Saturday, 07 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with No.4 Military Tycoon likely to hold the front and No.1 Legacy Bound stalking within striking range.
Punty read: This is one of the cleaner maps of the day, and that's worth its weight in cold hard beer. No.4 Military Tycoon gets all the favours up front from barrier 1, but No.1 Legacy Bound is the horse with the better profile - unbeaten first-up, proven down the straight, and carrying a lovely light impost with the claim. No.7 Vangogh Bankcheque is the sexy market mover, but at the current price he's flirting with unders. No.2 Shining Smile is the weird one - big drift, yes, but the old Flemington form and that monster overlay profile say don't bin him like last week's sushi.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Legacy Bound (No.1) — $2.70 / $1.57 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.00
Prob 39.6% | Place: 58.3% | Value: 1.20x
Why First-up record is spotless, the straight track suits, and he maps to get the perfect smother off the leader before launching.
2. Vangogh Bankcheque (No.7) — $4.10 / $2.03 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.5% | Place: 17.5% | Value: 0.35x
Why The market's come for him and Jamie Melham is a plus, but at the quote he's a bit too rockstar, not enough album sales.
3. Military Tycoon (No.4) — $5.40 / $2.47 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 16.5% | Value: 0.41x
Why Controls the speed from barrier 1 and the wind setup helps leaders, so if he gets left alone he's dangerous.
Roughie: Shining Smile (No.2) — $11.50 / $4.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 31.7% | Place: 46.7% | Value: 5.25x
Why Huge drift is the obvious knock, but gelded, loves Flemington, and if he lands in the first four he can absolutely snag a place and maybe more.
Race type: Benchmark 84, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.1 Press Down and No.2 Nervous Witness looking the likely speed.
Punty read: The obvious talent horse is No.3 She's An Artist, but she's been absolutely belted in betting and the price now looks like a landlord's wet dream. She can still win - and run top two in her sleep - but this is where you start asking whether you're taking unders just because the market's screaming. No.9 Verdoux is the much more interesting punting play. Good second-up, hot jockey, and the drift gives you something to work with. No.8 Hezdarnhottoo and No.7 Codigo are both around the mark, but this smells like a race where the place angle on the fave and a win crack at the value horse is the adult move.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. She's An Artist (No.3) — $1.95 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$0.34
Prob 75.0% | Place: 75.0% | Value: 0.90x
Why She's airborne, loves the trip, and should lob in a lovely on-pace spot despite the sticky gate.
2. Verdoux (No.9) — $5.20 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$40.25
Prob 24.5% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.34x
Why The drift is your mate here, not your enemy - second-up stats are strong and Ben Allen is riding like he stole the cheat codes.
3. Hezdarnhottoo (No.8) — $8.80 / $3.60 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 31.6% | Place: 31.6% | Value: 1.14x
Why Right in the mix on ability, but the stable's been a bit cold and the market has already trimmed a chunk out of the price.
Roughie: Codigo (No.7) — $12.00 / $4.67 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 23.0% | Value: 0.77x
Why Honest old campaigner who maps to race handy and keeps finding reasons to fill a hole without quite pinching the lot.
Race type: Open, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with No.4 Scintillation likely to spear across and control.
Punty read: Ah yes, the juvenile dash - where form students turn into conspiracy theorists. The map says No.4 Scintillation gets every favour, and with the headwind setup that matters. No.2 Medicinal has already shown talent and was plain forgiven for the held-up, slow-start nonsense before winning second-up. No.1 Rebel Tuesday is the big overlay and the obvious roughie to scare everyone silly, while No.3 Simply Steffi has the inside draw and a horror map if she gets cluttered up like traffic on Punt Road.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Medicinal (No.2) — $2.50 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$10.50
Prob 15.3% | Place: 39.7% | Value: 0.41x
Why Forgive the debut traffic jam, respect the second-up win, and trust the stable to have this little rocket ready.
2. Simply Steffi (No.3) — $9.80 / $3.93 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.8% | Place: 30.8% | Value: 1.21x
Why Good jockey-trainer setup and upside there, but from barrier 1 she'll need luck and not all 2YOs handle being bailed up.
3. Scintillation (No.4) — $12.50 / $4.83 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 41.7% | Place: 41.7% | Value: 2.02x
Why Maps to lead, the market support is real, and if Jamie Mott gets a cheap first split they might all be chasing shadows.
Roughie: Rebel Tuesday (No.1) — $9.40 / $3.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 35.4% | Place: 75.0% | Value: 3.43x
Why Strong profile, hot jockey, and if they overdo it even slightly she's the one steaming over the top like a tiny horse-shaped freight train.
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with No.1 Here To Shock the likely leader and a bunch stalking behind him.
Punty read: This is where the card starts asking proper questions. No.1 Here To Shock rolls forward and gives a kick, and that alone makes him dangerous because the headwind won't hurt him the way it hurts the swoopers. No.3 Persian Spirit is the top pick off the model and gets conditions to suit despite not being the sexiest horse in the race. No.2 Cafe Millenium is the backmarker with the class to blouse them late if the run comes. No.7 Welcometotheshow is no mug either, but he's drawn the inside and might need Craig to channel peak George Clooney levels of smooth.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Persian Spirit (No.3) — $4.20 / $2.07 🏆 4TH
Bet $18.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$18.00
Prob 24.2% | Place: 63.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why Honest, consistent, good at the trip, and this race shape gives him every chance to land in the sweet spot.
2. Cafe Millenium (No.2) — $5.00 / $2.33 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 44.8% | Place: 44.8% | Value: 1.04x
Why Track and trip profile is strong, and if they run along he's one of the better closers in the race.
3. Welcometotheshow (No.7) — $10.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.9% | Place: 30.9% | Value: 1.24x
Why Tough little bugger with good recent form, but he might need a peach from barrier 1 to avoid getting buried in traffic.
Roughie: Here To Shock (No.1) — $8.00 / $3.33 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.0% | Place: 52.1% | Value: 1.83x
Why If he gets rolling in front and pinches a cheap breather mid-race, he'll take plenty of catching.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.2 Sass Appeal likely to settle in the first few and control her own destiny.
Punty read: This looks like one of the more straightforward form races on the card. No.2 Sass Appeal has done nothing wrong, gets a race shape that suits, and is exactly the type you don't overcomplicate. No.1 Salty Pearl is the danger if the tempo is genuine enough for a late crack, while No.7 Lathlain and No.3 After Summer are the juicier odds plays if you're hunting value. The sneaky bit here is that the moderate pace helps the handy runners, so don't fall in love with every swooper just because the mile sounds romantic.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Sass Appeal (No.2) — $2.60 / $1.53 🏆 WINNER
Bet $17.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.70
Prob 38.2% | Place: 75.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why Hat-trick filly, maps sweetly, and she keeps finding when others start paddling.
2. Salty Pearl (No.1) — $3.05 / $1.68 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.60
Prob 46.2% | Place: 46.2% | Value: 0.78x
Why Rise in trip suits and she's the obvious one to be charging late if they make a race of it.
3. Lathlain (No.7) — $13.00 / $5.00 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.9% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.69x
Why Map is okay, upside is there, and if he improves second-up he can make this mighty interesting.
Roughie: After Summer (No.3) — $16.50 / $6.17 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 28.1% | Value: 1.70x
Why Big market support and the horse did her better work over longer in the first prep, so the mile won't be an issue.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo with not much obvious pressure, which makes settling position and timing absolutely crucial.
Punty read: Slow-run 2YO races are where punters start hallucinating value. No.1 Zambales is the obvious horse on exposed class, but he's very short and may end up needing to outsprint them in a sit-sprint. No.4 Hydrobomb was sharp on debut and has upside. No.2 Eurocanto is the forgive run from the Blue Diamond and gets a race that could let him travel better, while No.7 Leopard Shark is the proper sicko play with blinkers going on and a profile that screams upside at the price. If he lands one pair closer than expected, look out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Zambales (No.1) — $1.81 / $1.27 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 47.4% | Place: 47.4% | Value: 0.60x
Why Clearly talented and brings the best exposed form, but at the current quote you're paying full retail and then some.
2. Hydrobomb (No.4) — $11.50 / $4.50 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 35.6% | Place: 35.6% | Value: 1.60x
Why Debut run was full of promise and he draws to get every chance in a race lacking obvious depth.
3. Eurocanto (No.2) — $20.00 / $7.33 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 37.9% | Place: 37.9% | Value: 2.78x
Why The Blue Diamond run was ugly, but forgivable ugly, and this is a much more suitable setup.
Roughie: Leopard Shark (No.7) — $13.00 / $5.00 🏆 8TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 26.6% | Place: 58.5% | Value: 3.54x
Why Blinkers first time, big upside, and he's the exact sort of 2YO improver that makes everyone look stupid in hindsight.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with No.8 Pride Of Jenni charging forward and trying to turn it into organised chaos.
Punty read: What a race. No.8 Pride Of Jenni will do what she always does - go forward, rip the Band-Aid off, and ask the others whether they're fit enough to chase. The catch is she's first-up and the market's absolutely smashed her, so the value has gone walkabout. That opens the door for the proper stalking brigade. No.4 Evaporate has a great second-up profile, No.11 Leica Lucy is the mare with upside at the mile, and No.6 Watch Me Rock is the roughie with a profile that could make the tote board look like a slot machine. No.1 Tom Kitten is talented, but the price isn't for me.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Pride Of Jenni (No.8) — $3.20 / $1.73 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 15.8% | Place: 41.2% | Value: 0.54x
Why If she controls this without burning too much fuel, she can pinch it the way only she can - all elbows and attitude.
2. Evaporate (No.4) — $11.00 / $4.33 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 37.8% | Place: 37.8% | Value: 1.64x
Why Loves the trip, maps to stalk, and this is exactly the kind of race where a horse in the right spot can mug them late.
3. Leica Lucy (No.11) — $11.50 / $4.50 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 40.4% | Place: 40.4% | Value: 1.82x
Why Keeps measuring up in strong races and gets the kind of setup where one clean run makes her a genuine threat.
Roughie: Watch Me Rock (No.6) — $19.50 / $7.17 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 39.5% | Value: 3.31x
Why Mile stats are outstanding and if they overcook it chasing Jenni, he's the roughie who can come whistling over the top.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.2 Machine Gun Gracie and No.3 Philia expected to roll forward.
Punty read: This is a proper chaos handicap and if you come in here saying "good thing", someone should take your account off you for the afternoon. No.8 Sea What I See gets a lovely map from barrier 2 and that's the main reason she's on top of the staked runners. No.5 Damask Rose is the classy closer, No.3 Philia can improve sharply second-up if she doesn't get into a silly speed battle again, and No.6 Too Darn Discreet is the roughie with the profile to blow this up at a nice price. This race is less The Godfather and more Mad Max.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Sea What I See (No.8) — $4.10 / $2.03 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 16.3% | Place: 42.3% | Value: 0.77x
Why Perfectly drawn, pace-advantaged, and should get the stalking run every punter dreams about.
2. Damask Rose (No.5) — $5.20 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 36.5% | Place: 36.5% | Value: 0.88x
Why Talented mare and the AI likes her more than the market, but she still needs the race to unfold kindly from out wide.
3. Philia (No.3) — $16.00 / $6.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 36.4% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 2.19x
Why Forget the fresh run where she got involved too early - second-up at the mile is much more her jam.
Roughie: Too Darn Discreet (No.6) — $12.00 / $4.67 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.4% | Place: 53.0% | Value: 2.83x
Why Strong Flemington record, right trip, and if the gaps come she's the roughie who can turn this into anarchy.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.5 Sepals and No.3 War Machine among the more map-friendly runners.
Punty read: Here we go, the big straight-track headspin. No.2 Tentyris is the obvious horse but the price is skinnier than my patience after three photo-finish losses. No.13 My Gladiola is the dependable type for the place line, No.3 War Machine has been backed like someone knows where the bodies are buried, and No.4 Angel Capital is the roughie with enough class to make a mess of tickets. The straight six at Flemington is never just about ability - position, tow into the race, and not getting stranded in the wrong bunch all matter. One bad lane call and you're cooked like a servo pie.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Tentyris (No.2) — $2.20 / $1.40 🏆 5TH
Bet $13.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 19.4% | Place: 50.4% | Value: 0.49x
Why Track and trip profile is outstanding, and he resumed like a horse with bigger races in him.
2. My Gladiola (No.13) — $5.80 / $2.60 🏆 10TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 42.9% | Place: 42.9% | Value: 1.11x
Why Honest as the day is long, stable's going well, and the place quote gives you a bit of breathing room in a savage race.
3. War Machine (No.3) — $17.00 / $6.33 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.2% | Place: 30.2% | Value: 1.91x
Why Massive market support, good straight-track form, and if the fresh issue is behind him he can absolutely jag a result.
Roughie: Angel Capital (No.4) — $14.50 / $5.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 26.4% | Value: 1.47x
Why Better second-up, hot hoop aboard, and if he gets the right cart into the race he's not out of it at all.
Race type: Open, 2000m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with No.5 Desert Hero likely to roll and No.3 Magnaspin not far away.
Punty read: Lovely little get-out race if you've still got your trousers on by now. No.5 Desert Hero is the interesting map horse because he'll roll forward and keep them honest, while No.4 Immediacy looks the horse most likely to get the right run just off that speed. No.6 Point King is the value place play first-up at the trip, No.1 Augustus has class but maybe not enough fat left in the price, and No.8 Litzdeel is one for the exotics if you need a late thrill and a slight increase in heart rate. Genuine tempo at 2000m means you're not just handing it to the flash closers - they still need to be within shouting distance.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Immediacy (No.4) — $5.90 / $2.63 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 16.9% | Place: 44.0% | Value: 1.23x
Why Maps beautifully, handles the trip, and looks the best blend of chance and value in a race full of ifs and buts.
2. Point King (No.6) — $9.60 / $3.87 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 40.1% | Place: 40.1% | Value: 1.55x
Why Fresh at 2000m is bold, but he's got the class and Jamie Melham to make it work if he settles close enough.
3. Augustus (No.1) — $3.95 / $1.98 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 40.0% | Place: 40.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why Big overseas form and a strong local jumpout, but the market's already given him the full celebrity treatment.
Roughie: Desert Hero (No.5) — $19.50 / $7.17 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 2.37x
Why If he gets his own way in front and those gear tweaks sharpen him up, he can hang around a lot longer than the price suggests.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,2,4 / 3,1,7 / 2,1,7 / 7,2,4 (81 combos x $0.25 = $20.00) -- 25% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Legacy Bound (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $2.70
2 - Verdoux (Race 2, No.9)✓ Won — $5.20
3 - Sass Appeal (Race 5, No.2)✓ Won — $2.60
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Sickos, Flemington's rolled out a Good 4 with the rail out 6m, a southerly smacking them in the snout up the straight, and a card that starts like a nice polite schooner before turning into a full pub brawl by the time the Newmarket and the Prelude rock up. This is not the day to be a blind favourite muncher. This is the day to pick your spots, trust the map, and avoid punting like a bloke ordering 14 espresso martinis at 11am.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Flemington, 1000-2000m card
Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair early with a slight nudge to on-pace runners)
Weather: Cloudy, 20C, light chance of drizzle (watch for that moderate southerly and the headwind up the straight)
Early lane guess: Middle to inside should be fine early, but anything left spotting them a start into that straight breeze might be pushing a wheelbarrow
Tempo profile: Plenty of genuine speed in the short-course races, then a stack of open middle-distance puzzles where map position matters more than sexy form comments
Jockeys to follow:
Ms Jamie Melham, key rides all day and she lands on several map-friendly hopes including No.7 Vangogh Bankcheque, No.3 She's An Artist, No.8 Sea What I See and No.6 Point King
Ben Melham, riding well and gets serious live chances like No.3 Simply Steffi, No.4 On Display, No.11 Ahha Ahha and No.4 Angel Capital
Mark Zahra, when he's at Flemington on good ground with proper ammunition, you pay attention; No.1 Zambales, No.1 Benagil, No.2 Tentyris and No.1 Augustus say hello
Stables to respect:
C Maher (11 runners), huge hand across the card and plenty of them map to be in the first half-dozen, which matters with this breeze
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (9 runners), active all day in the sprints and the 2YO features, with enough depth to pinch multiple races
C J Waller (5 runners), not a machine-gun attack, but every dart has a pulse, especially in the better races
Punty's take: Flemington with a headwind up the straight is one of those glorious little traps where every mug thinks "big straight, swoopers all day", then by Race 3 they're staring at a leader pinching cheap sectionals like Danny Ocean. That southerly doesn't completely kill the backmarkers, but it absolutely makes life harder for anything trying to launch from another postcode. If you're on something settling back, you'd better be getting tempo and gaps, not prayers and interpretive dance.
The sprint races are the juicy bit early. Race 1 looks beautifully set up for No.1 Legacy Bound to park just off No.4 Military Tycoon and pounce, while the market's giving No.2 Shining Smile the old cold shoulder despite a stack of Flemington form and a big profile edge. Race 3 is the classic 2YO form headache where half the field are babies, the other half are mysteries, and one of them could improve like Rocky after a training montage. No.4 Scintillation maps to roll and that immediately matters here.
Then the card turns into proper grown-up punting. Race 7 is a beauty with No.8 Pride Of Jenni wanting to do Pride Of Jenni things - roll forward, annoy the whole suburb, and dare them to catch her. But the value creepers are everywhere around her: No.4 Evaporate, No.11 Leica Lucy, No.6 Watch Me Rock. Race 9 Newmarket is the full Marvel multiverse of chances. If you think you've "found the winner" in a big Flemington handicap with fourteen in and half of them carrying excuses, you're either a genius or you've been hit in the head by a barstool.
What it means for you: Be aggressive early where the maps are cleaner and the race shape is easier to read. Race 1 gives you a proper anchor horse and a juicy quinella partner. Race 5 also looks like a race where the key players are pretty obvious: No.2 Sass Appeal makes her own luck, No.1 Salty Pearl gets the trip, and the roughie No.3 After Summer isn't hopeless if the market move is real and not just some coat-tugger spraying at the birdcage.
Where you protect yourself is the late card. The All-Star Mile, Matron and Newmarket are all proper banana peels. That's where place plays, quinellas and keeping your powder dry matter. No need to play hero-ball in every race like you're trying to impress Margot Robbie at the bar. Take the safer spots when the map says so, and save the cowboy stuff for the exotics where the value actually exists.
And one more thing for the galoot crew: keep an eye on leaders and on-pacers that don't have to overwork early. With the wind setup, the best scenario is often stalk, peel, and go - not snagging to last and trying to run the Everest in the final 400m. If your horse is buried out the back in a sit-sprint, you may as well start drafting the bad beat text to your mates.