For all of Punty's tips for Hobart, head to https://punty.ai/tips/hobart-2026-04-26

Rightio Loose Units, Hobart's serving up a Soft 5 with the rail out +7m and just enough tailwind up the straight to make the swoopers feel alive, so this is one of those cards where the map matters more than the ego. If you're parked wide, off the bridle, and hoping for a miracle, you're already in the naughty corner.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Hobart, 1100-2100m card
Rail: +7m Entire
Official going: Soft 5, expected to play fair-to-clocking-home
Weather: Partly cloudy, 19°C, humidity 47%, wind 11km/h NNW, with a bit of tailwind up the straight
Early lane guess: Stalking lanes with cover look the sweet spot; don't be married to the fence, but don't drift too wide and give away the winning shot
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - the 1200m maiden should be honest, the middle-distance races look sit-sprint city, and the late sprint should be run genuinely enough for the stronger finishers to get their chance
Jockeys to follow:
Erica Byrne Burke — keeps landing on the right horse in the right spot, and she's got live rides in the key races.
Kirra-Lee Lane — when she gets cover and a smooth map, she can time one perfectly on this soft deck.
Troy Baker — plenty of value mounts today, and he handles these grindy Hobart races without panicking like a mug with a busted slip.
Stables to respect:
J K Blacker (11 runners) — live all over the card, especially where the map and the wet-ground grind line up.
Jessie Bazan (11 runners) — has the day nicely spread with plenty of runners capable of running a cheeky race.
J L Keys (9 runners) — a few key players with the right pattern for the soft-track, sit-and-sprint style.

Punty's take:

This meeting feels like a chess game after too many beers. The soft-ish Hobart surface, the rail out, and that little tailwind straight are all nudging the card towards horses that can travel, settle, then kick - not the ones that need to be roughed up early and asked to live on a wing and a prayer. You'll see a couple of races where the leaders get a cheap run, but overall I reckon the day belongs to the horses with a proper finish and a map that doesn't look like a crime scene.

The races to get excited about are the ones where the speed is either obvious or completely bogus. Race 2 has a proper burn-up vibe with Lawrenny Boys rolling along, Race 4 looks like the staying grinder where Veins Within Rock is the one they all have to run down, and Race 8 is a sprint where the front half should have first crack. Then you've got the ugly little puzzles - Race 5, Race 6 and Race 7 - where the tempo could turn them into a pub brawl, and that's where the value lives if the right horse gets the right cuddle.

The market has already made a few calls for us: some of the obvious favourites are skinny as a fishing line, and a couple of the drifters still look the right sort if you ignore the noise and trust the map. That means today is less about randomly tossing darts and more about backing the horses who can sit in the right lane, handle the soft patch, and actually get a crack when the whips go up. If you're trying to play hero with every roughie in the book, you'll end up stone motherless and blaming the cat.

What it means for you:

This is a day to lean on shape, not shiny odds. Where the race has a clean leader or a horse with a perfect sit, you can get a bit more assertive; where the tempo is messy, protect yourself with the place line and don't get cocky with the win-only stuff. The best way to play Hobart today is to keep the anchors honest and let the value horses do the heavy lifting in the exotics.

I'm treating Race 1 and Race 4 as the backbone early, then Race 5 and Race 8 as the late-money races where the right map can do you a favour. Race 6 and Race 7 are the chaotic ones - the sort of legs that love a hard-luck story and ruin a bloke's afternoon if he gets greedy. And as always, the roughies in the ugly $20-$50 band can take a long walk off a short pier - if you want to have a nibble on a blowout, make sure you've got a proper path to victory, not just a prayer and a schooner.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.
1 - Skelmorlie (Race 1, No.3) — $3.22
Why Has the ace drawer, loves this sort of middle-distance grind, and the slow tempo means she should get every chance to stalk them and pounce late.
2 - Veins Within Rock (Race 4, No.2) — $1.67
Why The map is beautiful, the form is rock-solid, and if she gets control on this soft surface she's going to be bloody hard to peg back.
3 - Live On Love (Race 5, No.3) — $4.40
Why Fit, classy enough, and the drift has made the price a touch kinder while the race shape still suits her better than most.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~23.63 = ~$236.26 collect

Race 1 – Soft 5 sit-and-snipe

Race type: BM60, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; midfield map with no real tearaway, so the race should turn into a tactical dash home

Punty read:

This is a proper little knife fight with no speed to burn them off early. Skelmorlie gets the perfect gate and has been knocking on the door in this trip, while Elegantly Written is the honest old stayer who'll be right there if the tempo stays dawdling and the back straight doesn't turn into a dead stop. Native Clan has excuses and a decent local profile, but the weight profile says it's not exactly a happy place to cart the kitchen sink. If this turns into a crawl then sprint, the horse that settles best and gets the clearest crack wins it - not the one who's most famous at the pub.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12 pool)

1. Skelmorlie (No.3) — $3.22 / $1.70
Prob 26.1% | Place: 24.2% | Value: 1.09x
Bet $12.00 Win, return $38.70
Why Drawn to do no work, handles the surface, and the rise in trip is exactly the sort of thing that can turn a narrow loser into a winner.
2. Elegantly Written (No.1) — $2.96 / $1.55
Prob 23.1% | Place: 21.9% | Value: 0.88x
Bet No Bet
Why Honest enough and in the right condition profile, but the extra weight and the shortish price make him a bit of a trap for the win punter.
3. Native Clan (No.4) — $3.22 / $1.70
Prob 19.5% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 0.81x
Bet No Bet
Why Forgive the last run with interference in the book, but the weight profile isn't waving a giant green flag.
Roughie: High Tail Eagle (No.5) — $17.50 / $5.50
Prob 13.8% | Place: 14.1% | Value: 3.12x
Bet No Bet
Why This is the sneaky one if the race gets messy and the better-fancied types loaf around early - but the market price says you're paying for the dream, not the certainty.

Quinella Box: 3, 1, 4 — $15
Why Top three are bunched together and the pace is soft enough that the race can bunch into a photo. Box the trio and let the map sort out the order.

Race 2 – Maiden speed burn-up

Race type: Mdn Plate, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Lawrenny Boys looks the likely leader with a couple of on-speed pressure valves around him

Punty read:

This one has genuine dash on paper, which is a relief after the crawl-fest vibes in the middle-distance races. Lawrenny Boys has been bursting for a win and gets the right sort of map to either boss them or at least make life miserable for the swoopers. Too Much Too Soon has the market whispering in his ear, but he's also got to sort out the outside lane and turn that firming into a proper performance. Northern Child is the fresh one with a decent resuming profile, but in a race like this you want a horse that can hold a spot and keep rolling - not one that ends up bailed up in traffic like a bloke looking for his keys at 2am.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12 pool)

1. Lawrenny Boys (No.2) — $3.72 / $1.45
Prob 22.1% | Place: 38.7% | Value: 0.73x
Bet $12.00 Win, return $44.70
Why Bursting for a win, maps forward, and the blinkers/tack changes read like the stable is trying to light a fire under him.
2. Too Much Too Soon (No.10) — $3.22 / $1.40
Prob 17.2% | Place: 32.6% | Value: 0.85x
Bet No Bet
Why The late money is there for a reason, but the gate means he may need a bit of luck if the early pressure is real.
3. Can't Catch Chilli (No.8) — $8.25 / $2.45
Prob 15.5% | Place: 30.2% | Value: 0.93x
Bet No Bet
Why Honest enough and not the worst if the race falls apart, but he needs the right gaps and a clean run to matter.
Roughie: Tigers On Top (No.6) — $22.75 / $4.80
Prob 4.8% | Place: 10.7% | Value: 0.80x
Bet No Bet
Why Could bob up if the speed cooks the front line and the leaders come back to the field, but this is a long-shot in the truest sense.

Quinella Box: 2, 10, 8 — $15
Why It's a true speed race and any one of the three could be the one still punching at the end if the pressure gets real.

Race 3 – Maiden manners, if you can find them

Race type: Mdn Plate, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; the front half doesn't look blistering, which makes the tactical sit gold

Punty read:

This is the sort of maiden where the favourite can look like a good thing and still get turned inside out by the race shape. Symphony Queen is the classiest on the page and the winkers first time is the little spark that says the stable wants a bit more intent. Light Force and Gold Tianna are both viable because they can sit just handy and pounce when the pace inevitably turns into a jog-and-sprint. If A Queens Buzz gets the right run from the better lane and doesn't get buried, he's the sneaky type who can split them - but in this race you're really betting on who gets the least amount of nonsense.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12 pool)

1. Symphony Queen (No.10) — $2.59 / $1.30
Prob 21.3% | Place: 45.7% | Value: 0.85x
Bet $12.00 Win, return $31.08
Why Best profile in the race and the winkers first time tell you they're looking for a sharper effort from a filly who's already been around the mark.
2. Light Force (No.3) — $4.85 / $1.70
Prob 15.9% | Place: 37.3% | Value: 1.18x
Bet No Bet
Why Good enough to be in the finish if he can hold a handy position, but he still needs the race to unfold cleanly.
3. Gold Tianna (No.2) — $3.53 / $1.37
Prob 15.7% | Place: 36.9% | Value: 0.83x
Bet No Bet
Why Had a career-best fresh run and can improve again, but the price is a bit skinny for a bloke who still has to prove it.
Roughie: Raider's Own (No.7) — $14.25 / $3.40
Prob 8.8% | Place: 22.8% | Value: 0.89x
Bet No Bet
Why If the front end goes too slow and the race collapses into a dash home, he can latch on late and pick up the pieces.

Quinella Box: 10, 3, 2 — $15
Why The race looks like a tight three-way scrap on map and ability, so box the trio and let the late squeeze do the talking.

Race 4 – Staying grinder

Race type: BM72, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; this looks like a proper sit-and-kick staying race where position matters more than swagger

Punty read:

Veins Within Rock is the horse they all have to run down - the form is strong, the soft-ground profile is there, and the map from barrier 2 is absolutely chef's kiss. But the price is short enough that you can hear the bookies snickering, and that's why Happy Clan becomes the juicy counterpunch: better value, proven at this sort of trip, and the sort of horse who can sit midfield and keep trucking when the others start looking for the exit. Florence Glass has a genuine shout as the sneaky improver, while Fashion Fox is the roughie with the right sort of map if you're looking for a lunatic finish. This is the sort of race where the one with the smoothest run can make the others look like they've got boots on.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15 pool)

1. Veins Within Rock (No.2) — $1.67 / $1.22
Prob 24.6% | Place: 25.7% | Value: 0.53x
Bet $15.00 Win, return $24.98
Why The map is perfect, the soft form is live, and if she gets first run on the grind she's going to take a power of beating.
2. Happy Clan (No.1) — $6.90 / $2.70
Prob 23.5% | Place: 24.8% | Value: 2.12x
Bet No Bet
Why The value is sweet and the staying profile is solid; if the favourite gets a touch of pressure or doesn't quite handle the trip, this bloke is right there.
3. Florence Glass (No.4) — $5.95 / $2.45
Prob 17.4% | Place: 19.3% | Value: 1.35x
Bet No Bet
Why Has the soft-track credentials and the trainer-jockey combo is capable of making this look like a simple exercise if the race bunches.
Roughie: Fashion Fox (No.6) — $23.00 / $6.00
Prob 12.2% | Place: 14.0% | Value: 3.67x
Bet No Bet
Why If he lands a quiet run from the low draw and the race turns into a front-half picnic, he can pinch a slice of the prize like a racetrack raccoon.

Quinella Box: 2, 1, 4 — $15
Why The top three are clustered tightly enough that boxing them is the right kind of chaos - simple, tidy, and less likely to have you ripping up tickets by lunch.

Race 5 – Class 2 sit-and-sprint

Race type: C2, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; a muddling tempo means the right turn of foot and the right lane will matter a heap

Punty read:

Live On Love is the horse I want on top here - the drift has given us a better number, and the race shape suits a horse who can settle and sprint rather than burn petrol early. Lontano is the genuine danger for the place line because he'll be motoring late when the others are starting to wobble, and that price is a bit healthier than it should be. Crystal Moonbeam's drift is a bit of a red light, but if the race turns into a crawl and a dash he's still one of the obvious players. Tribal Council has been firming and you can see why - but he's got to prove the map and the weight don't turn him into a hostage.

Top 3 + Roughie ($20 pool)

1. Live On Love (No.3) — $4.40 / $1.65
Prob 21.6% | Place: 46.7% | Value: 1.26x
Bet $12.50 Win, return $55.00
Why Fitter again, maps for a perfect trail, and the drift has left us with a better price in a race that should suit a horse with a proper finish.
2. Lontano (No.2) — $11.25 / $3.10
Prob 17.9% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 2.66x
Bet $7.50 Place, return $23.25
Why The one you'll be saying "how the hell did that get beat" if the race gets run at a crawl and he storms home over the top.
3. Crystal Moonbeam (No.6) — $4.90 / $1.75
Prob 16.5% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.07x
Bet No Bet
Why Has the form and map to be in the finish, but the market drift means you're asking him to do a bit too much for the price.
Roughie: Mateus (No.5) — $11.75 / $3.10
Prob 13.0% | Place: 32.1% | Value: 2.02x
Bet No Bet
Why If the race turns into a tactical muddle and the right horse gets trapped in a pocket, he's the sneaky one who can surge through late.

Trifecta Standout: 3, 2 / 3, 2, 6, 5 / 3, 2, 6, 5, 9 — $15
Why This is a proper puzzle race, and the best way to attack it is to lean on the top two and let the rougher shapes fight it out underneath.

Race 6 – Chaos handicap

Race type: C1, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; this could turn into a tactical go-slow where the run, the rail, and the timing matter more than the vibes

Punty read:

This is the race where the form book and the market are having a screaming match in the car park. Blooming Edge is the one with the blinkers first time and the perfect gate, which is exactly the sort of gear/map combo that can wake one up fast if the stable means business. Star Performer has the late steam and the staying pedigree, while I'm A Machine gets the "good horse, wrong price" treatment and still has to prove he's the best of them. Whisper Of Matilda is the roughie with a real right to lob if they crawl, because when a slow race turns into a dash, the backmarker with the clearest lane can make the others look very ordinary.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15 pool)

1. Blooming Edge (No.4) — $6.75 / $2.25
Prob 16.1% | Place: 35.9% | Value: 1.45x
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), return $50.62 (wins) / $16.88 (places)
Why Blinkers first time, good draw, and the map says he gets the run every punter wants when the race is run like a poker hand.
2. Star Performer (No.3) — $8.25 / $2.60
Prob 14.5% | Place: 33.2% | Value: 1.60x
Bet No Bet
Why The freshen and the staying finish give him a real look if the others overcook it early.
3. I'm A Machine (No.1) — $4.08 / $1.75
Prob 14.3% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 0.78x
Bet No Bet
Why Honest and proven, but the price is short enough that you want the race run to suit him perfectly, and that isn't a lock.
Roughie: Whisper Of Matilda (No.10) — $17.00 / $4.20
Prob 11.2% | Place: 27.0% | Value: 2.56x
Bet No Bet
Why If this turns into a sit-and-sprint and they all go to sleep up front, the old swooper can absolutely thunder home and cause carnage.

Quinella Box: 4, 3, 1 — $15
Why It’s a proper chaos race, so box the three with the clearest winning lane and don’t get cute trying to predict the exact order.

Race 7 – Fitness test

Race type: BM68, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; if they dawdle, the right horse gets a clean shot, and if they overcook it, the swoopers get the last laugh

Punty read:

Hurricane Ketut is the one to beat on the map and recent form, but this is also the sort of race where a drift can be a warning or a gift depending on how you read it. Agnete has copped the big drift and still looks one of the main chances if you forgive the noise and trust the finish. Sky Land and Flying Billie both have enough ability to be in the picture, but they need the race to pan out a certain way - which is a fancy way of saying they can't afford to be left flat-footed. Stardarmus is the roughie who can jump into the frame if the tempo is false and the right gaps appear late.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12 pool)

1. Hurricane Ketut (No.5) — $4.50 / $1.70
Prob 18.1% | Place: 40.1% | Value: 1.08x
Bet $12.00 Win, return $54.00
Why Strong staying base, good map, and if they let him dictate terms he's the one the others have to go and catch.
2. Agnete (No.3) — $6.25 / $2.20
Prob 16.0% | Place: 36.5% | Value: 1.32x
Bet No Bet
Why The drift has knocked the shine off, but the profile still screams contender if the right ride puts him in the game.
3. Sky Land (No.8) — $7.35 / $2.40
Prob 14.1% | Place: 33.2% | Value: 1.38x
Bet No Bet
Why Keeps finding the line and the soft track helps, but he needs a decent setup to turn that into a winning run.
Roughie: Stardarmus (No.7) — $14.25 / $3.70
Prob 7.1% | Place: 18.3% | Value: 1.34x
Bet No Bet
Why If the front half softens up and the back half gets to stalk, he can absolutely nick a place like a thief in a balaclava.

Quinella Box: 5, 3, 8 — $15
Why The three most likely to figure all have the sort of finish that can cash if the race turns into a slow-motion wrestling match.

Race 8 – Sprint grenade

Race type: BM64, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Gingerson looks the likely leader, and the on-speed brigade should get every chance to make a mess of it

Punty read:

This is a fast one and the map is the main show. Material Madam is the horse the model wants on top because she can get a nice run and land right in the firing line, while Flying Concello is the classiest on paper but too skinny to be taking on faith at the price. Araya Sunshine is the swooper who can absolutely tear through them if the leaders go too hard, and Gingerson has been heavily backed for a reason - that steam looks genuine, not just bookie theatre. If the pace is hot, the horse with the cleanest forward sit and the right lane home is the one you'll be kicking yourself for missing.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15 pool)

1. Material Madam (No.2) — $3.95 / $1.35
Prob 20.9% | Place: 38.4% | Value: 1.09x
Bet $15.00 Win, return $59.25
Why Maps to get a lovely run behind the speed and has already shown she's up to this level when things go her way.
2. Araya Sunshine (No.3) — $13.25 / $3.00
Prob 17.2% | Place: 33.5% | Value: 3.02x
Bet No Bet
Why The swooper's got a real knock-out shot if the leaders run themselves ragged; she's the one that'll have the crowd yelling too early.
3. Flying Concello (No.1) — $1.77 / $1.15
Prob 15.5% | Place: 30.9% | Value: 0.36x
Bet No Bet
Why Hard to knock the raw ability, but the price is feral and you're swallowing a lot of risk for not much reward.
Roughie: Gingerson (No.4) — $10.40 / $2.40
Prob 13.3% | Place: 27.4% | Value: 1.83x
Bet No Bet
Why The market steam is loud and the map says he gets his chance; if he rolls and doesn't get pressured, he can stick around for a cheeky placing or better.

Quinella Box: 2, 3, 1 — $15
Why The race shape says the top three get first crack, so box them and let the speed do the sorting.

PUNTY'S TAKE ON THE LANES

Early Quaddie is a proper survival mission - Race 1 and Race 4 give you the tighter legs, but Race 2 and Race 3 still need a bit of coverage because the maidens are full of traps and bad decisions. If you want a crack, keep it lean and don't pretend it's a banker parade; one wrong leg and the whole thing's in the bin.

Quaddie from Race 5 to Race 8 is the bigger mug's game. Race 5 and Race 8 are playable, Race 6 is chaos city, and Race 7 is the sort of race that can slap you in the face with a drifter or a swooper. Fun as hell, sure - but if you're going wide, make sure you're doing it for a reason and not because your ticker said "yeah nah, chuck everything in."

Big 6 is entertainment only. It's one horse at a time, six legs deep, and punters have been buried in far less. If you do play it, keep the stake small and treat it like a lottery ticket with a form guide, not a retirement plan in fancy writing.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE: Races 1-4
Smart: 3, 1, 4 / 2, 10, 8, 4, 3 / 10, 3, 2, 4, 9 / 2, 1, 4 (225 combos x $0.16 = $35) -- 16% flexi
Two tighter legs and two wider ones - that's a fair balance for a card with a few honest runners and a couple of landmines. Not a miracle ticket, but it's the kind of thing that can keep you alive if the maidens don't do anything stupid.

QUADDIE (Races 5-8)

Smart: 3, 2, 6, 5 / 4, 3, 1, 2, 10 / 5, 3, 8, 4, 1 / 2, 3, 1, 4 (400 combos x $0.20 = $80) -- 20% flexi
This is the proper chaos ticket - the two middle legs are a proper shambles and need coverage, so you're paying for survival more than elegance. Good fun if you're a sicko, but it's not the sort of thing I'd be smashing the house on.

BIG 6 (Races 3-8)

Smart: 10 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 2 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2) -- 200% flexi
One horse a leg is brave, hilarious, and very much in the "you either look like a genius or a goose" category. Tiny outlay, giant ego, and about as stable as a folding chair on race day.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Tailwind straight, backmarkers get a sniff
That little tailwind up the straight is enough to help the ones finishing off, especially in the middle-distance races where the tempo can get stuck in neutral. Horses like Skelmorlie, Live On Love and Araya Sunshine are the sort who can benefit if the leaders don't get away with murder.

2 - The drifters aren't all dead, but treat them with manners
Live On Love, Agnete and Blooming Edge have all had market stories, and that usually means the layers are feeling brave for a reason. Sometimes the drift is a giant red flag; sometimes it's just giving you a better price on a horse that still maps well. Read the shape, not just the ticker.

3 - The market steam in Race 8 is the real-deal sort
Gingerson's been backed hard and the move makes sense with the map. When a horse shortens in a genuine sprint and the leader role is there for the taking, you pay attention - it's the racetrack equivalent of the Terminator saying he'll be back.

FINAL WORD FROM THE LOOSE UNIT LOUNGE

Hobart's not handing out free lunches today - you've got to earn every collect with the right map and the right price. Stick to the horses that can settle in the right lane, don't get seduced by skinny favourites that have too much to prove, and remember the place line is your best mate when the card gets messy. Gamble Responsibly.