Sunday, 17 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo, with Where's The Horse likely to press on and Call Me Frosty sitting in the prime stalking spot
Punty read:
This is the sort of maiden where the market has gone full lizard brain on the short one, but the map says Call Me Frosty gets every chance if Ms Lucy Fiore can park him just off the speed and switch on when it matters. Mad Spitfire has had the cash and the inside alley, so the punters aren't asleep at the wheel there, but at $3.90 he's no gift from the racing gods either. Vervain and Rule The Realm are the sort of horses that make place punters do a little nod of approval and win punters swear into their coffee.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Call Me Frosty (No.4) — $1.40 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$7.50
Prob 43.6% | Place: 73.6% | Value: 0.90x
Why Soft track, handy draw, maps to sit in the first three without burning petrol, and this is the sort of setup where class and position matter more than bravado.
2. Mad Spitfire (No.3) — $3.90 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.2% | Place: 44.8% | Value: 0.93x
Why A real chance — but at $1.37 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Vervain (No.2) — $18.75 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 26.5% | Value: 1.70x
Why Wide-ish enough to need the right ride, but the profile says she can run into it if the speed is honest and the front-runners start wobbling.
Roughie: Rule The Realm (No.1) — $10.40 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 25.8% | Value: 1.41x
Why The last-start interference excuse is legit, and from the inside he can lob in the first four and be the one who gets the suck-run when the others start paddling.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed again, with Nistirith likely to lead and Dancewithme sitting close enough to keep the pressure on
Punty read:
This one's a proper map race. Nistirith is the one they all have to run down if she gets her own way from barrier 6, but the price has been crunched enough that you're not getting a Christmas present. Dancewithme is the market elect, but she's short enough to be a touch annoying, while Deeply Rooted is the sort of runner you don't toss out if you're looking for a place bet that can cling on after a decent last start. God's Wrath is the sneaky one at the right price if the speed line melts a bit and the drift has gone too far.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Nistirith (No.4) — $3.58 / $1.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 20.7% | Place: 40.8% | Value: 0.90x
Why She maps as the controlling speed and the stable has plenty of intent here; if she gets an uncontested lead, the others can start calling for the steward's inquiry before the turn.
2. Deeply Rooted (No.3) — $4.40 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.00
Prob 19.7% | Place: 39.2% | Value: 1.05x
Why Last run was better than it reads, the soft surface is no issue, and from barrier 1 he gets the sort of run that can turn a decent placing into a proper result.
3. Dancewithme (No.2) — $1.71 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.1% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 0.38x
Why Ticking along nicely and still the class yardstick, but the price has gone too skinny for comfort and there's not enough juice left in the bottle.
Roughie: Alotofbanter (No.5) — $25.00 / $6.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 29.4% | Value: 4.31x
Why Drifting, sure, but if the race gets messy and the leaders overdo it, this bloke is the sort who can sneak into the frame at a ridiculous number.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Diego Dynamite likely to roll forward and a few others needing luck if they're bailed up behind the speed
Punty read:
This is the race where the form guide is basically wearing a fake moustache. The Showvinist is the one with the proper closing profile if the leaders go too hard, and at the quote he's the value play I want in the middle of the card. Door Buster is a bit too short to be getting excited about, but he's still a major player on the map. Natural Gem is the roughie that could lob with a nice soft-track ride and a bit of luck, and Eevalina is the kind of drift that tells you the market has cooled but the form still has a pulse.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.50 pool)
1. The Showvinist (No.1) — $6.45 / $1.55 🏆 4TH
Bet $11.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.00
Prob 16.4% | Place: 55.0% | Value: 1.36x
Why The race shape gives the backmarker a fair crack if the speed gets silly, and the strong place profile says he can absolutely be the one flying home while the front-runners are blowing hard.
2. Door Buster (No.6) — $1.94 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 54.8% | Value: 0.41x
Why A real chance — but at $1.12 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Natural Gem (No.3) — $13.00 / $2.60 🏆 8TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 14.3% | Place: 49.7% | Value: 2.40x
Why 266 days away isn't ideal, but the soft-track record and the improvement angle are there; if the gaps come at the right time, she can run into the money without too much drama.
Roughie: Eevalina (No.2) — $22.00 / $3.60 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 42.8% | Value: 3.38x
Why Big drift is a worry, but the latest excuse was fair enough and if she gets a clean run from midfield she's not the worst horse in the world by a long stretch.
Race type: Handicap, 1625m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, so the horses with a bit of tactical speed and a good draw get first pick of the goodies
Punty read:
This looks like a race where the leader board gets rewritten mid-paragraph. Jayashree is the right horse on paper, but she's short enough that you're paying for the privilege, not the picnic. The pace is crawling, so barrier 1 and a handy trip become gold. Bravaro and Rivercrest Magic are the rougher end of the frame but both have enough condition to sneak into the finish if the race becomes a crawl-and-sprint. Mystical Wisdom has been backed, which is fine, but the map says she still needs a bit of luck unless the tempo goes sideways.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Jayashree (No.1) — $1.84 / $1.17 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 16.7% | Place: 43.1% | Value: 0.38x
Why Barrier 1 in a slow-run 1625m race is the sort of thing punters dream about and then get stitched by the drift; still, she gets every chance to control her own destiny.
2. Bravaro (No.7) — $24.50 / $4.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 33.4% | Value: 3.70x
Why A real chance — but at $4.60 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Rivercrest Magic (No.6) — $15.00 / $3.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 29.9% | Value: 1.98x
Why Blinkers off again is a little eyebrow-raiser, and the horse is better than the numbers suggest, but the map leaves him needing things to unfold nicely.
Roughie: Mystical Wisdom (No.3) — $13.50 / $3.20 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 29.9% | Value: 1.79x
Why The market has had a nibble, and if the tempo is slower than a tax refund she can bob up late, but she's still not the cleanest play in the race.
Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate speed with Prawns Eleven and Dadirra both getting the sort of map that keeps them in the hunt
Punty read:
This is a sneaky little battleground. Prawns Eleven gets the handy map and a fair setup to roll along without burning the candle at both ends, while Dont Wait For Luck is the sort of favourite that makes bookies smile because he's short enough to annoy you. Celebrity Prince is the one that can fly home at a price if the leaders overdo it, and Scottish Laird is the proper value sniff, especially with the soft-track stats saying he doesn't mind a bit of sting out of the ground. Treasured Queen has been bet up and then out again, which is the kind of market move that makes you sit up and pour another beer.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Prawns Eleven (No.1) — $3.40 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 16.4% | Place: 55.9% | Value: 0.72x
Why He's the pace-advantaged type in the right part of the track, and if Rocky can keep him comfortable from barrier 7, he's the sort that makes the rest work for it.
2. Dont Wait For Luck (No.2) — $1.93 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 47.1% | Value: 0.33x
Why A real chance — but at $1.17 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Celebrity Prince (No.4) — $12.00 / $2.70 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 12.6% | Place: 45.4% | Value: 1.97x
Why The market isn't exactly throwing roses at him, but the profile says he can lob late if the tempo is honest and the front end starts feeling the pinch.
Roughie: Scottish Laird (No.9) — $23.50 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 3.21x
Why Soft-track stats are his friend and the gear tweak could wake him up; if the race gets a bit bunched and the lane opens late, he's the one that can turn a silly dividend into a decent one.
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo again, with Monty Zoomer likely to stride forward and Secricity/Dublin Red stalking from a better spot
Punty read:
Last race of the day and it's got that lovely "someone's getting mugged at the top of the straight" feel to it. Ideally is the short-price anchor, but the market has had the same idea, so we're not exactly discovering fire there. Secricity and Dublin Red are the more interesting plays because they've got the map and the price has drifted enough to make you look twice. Top Fun has been hammered in the market, but the model isn't giving him a clean bill of health, which usually means the punters and the spreadsheet are having a bit of a barney.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Ideally (No.6) — $2.71 / $1.25 🏆 9TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 15.5% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 0.54x
Why He's the class horse in the right sort of race, and if the tempo doesn't go feral he's the one who can sit midfield and pounce when the others are flailing.
2. Secricity (No.2) — $13.50 / $3.10 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 2.33x
Why A real chance — but at $3.10 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Top Fun (No.11) — $5.60 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 35.4% | Value: 0.93x
Why The market has been screaming support, but the profile isn't loud enough to make him a saver in this setup.
Roughie: Dublin Red (No.4) — $17.25 / $3.60 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 34.3% | Value: 2.75x
Why He's got enough early pace to park near the speed and the drift has made him a much better sniff than the market quote suggests.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,6,3 / 1,7,6 / 1,2,4 / 6,2,11 (81 combos x $0.37 = $30.00) -- 37% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Call Me Frosty (Race 1, No.4)✓ Won — $1.40
2 - Nistirith (Race 2, No.4)✗ — $3.58
3 - The Showvinist (Race 3, No.1)✗ — $6.45
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Kalgoorlie's serving up a Soft 5 with the rail +6m and a card full of short-course chaos, so this one is all about map, momentum and not getting your head kicked in by a drifter with a sob story. The shorties are live in a few spots, but a couple of them are proper unders, so we're not here to lick the window and back every favourite like a mug.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Kalgoorlie, 1100m-1625m card
Rail: +6m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair to on-pace early, with the fence handy before it chops out)
Weather: Fine, with light gusts of 7.4km/h (watch for a mildly windy finish and a bit of lane bias if the inside gets chewed)
Early lane guess: Fence okay early, but don't be shocked if the sweet spot shifts a touch off the rail by the back end of the card
Tempo profile: Plenty of genuine tempos early, then a couple of races that turn into map battles rather than brute-force slogs
Jockeys to follow:
Ms Holly Nottle, keeps getting the right kind of rides today and maps to land handy on the speed
Rocky Cheung, the claim matters, especially where the tempo is honest and the weight count starts to bite
Ms Lucy Fiore, polished hoop who can steer a short-priced type or a swooper into the right lane if the gaps open
Stables to respect:
P J Fernie (5 runners), has the best mix of shorties and live maps; if he's winning one, he's probably winning an early one
Brock Lewthwaite (4 runners), a couple of runners here that can find the right trip and make noise with the claim/weight setup
P D Tapper (4 runners), a few map-friendly types and one or two value shots that can run above their quote if the race turns tactical
Punty's take:
This meeting has that classic Kalgoorlie vibe where the first question is not "who's the best horse?" but "who's going to get a decent run without copping a traffic jam?". The Soft 5 and rail out mean the leaders and the handy types should get their chance early, especially in the sprints, but once the track starts to wear a bit, the swoopers can still have their say if the tempo goes a bit mad. It's not one of those meetings where you can just close your eyes and lob on the favourite like you're ordering a beer at the pub.
There's a proper split in the card: a few races where the market has landed on the right horse, and a few where the quote is trying to tell you a lie. Call Me Frosty, Nistirith and The Showvinist are the backbone of the day, but you've also got live roughie-ish types like Rule The Realm, God's Wrath, Natural Gem and Dublin Red that are overpriced if you're happy to sniff around the edges. That's where the day gets interesting, legends.
The stable to watch is P J Fernie. He's got shorties, map help, and the sort of runners that can make punters feel very clever or very sick in about six minutes flat. Brock Lewthwaite and P D Tapper also have runners that can punch above their price if the race shape hands them the keys. In other words: don't just blindly follow the top line; read the map, respect the drift, and don't get mugged by a short one that should be longer than a pub tab.
What it means for you:
This is a day to be surgical, not greedy. The races with the clearest shape are where you can lean in harder, while the open ones are where you want value, place protection and a bit of self-preservation. If a favourite is short and has the map, fine, but if it's short and unders, don't be that bloke throwing money at a horse because the form guide had a nice font.
Use the early sprints to see how the track is playing, but don't overreact to one result like a cooked unit on race one. If the inside stays okay, the leaders and on-speed runners can nick a march; if it starts to chew up, the better-placed midfielders and swoopers can become very dangerous late. The sweet spot is finding the runners where the market has either missed the map or overreacted to a latest run excuse. That's where the value lives, and that's where we go hunting.