Friday, 12 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with You'remywonderwall likely to press on; Forbidden Desire has the map edge, Iberian Lynx is the one that can stalk it.
Punty read: This is a messy little opener where the market has already had a nibble at a few, but the heavy track and wideish gates make life awkward. Filigree Shadow is the classy enough pick on paper, but Iberian Lynx gets the softer run and that's why the place line makes sense. If the speed goes hard and the straight wind helps them roll late, the back end of the race can get messy in a hurry.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Filigree Shadow (No.9) — $3.55 / $1.37 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 19.4% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.79x
Why The market's got its eye on her and the stable has clearly shown its hand with the gear; if she handles the slop, she's right in the mix.
2. Forbidden Desire (No.11) — $3.55 / $1.40 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.0% | Place: 66.3% | Value: 0.60x
Why Maps to be prominent and has the pace to be dangerous, but the price is skinny enough to make you think twice.
3. Iberian Lynx (No.2) — $7.80 / $2.30 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.85
Prob 15.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.08x
Why Resuming horse with the right sort of map and honest wet-track profile; he can sit in the slipstream and keep rolling.
Roughie: Inarticulate (No.3) — $30.50 / $5.00 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.8% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 0.46x
Why If the race falls in a heap and the leaders knock each other over, he's the sort who can sneak into the exotics from midfield.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Azulita and Circus Circus are the main map players, with Red Rabbit likely needing a bit of luck from barrier 12.
Punty read: This one looks like the kind of maiden that tricks mug punters - a few are in the market, a few are drifting, and the wet track makes the whole thing feel like a game of musical chairs in gumboots. Azulita has the support and the inside draw, but the race shape still gives Circus Circus and Red Rabbit a proper say. Grandstraz is a monster price and a monster drift, which usually means the people closest to it aren't exactly writing love letters.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Azulita (No.1) — $4.65 / $1.70 🏆 2ND
Bet $16.00 Each Way ($8.00W + $8.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$3.20
Prob 18.0% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.96x
Why Trained to jump out and win when fresh, and from barrier 1 it gets the kind of run you want on a wet Ballarat deck.
2. Circus Circus (No.2) — $2.79 / $1.32 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.0% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.90x
Why Resumed well, looks to have improved, and the horse has already shown it can make its own luck when the speed is on.
3. Red Rabbit (No.9) — $4.75 / $1.67 🏆 8TH
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 17.8% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.83x
Why The support has been real and the old boy should be finishing off; if he gets cover and a clear lane, he can rattle home late.
Roughie: Grandstraz (No.5) — $44.50 / $6.50 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.2% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 0.84x
Why Bit of a rough old drift, but if the race falls apart and the leaders go too hard, he's the one with the profile to sneak into the placings.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Baltic likely to roll forward; Astern Fight and Gina's A Star are right in the firing line, Perlage gets the dream draw.
Punty read: This is a proper Ballarat sprint slog where the fence and the front end both matter, but the tailwind straight gives the swoopers a bit of hope if they're close enough. Astern Fight has been knocking on the door, Perlage gets the kind of run that saves fuel, and I'lberidin'shotgun is the sort of roughie who can jag a slice if the leaders get tangled. Think more Fast and the Furious than a dress rehearsal - it can be frantic early and then weirdly tactical late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($23.50 pool)
1. Astern Fight (No.1) — $4.55 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $20.00 Each Way ($10.00W + $10.00P) — Cashed, net -$2.50
Prob 16.8% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.74x
Why His first two runs have been full of merit, and from barrier 13 he still looks the one with the right engine to keep lifting.
2. Gina's A Star (No.7) — $3.38 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.93x
Why Can be in the first wave and has enough zip to make things awkward, but the gate and the pressure mean I'd rather watch the money than join it.
3. Perlage (No.8) — $4.15 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 16.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.86x
Why Barrier 1 is gold in a wet 1000m dash; if the horse jumps and finds a rhythm, it gets every chance to hang on.
Roughie: I'lberidin'shotgun (No.3) — $9.75 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.59x
Why The market has shown a bit of respect, and if the pace cooks the front runners he's the one that can slot in and finish the job.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Dreck should sit close and control it, while Ceylon Diamond and Justibella are the types to be launched late.
Punty read: This is the clearest race on the card and the one where the punters can stop holding the beer with both hands and actually get on with it. Dreck has been smashed in the market for a reason - he's the one with the map, the form, and the right sort of engine for a heavy 1400. Ceylon Diamond is the place play and Justibella can run on if the front half doesn't turn it into a crawl. If the favourite gets beat here, it'll feel like the sort of day where the TV gets turned off and nobody says anything for a minute.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. Dreck (No.2) — $1.61 / $1.09 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$3.69
Prob 46.6% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why The map is a gift and the support has been serious; if he handles the slop, he should be right there when the whips go away.
2. Wolfoffitroystreet (No.6) — $4.15 / $1.32 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.73x
Why Can grind into the race, but the setup isn't perfect enough to get me excited at the price.
3. Ceylon Diamond (No.7) — $6.80 / $1.70 🏆 6TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 16.7% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.34x
Why Shapes as the one who keeps coming when others have had enough; wet track and a solid run should suit.
Roughie: Justibella (No.9) — $9.70 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.55x
Why If the tempo gets too sleepy and they sprint home, she's the one that can get the last crack at them.
Race type: Handicap, 1500m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Hoodys Horse likely to work forward; Dancing Dolly, Big Sister Ava and Sara's Rocket all land in the zone.
Punty read: This is where the day starts to get properly tricky. The map says a few of these will be handy, but the wet track and the weight spread make it a race where a horse can look a winner at the 400 and still get folded like a camping chair by the 50. Dancing Dolly is the anchor of the race board, but Big Sister Ava and Hoodys Horse are the value angles if the leaders overdo it. There's enough pace to keep it honest, and enough chaos to keep the pub interesting.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Dancing Dolly (No.8) — $3.77 / $1.65 🏆 5TH
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 15.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.74x
Why First-up, in-form enough, and the tongue tie first time says they're not mucking around; if she handles the wet, she can be right in the finish.
2. Big Rooster (No.2) — $4.08 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.73x
Why The horse keeps rocketing home and the map isn't hopeless, but the heavy deck makes it hard to be too brave.
3. Big Sister Ava (No.5) — $8.45 / $2.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$11.70
Prob 11.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.24x
Why Fresh, nicely weighted in the game plan sense, and the sort who can keep finding when others are gasping.
Roughie: Hoodys Horse (No.12) — $9.40 / $3.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.05x
Why Drawn to get a working run and if the speed turns to sludge, this is the kind of horse that can keep boxing on.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Polished Wood leading; Dynamite Dancer gets the nice sit, Bazzar and Artistic Genius are right in the hunt.
Punty read: This is a good old short-course scrap where the early speed matters, but the heavy track stops it from being a pure burn-up. Dynamite Dancer is the right play because the map is clean and the horse has a proper first-up profile, while Bazzar and Artistic Genius can fill the minors if the leaders cut each other up. The market has had a crack at a few of them, but there's enough drift in the rest to keep the story messy.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Dynamite Dancer (No.2) — $2.84 / $1.37 SCR
Bet $8.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net +$0.00
Prob 16.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.61x
Why First-up specialist with a wet-track footprint and a map that should let it land where it wants.
2. Bazzar (No.1) — $6.35 / $2.25 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.20x
Why Resumes with a decent first-up profile, but the price is a touch too awkward to get stuck in.
3. Artistic Genius (No.4) — $5.95 / $2.20 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.12x
Why Can absolutely win if he turns up ready, but I want a bigger sign on the board before I start throwing chips.
Roughie: Polished Wood (No.12) — $11.75 / $3.50 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.45x
Why The gear changes are interesting and the fresh run profile gives him a sneaky route into the money if the speed melts.
Race type: BM66, 2036m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Winston likely to roll forward; Amleto sits midfield, All So Clear and Cachink are the swoopers with a shot.
Punty read: This is the sort of race where everyone looks a chance at the 1000 and only half of them are still in the picture at the 200. Amleto is the one I want to be with because the map is fair, the trip suits, and he's got enough staying grunt to keep grinding through the muck. All So Clear is the best value play if the race gets stingy, and Cachink is the roughie that can cause a stink if the front half turns into a demolition derby.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.50 pool)
1. Amleto (No.2) — $3.27 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.00 Each Way ($5.50W + $5.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$17.05
Prob 17.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.74x
Why Has the staying profile, the map looks fine, and the new gear should let him travel with a bit more punch.
2. High Tempo (No.8) — $3.98 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.90x
Why Honest enough and usually around the money, but the price doesn't scream "smash me over the head."
3. All So Clear (No.3) — $7.35 / $2.35 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.08
Prob 15.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.46x
Why The market has left the door open and if he gets cover early, he can keep motoring late.
Roughie: Cachink (No.13) — $10.75 / $3.10 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.68x
Why Can lob into the race with a soft run and if the leaders start feeling the pinch, he's the one that can be wound up late.
Race type: BM62, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Our Wynd Chymes is the map horse, Danzsin and Icy Pole can sit handy, Second Time is the sneaky late improver.
Punty read: Lovely closing race on paper, and the market tells you this is the one with the most obvious anchor. Our Wynd Chymes is the horse they all have to beat, while Danzsin has been backed like someone at the bagman's tent has seen the form from the future. Lantana and Second Time are the rougher ends of the map, but in Heavy 8 conditions at Ballarat, a late run with cover can still make the difference between a place and a picnic. This is the sort of race where the final furlong feels like the credits rolling on an action movie.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Our Wynd Chymes (No.8) — $2.89 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 16.5% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.62x
Why Fresh enough, map right where you want it, and if he gets a clean crack at them he's the one to beat.
2. Danzsin (No.2) — $6.90 / $2.30 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.31x
Why The market has backed him and you can see why - first-up type, wet-track handle, and enough speed to get in the race.
3. Lantana (No.12) — $5.45 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.84x
Why Can sit handy and make a contest of it, but I don't want to be forcing the issue at the current setup.
Roughie: Second Time (No.9) — $14.50 / $3.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.66x
Why If the leaders overcook it and the straight wind bites, this is the one that can come into the frame late.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 11,9,2 / 1,2,9,10 / 7,8,1,3 / 2,6,7,9,13 (240 combos x $0.27 = $65.00) -- 27% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 8,2,5,12 / 2,1,4,12 / 8,2,3,13 / 8,2,12,9 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1 / 2 / 8 / 2 / 2 / 8 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Dreck (Race 4, No.2)✓ Won — $1.61
2 - Amleto (Race 7, No.2)✓ Won — $3.27
3 - Our Wynd Chymes (Race 8, No.8)✗ — $2.89
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ballarat's a filthy old mud bath today and that's exactly the sort of card that sorts the punters from the passengers. Heavy 8, rail out 9m, and a tailwind up the straight means the swoopers get a sniff late, but you still need something that can actually swim before it gets to the last 200. This meeting feels like a mix of survival racing and a few proper banker jobs if you read the map right.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ballarat, 1000m to 2036m card
Rail: Out 9m Entire Circuit
Official going: Heavy 8 (expected to play honest but with late runners getting a tow down the straight)
Weather: Cloudy, 12°C, humidity 97%, wind 29km/h NNE, gusts 35.2km/h, feels like 7°C (watch for the tailwind straight helping closers)
Early lane guess: Off-speed runners can get home, but the best lanes look to be midfield-to-late with a bit of cover - don't overrate the fence all day
Tempo profile: Genuine speed in a few races, but the wet track turns most of this card into a grind-fest where map and fitness matter more than swagger
Jockeys to follow:
Dean Yendall, all over the sharp speed horses like Danzsin, Red Rabbit and Taglow; if he lands in the first four, he can pinch a race on the bog.
John Allen, aboard Perlage, Big Sister Ava and Our Wynd Chymes; perfect hands for a gluey Ballarat straight.
Damien Thornton, on Black Hex, Hoodys Horse and Taglow; plenty of live rides and he can snare one if the speed falls apart.
Stables to respect:
C Maher (4 runners), Dreck is the anchor and the yard's got multiple live chances across the card.
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (3 runners), All So Clear, High Tempo and Savannah Chill give them a real say in the middle and late races.
Tom Dabernig (2 runners), Astern Fight and Bazzar both map well enough to make him a threat.
Punty's take: This is not a day for pretty racing. It's a day for horses with wet-track lungs, a bit of grit, and a jockey who knows when to stop mucking around and start pushing the button. The straight wind gives the backmarkers a little lifeline, but the heavy going and that rail position mean if you get buried in the wrong spot, you can be stuck there like a ute in a paddock.
The first few races are a proper slop lottery - maidens, resumers, gear changes, and a bunch of horses still working out whether they like the conditions. Then Race 4 gives us what looks like the cleanest banker on the card, before the middle and late races turn back into a survival test. Race 8 looks a lovely closing lane for the right horse, but there's enough drift in the market to keep everyone honest.
What it means for you: I'm leaning on horses that can either hold a spot on speed or settle and sustain a run; this is not the day to get too cute with daft backmarkers unless the pace is screaming hot. Race 4 looks the clearest anchor, Race 8 gives you another strong spine leg, and the rest are more about protecting yourself with the right map horses than trying to look like a hero.
If you want to have a proper crack, keep the bankroll pointed at the Big 3 and the race-by-race place lines where the map and wet form line up. The quaddie lanes are there, but a couple of them are the sort of races that can mug you while you're still opening the tab at the pub.