No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow speed; Donatello, Circus Girl and Aurora Effect are the map victims if they get caught too far back in a dawdle
Punty read: This is the classic "who blinks first" maiden. Donatello is the one the market's already sniffing, and fair enough - he's got the class edge and Tommy Berry aboard, but from the back half of the field in a crawl, he's not exactly getting a red carpet. Scoop The Pool from barrier 2 is the little grinder who can save ground and keep finding, which is why he's the place play. Master Of War and Chaithnia are the sort of ones who need the race to turn into a mess, not a stroll, while Circus Girl is more a prayer than a plan.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Donatello (No.2) — $1.55 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$8.25
Prob 49.0% | Place: 59.3% | Value: 1.08x
Why He's been found early, the Berry booking matters, and he's got the best finishing punch in a race that shouldn't be run like a mad cut-and-thrust.
2. Scoop The Pool (No.3) — $4.05 / $1.55 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$12.00
Prob 19.5% | Place: 41.6% | Value: 0.90x
Why Barrier 2 is the gift here - he can camp handy, save ground, and if the favourites get stuck in the mud he's the one that can keep boxing on.
3. Aurora Effect (No.6) — $8.00 / $2.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 30.2% | Value: 0.72x
Roughie: Master Of War (No.1) — $13.25 / $3.90 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 23.3% | Value: 0.66x
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed; Stardust Memories looks to roll along, and the on-pace types should get their chance to pin the ears back
Punty read: This is more like a 1100m dash with a bit of bite. Mind Ya Bizz gets the right setup if Tommy Berry can keep him out of trouble from barrier 7, while Rising Revolution looks the sort who gets every chance if Tyler lands in the first wave from barrier 2. The market has had a sniff of Bold Alliance, Ho Aloha and Scuro Star, which tells you the right people think some of these can run better than their paper. Tszinsi drifting is the type of thing that usually tells a story you don't want to hear.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Mind Ya Bizz (No.4) — $2.96 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 28.1% | Place: 50.1% | Value: 0.81x
Why Genuine tempo, on-speed map, and Tommy Berry aboard - if he finds the front line early, he can make this a very awkward chase for the others.
2. Rising Revolution (No.6) — $3.30 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$10.00
Prob 24.1% | Place: 36.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why The gear changes scream intent and the map is kind enough for him to land in the right part of the race without wasting petrol.
3. Stardust Memories (No.7) — $3.42 / $1.82 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.0% | Place: 35.6% | Value: 0.82x
Roughie: Bold Alliance (No.2) — $16.00 / $5.00 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 10.8% | Value: 1.12x
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; if they loaf early, the horse with the cleanest finish gets first shot
Punty read: This one's a classic Hawkesbury snoozer early and then a proper dogfight late. Yeszem is the one with the best balance of fitness, draw and finishing ability, and Tyler Schiller should get every chance to steer clear and launch at the right time. Jonson is the obvious danger but barrier 10 means he'll need a bit of luck if they crawl, and Heard Of Him is the sort who looks a threat on paper but needs the race to fall apart a bit more than you'd like. Kuwait has got the knock-out punch if the tempo turns ugly, which is why he keeps sneaking into the wider exotics.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Yeszem (No.3) — $2.40 / $1.25 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 28.5% | Place: 56.6% | Value: 1.18x
Why Best all-round profile in the race - he's fit, drawn to do no work, and if they dawdle he gets the first proper crack at them.
2. Jonson (No.1) — $3.95 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.4% | Place: 60.6% | Value: 0.82x
3. Heard Of Him (No.5) — $3.95 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 38.0% | Value: 1.04x
Roughie: Yes Arnie (No.10) — $9.70 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 41.8% | Value: 0.61x
Race type: Class 1, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow speed; Obsidian Dream and Abandonment should get every chance if the race is not over-cooked early
Punty read: This is a lovely little speed-versus-stamina puzzle. Obsidian Dream is the horse I want on top because the map looks workable and the stable knows how to place them when there's not much pace around. Abandonment has been heavily backed and Berry's aboard, which is never a bad start to a sentence. Rose Water is the one the market keeps poking, and that's enough to respect, but the drift on Hammoon Heroine is ugly as a busted sprinkler and I'm not keen to trust her at the price. Clear Blue Day is the roughie who can clatter into the minors if the race gets messy.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Obsidian Dream (No.6) — $2.76 / $1.55 🏆 5TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 23.4% | Place: 33.1% | Value: 0.83x
Why He's the horse with the cleanest map and the best chance to sit in the right spot while the others overthink it.
2. Abandonment (No.1) — $3.67 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$17.00
Prob 19.5% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 0.92x
Why Berry gets the ride, the market has already had a crack at him, and from barrier 3 he should get every possible chance to launch late.
3. Rose Water (No.7) — $4.85 / $2.35 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.21x
Roughie: Clear Blue Day (No.3) — $11.50 / $4.40 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 38.5% | Value: 1.09x
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate speed; the on-pace runners should get their shot, but the market's already squeezing the key ones
Punty read: This is a proper little speed bath. Reign 'em In has the right map from barrier 2 and looks the one to beat if the first split isn't a war crime. Majestic Legend is the next cab off the rank and has been well found, which makes sense because the recent shape says he can be there when it matters. Radicals is the sneaky one - no fuss, new gear, and a bit of money behind him. Shinko Star is the first-up roughie, and that's exactly the kind of horse that can either look like Phar Lap or like he forgot where the track is after 177 days off.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Reign 'em In (No.6) — $3.20 / $1.72 🏆 5TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 26.2% | Place: 48.7% | Value: 0.74x
Why Maps sweet, settles in the first wave, and in a 1000m scamper that's half the battle won already.
2. Majestic Legend (No.3) — $4.08 / $2.05 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$12.00
Prob 20.2% | Place: 30.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why The market's been keen and he's got the right profile for this sort of dash - no need to be a genius when the race should hand him a crack.
3. Radicals (No.5) — $3.92 / $2.05 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 26.2% | Value: 1.06x
Roughie: Shinko Star (No.9) — $19.00 / $6.00 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.6% | Place: 12.0% | Value: 1.33x
Race type: Class 1, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate speed; Sapling should be right on the speed, with Hunter One and Turning Circle lurking nearby
Punty read: This is the race where the map does a lot of the talking. Sapling is short because he's the one that can control the shape from the front-half and still kick when it matters. Rustemo is the hard-yards horse who keeps finding the line, but the place price is too stingy to be cute. Hunter One is the little each way/value angle because if he gets a clean run from barrier 9 he can be right there late. Bikini Babe is the roughie with the ugly drift, so I'm not rushing to mortgage the fridge for him, but if the favourite falls in a hole, the longshot types can bob up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Sapling (No.2) — $1.98 / $1.17 🏆 4TH
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 29.6% | Place: 43.9% | Value: 0.76x
Why He's got the tactical map advantage and the kind of fit profile that lets a short-priced horse do his job without too much drama.
2. Rustemo (No.1) — $3.92 / $1.32 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.6% | Place: 41.7% | Value: 0.95x
3. Hunter One (No.4) — $6.80 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.00
Prob 12.9% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.13x
Why He's the value runner in the race - if the tempo is honest and he gets a tow into it, he's the sort that can pinch a place at a decent price.
Roughie: Bikini Babe (No.5) — $34.00 / $5.00 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.2% | Place: 31.3% | Value: 1.83x
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed; Magnolia Jewel should ensure this is no picnic, and the on-speed brigade will be scrapping for position
Punty read: This is the hardest race on the card to get your nose in front of. Divine Vicky is the one Punty's willing to have a crack at each way because the class is there and the race should be run genuinely, which gives the swooper a chance if the leaders go too hard or get tangled. Light Infantry is the map horse and probably deserves respect, but the price says the edge is thin. Still Alice is the seasoned type who always looks a chance until the last hundred when you realise she's doing her best work one stride too late. Gogmagog is the roughie with light weight and a cheeky profile, so if the race turns into a brawl he's the one to lob into the exotics.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Divine Vicky (No.1) — $4.85 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P) — Cashed, net -$0.21
Prob 17.3% | Place: 35.7% | Value: 1.11x
Why The map says she'll need luck, but the race shape should be hot enough for her late finish to matter if the front runners cook themselves.
2. Light Infantry (No.4) — $4.25 / $1.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 34.4% | Value: 0.86x
3. Still Alice (No.3) — $7.35 / $2.35 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 32.1% | Value: 1.16x
Roughie: Gogmagog (No.5) — $12.75 / $3.40 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 27.5% | Value: 0.98x
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow speed; Marsabit and the backmarkers are up against it if they get too far out of their ground
Punty read: The last is a proper Hawkesbury puzzle. Marsabit is the one the market keeps leaning on, but the slow tempo and backmarker pattern mean he'll need a bit of luck to unwind properly. Coto De Caza has been smashed out to $11 and that kind of drift usually makes me stare at the screen like it's just insulted my mum - but the place profile says he can still bob up if the race turns into a messy sit-and-sprint. Classic Deel and Just Shane are the reliable types who'll keep grinding, while Koning has the sort of profile that can jump up and nick a finish if the others are half asleep.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Marsabit (No.8) — $3.12 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$2.62
Prob 15.2% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 0.64x
Why He's the horse they're backing and the one with the strongest overall profile, but he'll need the race to work out because the tempo isn't handing out free favours.
2. Classic Deel (No.2) — $4.65 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.88x
3. Just Shane (No.3) — $6.70 / $2.35 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.06x
Roughie: Coto De Caza (No.1) — $11.25 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 1.21x
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 2,3,6 / 4,6,7 / 3,1,5,10 / 6,7,1 (108 combos x $0.19 = $20.00) -- 19% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,3,5 / 2,1,4 / 1,4,3,5 / 8,3,2,1 (144 combos x $0.17 = $25.00) -- 17% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3 / 6 / 6 / 2 / 1 / 8 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Donatello (Race 1, No.2)✓ Won — $1.55
2 - Yeszem (Race 3, No.3)✗ — $2.40
3 - Sapling (Race 6, No.2)✗ — $1.98
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hawkesbury's got a Soft 6 with the true rail and a bit of shower threat hanging over the top like a dodgy bloke at the TAB, so this is one of those days where map and manners matter just as much as talent. A few of these races look like they'll crawl early then turn into a sprint home, which is great if you've got the right horse and absolutely murder if you're bailed up on the wrong one.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Hawkesbury, 1100m-1800m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play on-pace but not a conveyor belt)
Weather: Shower or two, 18C, humidity 50%, wind 16km/h W (watch for gusts and a 40%+ rain poke around 1pm)
Early lane guess: Inside lanes should be fine early, but if the shower turns the screws, the best ground may end up just off the paint
Tempo profile: R1, R3, R4 and R8 look like crawl-and-sprint jobs; R2, R5, R6 and R7 bring the pressure and should sort the serious map horses from the bluffers
Jockeys to follow:
Tommy Berry, keeps landing on the right ones here; Donatello and Abandonment both get the serious Berry treatment
Kerrin McEvoy, the bloke can turn a midfield map into a winning ride if the tempo's honest
Rachel King, keeps popping up on horses that are being nibbled at, and she's got a nice mix of live rides and roughie ammo
Stables to respect:
Matthew Smith (4 runners), a proper Hawkesbury footprint today with Master Of War, Cosmic Order and Divine Vicky all worth a look if the map falls their way
Bjorn Baker (1 runner), Abandonment is the one in his yard today and the money's been keen to have a sniff
G Waterhouse & A Bott (2 runners), still a team you don't want to ignore when they bring one up fit and ready, especially in these genuine-pace races
Punty's take:
This meeting feels like a chessboard wearing muddy boots. The sprints are where the chaos lives, but the middle-distance maidens are where the smart money should be shopping because the pace patterns are pretty clear: a few crawls, a few proper cut-throats, and a couple of races where the leader gets a free lunch if nobody wants to take it up.
Donatello is the obvious headline act, but he's not the sort you just rubber-stamp and wander off for a beer. He'll need the race run properly because Hawkesbury on a Soft 6 can get ugly for swoopers if they're spotting the leaders too much rope. R2 and R5 are the good hard races where the map should sort them out, while R7 and R8 are the ones where the back half of the field can make life miserable if the front-end boys go too hard or too soft. It's very much a day for horses with a plan, not horses with a dream.
What it means for you:
Don't go feral trying to beat every favourite just because the track's a bit wet. The cleanest angles are the ones where a horse maps to either control it or get the first crack at the line. That's why Donatello, Yeszem and Sapling are the spine of the day for me: class, fit, map, and enough intent to make sense.
Where it gets spicy is the races with genuine pressure or messy tempo - that's where the place money and the each way plays earn their keep. R4 and R7 are the sort of races where you can get nicked by a drift or a bad run, so it's smarter to protect yourself than try to be a hero. And if the rain sneaks in harder than expected, the horses who can settle and quicken off a soft run are the ones you want, not the barnstormers who need every puff of oxygen in the straight.