Friday, 20 February 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; on-pace favoured if they don't overcook it into the breeze.
Punty read: No.10 should push forward and control his own destiny, but the danger is that a maiden doing the bullocking from a wide-ish setup can get a bit keen when the wind hits. If they run along evenly, the place value sits with the big odds boppers who can tuck in and just keep whacking away late. This is the sort of race where the favourite can be "the best horse" and still make you sweat like you've just lied to the stewards.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Rushonova (No.10) — $2.35 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$8.78
Prob 23.4% | Place: 41.6% | Value: 0.74x
Why Blinkers on and should be prominent; in these maidens you want the one who avoids traffic and nonsense.
2. Strato Ken (No.3) — $3.00 / $1.67 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.68
Prob 29.1% | Place: 29.1% | Value: 0.42x
Why Maps to be in the stalking pair; last time wide, this time can get the softer run.
3. Yukonroc (No.5) — $27.00 / $9.67 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 33.2% | Place: 33.2% | Value: 4.32x
Why Gear bouquet and barrier helps; at the price you're betting on "lands close enough and keeps coming".
Roughie: Roossis Cat (No.9) — $51.00 / $15.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 32.0% | Place: 32.0% | Value: 2.12x
Why If the fave overdoes it early, this is the one who can pinch a spot when they start paddling.
Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate; a few want to roll, but the pace advantage sits with those who can camp handy without burning.
Punty read: This is a proper open bunch. If you go chasing "certainty" here you'll end up yelling at your phone like it's buffering the grand final. I'm happy to use the top pick as a win play, but the better story is the place/value angles: a couple can tag the speed and pinch a dividend while the market argues with itself.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Ilovethistown (No.2) — $3.40 / $1.80 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 13.0% | Place: 30.8% | Value: 0.57x
Why On-pace profile, and if he gets a softer time than last run he's right in the finish.
2. Novalargo (No.4) — $7.00 / $3.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$11.00
Prob 38.5% | Place: 38.5% | Value: 0.68x
Why Better for the hitout; maps to be right at the business end again.
3. Rawabi (No.1) — $10.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 29.7% | Place: 29.7% | Value: 4.74x
Why Draw gives options; if he holds a spot and gets the right suck run, he's a big price to run top three.
Roughie: Zulu Fields (No.11) — $67.00 / $23.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 21.6% | Place: 21.6% | Value: 6.68x
Why Needs the dream track and cover, but if the leaders go too hard, he's the one who can fall into the frame.
Race type: Benchmark 60, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate; plenty with map knocks, so the ones who settle without spending petrol get the edge.
Punty read: Big field energy without a big field dividend certainty. No.3 is the top pick but don't expect a picnic from the draw; if he gets cluttered, it becomes one of those "screaming at the gap that never comes" experiences. I want No.4 as the grinder who can be close enough, and I'm absolutely respecting the roughie place profile in a race where things can go pear-shaped mid-race.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Kiss My Rock (No.3) — $4.20 / $2.07 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$24.00
Prob 12.2% | Place: 31.1% | Value: 0.70x
Why Firming and has the right class edges; if he gets even luck he's right in it.
2. Montezulu (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.83 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.15
Prob 25.2% | Place: 25.2% | Value: 1.05x
Why Doesn't need to do anything fancy; just land midfield with cover and keep building.
3. High Tail Eagle (No.6) — $41.00 / $14.33 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 28.5% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.79x
Why Massive odds for a horse who can get into the fight if the favourites cop traffic.
Roughie: Thin Red Line (No.15) — $46.00 / $16.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 14.7% | Place: 14.7% | Value: 5.61x
Why If they over-race early and it turns into a slog, he can sneak into the minors late.
Race type: Class 1, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow; this'll be about who gets cover and who gets left doing dumb work.
Punty read: If they crawl and sprint, backmarkers can look like champions for 200m and then miss by a lip because they've given away too big a start. No.5 is the top pick but she's not overs, so I'm not marrying the win price like it's a rom-com. The play is getting paid for the map: No.2 can land handy and keep punching, while the roughie has a real "blow the exotics up" path if the leaders get cute and stack them up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)
1. Miss Lyra (No.5) — $4.60 / $2.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Each Way ($1.75W + $1.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 33.4% | Place: 44.0% | Value: 0.72x
Why Fits the race shape if she finds cover; good enough to be in the finish without needing miracles.
2. Them’s The Breaks (No.6) — $4.00 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.00
Prob 33.4% | Place: 33.4% | Value: 0.64x
Why Strong late pattern, but slow tempo means we take the safer collect option.
3. Silver Grange (No.2) — $8.50 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 42.3% | Place: 42.3% | Value: 1.89x
Why Barrier helps, and the stable/jockey combo can pinch a soft run in a sit-sprint.
Roughie: Gie It Laldy (No.11) — $34.00 / $12.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 19.1% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 4.30x
Why Pace shape suits a "blend in then pop out" runner; just needs cover and a lane at the right time.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow; small field, tactical, and the favourite gets every chance to stalk and pounce.
Punty read: No.1 is short because he's earned it, but in a field like this you can get trapped taking unders and celebrating "moral wins". The smarter way: respect No.1 as the likely winner, but have a proper swing at the value runners who can pinch it if the fave hits traffic or the sprint goes weird. No.2 is the boom-or-bust roughie who turns this into a pub story if he lands one run and launches.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. Aristopolos (No.1) — $1.26 / $1.09 🏆 WINNER
Bet $2.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$0.40
Prob 39.5% | Place: 59.6% | Value: 0.64x
Why He's the measuring stick; maps sweetly and should get last crack in a sit-sprint.
2. Ramiro (No.3) — $11.00 / $4.33 🏆 4TH
Bet $3.50 Each Way ($1.75W + $1.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 9.7% | Place: 25.6% | Value: 1.64x
Why Blinkers first time and upside; if he improves at all, he's right in the fight.
3. All Intrique (No.7) — $20.00 / $7.33 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 9.7% | Place: 26.2% | Value: 2.49x
Why At the price, you're buying the "jumps, parks, and pinches it" script.
Roughie: King Candy (No.2) — $41.00 / $14.33 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 9.7% | Place: 18.6% | Value: 3.61x
Why If the fave gets momentarily bailed up, this is the one who can blow the doors off late.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow; pace advantaged to those who can sit close and not do dumb work.
Punty read: This is the "adult race" of the day: tactics, cover, and when the button gets pushed. No.1 is the top pick and deserves it, but the real opportunity is the place angles around him because the wind can make leaders fold late if they're pressured at the wrong time. No.3 is the classic "better than the market thinks" type if she gets produced at the right moment.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Magnaprime (No.1) — $2.60 / $1.53 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 28.1% | Place: 44.4% | Value: 0.95x
Why Tough, honest, and maps to get the economical run that wins these.
2. Cripps (No.5) — $3.50 / $1.83 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.75
Prob 38.2% | Place: 38.2% | Value: 0.62x
Why Winkers on and drops weight; should be right there without needing to win to pay us.
3. Ms Tasmania (No.3) — $12.00 / $4.67 🏆 10TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 39.5% | Place: 39.5% | Value: 0.64x
Why If she settles and gets one clean crack, she's absolutely in the placings.
Roughie: South Georgia (No.10) — $71.00 / $24.33 🏆 7TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 20.1% | Place: 20.1% | Value: 6.61x
Why Pure chaos ticket: needs everything to go right, but the place price is the bait.
Race type: Open, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow; heaps of backmarkers, so timing is everything and the wind makes cover priceless.
Punty read: You've got a race full of "last-to-first dreams" and that's how punters get emotionally destroyed. No.1 is the top pick but is pace disadvantaged on paper; if they walk and sprint, it's a tougher task than it looks. No.2 and No.4 are the stalkers with fewer headaches, and the market has absolutely cannoned into No.4 which tells you connections reckon she's ready to peak. Still, at this trip, I want something that can be in the fight before the corner, not spotting them six and hoping for a miracle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Crack The Shutters (No.1) — $3.40 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 14.2% | Place: 41.0% | Value: 0.63x
Why Quality and toughness; if the tempo lifts at the right time, he can still barrel over them.
2. Daytona Diva (No.2) — $3.70 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 32.9% | Place: 32.9% | Value: 1.39x
Why Gets a more workable run than the deeper backmarkers; strong "in the finish" profile.
3. Kazaru (No.4) — $4.80 / $2.27 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.20
Prob 30.6% | Place: 30.6% | Value: 0.43x
Why Monster market move and looks set to get the right trail; just needs to see it out.
Roughie: Stelletta (No.12) — $71.00 / $24.33 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 14.7% | Place: 14.7% | Value: 0.70x
Why Needs a perfect set-up, but in a slowly-run Oaks, weird stuff happens when they sprint off the bend.
Race type: Class 4, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate; plenty want to be handy, but the breeze means cover beats bravado.
Punty read: No.7 is the top pick but she's drawn awkward and the price has drifted a touch, which screams "she'll need to do some work". No.1 is the big danger with the right draw to stalk and pounce, and the place play at odds makes a stack of sense. Then you've got the true sicko ticket: No.10 at a price that looks like a typo, but the place chance says he's not completely cooked if the race turns into a speed battle and they fold up late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Lady Galadriel (No.7) — $2.15 / $1.38 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 26.7% | Place: 53.4% | Value: 0.78x
Why Honest and strong through the line; if she gets cover, she's the one they fear.
2. Mastretta (No.1) — $3.10 / $1.70 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.85
Prob 47.3% | Place: 47.3% | Value: 0.78x
Why Loves this track and maps sweet; blinkers again and tongue tie can sharpen her early.
3. Star Walkin’ (No.9) — $18.00 / $6.67 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 26.4% | Place: 26.4% | Value: 0.81x
Why If the leaders go too hard, he's the one who can be the last one still finding.
Roughie: Capabelle (No.10) — $126.00 / $7.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 19.8% | Place: 19.8% | Value: 1.70x
Why Not a win play at that number, but the place ticket is live if they overcook the first half.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 10,5 / 4,12,1,5,7,3 / 3,6 / 2,3,7,10,8,9 (144 combos x $0.42 = $60.00) -- 42% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,3 / 1,3 / 1,4,10,12,9,3 / 7,1,10,9,6,8 (144 combos x $0.36 = $52.00) -- 36% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3,6 / 2,3,7,5 / 1,3 / 1,3 / 1,4 / 7,1 (128 combos x $0.43 = $55.00) -- 43% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Rushonova (Race 1, No.10)✓ Won — $2.35
2 - Magnaprime (Race 6, No.1)✗ — $2.60
3 - Lady Galadriel (Race 8, No.7) — $2.15
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Launnie on a Good 4 with the rail barely tickled out (+1m) and a stiff ESE breeze that can make a few of these go full shopping-trolley down the bend. It smells like a "be handy, don't be heroic" kind of arvo: on-pace gets first crack, but if they overdo it into that wind, the swoopers will be licking their chops.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Launceston, 1100m, 2100m card
Rail: +1m (1300m-1100m), True remainder
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play pretty fair, slight nudge to handy lanes)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 24°C, gusts up to 27.8km/h ESE (watch for leaders over-racing / cover matters)
Early lane guess: Fair deck; winners likely from on-pace or stalking 1-off
Tempo profile: A stack of slow-to-moderate races; position and timing look everything
Jockeys to follow:
J.Allen, keeps landing in the right spots and looks booked for the "don't panic, just ride" jobs.
L.Currie, gets a few with map queries; if she finds cover early, look out late.
C.Newitt, when the tempo's stop-start, he's the bloke who turns it into a test at the right time.
Stables to respect:
J K Blacker (13 runners), absolute army across the card; if one of theirs is in the finish, expect company.
Adam Trinder (6 runners), key chances sprinkled through; when they're ready, they're bloody ready.
Trent Wells (4 runners), a couple at prices that can bob up when the race gets messy.
Punty's take:
Launceston with a light rail shift is usually a "don't overthink it" setup… until the wind turns it into Mad Max. That ESE gust can punish the ones doing the work three-deep without cover. So I'm leaning into runners that either (a) can park right on the hammer with cover, or (b) can switch off and launch once the leaders start blowing like a busted leaf blower.
Early doors, Race 1 is maiden chaos but the map says there's a path for the on-pace crew, while a couple of these are dragging big drifts like they've just been caught sneaking out of the Birdcage with a kebab. Later, you've got the Gold Sovereign (Race 5) where No.1 looks like the final boss… but the rest of the field is where the sneaky value lives if you're brave enough to stare at the big numbers without crying.
Then we roll into Race 6 and the Oaks (Race 7): both look tactically-run, and that's where riders win races. If they walk and sprint, the ones stuck giving starts will be praying for a safety car like it's Bathurst.
What it means for you:
- Don't gift money to runners likely to be caught wide with no cover in this breeze. If your pick maps ugly, consider a place play or keep it to exotics.
- In the slow-pace races, prioritise "gets to the spot" horses over "best late splits in a fast-run race" fantasies.
- Treat the quaddies as entertainment unless you're going wide in the proper chaos legs. The meeting has landmines.
PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI
These are the three bets the day leans on.
1 - Rushonova (Race 1, No.10), $2.35
Why Blinkers on, maps to be right there, and in maidens I'd rather be on the speed than writing excuses.
2 - Magnaprime (Race 6, No.1), $2.60
Why Classy, tough, and maps for the kind of economical run that wins these windy arvos.
3 - Lady Galadriel (Race 8, No.7), $2.15
Why Honest type, keeps finding, and if she lands cover from that draw she's the one they've gotta gun down.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~$13.13 = ~$131.30 collect