For all of Punty's tips for Hobart, head to https://punty.ai/tips/hobart-2026-06-21
Rightio Loose Units, Hobart's serving up a Soft 5 with the rail out 3m and a proper winter chill, so this is the sort of card where map, cover and who can keep climbing late matters more than any fairy-tale junk. The straight has a bit of tailwind, which gives the swoopers a sniff, but if you overplay your hand and get trapped wide, you'll be walking home like a bloke who backed the wrong horse in the final scene of The Godfather.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Hobart, 800m-2020m card
Rail: +3m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair to slightly on-speed, with late closers getting a look thanks to the tailwind)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 4°C, humidity 90%, wind 7km/h WNW (watch for a cold feel and a bit of sting early)
Early lane guess: Middle lanes with cover look the nicest; rail saving matters, but don't ignore horses that can peel and sustain a run late
Tempo profile: Early maidens look crawl-and-sprint, middle races have a few honest maps, and the back half of the card turns into a proper scrap with a couple of speed wars
Jockeys to follow:
Codi Jordan — keeps landing on horses that map sweetly, and a few of his rides are right in the action.
Anthony Darmanin — sitting on some live chances across the card; when he gets the right sit, he can make it look easy.
Bree Temple — a handy judge of tempo, and she pops up on a couple that can nick races from the right spot.
Stables to respect:
J K Blacker (11 runners) — plenty of live bullets across the day, especially in the sprints and those messy middle races.
J L Keys (10 runners) — has a stack of runners with the right maps and enough class to be dangerous.
S Gandy (7 runners) — a few speed horses and a couple who can take advantage if the race shape falls their way.

Punty's take:

This meeting's got a real Hobart flavour about it: a few races where the favourite should be hard to beat, then a nasty middle patch where the card turns into a blender. The Soft 5 isn't a bog, but it's got enough give in it that horses need to be balanced and not just flat out like they're in Mad Max. That little tailwind up the straight is the sneaky bit — it gives the finishers a chance, but only if the leaders haven't turned the race into a demolition derby.

The early races lean towards the honest types, but the card gets spicier once the Class 1 and open company stuff rolls around. You've got a couple of smart fresh runners, a few market smokers getting punted like the bookies owe them money, and a bunch of races where the best horse isn't necessarily the best bet. That's where the pub wisdom kicks in: don't chase every drifter, don't worship every firmer, and don't get seduced by a roughie just because it's wearing a funny price tag.

What it means for you:

The cleanest way to attack this card is to keep your powder dry early, then let the stronger shapes do the work. Race 5 looks the banker of the day with Daytona Diva, Race 2 and Race 1 have enough structure to lean on, and the rest of the card is a mix of place plays, each way plays, and a few races where the best bet is probably to keep your wallet in your pocket and enjoy the show.

If you're punting like a professional sicko, think of this as a "protect the good stuff, don't overcommit to the chaos" day. The smart money is on horses that can either sit close without spending petrol or get the right run midfield with a clear path late. The multi spine is there for a crack, but the quaddie lanes are where the real sweat lives. If you want to be alive late, you need to survive the ugly races without trying to be a hero in every leg.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

1 - Daytona Diva (Race 5, No.3) — $1.56
Why She's the class act of the card, maps on speed, and already showed she can gobble up this sort of setup at Hobart. The market knows it, but sometimes the obvious one just keeps doing the business and leaving the rest of the field to argue over the crumbs.

2 - Gold Armour (Race 2, No.5) — $2.56
Why Fresh enough, maps in the right spot, and the field doesn't look loaded with knockout blows. If he holds that turn of foot he's the one who can put them away late without needing a miracle ride.

3 - Sorell Eagles (Race 1, No.5) — $2.79
Why Not the prettiest price on the board, but the horse with the cleanest overall profile in a thin maiden. If the map doesn't turn to mush, he can still simply outclass them.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~11.14 = ~$111.42 collect

Race 1 – Maiden mile crawl

Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with No.1 Alla Rustica and the on-speed types likely making it a proper sit-and-sprint affair
Punty read: This is the sort of maiden where half the field will be under double wraps waiting for someone else to make a fool of themselves. The tempo is tame, so the danger is that the backmarkers get left with too much to do, but No.5 Sorell Eagles has the best overall engine here and No.6 Timely Needs looks the right place play if the leaders don't pinch it. No.3 Called Through is the one who can run on if the gaps open, and the drifter No.9 Strip'n'tough is the roughie that only wins if the race gets properly messy.

Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)

1. Sorell Eagles (No.5) — $2.79 / $1.30
Bet $9.00 Win, return $25.11
Prob 24.1% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 0.67x
Why Best horse in the race, simple as that. He's not an each-way luxury at the quote, but he can stalk this slow crawl and put them away when it counts.

2. Timely Needs (No.6) — $3.55 / $1.37
Bet $8.50 Place, return $11.65
Prob 24.1% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.07x
Why The map says he'll be right there without burning too much petrol, and in a stop-start maiden that makes him a very sensible place anchor.

3. Called Through (No.3) — $5.10 / $1.70
Bet $3.00 Place, return $5.10
Prob 15.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.33x
Why Market's had a proper nibble and you can see why — he's been working home okay and if the speed somehow honestifies, he'll be there late.

Roughie: Strip'n'tough (No.9) — $9.40 / $2.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.85x
Why If this turns into a sit-and-sprint and a couple of the fancies flatten out, he can lob into the finish. But I'd rather save the ammo than get cute.

Race 2 – Short-course sniff test

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.4 Fuel On The Fire and No.10 Vinraam helping keep it honest
Punty read: This is the sort of race where a horse can look like a superstar for 200m and then get found out when the whips go away. No.5 Gold Armour is the one with the cleanest winning profile, while No.2 Don Turboas is the obvious market horse but the place price is too skinny to make you dance. No.6 Gold Tianna is the proper place line, and the roughie No.7 Honest Warrior needs a collapse up front to get involved.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)

1. Gold Armour (No.5) — $2.56 / $1.55
Bet $8.00 Win, return $20.48
Prob 30.9% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.09x
Why He's the one with the right blend of class and positioning. If the race doesn't get weird, he should be right in the thick of it when they turn for home.

2. Don Turboas (No.2) — $1.76 / $1.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.2% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.97x
Why Best horse on paper for a lot of punters, but the price is doing the talking. He's the one they all know about, which is usually where the sting lives.

3. Gold Tianna (No.6) — $3.31 / $2.00
Bet $3.00 Place, return $6.00
Prob 20.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.84x
Why She's the type who can just keep grinding into the money while others are hanging on with their fingernails. Not flashy, but that's how you get paid in these maidens.

Roughie: Honest Warrior (No.7) — $19.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.2% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 0.71x
Why Needs the leaders to go too hard and fall in a heap. He's a plot horse, not a bet.

Race 3 – The gears-and-blinkers puzzle

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.8 Thermal Miss and No.12 White Star Suzie advantaged if they begin properly
Punty read: This is the race where the form guide starts wearing a fake moustache and pretending to be simple. Vabuiagi from barrier 1 gets the dream run, but the hard part is sorting out which of the first-up runners is ready to fire. No.8 Thermal Miss and No.12 White Star Suzie have enough map help to be dangerous, while No.5 Poetic Light is the sneaky one with the gear change and a proper place profile if the race gets run to suit. No.10 Vabuiagi still looks the one to beat because he can roll forward and make them chase.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)

1. Vabuiagi (No.10) — $3.55 / $1.55
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P), return $15.09 (wins) / $6.59 (places)
Prob 23.5% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.05x
Why Maps to get every chance and the stable won't mind that handy draw one bit. If he jumps cleanly, he can control enough of this to make life difficult for the chasers.

2. Thermal Miss (No.8) — $3.90 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.81x
Why She has the right kind of on-speed profile for this setup, but the price isn't asking for any generosity. If she holds her spot early, she's one of the main dangers.

3. Poetic Light (No.5) — $8.95 / $3.00
Bet $2.50 Place, return $7.50
Prob 9.7% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.18x
Why Blinkers on, and that's the sort of thing that can sharpen a rough maiden up quicker than a bloke reaching for the last sausage roll. If they overdo the early gas, she'll be rolling home into the money.

Roughie: White Star Suzie (No.12) — $9.15 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 0.82x
Why First-up with a few gear tweaks and enough talent to be a nuisance if she's wound up. Wideish draw means she needs a clean peel, but she's not the worst knockout hope.

Race 4 – Class 1 scrap

Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.4 Lawrenny Boys and No.10 Outbush looking to control it up front
Punty read: Proper old-school Hobart Class 1 stuff here: a few honest types, a few who can lead, and a few who'll need gaps to open. No.2 Megalita is the one I want in the corner because the resume says second-up is his party trick, and the market has enough respect to tell you he's ready to go. No.4 Lawrenny Boys will be hard to run down if he's allowed to stack them up, while No.8 Geegees Mercedes and No.7 Bella Chinkara are the sneaky ones if the leaders go a bit hard and turn it into a staying test.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)

1. Megalita (No.2) — $4.70 / $1.90
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P), return $19.98 (wins) / $8.07 (places)
Prob 16.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why Resuming off the right sort of tune-up and the second-up profile says he can sharpen right up here. If he gets a nice trail from the barrier, he'll be right in the fight.

2. Lawrenny Boys (No.4) — $4.55 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 0.96x
Why Honest as a tax bill and can control this if the others let him. He's the kind of bloke you trust to run his race, but the price isn't throwing confetti.

3. Benefitsofmine (No.1) — $5.35 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 0.87x
Why Has the talent to be a player, but the weight pattern and the shape of the race don't scream "bank the mortgage". More of a contender than a bet.

Roughie: Nandi Clan (No.6) — $11.50 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.52x
Why If the race turns into a lead-time duel and the favourites get busy early, he can sneak into the frame. But at the price, he's a passer rather than a buyer.

Race 5 – Daytona or bust

Race type: Open, 1390m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.3 Daytona Diva and No.5 Taroona likely rolling forward
Punty read: This is the banker race of the day and it isn't subtle about it. No.3 Daytona Diva looks like the one that can go around them again, and the market has already had a proper love affair with her. No.1 Zambezi Blonde is the logical danger if she gets a cosy run, while No.2 The Real Man is the sort who can hang around for a slice. The roughie No.6 Sh' Bourne Angel has had attention from the ring, but in this field he's still more interesting than trustworthy.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Daytona Diva (No.3) — $1.56 / $1.17
Bet $15.00 Win, return $23.40
Prob 44.7% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.90x
Why She's the class horse, she's already handled the track, and she maps as the one they all have to catch. Sometimes the obvious one is obvious for a reason, and this is one of those times.

2. Zambezi Blonde (No.1) — $4.50 / $1.75
Bet $5.00 Place, return $8.75
Prob 18.1% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why Honest, in form, and capable of hanging on if the favourite has an off day. But the spot is to follow Daytona and not get greedy.

3. Taroona (No.5) — $4.30 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.01x
Why Another who can run well, but this is a day where the wallet says "pick a side". He'll be thereabouts without forcing the issue.

Roughie: Sh' Bourne Angel (No.6) — $21.75 / $5.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.13x
Why The market has had a sniff, but he still needs a lot to go right. If the front pair get tangled and the favourite underperforms, he can run into the placings.

Race 6 – 1100m dash with a bit of bite

Race type: Class 2, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.2 Gems Eagle and No.8 Hububbajahn likely forcing a genuine tempo
Punty read: This is a proper sprint where you need a horse that can jump, travel and keep coming when it gets ugly. No.1 Alpine Fury is the best balanced profile in the race, but there's enough pace around to make it a real test. No.3 Tribal Council is the honest on-pacer, No.5 Royal Detective is the one who can swoop if they burn too hard, and No.2 Gems Eagle is the roughie with enough map to be dangerous if the fresh-up vibe is real.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)

1. Alpine Fury (No.1) — $3.70 / $1.65
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P), return $15.73 (wins) / $7.01 (places)
Prob 17.8% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.90x
Why Second-up and usually better for the run, so the profile is clean enough for this sort of sprint. If he lands on the speed without doing too much work, he'll take some pegging back.

2. Tribal Council (No.3) — $5.60 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 1.11x
Why Honest as they come and maps to get a nice enough run. He's not screaming out to be crunched, but he can keep rolling into the finish if the speed is hot.

3. Royal Detective (No.5) — $7.75 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 1.25x
Why The roughest kind of swooper for this sort of race — if they go hard enough, he'll be the one getting the late look. Just needs the race to fall in a heap.

Roughie: Gems Eagle (No.2) — $9.60 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.20x
Why Resuming with a bit of market caution around him, but the trial vibes say he's not here for a sightseeing trip. If he lands handy, he can be the one who mugs a few tired legs.

Race 7 – The open highway

Race type: Class 2, 1390m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.9 Coastal Strike and No.11 Purr Sefanee likely dictating the first chunk
Punty read: This is a proper heads-and-tails race: a few on-pace runners, a couple of backmarkers, and enough class spread to make it a headache. No.1 Azonto is the locked pick because he just keeps turning up and refusing to go away, even from a horrorish draw. No.4 Bayside and No.3 Regal Hunter are the obvious keepers if you want to stay alive, while No.2 Light Force is the sneaky one if the leaders overcook it. This one feels like a scene from Ocean's Eleven where everybody has a plan until the gates open.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Azonto (No.1) — $3.60 / $1.62
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P), return $18.00 (wins) / $8.10 (places)
Prob 14.0% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 0.69x
Why Wide gate and all, he's just been rock-solid and keeps finding the line. If he gets a cart across early, he can be the one still trucking when the rest are starting to wobble.

2. Bayside (No.4) — $5.95 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.15x
Why The map isn't perfect, but the horse is honest and the right sort to land in the frame if the race gets run fairly. A very live player if the pace doesn't turn ugly.

3. Regal Hunter (No.3) — $5.60 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 0.88x
Why Has the ability to pinch a slice, but he's more of a "respect him" horse than a "go to war" horse at the quote.

Roughie: Light Force (No.2) — $9.15 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 1.39x
Why If the speed map falls apart and the leaders go too hard, this bloke can be the one that keeps grinding while the others are coughing dust.

Race 8 – Hot pace, hot mess

Race type: Class 6, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, with No.2 Restricted Access, No.14 Fluffy's Girl and No.15 Tassie Power expected to roll early
Punty read: This is the race that could get greasy in a hurry because there looks to be real heat on up front. No.1 In The Ocean is the one with the cleanest fresh profile and enough class to sit close without getting cooked. No.2 Restricted Access is the market overlay and the horse everyone will be talking about if the leaders overdo it. No.5 Thespian Waters and No.7 Kakia are the next layer, but this is a race where you want to watch the first 200m like a hawk because one early burn-up can flip the whole thing on its head.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)

1. In The Ocean (No.1) — $4.40 / $1.80
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P), return $18.70 (wins) / $7.65 (places)
Prob 13.8% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 0.86x
Why First-up profile is clean, the trial says he's wound up, and he gets the sort of run that can keep him in the hunt if they don't carve each other up too hard.

2. Thespian Waters (No.5) — $5.10 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.00x
Why Honest type who can keep showing up if the pace is strong, but the market isn't exactly begging you to bite.

3. Kakia (No.7) — $6.70 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why He'll have his chance if the speed war turns into a mess, but this isn't the kind of race where you want to get too romantic with the profile.

Roughie: Restricted Access (No.2) — $10.30 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.36x
Why The big market story in the race, and for good reason: if he gets a quieter time up front, he can absolutely keep going. If he gets dragged into a speed duel, though, he might turn into a very expensive heartbreaker.

Race 9 – BM68 closer

Race type: Benchmark 68, 1390m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.3 Flying Billie likely to roll forward and make them catch him
Punty read: Nice way to finish the day: one horse with a proper map advantage and a couple of value runners ready to swoop if the favourite gets caught in a pocket. No.3 Flying Billie is the one to beat because he can control the race and has already shown he loves this setup. No.1 Nicco The Greek and No.2 Fighting Floyd are the stalking types who can get right into it if the leader isn't allowed to loaf. No.10 Stardarmus is the roughie, but he needs the race to turn into a bit of a war.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Flying Billie (No.3) — $3.85 / $1.75
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P), return $19.25 (wins) / $8.75 (places)
Prob 15.9% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 0.87x
Why This bloke can get rolling and nick races if the others are asleep at the wheel. Hard to knock when he gets the right run and the field lets him dictate.

2. Adachi (No.5) — $6.20 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.00x
Why Sound type who can run a race, but the shape of it says he probably fills a role rather than the winner's stall.

3. Nicco The Greek (No.1) — $10.30 / $3.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.34x
Why Strong finishing chance if the pace lifts and the leaders feel the pinch. He looks the one that can be charging home when a few others are hanging on by their toenails.

Roughie: Stardarmus (No.10) — $14.00 / $4.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 0.89x
Why Needs the race to blow up and a few to stop quickly. He's not hopeless, but he's more the bloke you'd mention after a beer than the bloke you'd trust with your cash.

SEQUENCE LANES — SINGLE OPTIMISED TICKET

EARLY QUADDIE (R2–R5)

Smart: 5,2,6 / 10,8,5,12 / 2,4,1,6 / 3,1,5 (144 combos x $0.24 = $35.00) -- 24% flexi
A banker-ish R2 and R5 with two proper sweats in the middle; tight enough to have a crack, but R3 and R4 can still blow the thing to bits if the maidens get weird.

QUADDIE (R6–R9)

Smart: 1,3,5,2 / 1,4,3,2 / 5,7,1,2 / 3,5,1,2 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
Four messy legs, all of them with a chance to go sideways, so this is a proper entertainment bet unless you love living on the edge like a bloke on a busted Esky.

BIG 6 (R4–R9)

Smart: 2 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 3 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
This is basically a six-leg prayer with a tiny outlay, which is fine for a laugh but not something I'd be building the week's groceries around.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Hobart sprints can be a beast when the heat is on
Races 6, 8 and 9 all have genuine early pressure or a map that can turn fast. When Hobart gets a bit of pace on with a Soft 5, the horses that can travel and still finish are worth their weight in grog money.

2 - The ring is having a proper sniff in a few spots
Kimba, Empress Angel, Up To Tori, Fruit Of De Vine, Sh' Bourne Angel and Restricted Access all drew attention, but not every firming horse is a genius. Some are just getting backed because people love a story more than a scoreline.

3 - J K Blacker and J L Keys are all over the card
Those two stables have live runners scattered through the meeting, which is exactly the sort of thing that can make the form look busy but the race shape cleaner than it first appears. When a stable has multiple darts in the board, one or two usually go bang.

THE DEGEN DEN

That's the lot, legends — a decent card with a few bankers, a few smoke bombs, and enough chaos to keep the heart rate up without turning the whole day into a funeral. Keep the faith with the good maps, don't chase the dead set drifters just because the ticker's flashing, and remember: the card will try to mug you if you get greedy. Gamble Responsibly.