Saturday, 18 April 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Crudo the one the map likes best; that usually means the leaders won't be taking each other on like tag-team wrestlers
Punty read: This is a small maiden with a fair bit of dead wood, and the map says the race could end up crawling early before turning into a sprint home. Eynesbury is the obvious one - a proper anchor - but the play is whether the others can keep up when the button gets pressed. Crudo is the sneaky one if the tempo stays soft, while All Star has the inside draw and a live hoop. The Victorious has been backed like someone knows a secret, so keep an eye on the money even if the form doesn't scream it from the rooftops.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Eynesbury (No.7) — $2.58 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$36.00
Prob 33.5% | Place: 36.9% | Value: 0.89x
Why The model says she is the one to beat and the map isn't going to make life harder; she just needs to find the line without getting buried back in the mud.
2. All Star (No.4) — $3.77 / $1.90 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.2% | Place: 28.3% | Value: 0.94x
Why Inside draw, race fitness, and a clean trip put him right in the frame if the fav doesn't kick away.
3. Cellphone (No.5) — $3.30 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 0.70x
Why Honest enough and likely to be in the first wave, but the price is a bit skinny for a horse that still has a few questions to answer.
Roughie: Powerful Majik (No.2) — $31.00 / $6.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.3% | Place: 3.2% | Value: 0.83x
Why If the nose-band change wakes him up and the leaders go too slowly, he can cling on for a slice at a big price, but he'd still need the stars to line up.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Look Here advantaged by the run of it
Punty read: Hammoon Heroine is the one everybody can see, but the reason she's hard to oppose is simple - she resumes with a tidy enough record, gets a workable map, and the stable has her ready to go. Look Here is the danger if they crawl early and then sprint home, while Aladdin's Girl is the drifter that still has a live path if she settles better and doesn't get caught in no-man's land. Aida is the one at a price who can bob up if the race turns into a sit-and-sprint affair. This is less Fast and Furious, more The Office - a lot of standing around before something finally happens.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Hammoon Heroine (No.1) — $1.90 / $1.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.20
Prob 35.2% | Place: 60.7% | Value: 0.83x
Why Trialled and prepped like a mare ready to fire fresh, and from the gate she should get the soft run the race demands.
2. Look Here (No.7) — $4.30 / $1.35 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 45.8% | Value: 0.83x
Why The map favours this setup and the money has already started nibbling, so if the favourite gets dragged into a grind, this bloke can absolutely be there at the end.
3. Aladdin's Girl (No.4) — $7.90 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.29x
Why Drifting isn't ideal, but she draws to do no work and if the tempo is honest enough she can sit in the sweet spot and get her chance.
Roughie: Neferusobek (No.9) — $23.50 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 18.3% | Value: 1.14x
Why The late drift is a concern, but if the inside pair don't roll along and she settles cleaner, she can creep into the finish like a sneaky extra in a Marvel flick.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed, with Sir Les likely to take them along; Take Flight gets the best of the shape
Punty read: This is the proper speed-vs-speed setup where one mistake and you're cooked. Sir Les won on debut and can control things if he bounces cleanly again, but the model says Queen's Rhapsody is the one to trust - fresh, new yard, and likely to stalk rather than burn petrol early. Take Flight is the live danger if they overdo it up front, while Eltrum has had money talk all morning and could absolutely go bang if the race melts. Playlist is the kind of horse that can spice up a trifecta if the leaders turn it into a drag race and the backmarkers get a toe in. Very Top Gun energy here - lots of noise, one clean run home.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Queen's Rhapsody (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 34.2% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.76x
Why Fresh to the new stable, comes in off a solid pipe-opener, and the straight speed looks made for her sit-and-swoop style.
2. Take Flight (No.6) — $18.25 / $4.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.4% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 5.02x
Why The pace map is the big friend here - if the front pair go too hard, this bloke is the one that'll be launching late like a bouncer in a bad mood.
3. Sir Les (No.1) — $1.46 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.5% | Place: 25.3% | Value: 0.39x
Why Honest as a hammer and can roll along from the front, but the price is about as inspiring as a rainy pub car park.
Roughie: Eltrum (No.7) — $47.50 / $8.50 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 11.5% | Value: 5.58x
Why The money keeps sniffing around and if he gets the right tow into it, he can absolutely mug them at a massive price.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with All Machiavellian and La Bella Bondi advantaged on paper
Punty read: This race smells like a favourite trap, and the market drifts are waving the red flag like it's a Formula 1 safety car. Divine Secrets is the one with the cleanest profile, but All Machiavellian is the sneaky value bloke if the race pans out as a grind and not a dash. Smashing Time has the track record, sure, but the market hasn't exactly been throwing roses at the favourite and the overall shape says you probably want to be a little bit suspicious. Close Encounter and Butterfly Style are the sort of runners that can blow up a quaddie if they get the right run. This one has "someone's going to win at a price and ruin your afternoon" written all over it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Divine Secrets (No.6) — $3.45 / $1.25 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 29.9% | Place: 38.4% | Value: 1.28x
Why Maps to sit handy in a race where a few of the fancied ones are coughing up market confidence; if the tempo stays soft, she's the one to punch through.
2. All Machiavellian (No.5) — $12.25 / $2.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.0% | Place: 33.6% | Value: 3.50x
Why The drift is the worry, but he gets the right sort of run and this field has enough question marks to make him a serious live chance if the race becomes a slog.
3. Smashing Time (No.1) — $1.77 / $1.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 25.3% | Value: 0.33x
Why Track record is the big selling point, but the market says he's not a free square and this setup doesn't scream runaway.
Roughie: Close Encounter (No.3) — $23.00 / $3.60 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 23.7% | Value: 3.95x
Why If they overcook the early stages or the inside gets crowded, he's the one who can pop up late and make the exotics pay.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed, with Entrapment controlling the map
Punty read: Proper banana-skin race here. Entrapment is the favourite and looks the one to beat, but this is the kind of open maiden where a misplaced breath can turn your ticket into confetti. Coco Dior has been honest as anything and can be in the firing line again, while Winning Rulet is the fun roughie because the freshen-up and the price both say there is some steak to the story. Sonnig and Yes Arnie are the sort of runners you throw into the wider exotics if you think the pace gets a bit spicy and the leaders don't get it all their own way. This one's a bit Ocean's Eleven - lots of moving parts and somebody will steal the loot.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Entrapment (No.10) — $2.69 / $1.40 🏆 6TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 19.6% | Place: 41.6% | Value: 0.83x
Why Shows the speed to control the map and has the right kind of profile for a maiden where the leaders can pinch a breather and sprint off the corner.
2. Coco Dior (No.4) — $3.90 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 39.8% | Value: 0.88x
Why Honest and battle-hardened, and if she lands one off the speed she gets every chance to keep hitting the line.
3. Winning Rulet (No.12) — $14.25 / $4.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 25.7% | Value: 1.24x
Why Fresh enough to matter and the market isn't exactly ignoring him - if the race gets messy and the favourite is softened up, this roughie can absolutely punch through.
Roughie: Sirius Moss (No.9) — $10.50 / $3.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 18.2% | Value: 0.69x
Why Needs a bit of luck, but if the pace gets hot and he gets a nice trail, he can lob into the frame at a price.
Race type: BENCHMARK 68, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed, with Bold And Blazen expected to roll forward; Dumebi and Common Goal get the best of the map
Punty read: This is a nice little speed-versus-position contest where the right run matters more than a prayer and a lucky charm. Common Goal is the model's best play because the map gives him a lovely spot to stalk and pounce, while Kitty Okay is the obvious danger if the on-speed types don't overcook it. Equilibrist has the class to land in the money if he gets a clean crack, and Laurel Hill is the one at the better odds if you think the race becomes a bit of a battle down the straight. Monte Maximus is the cheeky roughie with a market telling you someone has had a poke. This is one of those races where the fence could become a freeway if they line up and let the leaders dictate.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Common Goal (No.8) — $9.10 / $2.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$34.50
Prob 24.7% | Place: 34.0% | Value: 2.86x
Why Gets the perfect map in a race where the speed should give him every chance to sit in the box seat and have the last crack.
2. Kitty Okay (No.6) — $2.83 / $1.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.7% | Place: 32.4% | Value: 0.82x
Why Honest enough to keep in the game, but the price is short and the map says a few others get the run of the race.
3. Equilibrist (No.3) — $12.75 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 25.7% | Value: 2.61x
Why The last run had excuses and the class is there if the race doesn't turn into a sit-and-hold job.
Roughie: Monte Maximus (No.10) — $15.75 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 11.0% | Value: 1.21x
Why The money has come, and if he gets the right cart into it from midfield he can surprise a few ratbags.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Tip Top Timing advantaged
Punty read: Absolute chaos special. The market has gone feral here, with half the field getting belted in and the other half throwing off smoke like an old Commodore. Silent Impact and Audenzia are the ones the money has absolutely latched onto, but Tip Top Timing is the sneaky engine room horse if you want something at a price with the right setup. Miss Hvar and Heir Jordan are the wildcards, and the deep market moves tell you this race is probably going to be decided by who gets the nicest run rather than who looks prettiest in the birdcage. Wild Thoughts is the sort of runner that can ruin a favourite parade if the leaders get soft mid-race. This is the kind of final leg that has you yelling at the TV like you're in a bad sports doco.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Silent Impact (No.1) — $16.00 / $3.80 🏆 9TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 16.2% | Place: 35.4% | Value: 3.49x
Why Heavily backed, maps to be handy enough, and if he gets the right tow into it after a solid freshen-up, he's right in the fight.
2. Audenzia (No.2) — $5.70 / $2.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 1.13x
Why Keeps turning up and the market has snapped at him, but he'll need the run of the race because he's not getting gifted anything.
3. Tip Top Timing (No.10) — $23.50 / $5.00 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 30.7% | Value: 4.28x
Why Big support, a better map than the price suggests, and the extra distance can help him stick on when others are gasping.
Roughie: Miss Hvar (No.15) — $18.50 / $4.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 21.8% | Value: 2.24x
Why If the speed is muddling and the backmarkers get the right tow, she's the one who can storm home and make a mess of the result.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,5,1,3 / 10,4,12,7,9,14 / 8,6,3,4 / 1,2,10,15,8 (480 combos x $0.10 = $50.00) -- 10% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Hammoon Heroine (Race 2, No.1)✓ Won — $1.90
2 - Queen's Rhapsody (Race 3, No.2)✗ — $4.20
3 - Divine Secrets (Race 4, No.6)✗ — $3.45
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Kembla Grange is serving up a Soft 5 with the rail True and a card that looks fair on paper but has a few landmines tucked under the rug. The straight story is this: the meeting is bookended by a couple of banker-ish races, then the middle and back end turn into proper pub-table arguments where the market moves, map shape, and a bit of trainer intent are going to separate the legends from the mug punters.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Kembla Grange, 800m to 2000m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair, but the on-pace runners with clean runs should get every chance)
Weather: Sunny, 18°C, humidity 33%, wind 9km/h SW (watch for a bit of sting being taken out of the ground, but nothing nasty)
Early lane guess: True rail, so the sweet spot should be genuine rather than a full fence advantage; get into position and don't leave yourself bailed up
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - a few slowly run races up top, then proper speed battles through the middle and a softer sort of finish in the last
Jockeys to follow:
Jean Van Overmeire, keeps landing on live rides across the card and knows how to stay out of trouble when the speed map gets messy
Rory Hutchings, good everywhere, but especially handy when the race needs a rider to time the run rather than just push the button
Keagan Latham, pops up on a few key chances and usually rides these Kembla puzzles with a cool head
Stables to respect:
Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter (5 runners), a few live maps and more than one horse with a real winning path
C J Waller (4 runners), never far away when the market starts sniffing around, and a couple of theirs map beautifully
Matthew Smith (2 runners), Hammoon Heroine and Aida give them a proper say in the first two races
Punty's take:
This feels like one of those Kembla cards where the form guide will lie to you if you read it like a bedtime story. The Soft 5 isn't a swamp, so the horses with a bit of toe can still roll along, but the true rail means you don't want to be giving away too much ground and hoping for miracles like you're in a late-night heist movie. That makes the on-pacers and the horses with tactical speed very dangerous, especially where the field size is modest and the map is clean.
The real wrinkle is the market. Race 7 has had the bookies doing the backstroke with half the field getting serious support, while Race 4 has thrown up a stack of drifters - that's a flashing orange light, not a decorative one. Meanwhile, the first couple of races look like they can be narrowed down if you're happy to trust the better maps and the stronger fresh runs. The back half of the card is where you can get hurt, so don't get all brave and start boxing the world just because you've had one coffee and feel like Wayne Bennett after Origin.
What it means for you:
Play the meeting like a sniper, not a fireworks display. Races 2, 3 and 4 have enough shape to build around the top picks, but Race 5 and Race 7 are the chaos legs that can punch a hole clean through a quaddie if you go skinny in the wrong spot. If you're looking for aggression, that's where the value sits - the roughies with a map and a reason, not the ones paying a lovely price because they're terrible. You're better off backing the horses that can sit close, travel sweetly, and avoid traffic than chasing the horses that need a miracle and a small meteor shower.
The exotics are worth respecting only where the shape makes sense. Don't go launching a circus ticket in the races where the market has already told you the story is muddy. Use the banker legs to anchor, then let one or two live value runners do the dirty work when the race shape gives them a path.