Thursday, 26 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: CLASS 1, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with the backmarkers carrying the usual handicap of a crawl
Punty read: This is one of those races where the market wants to pat itself on the back and call the favourite a certainty, but the price on Emerald Hills is skinny enough to make your eyes water. Unavoidable is the horse I want with the race shape and the right sort of soft-track profile, while Midori Giant is the honest old trier who can run a drum without setting the world on fire. Wormington is the roughie that can sneak into it if they all start looking at each other at the 300.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Unavoidable (No.3) — $4.70 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 32.8% | Place: 60.9% | Value: 1.76x
Why The class edge is plain as day and the soft track doesn't hurt him; if he gets even a halfway decent steer through the crawl, he's right in the sweet spot.
2. Emerald Hills (No.5) — $1.79 / $3.60 🏆 5TH
Bet $11.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$11.00
Prob 29.1% | Place: 56.3% | Value: 0.60x
Why Best horse on paper but not the sort of price you go diving into headfirst - she's got the engine, just not the collect-factor.
3. Midori Giant (No.1) — $4.40 / $3.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.0% | Place: 40.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why Honest enough and the blinkers are back, but the weight and the overall picture say he's more the bloke who fills the frame than smashes the door down.
Roughie: Wormington (No.8) — $8.95 / $4.80 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 26.5% | Value: 1.23x
Why If the tempo stays a snooze and they fan late, this is the one who can stalk the play and lob into the finish with a cheeky little swoop.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with the on-speed runners expected to get their chance while the backmarkers need things to fall their way
Punty read: Crusader Voyage is the one they'll all need to get past, but he looks a touch on the skinny side and that's enough to keep me honest. The Big Blue has been around the money, gets a handy draw, and should get every crack at it if the speed is honest. Feazabeel is the sneaky one with enough soft-track and staying type clues to make the frame, while Moordyup is the roughie with a map that says "don't ignore me" if the race gets a bit frenetic.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Crusader Voyage (No.4) — $2.49 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $17.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.75
Prob 25.7% | Place: 65.7% | Value: 0.80x
Why He maps well, he finds the right spots, and he probably sits in front of the right bunch - but the tote is asking you to pay for the privilege.
2. The Big Blue (No.2) — $3.15 / $1.32 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.3% | Place: 58.8% | Value: 0.84x
Why The market's chipping away at him and you can see why, but he still needs things to land cleanly in a maiden where a fair few are trying to remember how to win.
3. Feazabeel (No.5) — $7.00 / $2.10 🏆 5TH
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 14.9% | Place: 45.8% | Value: 1.31x
Why The one with the better juice in the price - if they roll along, his softer finish can pick up the pieces and make life awkward for the shorties.
Roughie: Moordyup (No.11) — $16.50 / $3.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 29.8% | Value: 1.84x
Why Needs the race to stretch and the tempo to hold, but there's enough in the numbers to make him a live blowout if the leaders start stretching and swearing at each other.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Defiance and Poisonous in the gun and a couple of swoopers waiting to get the last look
Punty read: This is a proper pressure race, and I like that for Defiance. Poisonous gets the soft run and looks the sort that can keep going when the others start puffing, while Unleash Harry is the obvious one who'll be charging late if they overcook it. Last Apache is the roughie with blinkers on and a map that says "don't let him get loose", because if he gets a sniff, he'll make a nuisance of himself.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Defiance (No.9) — $3.30 / $1.37 🏆 5TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 26.0% | Place: 67.2% | Value: 1.09x
Why The gear change and the gelding angle can sharpen him up, and with the speed map favouring the front end, he's got every right to control the race from the right lane.
2. Poisonous (No.3) — $4.80 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.00 Each Way ($4.50W + $4.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$24.75
Prob 20.3% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 1.24x
Why Nice draw, first-time earmuffs, and the sort of runner who can sit in the box seat while the pressure goes on around him.
3. Unleash Harry (No.6) — $5.75 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.70
Prob 13.4% | Place: 42.8% | Value: 0.98x
Why The one that'll be closing hard if they go too hard too early, and the market knows enough to keep him honest even if he isn't screaming value.
Roughie: Last Apache (No.8) — $8.00 / $4.10 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 47.2% | Value: 1.55x
Why Blinkers first time on a horse that already wants to roll forward - if he finds the front without burning too much fuel, he's a live nuisance.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Mimi's and Tigletta likely rolling along and the rest trying not to get steamrolled early
Punty read: This is the kind of race where the shorty looks tidy but the value sits a bit wider. Mimi's is the one they'll all be chasing, but Tigletta has the map to make a proper nuisance of herself and Plume is the safer one for the place punters if the tempo gets a touch brutal. Ascot Green is the roughie with the inside draw and a bit of sneaky place upside if the front end gets tangled up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Mimi's (No.7) — $2.20 / $1.20 🏆 5TH
Bet $9.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 23.3% | Place: 63.6% | Value: 0.63x
Why Maps to lead or sit right on the speed and should be in the finish, but the price is pure favourite tax and I'm not here to buy that sort of lunch.
2. Tigletta (No.9) — $5.75 / $3.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.25
Prob 23.1% | Place: 63.3% | Value: 1.63x
Why The mare's got the right run profile, the right pace map and a price that says the market's still sleeping on her.
3. Plume (No.8) — $5.20 / $2.15 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 20.1% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 1.29x
Why Gets the trip, handles the sting out of the ground, and if they overdo it up front she can be the one doing the passing.
Roughie: Ascot Green (No.1) — $14.00 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 1.45x
Why Inside gate, soft-track chance, and enough map help to sneak into the placings if the speed horses start cooking each other.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but the pace disadvantage tags Cosmora and that tells you the leaders won't be getting a free picnic
Punty read: Stability is the one the market is hugging, but the price is doing that classic "too short for comfort" thing. Classic Two can roll forward and make a proper race of it, All Star is the value pest who keeps running honestly, and Cosmora is the smoky with the right shape but not enough place confidence for me to smash the button. Sunset Belle is the roughie if you want a bit of chaos in the tea.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Classic Two (No.1) — $4.40 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 19.9% | Place: 52.7% | Value: 1.08x
Why Good enough form to be right in this, and the map says he can settle handy and give you every possible chance.
2. All Star (No.5) — $10.25 / $3.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 13.3% | Place: 39.0% | Value: 1.68x
Why Honest type that keeps showing up; doesn't need a miracle, just a decent run and a bit of a gap when it matters.
3. Cosmora (No.11) — $24.00 / $4.60 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 27.4% | Value: 2.59x
Why The market says "no thanks" but the model likes the price - still, the place profile isn't juicy enough for me to go in hard.
Roughie: Sunset Belle (No.10) — $20.00 / $3.80 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 32.1% | Value: 2.59x
Why The blowout exists if this turns into a late-race scramble, but you're paying for a dream at a price that's more hope than certainty.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Toes In The Water and Waerea likely getting the right kind of run while the others try to work out who's boss
Punty read: This is a proper value race if you trust the shape. Toes In The Water maps nicely and has a stack of soft-track and distance clues, Waerea is the class act but the price is no bargain, and Valiant Bomb is the one with the map to cause trouble if the tempo gets a bit stingy. Shutter is the roughie - honest enough, but the market's gone shopping elsewhere for a reason.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.50 pool)
1. Toes In The Water (No.8) — $6.75 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$75.90
Prob 19.5% | Place: 53.2% | Value: 1.51x
Why Loves the soft, handles the trip, and should land in a spot where he can get the last crack rather than doing all the donkey work.
2. Waerea (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.50 🏆 5TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 19.0% | Place: 52.4% | Value: 0.66x
Why Hard to knock on pure ability, but the price is very much "pay up or shut up" territory.
3. Valiant Bomb (No.7) — $7.50 / $3.00 🏆 10TH
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 14.6% | Place: 43.2% | Value: 1.27x
Why The map gives him a real shot to sit near the speed and get into the finish without needing to be a superstar.
Roughie: Shutter (No.5) — $13.50 / $3.80 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 36.5% | Value: 1.85x
Why Honest, durable, and decent enough on soft ground to make a mockery of the price if the leaders aren't right on the job.
Race type: BENCHMARK 68, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, and that's a pain in the arse for the backmarkers unless they get a gift
Punty read: Goofinator is the one I trust the most because he comes through the right part of the race and has the market support to back it up. Magicon is the honest grinder who can keep the pressure on, Associate is always thereabouts and knows how to race this sort of trip, and Monty Be Quick is the roughie that can clatter into the placings if the tempo finally wakes up. Falcon Lair is the favourite, but at that price I'd rather be the bloke selling it than buying it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Goofinator (No.2) — $6.00 / $2.10 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 22.9% | Place: 61.4% | Value: 1.81x
Why Firming for a reason and the staying map looks perfect - he can sit where the race is being won and not get stuck in traffic.
2. Magicon (No.6) — $6.40 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 19.4% | Place: 55.0% | Value: 1.63x
Why Honest stayer with the right run profile; if the race turns into a grind, he's the one who'll keep coming.
3. Associate (No.1) — $4.05 / $1.55 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.60
Prob 17.0% | Place: 50.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why Solid old warhorse with a track record of being around the mark, and the inside draw keeps him in the game.
Roughie: Monty Be Quick (No.5) — $15.00 / $5.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 23.6% | Value: 1.37x
Why Needs the race to become a proper test, but if they steady up and then sprint, he's the sort who can pinch a cheque at a line-ball price.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, which is annoying for the backmarkers unless the leaders overcook it, and there are a few who can do that
Punty read: Cheeky Smirk is the one I like as the main player, but it's a skinny enough race that you don't want to go all-in on a favourite who's getting shoved around by a bunch of honest types. Your Chilli has the right profile to sit handy and be hard to knock out of the money, Fleet Flyer is the roughie with the sneaky upside if they roll off in front, and My Proclama is the other one the market keeps whispering about even though the price has started to wander.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Cheeky Smirk (No.4) — $4.80 / $1.10 🏆 7TH
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 18.9% | Place: 52.9% | Value: 1.12x
Why Has the right sort of consistency and the draw isn't ugly, but the price is short enough to make your fillings rattle.
2. Your Chilli (No.6) — $4.20 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.90
Prob 16.5% | Place: 47.9% | Value: 0.85x
Why Maps to be close enough to matter and should get every chance to run a place even if the race gets a bit messy.
3. Fleet Flyer (No.10) — $21.00 / $4.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 2.80x
Why The roughie with the profile to sneak into the finish if the front end gets a bit frantic and the back end starts clashing swords.
Roughie: My Proclama (No.8) — $8.20 / $2.40 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.0% | Place: 56.7% | Value: 2.12x
Why The market's drifted, but the underlying profile still says he's right in the mix if he gets a halfway civilised run.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Just Awesome and Dreams Of Thunder the likely burners and a couple of pace-pressing types sitting right behind them
Punty read: Fuadee is the one I want on top because the map looks bang-on and the price still gives you a bit of life. Kiss Goodnight is the obvious danger from the on-speed brigade, Tessy Tee is the honest place player if the inside holds up, and The New Sinatra is the roughie with enough late move to make the exotics sweat if the race gets scrappy. Just Awesome is the favourite, but he looks a touch under the odds for mine.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Fuadee (No.5) — $6.25 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$63.00
Prob 16.1% | Place: 44.5% | Value: 1.23x
Why Maps to get the run of the race and looks the one most likely to use the tempo rather than chase it.
2. Kiss Goodnight (No.11) — $4.15 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.80
Prob 15.3% | Place: 43.0% | Value: 0.78x
Why Fast enough to sit close and tough enough to hang on into the money; the price is fair but not generous.
3. Tessy Tee (No.13) — $5.90 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 38.1% | Value: 0.95x
Why Has some track and trip clues, but the market and the numbers aren't giving me a big enough cuddle.
Roughie: The New Sinatra (No.9) — $15.00 / $4.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 28.7% | Value: 1.73x
Why If they overdo the pressure up front, he's the one who can clunk into the finish and ruin a few clean tickets.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3,5,1 / 4,2,5,11 / 9,3,8,6 / 7,9,8,1 (192 combos x $0.05 = $10.00) -- 5% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 8,2,7,5 / 2,6,1,5 / 8,4,6,10 / 5,11,13,9 (256 combos x $0.08 = $20.00) -- 8% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 7 / 1 / 8 / 2 / 8 / 5 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Unavoidable (Race 1, No.3)✗ — $4.70
2 - Goofinator (Race 7, No.2)✗ — $6.00
3 - Fuadee (Race 9, No.5)✓ Won — $6.25
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hawkesbury's serving up a Soft 5 with showers circling like a bad omen and a storm sniffing around mid-arvo, so this isn't the day to be a hero parked at the rear with no pace and a prayer. The rail's only nudged out a touch, so I'm expecting a pretty fair deck early, then a bit more give if the sky opens up and the lane starts getting a bit chewy.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Hawkesbury, 1100m-2000m card
Rail: +2m 800m-400m, True Remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair-to-on-pace, then get a touch kinder to the swoopers if the storm lands)
Weather: Showers, storm developing, 25°C, humidity 63%, wind 9km/h WNW (watch for a late downtick in track firmness)
Early lane guess: Middle-to-lane-saving on the sprinty stuff, then fair across the card if the rain stays polite; if the storm hits, get ready for the deeper finish lanes
Tempo profile: A proper mixed bag - Race 1 and Race 7 look crawl-city, Race 2 and Race 3 have genuine pace, and Race 4/Race 8 are the messy ones where map shape will decide who gets the spoon and who gets the chequebook
Jockeys to follow:
Jason Collett, keeps popping up on live rides and knows how to lob in the right spot without making a mess of it
Tommy Berry, all over the key speed horses and still one of the cleanest finishers in the game
Zac Lloyd, drawn into a stack of the juicy rides and can turn a good map into a proper collect
Stables to respect:
Bjorn Baker (4 runners), Defiance, Poisonous, Tigletta and Just Awesome all have live claims and the barn's got the right sort of strike weapons
Annabel & Rob Archibald (3 runners), they've got a few honest sorts ready to go, and the map/fitness combo looks sharp enough
Brad Widdup (2 runners), Waerea and Stability both have that "show up and do the job" profile, even if one of them wants the price a bit shorter
Punty's take: This card's got a bit of everything - a few genuine tempo races, a couple of sit-and-sprint snags, and a nasty little minefield of shorties that look the part but aren't all bargains. Hawkesbury on a Soft 5 can be a great place to land if you're on the right part of the track, but if you're back in the queue while the leaders are stacking and packing, you're basically waiting for Godot with a betting slip.
The biggest thing today is map discipline. In the races where they go hard, the on-speed horses and those stalking just off them should get every chance; in the crawl races, the backmarkers need a miracle and a forklift. That means I'm happy to lean into the horses with the right shape and the right jockey/trainer intent, but I am not here to pay overs for unders just because a favourite has a shiny coat and a nice stall photo.
What it means for you: Be aggressive in the races where the shape and the form line up, but don't turn every favourite into a mortgage payment. This is a place day more than a win-day for me - the place lines are where the sensible money lives, especially when the favourite is skinny and the market's acting like it's seen a ghost. The roughies at the silly end of the ring? Leave them to the grubs who enjoy donating.
The best spine today is pretty simple: Unavoidable in Race 1, Goofinator in Race 7, and Fuadee in Race 9. That gives you a clean little multi with a mix of class, map, and enough juice that you're not betting for six cents and a packet of chips. Around that, I've got a couple of races where the place angle is the smarter play than trying to be a legend on the win.