Thursday, 12 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.8 Final Flush rolls forward, No.1 Bondi Business presses across, and a few of these will get their chance from handy spots.
Punty read: This is a classic early-card Pinjarra riddle: the backed horse has the talent, but the map asks a question. No.1 Bondi Business has been lopped from the opening quote and clearly has the best exposed engine, but barrier 10 means Whiting has to be cute, not brutal. No.4 Arrangement is the interesting fresh face with gear changes and trials that say "don't ignore me", while No.5 Classic Poetry is the hard-luck merchant if you want something at a price. If Bondi Business gets a clean smother into the race, he should take beating. If not, this turns into a pub brawl late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Bondi Business (No.1) — $3.20 / $1.37 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 23.2% | Place: 59.7% | Value: 0.95x
Why Best form on paper, backed like the stable has found religion, and the 1400m looks right in his wheelhouse if he doesn't get posted deep.
2. Arrangement (No.4) — $4.40 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 47.8% | Place: 47.8% | Value: 1.02x
Why Fresh horse with gear changes, strong trial signs and Brad Parnham steering - just looks the sort to lob handy and run a race first go.
3. Twelve Score (No.2) — $81.00 / $8.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.8% | Place: 33.8% | Value: 3.48x
Why Total dart throw stuff, but the gear changes and the silly quote mean he only has to improve a little to look enormous overs.
Roughie: Classic Poetry (No.5) — $20.00 / $4.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 20.2% | Value: 1.55x
Why Had genuine excuses last start and if the gaps come at the right time, this old battler can absolutely clunk into the finish.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.3 Jesa Lupa should be up there, but nothing looks desperate to burn the paint off the rail.
Punty read: Proper swamp of a maiden, this. No.6 Oscars No Grouch is the favourite and clearly has ability, but he's short enough for a horse still learning his craft. No.1 Extreme Ruler is the honest grinder who keeps finding one or two better, but today he maps into the race and gets another chance to stop being everyone's annoying place dividend. No.3 Jesa Lupa gets Pike and blinkers first time, which is the sort of combo that makes bookies reach for the antacid. Wide race, loose race, don't go buying a speedboat off it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Oscars No Grouch (No.6) — $2.80 / $1.35 🏆 4TH
Bet $8.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 18.3% | Place: 50.2% | Value: 0.65x
Why Lightly raced, still improving, and only needs a clean run midfield to be right in the fight. The knock is the price, not the horse.
2. Extreme Ruler (No.1) — $7.50 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 45.3% | Place: 45.3% | Value: 1.36x
Why Honest as a tax bill, had excuses last time, and this race shape gives him every chance to park close and keep boxing.
3. Jesa Lupa (No.3) — $4.80 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 44.7% | Place: 44.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why Blinkers go on, Pike jumps aboard, and if the headgear sharpens him up even a length he's right there late.
Roughie: Yankee Ace (No.2) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 38.4% | Value: 1.81x
Why Bubble cheeker goes on after a couple of forgive runs, and if he gets the right cart into it he's not out of this by any stretch.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. No.5 I'm A Soulman can use barrier 1, No.3 Spellborn rolls up, and the backmarkers might be chasing shadows.
Punty read: Here's where the map starts screaming louder than the form. No.6 Bondi Lifesaver is favourite and has the class edge, but slow-run 1200m races at Scarpside are not where you want to be spotting them three or four lengths. No.5 I'm A Soulman gets the soft map and looks the practical play, while No.1 Forgotten Son is the sneaky one with the tongue tie and enough ability to improve sharply. No.4 The Sessione is the old smoky if you're playing the rough end. If they crawl, this race could look like a procession until the clock hits the 200m.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Bondi Lifesaver (No.6) — $2.70 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$35.10
Prob 18.6% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.65x
Why Strongest talent in the race and gets the right rider, but he needs the race run properly enough to let that class show.
2. I'm A Soulman (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.80 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 45.3% | Place: 52.5% | Value: 1.07x
Why Barrier 1, on-speed pattern, and looks the one who gets every favour while others are forced to circle.
3. Forgotten Son (No.1) — $10.00 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 45.3% | Place: 37.2% | Value: 1.54x
Why Had interference last start, gets a gear tweak, and if he settles closer this is the exact bounce-back race.
Roughie: The Sessione (No.4) — $19.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 17.4% | Value: 1.21x
Why Pace helps, draw helps, and if the favourite gets too far back this roughie can pinch a podium like a sneaky bastard.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.2 Ribellato and No.9 Maythisbetheone roll forward, but the race really sets up for the stalkers.
Punty read: No.3 Shilling Lane is the obvious one and with good reason. Two starts, two seconds, Pike up, and this field doesn't look deeper than a kiddie pool. The fun bit is underneath. No.4 King Brew was good on debut and looks the main danger, while the massive prices about No.1 Cousin Mortimer and No.2 Ribellato make them silly place speculators if the race gets messy. If Shilling Lane gets clean air, he should be bolting in. If he gets bailed up for half a stride, everyone else suddenly remembers how to gallop.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Shilling Lane (No.3) — $1.82 / $1.14 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$15.00
Prob 29.1% | Place: 67.4% | Value: 0.68x
Why Best exposed form by panels, Pike stays aboard, and this is the sort of maiden he should be cashing rather than studying.
2. Cousin Mortimer (No.1) — $67.00 / $6.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 36.8% | Place: 37.1% | Value: 3.08x
Why Mad old price for a horse that can settle closer than the rags suggest and stick on if the fav doesn't get a picnic.
3. Ribellato (No.2) — $67.00 / $6.50 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.9% | Place: 25.0% | Value: 2.08x
Why If left alone in front from the inside draw, this can run much better than the market expects.
Roughie: King Brew (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 41.4% | Value: 1.62x
Why Debut run said he's no donkey, and if he gets the back of No.3 he'll be the one launching at him late.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. No.2 Rare Honor gets the map tick, while a few of the better-fancied runners risk getting cluttered away.
Punty read: This is where blokes talk themselves into the sexy stable and forget the race shape. No.5 Wynn Las Vegas is clearly talented, but barrier 12 in a slow-run mile is the sort of setup that can make you throw a meat pie. No.2 Rare Honor is the practical horse - track form, suitable trip, draws to land close without spending petrol. No.1 Macho Arquero is a lifelong maiden, yes, but at the quote he's the sort of ugly date you sneak out with after midnight because the value's outrageous. This race smells like traffic.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Wynn Las Vegas (No.5) — $2.00 / $1.22 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$16.80
Prob 25.0% | Place: 67.8% | Value: 0.63x
Why Pike and the Williams yard are always dangerous, and if he slots in without being snagged to last, he's got the talent edge.
2. Rare Honor (No.2) — $6.00 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.40
Prob 47.8% | Place: 32.9% | Value: 1.10x
Why Drawn to get every favour, likes the track, and this slower mile setup is right in his lane.
3. Macho Arquero (No.1) — $51.00 / $5.50 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 39.6% | Place: 30.6% | Value: 2.80x
Why Old mate maiden, sure, but he gets the map to camp handy and just keep grinding while others look for runs.
Roughie: Hope To Admire (No.3) — $9.50 / $2.35 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 34.7% | Value: 1.30x
Why Honest without winning, but if this turns into a sit-sprint she absolutely has the profile to loom up.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. No.3 Mighty Hosanna holds a handy line, No.6 Eternal Wine gets the stalker run, and No.7 Gangster Goddess gets every chance to pounce.
Punty read: Tiny field, only two places paid, and the top three dominate the conversation. This is not the race to get weird unless you've been concussed by the bar fridge. No.7 Gangster Goddess has Pike, blinkers first time and the right profile, but she's been smashed into skinny territory. No.6 Eternal Wine is the value runner in the setup - hot stable, hot jockey, nice barrier, and enough tactical speed to stay out of trouble. No.3 Mighty Hosanna is the honest pest in the race. If one of the top three gets beaten, something has gone off-script.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Gangster Goddess (No.7) — $2.30 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 25.7% | Place: 49.4% | Value: 0.74x
Why Pike, blinkers, and a race shape that gives her the last shot at them - obvious danger, obvious chance.
2. Eternal Wine (No.6) — $4.40 / $2.15 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.95
Prob 48.1% | Place: 48.1% | Value: 1.37x
Why This is the sweet spot runner - hot barn, hot hoop, and maps to land right behind the speed without doing any dumb shit.
3. Mighty Hosanna (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 47.5% | Place: 47.5% | Value: 1.04x
Why Honest, tactical and in it for a long way, but in a 7-runner race you don't want to be collecting bronze medals.
Roughie: Housewife (No.1) — $11.00 / $4.00 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 22.5% | Value: 1.44x
Why Blinkers go on and if the favourites overdo the watching brief, she can launch late and spoil the party.
Race type: Handicap, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.6 Five Down rolls up, No.2 Too Much Talk lands handy, and No.4 Reconnaissance gets the inside run of it.
Punty read: Terrific little race if you like splitting hairs and swearing at replays. No.4 Reconnaissance draws barrier 1 and should get the sort of economical run trainers dream about. No.2 Too Much Talk is the map horse and keeps putting himself in races, while No.6 Five Down gets a pace setup that brings him right into the frame. No.8 Hope To Rule is the rough knockout with gear changes if you want a bit of spice. This is one of those races where half the field can look like winners at the 300m and only one of them actually is.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Reconnaissance (No.4) — $2.90 / $1.32 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 17.9% | Place: 50.3% | Value: 0.66x
Why Inside draw, economical run, and the profile says he's the one who can pinch it before the wider runners wind up.
2. Too Much Talk (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 47.9% | Place: 47.9% | Value: 1.02x
Why Pace helps him, map helps him, and if he gets that soft sit midfield with cover he'll be hitting the line hard.
3. Five Down (No.6) — $9.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 46.5% | Place: 46.5% | Value: 1.50x
Why Backed in the market, gets a setup to suit, and absolutely has the profile to swamp them if the gaps appear.
Roughie: Hope To Rule (No.8) — $18.00 / $4.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 37.7% | Value: 2.82x
Why Gear changes, stable can land a touch, and if he controls from the front half he can give these a proper fright.
Race type: Handicap, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. No.7 Can't Catch Me gets forward, No.3 Sovereign Salute stalks, and a heap of others are relying on timing and luck.
Punty read: Ah yes, the get-out race. Also known as the scene where good people make terrible decisions. No.7 Can't Catch Me is the top pick and clearly has the right pattern for a slow-run 1500m, but the price isn't stealing. No.3 Sovereign Salute has the upside horse profile and even with the drift still looks the safest way to play it for a placing. No.6 Alabrae is the weird one - cold stable, wide draw, but enough talent and a big enough quote to stay in the conversation. No.4 Jazalot is the grinder from the inside alley who can absolutely annoy everyone by boxing on when the swoopers fluff the jump.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Can't Catch Me (No.7) — $3.60 / $1.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $16.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$16.50
Prob 19.0% | Place: 51.2% | Value: 0.86x
Why On-speed pattern in a slowly run race is the whole trick here, and if Brad has him rolling at the right time he can pinch the lot.
2. Sovereign Salute (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.95
Prob 50.9% | Place: 50.9% | Value: 1.15x
Why Progressive type, gets in light enough, and only really needs a clean trail to be in the first three.
3. Alabrae (No.6) — $23.00 / $5.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.3% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.89x
Why Big odds, not hopeless, and if the race turns ugly late this is exactly the sort of one that starts rattling home when it's too late for your sanity.
Roughie: Jazalot (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.7% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 1.02x
Why Drawn to save every inch of ground and can absolutely sneak into the finish if the leaders don't fold.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,4,2,5 / 6,1,3,2 / 6,5,1,4 / 3,1,4 (192 combos x $0.30 = $57.60) -- 30% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 5,2,1,3,8 / 7,6,3 / 4,2,6,8 / 7,3,4,6,2 (300 combos x $0.22 = $65.00) -- 22% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Bondi Business (Race 1, No.1) — $3.20
2 - Shilling Lane (Race 4, No.3)✓ Won — $1.82
3 - Eternal Wine (Race 6, No.6)✗ — $4.40
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Pinjarra Scarpside is serving up one of those proper provincial ambush cards - Good 4 deck, rail out +6m, breeze whistling across the joint, and a stack of maidens who'd miss a train if it parked in the mounting yard. Translation: map matters, cover matters, and if you're launching from the back in a dawdle, you better have a finishing burst like prime Jason Bourne.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Pinjarra Scarpside, 1200-1600m card
Rail: +6m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair, with handy runners getting first look)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 23C (watch for that gusty easterly making cover valuable)
Early lane guess: Inside to middle lanes should be fine early; no need to be circling the field like you're lost on the Kwinana
Tempo profile: A couple of genuine maidens early, then plenty of moderate and slow-run jobs where map position will be worth its weight in beer tickets
Jockeys to follow:
William Pike, big ammo all day with No.3 Shilling Lane, No.5 Wynn Las Vegas and No.7 Gangster Goddess, and when he lands one-one here it gets ugly for the rest
Chris Parnham, live chances across the card and plenty of runners that map to stalk rather than chase, which is gold on a day like this
Lucy Fiore, she's got a handful that can land in the first six and pinch the race before the backmarkers even clock on
Stables to respect:
M L Lane (4 runners), No.9 Leafice, No.7 Chorister, No.6 Eternal Wine and No.3 Playing Quest all look well placed and the yard has a few live ones, not window dressing
S V Vahala (4 runners), value stable on this card with No.5 Classic Poetry, No.2 Yankee Ace, No.3 Spellborn and No.8 Hope To Rule all capable of giving the market a fright
G & A Williams (3 runners), No.5 Wynn Las Vegas heads the team, with No.1 Housewife and No.8 Flying Maradona around it; when they place them here, they're usually not here for the sandwiches
Punty's take: This looks like one of those Pinjarra meetings where the form guide alone will get you half the way there, then the speed map comes along and either kisses you on the mouth or punches you in the kidneys. The rail being out +6m says don't get too cute early. If you're on-speed or stalking with cover, you're in the movie. If you're snagged back in a race with no pressure, you may as well be watching Netflix in the float.
The first half of the card has that lovely provincial cocktail of backed favourites, gear changes and mystery meat maidens. No.1 Bondi Business in Race 1 has been crunched and you can see why, but he's got to overcome a map that's not completely gift-wrapped. No.3 Shilling Lane in Race 4 looks the obvious banker on exposed form, but the race around it has a few place blowouts if the favourite cops any traffic. Then the middle of the day turns into slow-tempo chess. That's where blokes do their dough backing backmarkers who "just need luck". Luck is not a strategy, legends.
The sharper angles for mine are the horses that can land handy without burning petrol. No.6 Eternal Wine in Race 6 fits that script beautifully. No.2 Too Much Talk in Race 7 gets a lovely setup in a race where the top few are tightly matched. And in the last, if you're trying to get out, don't just fall into the favourite trap like you're rewatching the same bad rom-com. Race 8 has proper wallet-assault energy.
What it means for you: Play the early maidens with a bit of discipline and don't spray like a busted lawn sprinkler. There are win bets worth having, but the safer edge on this card sits with place plays in the messy races where a horse maps sweetly and only needs to hold a spot. That's not cowardice - that's punting with a frontal lobe.
Race 4 is your closest thing to a banker, but even then, the place roughies around No.3 Shilling Lane are the sort that make quaddies worth having. Race 5 and Race 8 are classic "good horse, awkward setup" races, so don't be stunned if the obvious one goes under at skinny enough odds. That's where the value sits with the honest types who'll be in the finish if the race shape goes to script.
For exotics, keep it simple. A lot of these races don't scream Hollywood ending - they scream "one of the top few, just get the order right-ish". Quinellas and a straight exacta early make more sense than trying to write the next bloody Lord Of The Rings with a six-horse trifecta. Protect the bankroll, stay with the map, and don't chase every drifter like it's a mystery box from Temu.