Wednesday, 29 April 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Silverwater Kid likely rolling forward; Call Me Zeus should get the perfect stalk
Punty read: This is a speed-and-position race, and Call Me Zeus looks the one they have to run down. Silverwater Kid can make it honest from the front, but the favourite should sit just off the hotfoot and get the last crack. Southern Grace is the fresh face that could land right on the speed with Nash steering, while Our Lady Peace has had excuses and the market has already started poking around. The Force Awakens and Too Her Core are the rough end of the stick, but in a race like this, if the leader folds, the backmarkers are usually making up ground too late and too wide, like a bloke chasing the last train.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Call Me Zeus (No.1) — $1.42 / $1.04 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$6.00
Prob 44.6% | Place: 61.0% | Value: 0.81x
Why The map is sweet, the gate is fine, and this mob doesn't look deep enough to make him jump through hoops.
2. Southern Grace (No.5) — $6.75 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 38.7% | Value: 1.31x
Why First-up with the tongue tie on and Nash up - if the market's right, she can sit handy and pinch a slice of the prize.
3. Silverwater Kid (No.2) — $10.00 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 35.7% | Value: 1.10x
Why Genuine speed factor, but he may be doing the donkey work for the others to pick off.
Roughie: Our Lady Peace (No.8) — $10.25 / $2.05 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 31.4% | Value: 0.93x
Why The market's had a nibble and the excuses are there, but she still needs a few things to go bang at once.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Bello Cavallo should get a cosy run, but the lack of speed makes this a patience job
Punty read: Bello Cavallo is the one they all have to catch, but at this sort of price you're paying for the name and the reputation. Cool Rupert is the sort who can lob into the right spot and be hard to hold out if they dawdle, while Setta Icon gets the nice gate and has the map to hang on to the coat-tails. Winters Kiss and Yeszem are the sort of runners who can fill the frame if the race turns into a real crawl-and-sprint, but this doesn't look like a race for wide, wild swoops unless the leaders gift it away.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.50 pool)
1. Bello Cavallo (No.2) — $1.98 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.00
Prob 31.2% | Place: 73.0% | Value: 0.80x
Why The horse to beat, but you're not getting rich here - he still has the best overall race shape and the best chance to sit in the right chair.
2. Cool Rupert (No.1) — $4.05 / $1.30 🏆 4TH
Bet $9.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 23.7% | Place: 64.8% | Value: 0.94x
Why Maps well enough in a race that could turn into a snooze-and-sprint, and the trainer's got the stable ticking over nicely.
3. Setta Icon (No.6) — $10.50 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 14.7% | Place: 47.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why Inside gate, on-pace lean, and the sort who can hang around when the others are still trying to find their ankles.
Roughie: Wee Winn (No.7) — $18.00 / $3.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.8% | Place: 14.2% | Value: 0.86x
Why Needs the race to turn ugly, but if the short-priced pair fluff around, he can creep into the exotics.
Race type: MAIDEN PLATE, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Katoto should control the story, with Rolling Home and the on-speed types getting the first shot at the line
Punty read: Katoto is the shortie for a reason, but the market's already tucked into him like seagulls on chips. Rolling Home has the map to sit close and keep the pressure honest, while Sky Deck and Unhinged are the two you'd want on the ticket if you're hoping the race turns into a tactical grind rather than a procession. Swagger is the wild card with the huge drift and the ridiculous price, but that's the sort of horse you only need if you're trying to pay for Christmas with one punt.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Katoto (No.13) — $1.84 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$4.20
Prob 33.4% | Place: 73.3% | Value: 0.79x
Why The one they've all got to beat, and the big query is whether the price has already been pinched too far.
2. Rolling Home (No.5) — $4.90 / $1.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 17.1% | Place: 50.2% | Value: 0.73x
Why Tidy profile for a race with bugger-all tempo - can sit close and make the shorty earn every inch.
3. Sky Deck (No.6) — $6.55 / $1.95 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 34.2% | Value: 1.13x
Why Good jockey, decent map, and the sort of runner who can keep finding if the favourite is under the blowtorch.
Roughie: Mortgage (No.2) — $9.50 / $2.25 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 25.1% | Value: 0.94x
Why Needs a fair bit to go wrong in front, but in a slow-run maiden that's often where the value sneaks in.
Race type: MAIDEN HCP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Artfull leading; Broadway Street gets the pace edge, while Le Smoke and Farsain are the right sort to stalk it
Punty read: This is where the day starts to get properly loose. Farsain looks the cleanest value play in the race, Le Smoke has had the market treating him like a rock star, and Broadway Street is the sort of horse that can be right in the mix if the wide gate doesn't turn him into a lawn ornament. Codename is the sneaky inside-runner who can get a cheap trail, and Fitzclarence is the roughie if the race gets noisy and a handy horse sneaks through the gaps. This has the feel of a race where you want numbers, not a hard stare at one horse and a prayer.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Farsain (No.11) — $6.80 / $2.20 🏆 7TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 20.1% | Place: 53.9% | Value: 1.02x
Why Gets the right sort of shape in a race with enough pressure to expose the pretenders.
2. Le Smoke (No.7) — $3.25 / $1.35 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.99x
Why He'll be thereabouts if the market's right, but the price is tight enough to make you sweat like a bastard in a sauna.
3. Broadway Street (No.2) — $4.95 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 45.1% | Value: 0.93x
Why Can absolutely figure if Nash gets him into a stalking spot, but that barrier means he can't afford to get caught in traffic.
Roughie: Fitzclarence (No.5) — $14.25 / $3.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 0.87x
Why The map is his friend if they overcook it up front, but he's still a bit of a throw at the stumps.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; the middle-distance types should get their chance, but it looks like a leg where positioning and stamina matter more than raw toe
Punty read: This is a proper tramp stamp of a race - long enough to hurt, not so long it turns into a pure staying test. Inspired Legend is the horse the market has latched onto, Dolce Dior keeps knuckling down like a dog that won't let go of a sock, and California Grass is the sort of roughie that can cause a stink if the race turns into a grind. Beauty Swift is the one the market's been smashing, but the layers are clearly saying "hold your horses" a touch. Luna Bay and Brok Cafe are the sort of sneaky types that can make trifectas messy if the tempo gets honest.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Inspired Legend (No.2) — $6.90 / $2.35 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 16.4% | Place: 24.6% | Value: 1.47x
Why Maps to get the run of the race and can finish over the top if they string out at the end.
2. Dolce Dior (No.1) — $7.20 / $2.35 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 22.9% | Value: 1.40x
Why Honest as a morning pie and usually finds the line; if the tempo is controlled, he stays in the hunt all day.
3. California Grass (No.4) — $13.25 / $3.60 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 20.5% | Value: 2.24x
Why Roughie with a bit of zip if the race gets strung out and the leaders are forced to work.
Roughie: Brok Cafe (No.6) — $33.00 / $6.00 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 14.6% | Value: 3.74x
Why Needs everything to fall his way, but at the price he's the sort that can bludgeon into the frame if they overdo it early.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Mrs Maree setting the tone; Bang On Time and My Proclama should get their chance, while the backmarkers need the speed to sting
Punty read: This is a lovely little map race if you like a bit of sting in the tail. Mrs Maree is the obvious pace horse and has the market support to match, but she's drawn to do a bit of work and that can make life tricky at the end. Bang On Time is the one that looks set to get the run of it and can pounce when the leaders start feeling the pinch, while My Proclama from barrier 1 gets the perfect save-the-ground setup. Ascot Green is the cheeky one for the late swoopers - huge drift in the lead-up, but the data says the market's still not fully buying the story, which is exactly the sort of horse that can make a mug punter look like a genius for 30 seconds.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Bang On Time (No.4) — $4.70 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 15.8% | Place: 42.4% | Value: 0.97x
Why Gets the better map than the favourite and should be in the right spot when the whips go up.
2. Mrs Maree (No.3) — $2.61 / $1.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 38.4% | Value: 0.47x
Why The leader, the one they clearly respect, but the price is doing the hard work for the bookies.
3. My Proclama (No.6) — $5.80 / $2.20 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 36.7% | Value: 0.99x
Why Drawn to get a soft enough run and can be chiming in late if the pace is truly on.
Roughie: Ascot Green (No.8) — $25.50 / $5.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 32.1% | Value: 3.71x
Why The drift looks ugly, but if the speed gets hot enough, this is the sort of backmarker that can steam over them like a Tom Cruise fly-past.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, but there's enough class and late speed to make it messy; More Mischief looks disadvantaged if he gets rolling too early
Punty read: This is a sneaky ugly closer. Glastonbury Girl has the blinkers off and the market's already taken a big bite, which tells you somebody likes the setup, but from barrier 13 she still needs a decent ride and a bit of luck. Pick Up The Tab is the one I like as the value play - he's got the right sort of form profile and can lob into the race without chasing the leaders' shadows. Opal Fields has been backed and has excuses in the form, while Azure Angel with blinkers first time is exactly the sort of horse that can ping forward in the ratings and make the late exotics pay. Rosa Incanta is the on-pace type from the fence and can hang around if they don't overdo it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Glastonbury Girl (No.12) — $3.90 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — Cashed, net -$3.00
Prob 15.8% | Place: 28.8% | Value: 0.84x
Why The market has come for her for a reason, but the gate means she'll need the right tempo and a touch of luck.
2. Pick Up The Tab (No.3) — $11.25 / $3.40 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 25.0% | Value: 2.02x
Why The clean value play in the race - should get the kind of run that lets him finish off without getting stuck in traffic.
3. Opal Fields (No.9) — $13.25 / $3.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 23.1% | Value: 2.16x
Why Has had enough excuses to forgive, and the money says connections are expecting a better showing.
Roughie: Azure Angel (No.13) — $9.80 / $3.30 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 21.6% | Value: 1.48x
Why Blinkers first time can sharpen her right up, and if the tempo goes dead she's the sort who can mow them down late.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 11,7,2,8 / 2,1,4,9,8 / 4,3,6,8,13,9 / 12,3,9,13,5 (600 combos x $0.13 = $80.00) -- 13% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Call Me Zeus (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $1.42
2 - Katoto (Race 3, No.13)✓ Won — $1.84
3 - Farsain (Race 4, No.11)✗ — $6.80
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Kembla's serving up a dry Good 4, rail +3m early, and a card that looks fair on paper but can turn into a bit of a bar fight once the quaddie legs roll around. No rain, a bit of breeze, and enough speed on the map to keep the on-pace crew honest without turning it into a full-blown demolition derby.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Kembla Grange, 1000m to 2000m card
Rail: +3m 1100m-W/Post, True remainder
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair with a slight on-pace lean early)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 24C, humidity 51%, wind 7km/h ENE (watch for a touch of breeze, but no rain gremlins)
Early lane guess: Inside-to-middle lanes early; leaders and handy types should get first crack
Tempo profile: Race 1 and Race 6 look genuinely run, Race 2 and Race 3 are more sit-and-sprint, and the back half of the card is where the map gets properly spicy
Jockeys to follow:
Nash Rawiller, when Nash lands on one that maps handy, he makes the race look easier than a bloke ordering chips at 2am
Jason Collett, keeps popping up on the live chances and is the sort of hoop who can turn a decent map into a winning one
Tommy Berry, perfect sort of rider for this meeting; if he gets one into the right spot, he'll do the rest with a quiet squeeze and a cheeky grin
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (multiple runners), has a stack of live hopes on the program and knows how to place one in the right race
K J Parker (multiple runners), plenty of interesting map plays, and a few of these will be given every chance
Matthew Smith (multiple runners), has the sort of team that keeps showing up in the right spots, especially when the market starts sniffing around
Punty's take: This is a track where the first turn matters, but it isn't a straight-up donkey derby for leaders only. The early sprints want a horse with some toe and a gate that doesn't leave them out in the car park; Race 1 and Race 2 should reward position, while Race 3 is the sort of slow-tempo maiden where you either trust the shorty or you go looking for a sneaky better-priced type with a softer run.
The back half is where the real cash-grab lives. Race 4 is a proper chaos handicap - the kind of race where the bloke at the pub swears he's "found the winner" and is usually three beers deep and dead wrong. Race 5 is a staying scrap with enough form lines to make your head spin, Race 6 has pace and market angles everywhere, and Race 7 looks like the sort of late quaddie leg that separates the calm punter from the bloke who starts yelling at the TV like it's the final scene of The Wolf of Wall Street.
What it means for you: Don't be a hero in the skinny races. Race 1 and Race 3 lean pretty hard to the obvious types, so they're more about keeping your powder dry than swinging for the fences. Race 2 is a sit-and-stare job - if Bello Cavallo gets overbet, there are better value ways to play the race, but the model still keeps him on top because he's the horse to beat.
The real attacking lanes are Races 4 to 7. That's where the exotic juice is, and that's where the maps are messy enough to create value if the pace folds the right way. If you're looking to press, press there. If you're looking to protect, use the shorties in the early races and let the open legs do the heavy lifting. No need to go full Mad Max on every race - a couple of disciplined plays beats spraying the card like a drunk with a hose.