Thursday, 12 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1650m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with not much genuine burn; whoever settles closest without spending petrol gets the first crack.
Punty read: This is a proper maiden soup. Plenty of these want to get back, a few have excuses, and the shorties are hardly Winx in a wig. In these slow 1650m maidens, you want one that can either improve sharply at the trip or get into the race before the dash home starts. That's why this feels more "find the safe lane" than "launch into the favourite like a maniac".
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Flop Shot (No.6) — $3.50 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$23.80
Prob 15.8% | Place: 44.1% | Value: 0.70x
Why Best exposed of the lot at the trip and that Doomben run had excuses. If Damien Thornton parks him a touch handier from barrier 3, he can just out-tough these.
2. Oakfield Galaxy (No.3) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 41.8% | Place: 41.8% | Value: 1.06x
Why Has been around the mark at 1600m and 1700m, and this looks like the kind of race where he can smother up and hit the line late. Safe play is the place.
3. Concador (No.1) — $51.00 / $6.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 35.1% | Place: 35.1% | Value: 2.90x
Why Big odds but not hopeless. Slow starts and wide runs have stiffed him before, and if he jumps cleanly he can sneak into the finish at a mad price.
Roughie: Come On Mr Snips (No.5) — $8.50 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 33.2% | Value: 1.20x
Why Only lightly raced and still has upside. If he lands a touch closer in a race with no speed, he's definitely in the blowout conversation.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Rockabilly and Majestic Louvre likely to hold the prime stalking spots.
Punty read: This looks one of the cleaner races on the card, which probably means we'll all somehow still find a way to overthink it. Rockabilly has been backed hard and the gear changes scream "righto, no more messing about". Majestic Louvre has the right draw to get a soft run, and Chop Chop Go is the rough bastard who can lob in the first half-dozen and give you something to yell about.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Rockabilly (No.4) — $2.65 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 26.0% | Place: 67.6% | Value: 0.84x
Why Drawn to do no work, gets blinkers and tongue tie for the first time, and the market has come for him with proper intent. Maps like the winner.
2. Majestic Louvre (No.2) — $3.60 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Place — Cashed, net +$0.00
Prob 66.2% | Place: 66.2% | Value: 1.41x
Why Honest type who keeps giving himself a chance, and gate 4 means he shouldn't be spotting them cheap lengths. Looks a strong place anchor.
3. Daffers (No.5) — $16.00 / $3.80 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 32.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.23x
Why Fresh horse, map advantage, and a complete gear reshuffle. Could come back improved, but this isn't the race to spray the wallet.
Roughie: Chop Chop Go (No.1) — $16.00 / $7.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 39.3% | Value: 2.33x
Why If he uses barrier 7 to slide across without spending too much, he can hang around a lot longer than the market thinks.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but it's a small NTD field so every metre matters and only two places get paid.
Punty read: This is one of those six-horse sprints where the place pool can turn into a bear trap. Supersonic Man has the draw, the weight pull and the right pattern to make his own luck. Happy Wins is consistent and Maybe gets every chance on paper, but in a field this small you don't want to be taking unders on a horse that needs things to go exactly right. It's less Avengers, more Reservoir Dogs - somebody good is getting whacked early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Supersonic Man (No.2) — $6.20 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $16.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$16.00
Prob 24.6% | Place: 46.8% | Value: 1.93x
Why Heavy support, sweet draw, and the apprentice claim helps. If he holds the box seat and gets the split, he's the value sting in the race.
2. Happy Wins (No.8) — $3.35 / $1.82 🏆 3RD
Bet $9.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.10
Prob 41.0% | Place: 41.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why Lightly raced, honest, and she should be in the firing line again. Not a race to get flashy - place is the sensible lane.
3. Maybe (No.4) — $3.60 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.6% | Place: 33.6% | Value: 0.81x
Why Gollan runner with pace help, so you absolutely respect her, but she's short enough for a race with zero room for error.
Roughie: Moet At Midnight (No.7) — $10.00 / $3.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 36.0% | Value: 2.26x
Why If the favourites get into a little tactical staring contest, this old marvel can be the one grinding into the minors or better.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but again a small NTD field where early position is gold and traffic can kill you dead.
Punty read: I'm Zac is the obvious horse and might simply be too good, but he's no picnic at the price given he's a get-back type in a seven-horse race. Keiko Say has been smashed in betting, loves 1200m and handles the sting out of the ground. Bring Me Saki is the naughty price horse - the kind that ruins your day if you leave him out, then refuses to buy you a beer after.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. I'm Zac (No.6) — $2.46 / $1.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$31.50
Prob 24.3% | Place: 46.4% | Value: 0.77x
Why Classy enough for this, gets Mallyon, and if the pace is solid enough he can swoop over them. Just needs the race run to suit.
2. Keiko Say (No.7) — $5.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 45.3% | Place: 45.3% | Value: 1.93x
Why Heavy support, good soft-track profile, and 1200m is absolutely her go. Looks a lovely place setup in a thin field.
3. The Hamo (No.3) — $4.70 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.1% | Place: 30.1% | Value: 1.10x
Why Slow-start excuse last time and good enough form around this grade. One for the wider savers, not the main plunge.
Roughie: Bring Me Saki (No.5) — $8.20 / $3.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 35.2% | Value: 1.84x
Why If the hot jockey can keep him close enough without burning fuel, he's the blowout that makes the bookies spill their coffee.
Race type: Benchmark 60, 2450m
Map & tempo: Slow pace and that's the whole bloody story - if you're too far back, you may as well bring a telescope.
Punty read: Stayers at Beaudesert in a crawl is the racing version of trying to overtake a caravan on a single-lane road. Vermilion Kirin maps beautifully for it and Will It Snow has the recent form to keep punching, but this is not the race to blindly back a backmarker who needs a meltdown. Justice Served is the old hand, Papal Miss is the roughie with a case, and if they stack up mid-race this could look like a bunch sprint with beards.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Will It Snow (No.3) — $3.40 / $3.60 🏆 2ND
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 21.7% | Place: 57.5% | Value: 0.93x
Why Winning form, handles soft ground, and gets a handy claim. If he can settle a pair closer than expected, he's the one they all have to hold out.
2. Vermilion Kirin (No.5) — $3.17 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.20
Prob 53.7% | Place: 53.7% | Value: 1.09x
Why The map horse. On-pace in a staying race with bugger-all tempo is about as appealing as free beer.
3. Justice Served (No.1) — $12.00 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 31.5% | Place: 31.5% | Value: 1.29x
Why Tough old bugger with enough staying form to get involved if the race turns into a grind rather than a sit-sprint.
Roughie: Papal Miss (No.10) — $9.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 41.2% | Value: 1.55x
Why If they overdo the waiting game and the run opens at the right time, she can be charging into the finish like she just heard the bar's about to shut.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1650m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Power Ace likely to roll; finally a race where the pressure should sort the wheat from the dribblers.
Punty read: Here's your chaos leg. The market's gone shopping in every aisle - Yukanuma crunched, Sir Beveridge crunched, Shape Of Water crunched, Power Ace crunched. Meanwhile Possibilities is the obvious class horse and Rashford gets a gear tweak with visors going on. This is the race where every punter in Queensland thinks they've found the hidden one, which usually means half of us are dead by the 600m.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Possibilities (No.11) — $2.05 / $3.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 34.7% | Place: 60.7% | Value: 0.86x
Why Hard to knock the consistency and he lands in the right race to finally get another one. Doesn't need to improve much to win.
2. Rashford (No.3) — $3.70 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 35.7% | Place: 35.7% | Value: 0.80x
Why Visors go on, gets a lovely draw, and he had excuses last time. Definitely one of the live hopes even if the staking says hands off.
3. Yukanuma (No.2) — $25.00 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.9% | Place: 30.9% | Value: 2.30x
Why The market support is impossible to ignore, and if he gets the right run in the first half, he's the chaos horse that can turn this race upside down.
Roughie: Sir Beveridge (No.4) — $16.00 / $6.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 10.8% | Value: 0.94x
Why Held up and not tested last time, and if the speed gets genuine enough he's the sneaky late rattler at a silly price.
Race type: Handicap, 1650m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with a few wanting handy spots; wide-open closer where luck in running will decide who gets to shout at the TV.
Punty read: This is a proper closer's trap. Cavaretta is the top rater, Skorpios Isle gets the sweet draw and tactical edge, The Wellian has enough speed to be a pest, and Gavin is the roughie that could make everyone feel either very smart or very stupid. In other words, a classic last where punters who've had a good day try to turn it into a great one, and punters who've had a bad day try to get square. That's how mortgages disappear.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Cavaretta (No.9) — $4.40 / $2.90 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 18.3% | Place: 49.5% | Value: 1.03x
Why Waller horse with upside and enough class to absorb a slightly awkward race shape. If she gets the gaps, she can blouse them late.
2. Skorpios Isle (No.3) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 45.0% | Place: 45.0% | Value: 1.22x
Why Barrier 2, tactical speed, and proven at the trip. That's a lovely recipe in a race where half of them will be hunting runs at the wrong time.
3. The Wellian (No.13) — $10.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 34.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.43x
Why Early speed and enough grit to hang around if the race turns tactical. Definitely one for the wider numbers.
Roughie: Gavin (No.1) — $13.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.57x
Why Maps to get the right run and the price is far fatter than his actual chance if he handles the run of the race.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,7,5,3 / 3,5,1,10 / 11,3,2 / 9,3,13,1 (192 combos x $0.30 = $57.60) -- 30% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Rockabilly (Race 2, No.4) — $2.65
2 - Supersonic Man (Race 3, No.2) — $6.20
3 - Possibilities (Race 6, No.11)✗ — $2.05
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Beaudesert's on a Soft 6 with the cutaway ready to do its thing, the sun belting down, and a card full of races that look like they'll be run at the sort of speed your uncle uses when he says he's "just ducking to Bunnings". That means map matters, patience matters, and if your jockey gets bailed up on the fence turning for home, you'll be swearing like a bloke who just dropped his last schooner.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Beaudesert, 1200-2450m card
Rail: +2m 1000m-225m; Cutaway applies; True Remainder
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play fair early, then edge toward on-pace/stalkers if it dries)
Weather: Sunny, 30C, light WNW breeze (watch for the track improving through the arvo)
Early lane guess: Inside okay early, but the cutaway should let runners peel and build from the bend
Tempo profile: Plenty of moderate-to-slow maps early, one real staying crawl in Race 5, then proper pressure shows up in Race 6
Jockeys to follow:
Leah Martyn, big book and she's landed on a stack of live hopes, especially through the middle-distance races where patience wins the money.
Andrew Mallyon, strong hand all day and he picks up several of the obvious chances that map to get every possible favour.
Cejay Graham, if the races are run soft, she's the sort of hoop who can nick one before the chasers know what's happened.
Stables to respect:
T J Gollan (4 runners), proper spread across the card and they've all got a reason to be there, not just making up the numbers.
C J Waller (3 runners), class stable, but a couple are short enough to make you check your wallet twice.
Chris & Corey Munce (3 runners), live in the right races, and their horses usually know what end of the track they're meant to run toward.
Punty's take: Beaudesert today looks like one of those meetings where the formguide alone will get you half the way there, but the map will get you paid. There are a heap of races where nobody wants to burn early, which is how you end up with leaders pinching cheap sectionals and backmarkers doing their best dramatic Braveheart charge when the war's already over. The cutaway stops it being a total rails-and-ladders circus, but if you're spotting them six lengths in a dawdle, good bloody luck.
The first half of the day is full of these "who actually wants the race?" set-ups. Race 1 is a maiden with more questions than a Senate hearing, and I'd be very careful diving into the shortest ones just because they're from big barns. Race 2, on the other hand, looks much cleaner: Rockabilly has been backed like the stable's already picked the wallpaper, and the gear changes make sense. Race 3 and Race 4 are those nasty NTD jobs where only two places get paid, so if you're playing place-heavy, don't get cute and forget the rules of the battlefield.
Then the meeting gets properly weird. Race 5 is a staying race with a slow map, which means if your stayer can't hold a spot, they're basically trying to win a marathon after lining up at the pie van first. Race 6 is the market-meltdown race: horses crunched, prices moving, punters throwing darts, total carnage. Race 7 is the classic Beaudesert closer where five or six of them can win if they get the right run, so don't go doing your tits chasing one "moral" that doesn't exist.
What it means for you: Play it like a smart sicko, not a cowboy. The place bets are your bread and butter in the tighter races, especially where the map says a horse lands in the first four and gets first crack. If a favourite is short and the tempo works against it, don't marry it. Smile politely, back around it, and move on. That's especially true with a couple of these market elects who are getting treated like they've already bolted in when they've still got traffic, tempo and Beaudesert nonsense to deal with.
The staying race is a spot to be tactical, not heroic. Race 5 could turn into a sit-sprint, so favour runners that can race handy or at least move before the 600m instead of needing Moses to part the field. Race 6 is the danger leg for multis and quaddies - the market support is real, but it's spread around like gossip at a country wedding. Don't try to be a hero there with one out unless you've fully cooked your brain.
So the game plan is simple: respect the maps, trust the horses who can hold position, use place bets where the race shape is murky, and don't get sucked into every sexy market move like it's Margot Robbie walking past the beer line. There's money here if you're disciplined. There's also a cliff if you're not.