hands to press the button at the right time.
2. Desert Ora (No.8) — $4.60 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.20
Prob 30.4% | Place: 29.6% | Value: 0.42x
Why Forgive run last time (held up) and should be charging late if she sees daylight.
3. Bahnbougle Baby (No.10) — $15.00 / $5.10 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 25.6% | Place: 25.9% | Value: 1.30x
Why Big price, but if the speed's there she can rattle into the minors and blow up the divvy.
Roughie: Knockonheavensdoor (No.1) — $41.00 / $14.33 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 22.6% | Place: 23.2% | Value: 2.09x
Why Barrier 2 gives the dream run and if he's anywhere near them on the bend, he can hang on for a surprise top-three.
Race type: Handicap (C3), 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate, with on-pace types a big look if they control it
Punty read: Now we're talking grown-ups. With the rail out, I want runners who can either land handy or get one clean crack. Ocean Goddess is the obvious one, but the real juice is in the place/value plays behind her. Moonshine Queen at the price is the kind of bet that makes you feel clever for 90 seconds and then terrified for the last 200m.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Ocean Goddess (No.6) — $3.10 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$14.70
Prob 16.4% | Place: 51.3% | Value: 0.64x
Why Keeps turning up, and if she gets the right trail she can be the one storming over the top.
2. Jackpot Bingo (No.3) — $3.70 / $1.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 45.2% | Place: 44.7% | Value: 0.69x
Why Pike from barrier 1 should get the suck run and be in the finish even if he doesn't win.
3. Moonshine Queen (No.8) — $20.00 / $7.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 40.5% | Place: 39.3% | Value: 3.12x
Why Maps to be competitive and if she's within striking distance on the bend, she's a proper collect chance.
Roughie: Anna's Boy (No.9) — $31.00 / $5.90 🏆 4TH
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 21.9% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 1.29x
Why On-pace profile in a race where that can absolutely matter with the rail out.
Race type: Handicap (C1), 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine, with No.6 likely rolling forward
Punty read: Dark Ambition is the likely pilot and that always matters at Belmont when the rail's not in the carpark. Media Mogul and Peaceful Ruler can stalk and pounce. I'm treating it as a race where the winner comes from the first four in run unless something goes completely feral.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Media Mogul (No.2) — $3.30 / $1.77 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 15.7% | Place: 49.0% | Value: 0.68x
Why Maps sweet on-pace and if the leader overcooks it, he's the one to cash in.
2. Dark Ambition (No.6) — $3.20 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.70
Prob 45.8% | Place: 46.7% | Value: 1.10x
Why Likely to control it and Pike can pinch lengths at the right time.
3. Guard The Mullah (No.7) — $17.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 32.2% | Place: 31.3% | Value: 0.97x
Why If the speed's honest, he can be the one charging into the frame when they're all legless.
Roughie: Tassort We Want (No.5) — $46.00 / $5.80 🏆 4TH
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 29.2% | Place: 27.6% | Value: 1.70x
Why On-pace runner at a rude price who can just stick around if they let her breathe.
Race type: Handicap (C1), 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine, speed engaged early
Punty read: So Si God is the obvious winner on talent, but the map says a few of these will get every chance to make it hard. I'm playing it as: take the win with the top dog, then shop for place value with the ones that can get a soft run and peel at the right moment.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. So Si God (No.4) — $2.40 / $1.47 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 21.5% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.63x
Why The one to beat, and if he's even close to last start, they're racing for second.
2. Searchin' Times (No.10) — $6.00 / $3.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$12.10
Prob 43.5% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 1.39x
Why Progressive type and if the leaders punch on, she's right in the sweet spot to pounce.
3. Chino Bay (No.7) — $11.00 / $5.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 32.9% | Place: 30.9% | Value: 1.78x
Why Draws for a cosy run and can be the one that sticks its nose into the money late.
Roughie: Fulmine (No.8) — $35.00 / $5.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 23.7% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.38x
Why If Pike finds cover and the tempo's hot, he can absolutely clunk into the frame at a silly price.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot tempo, multiple leaders (sets up for stalkers)
Punty read: This is the one where the front end could go absolutely troppo: Boab Boy, Let's Talk, Universal Playboy all want to be the main character. That can set the table for a midfield runner with cover to swoop over the top like the Undertaker in 2002. Snippy Which is short enough, but the race shape helps the stalkers and I'm very interested in Reconnaissance as the "adult in the room".
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Snippy Which (No.5) — $2.60 / $1.53 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$11.20
Prob 15.8% | Place: 45.9% | Value: 0.54x
Why Maps to get the right run behind the speed and can launch when they start coming back to him.
2. Reconnaissance (No.9) — $5.50 / $3.20 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 47.3% | Place: 43.8% | Value: 1.51x
Why Perfect hot-pace stalker profile and if they overdo it up front, he's the one to capitalise.
3. Boab Boy (No.2) — $13.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 30.8% | Place: 30.0% | Value: 0.86x
Why If he controls it without getting pressured into oblivion, he can stick on and pay.
Roughie: Universal Playboy (No.6) — $20.00 / $7.33 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 27.4% | Place: 27.1% | Value: 1.91x
Why If he crosses and gets a breather mid-race, he's good enough to hang on for a top-three at a biggish quote.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,3,1,8 / 2,6,4,7,3,1 / 4 / 5,9,1,3,2,4 (144 combos x $0.35 = $50.00) -- 35% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Action Not Talk (Race 2, No.2) — $3.00
2 - Ocean Goddess (Race 4, No.6)✓ Won — $3.10
3 - So Si God (Race 6, No.4)✗ — $2.40
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Belmont on a Good 4 with the rail shoved out +5m and the sun belting down like a dodgy solarium. This joint can turn into a "park, pinch runs, sprint home" situation real quick, so if your pick is spotting them six at the top of the straight… you're basically praying for a Moses parting of the seas.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Belmont, 1000-2100m card
Rail: +5m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play pretty fair, slight lean to those holding a spot)
Weather: Sunny 31C, gusty NNE (watch for leaders overdoing it into the breeze and backmarkers needing luck)
Early lane guess: Balanced-to-on-pace (don't be allergic to the fence)
Tempo profile: Race 1 is a funeral, Race 7 is a pub brawl, everything else sits in the "genuine" bucket
Jockeys to follow:
William Pike, stacks of key rides and he's a surgical unit when the rail's a factor
Chris Parnham, maps well and doesn't panic when it gets messy
Brad Parnham, strong in the run and times the peel like it's a Marvel end-credit scene
Stables to respect:
S & J Casey (5 runners), they've got bullets across the back end of the card
N D Parnham (5 runners), everywhere, and usually not for sightseeing
D T McAuliffe (3 runners), a couple that map sweet and can sting if the speed's on
Punty's take: Rail +5 at Belmont is like moving the party inside: anyone caught out wide is doing extra laps for no reason. The early maidens are proper "who wants it" races (read: chaos), so we're leaning into shape and position more than romantic backstory. Race 1 at 2100m looks a sit-and-sprint with a stack of backmarkers (gross), while Race 7 has multiple leaders going full Fast & Furious which can set it up for something stalking midfield with cover.
There's a few big market moves floating around the card too, but don't just follow the money like a confused seagull chasing chips. If the map screams "bad spot", the cash can still burn you. Today, I want runners that can hold a spot from the turn, and I'm happy to play place/value angles in the messy races rather than going full hero on the nose.
What it means for you: Don't try to solve every puzzle with a win bet. These are open races, so we play smarter: a couple of win anchors where the price is fair, then use place bets where the horse maps to be in the shot and doesn't need divine intervention. Protect your bank in the minefields, and swing where the set-up is clean.
Quaddie players: you're not "building an investment", you're buying entertainment in a meeting with open legs everywhere. Keep it tight where you can, spread where you must, and accept that sometimes Belmont just says "no" and takes your lunch money.