Sunday, 03 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1150m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with No.2 Strato Ken and No.1 Don Turboas likely to dictate things from near the speed.
Punty read: This is a crawl-and-sprint job, so the on-speed pair have first crack at it. Strato Ken has been crunched in the market and I get why, barrier 2, natural toe, and he should get every chance. Don Turboas is the one I want if the race gets messy at all: barrier 1, a recent excuse, and a bit of gear on to freshen him up. If this turns into a sit-and-shuffle affair, the backmarkers are going to need a miracle and a priest. Awesome Orphan's the roughie who can mop up late if the leaders botch the finish, but on paper this is a straight head-to-head between the top two.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Strato Ken (No.2) — $1.80 / $1.15 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 37.7% | Place: 14.6% | Value: 0.91x
Why The map is his friend, the market's had a dig, and he looks the one they have to catch if he jumps clean and rolls to the front.
2. Don Turboas (No.1) — $2.25 / $1.22 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.10
Prob 35.0% | Place: 14.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why Barrier 1 in a slow-run race is gold, and with the last-start interference excuse he gets a lovely shot at bouncing back.
3. Nunkeri (No.5) — $8.50 / $2.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 5.9% | Value: 1.36x
Why If the speed gets muddled and the favs eyeball each other too early, he's the one that can snatch a slice late.
Roughie: Awesome Orphan (No.3) — $20.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 3.4% | Value: 1.64x
Why Drifted like a barge and needs the leaders to overdo it, but if they leave the door open he'll be rattling home.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1009m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with No.3 Tikken, No.6 Party Day and No.1 Guber all mapping in the first wave.
Punty read: This is a map race, pure and simple. Tikken has the inside alley and the gear flip to sharpen him up, so if he jumps on terms he can pinch a lovely run. Party Day has had the cash and the smoke signals say the yard means business, but the price is now short enough that you want the run to go exactly to script. Guber's a grinder who keeps finding the line and can be right in the picture if the pace isn't too manic. The roughie Flying Home is the lunatic's place chance if the race turns into a shambles and the leaders overcook it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Tikken (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$41.30
Prob 22.9% | Place: 41.8% | Value: 0.91x
Why Inside draw, handy map, and enough gear tinkering to suggest the stable wants a sharper version today. He can absolutely control the race if he begins.
2. Party Day (No.6) — $2.30 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.00
Prob 21.1% | Place: 39.7% | Value: 0.98x
Why He has been smashed in the market for a reason, they want to ride the pace and make the others chase. The only worry is the price has been snapped up to the point where he's got little room for error.
3. Guber (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.85 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why If he gets a soft ride from the inside, he's a genuine exotics player, but the yard's been cold enough to make you nervous.
Roughie: Flying Home (No.10) — $20.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 19.8% | Value: 2.11x
Why Massive drift tells you the market isn't in love, but if the tempo turns to mush and they go silly early, he'll be the one flashing late.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1350m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with No.3 Khaleesi's Dream disadvantaged by the map but still the class act; No.1 Alla Rustica and No.4 Light Work can stalk.
Punty read: This is the class-versus-map race. Khaleesi's Dream has been eased in the market, which usually gives the nervous types a wobble, but she's still the one with the strongest profile and the stable to trust. Alla Rustica gets the inside and can hang around for the exacta if the favourite gets boxed up. Light Work is the one I want to keep in mind if the tempo turns into a sit-and-sprint from the turn. Occasional Glimpse is the roughie with the path to land a place if they go slow enough for the leaders to stack them up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Khaleesi's Dream (No.3) — $1.45 / $1.02 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$6.60
Prob 44.9% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.82x
Why The one they all have to beat. She's the class runner and if Erica Byrne Burke gets her into a smooth spot, the rest are going to need luck.
2. Alla Rustica (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 17.0% | Place: 42.9% | Value: 0.81x
Why Inside draw, handy enough to stalk, and the sort of runner who can hang on if the favourite gets stuck in traffic.
3. Light Work (No.4) — $10.00 / $1.80 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 36.5% | Value: 1.18x
Why The big danger if the race gets run as a crawl; he can peel and finish if the leaders don't break clear.
Roughie: Occasional Glimpse (No.5) — $21.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 32.0% | Value: 1.63x
Why Big price, but not dead, if the favourite over-races or gets cluttered up, this bloke can run into the frame.
Race type: Benchmark 60, 1350m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with No.3 Ilovethistown likely to roll along and No.5 Roundle Park, No.1 Obviously Good and No.6 Simply Deep all in the firing line.
Punty read: This is the kind of race that starts innocent and ends with everyone staring at the sky. Roundle Park has had the cash and looks the obvious horse to argue about, but I don't love the price in a race with this much pressure and a few horses that can ruin the script. Obviously Good is the one with the proper each-way angle if he finds a rhythm, while Simply Deep gets the place nod because he can sit in the right spot and keep grinding. Purr Sefanee and Stardarmus are the types that can blow up the exotic pools if the leaders go too hard and the race gets messy. Proper chaos job, this one.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Obviously Good (No.1) — $9.00 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$5.25
Prob 17.1% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 1.85x
Why He can sit handy, the map isn't against him, and if the favourite underperforms he has the tactical run to sting them.
2. Simply Deep (No.6) — $5.50 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.00
Prob 16.2% | Place: 31.5% | Value: 1.07x
Why The sort of honest grinder you want when the race is likely to be a bit of a dogfight. If they run the right tempo, he'll be there late.
3. Purr Sefanee (No.7) — $15.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 27.3% | Value: 2.43x
Why Needs things to fall his way, but he's got enough natural speed to stalk and pounce if the leaders get tangled.
Roughie: Stardarmus (No.4) — $26.00 / $4.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 3.63x
Why Backmarker in a race with a bit of heat on up front; if the pace melts, he's the swooper that'll have the last say.
Race type: Class 1, 1650m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with No.1 Bulbuk expected to take them along and No.5 Merlin Beach getting the perfect stalking run from the inside.
Punty read: Merlin Beach looks the one with the cleanest map and the market agrees to a point, but I like him because he can sit in the box seat and let the chaos unfold around him. Taroona is the danger if the race gets stretched out, while Rippington is the kind of honest type who can keep punching for a place. Knights Reign has enough honest form to be in the mix, and Last Tremble is the roughie with a sneaky path if the race turns into a speed war and the leaders soften each other up. This is not a race to get fancy in; it's about who gets the right run without copping a bump from the rest of the circus.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Merlin Beach (No.5) — $2.15 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $11.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.00
Prob 17.3% | Place: 39.4% | Value: 0.46x
Why Barrier 1 is a dream here and the map says he gets to sit exactly where you want. If he gets the split at the right time, they'll be chasing shadows.
2. Taroona (No.11) — $5.00 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.40
Prob 13.8% | Place: 33.0% | Value: 0.86x
Why Wide-ish in the lineup but good enough to run into the money if the tempo is hot and the leaders start wobbling.
3. Rippington (No.7) — $5.50 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 30.8% | Value: 0.86x
Why Honest old worker who can keep ticking over if the pace is genuine; needs the top two to do the donkey work.
Roughie: Last Tremble (No.9) — $26.00 / $5.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 23.6% | Value: 3.00x
Why The sort of roughie that benefits if the leaders all decide to start fighting at the same time. Big price, but not hopeless.
Race type: Class 1, 1150m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with No.4 California Flyer and No.6 Respite likely to control or sit just off it, while No.1 Highland Duel has to overcome a nasty gate.
Punty read: This is where the market and the map aren't quite singing the same song. The Real Man has been smashed in the betting, but that price is shorter than a bar tab after payday and he's got barrier 12 to deal with in a race that still has a bit of pressure. Respite is the steady one with the right setup, Rushonova is the map runner who can stalk and strike, and California Flyer is good enough to threaten if he lands on-speed without spending petrol. Highland Duel is the one for the each-way dreamers: tongue tie on, pace suits, but the gate is filthy and he needs a bit of luck to slot in. It's the sort of race where the bloke who backs the map usually ends up with the money.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Respite (No.6) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 14.8% | Place: 39.1% | Value: 0.91x
Why Gets the right sort of run, has a neat fit for the trip, and if the leaders don't burn too much petrol he can pounce.
2. Rushonova (No.7) — $6.50 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 13.3% | Place: 36.1% | Value: 1.07x
Why Maps to get a stalking run and is the sort of honest operator who can stick on when the pressure goes on.
3. California Flyer (No.4) — $7.50 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 33.4% | Value: 1.13x
Why Can control the early tempo if he jumps well, but he's only useful if he gets the right trip from the outset.
Roughie: Highland Duel (No.1) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 30.4% | Value: 1.34x
Why The tongue tie can sharpen him up, but barrier 13 is a proper bastard in this setup. Needs luck to slot in, then he can run on.
Race type: Benchmark 60, 1009m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, with half the field wanting to roll forward and No.2 Fluffy's Girl right in the firing line.
Punty read: This one should be run at a proper lick, and that's why I'm keen on Fluffy's Girl and Zuni. Fluffy's Girl maps to get the ideal run from a good gate while the others burn themselves out, and Zuni has enough speed to stay in the hunt without getting cooked. Platinum Reggae is honest and can fill a spot if the race isn't too savage, while Miss Keeds is the wild one with the gear change that could sharpen her up enough to jump into the finish. Stars In The Night is the roughie I don't want to leave out of any exotics, if the leaders go too hard, she'll be the one flying home like a Marvel superhero in the last 100.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Fluffy's Girl (No.2) — $3.60 / $1.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.50 Each Way ($7.75W + $7.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.50
Prob 18.7% | Place: 35.1% | Value: 0.83x
Why Good gate, good map, and the right kind of horse for a blazing sprint where position is everything.
2. Zuni (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.40
Prob 15.4% | Place: 30.5% | Value: 1.81x
Why The map says he gets a nice stalking run and he can absolutely hang around if the burners go too hard early.
3. Platinum Reggae (No.5) — $8.00 / $2.45 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 28.3% | Value: 1.38x
Why Honest as they come, but he'll need the pressure to suit and a bit of luck to finish over the top of them.
Roughie: Miss Keeds (No.3) — $9.00 / $2.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 25.4% | Value: 1.36x
Why Blinkers off first time can help, but the hot tempo is the real ally, if she settles, she can bob up into the frame.
Race type: Benchmark 72, 1150m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with No.1 Thoros Of Myr and No.2 Lovin' Bev likely to make the running; No.5 Whippin Piccadilly and No.4 Lady Galadriel get the stalking runs.
Punty read: Here's the race where the inside draw and the market aren't quite telling the same story. Lady Galadriel has the map and the short quote, and she can absolutely land in the money, but she's skinny enough that I don't want to be paying overs for the privilege. Whippin Piccadilly is the better value play because he can stalk the leaders and get the last crack at them, while Only Old Once is the old bugger with the tongue tie on first time and enough class to absolutely rock up if the tempo gets serious. Adachi and Bold Instinct have had a touch of support, so keep them in mind for the exotics, but the main bet is on the one that's been set to swoop late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Whippin Piccadilly (No.5) — $8.00 / $3.30 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 21.6% | Place: 8.8% | Value: 2.07x
Why Big value compared with the board and the kind of horse that can sit off the hot ones and finish over the top if they overcook it.
2. Lady Galadriel (No.4) — $2.50 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.00
Prob 21.0% | Place: 8.6% | Value: 0.63x
Why Inside draw, honest map, and she's the obvious safety net if the race is run straight and true.
3. Only Old Once (No.7) — $19.00 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 7.2% | Value: 3.92x
Why The tongue tie could give him the little boost he needs, and if the leaders roll along too freely he'll be the one attacking late.
Roughie: Lovin' Bev (No.2) — $12.00 / $4.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.2% | Place: 1.9% | Value: 0.61x
Why Not the one I want to trust at the price, but if the map gets ugly she can hang on for a slice.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,1,5 / 3,6,1,4 / 3,1,4,5 / 1,6,7,4,2 (240 combos x $0.15 = $35.00) -- 15% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,11,7,3,9 / 6,7,4,1,2,3 / 2,4,5,3,1 / 5,4,7 (450 combos x $0.18 = $80.00) -- 18% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3 / 1 / 5 / 6 / 2 / 5 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Khaleesi's Dream (Race 3, No.3)✓ Won — $1.45
2 - Merlin Beach (Race 5, No.5) — $2.15
3 - Fluffy's Girl (Race 7, No.2) — $3.60
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Devonport's serving up a synthetic card with showers circling and a few races that look like they were cooked up by a bloke who hates neat little form lines and loves a bit of drama. Rail's true, so the low draws matter and the on-speed brigade can absolutely make life miserable, but this isn't a sit-back-and-yawn card, the sprints have enough zip to turn into a proper barney, while the middle races are full of little traps for young players.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Devonport Synthetic, 1009m-1650m card
Rail: True
Official going: Synthetic, expected to play fair to slightly on-speed
Weather: Showers increasing, 16°C, humidity 74%, wind 7km/h NE (watch for fresh rain and a wetter lane late)
Early lane guess: Low draws and handy runners get their chance if the surface stays even
Tempo profile: Hot speed in R2 and R7, tactical in R3, and a few mug-punter minefields through R4-R6
Jockeys to follow:
Erica Byrne Burke, gets the plum rides on Khaleesi's Dream, Ilovethistown and a few others that actually know how to win; when she's in rhythm she can make a card look easy.
David Pires, keeps popping up on horses that map well and can stalk the speed; very handy when the race is all about positioning rather than brute force.
Jabez Johnstone, has a stack of live mounts across the day and lands on enough handy maps to be dangerous from the get-go.
Stables to respect:
Adam Trinder (6 runners), Khaleesi's Dream, Merlin Beach, Respite, Rushonova and Lady Galadriel give the yard plenty of live ammo.
Ms L Gaffney (6 runners), across this card she's got enough darts to nick a race or two if the pattern suits.
Barry Campbell (4 runners), always worth a squint when the map is handy and the tempo isn't too feral.
Punty's take:
This is the sort of meeting where the speed map is basically the referee. In the sprints, if you're not close enough to sniff the leader's arse at the 400, you can be kissing your money goodbye. R2 and R7 look like proper pressure races, which means the drawn-out mugs can either get buried or get the last crack at them if the leaders go too hard. R3 looks the most straight-up race on the card: one proper anchor, a couple of danger runners, and not much room for fantasy football selections.
The nasty bit is R4 through R6. That's where the card turns into a cold beer and a bad decision, short-priced hopes with awkward maps, a couple of drifters that the market has walked away from, and enough chaos to make a quad feel like a game of roulette. If you want the short version: the day leans on position, not heroics, and the horses with a map advantage are the ones that can make you look smart at the pub.
What it means for you:
Don't go trying to be a hero in every race. Use the anchors where the map and class line up, lean into place bets when the race shape is messy, and don't force a win bet just because the odds look tidy. This card has a few genuine bankers, but it also has enough rough edges to chop up anyone who starts throwing darts like they've had one too many schooners.
The best play is to be selective: take the races where the leader can control it or the favourite is genuinely a class above, and protect yourself in the open bunches where the track, tempo and barriers can all conspire to ruin your day. If the meeting starts playing to the front runners, stay with the on-speed types. If the first few races show the swoopers are getting a crack, then adjust fast and don't get stuck on the fence like a mug.