Monday, 09 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1412m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. No.1 Chistota and No.2 Artie's Magic land handy, No.5 Namara stalks, and the backmarkers will need someone to light a match.
Punty read: This is one of those tiny-field maidens where everyone talks themselves into a "certainty" and then acts shocked when it turns into a sit-sprint. No.1 Chistota has the draw, the profile and the right map to box-seat and launch. No.2 Artie's Magic is the obvious danger, but the drift is a bit of a cold splash and he's not exactly Winx walking into a country maiden. No.5 Namara is the honest grinding type who keeps turning up, while No.7 Headstream has had a nibble in betting and might be the one if the market support is real.
Top 3 + Roughie ($3.50 pool)
1. Artie's Magic (No.2) — $2.56 / $1.32 🏆 4TH
Bet $3.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 59.7% | Place: 59.7% | Value: 0.96x
Why Been around the mark and the wide run last start was a fair excuse. Just not desperate to take a short win quote when this could get tactical.
2. Namara (No.5) — $4.65 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 39.9% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.02x
Why Honest mare who keeps finding the placings, but the weight and tiny-field setup mean I'm not launching.
3. Chistota (No.1) — $2.70 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 35.2% | Place: 64.1% | Value: 1.18x
Why Barrier 2 in a slow-run race is the absolute dream. Soft-track form is fine, Maher polish helps, and he should get first crack at them.
Roughie: Headstream (No.7) — $5.00 / $2.33 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 23.6% | Value: 0.79x
Why Heavy support says someone likes it, and if the favs get cute and ugly in front he can stalk and pinch it late.
Race type: Maiden, 1212m
Map & tempo: Slow pace again. No.3 Whatsthetimemrwolf and No.5 Monsieur Wolf should land handy enough, while No.7 Blue Dane gets his chance from barrier 1.
Punty read: Another small-field maiden, so welcome back to Stress Theatre. No.3 Whatsthetimemrwolf has had market support and the latest run was better than it reads after covering ground. No.7 Blue Dane is the obvious mug-punter magnet from the inside, but he's had enough cracks to make you check your wallet. No.4 Foxy Prague is the interesting place angle if the leaders overthink it, and No.1 Billybago is the roughie for sickos who like pain and a price.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Foxy Prague (No.4) — $6.20 / $1.90 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$21.00
Prob 35.9% | Place: 35.9% | Value: 1.13x
Why Forgive the bumping and hampering last time. If the race gets messy late, she's the one I want steaming at them for a cheque.
2. Whatsthetimemrwolf (No.3) — $3.05 / $1.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $18.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$18.00
Prob 30.7% | Place: 52.3% | Value: 1.17x
Why Backed from the jump, maps sweetly and gets the right race shape to improve. This looks the cleanest winning profile in the field.
3. Monsieur Wolf (No.5) — $5.80 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 31.1% | Value: 0.93x
Why Winkers go on and the debut third had merit, but this is still a six-runner maiden and I'm not trying to be a hero.
Roughie: Billybago (No.1) — $17.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 3.48x
Why If the speed turns ugly and Luke Rolls gets him stalking the right back, he's the blowout that makes people spit their beer.
Race type: Class 1, 1412m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.3 Kirkall and No.2 Fall For Autumn push forward, No.5 Melaten stalks, and No.9 Sources Link looks for cover before launching.
Punty read: Now we're talking. This is a proper Class 1 where the market has opinions, but the shape says don't get lazy. No.3 Kirkall is the obvious horse to beat off the last-start win, but he's not exactly stealing. No.5 Melaten loves the trip and the ground, and No.1 Decadad is the sort that can lob in the first four and make life awkward for everyone. No.9 Sources Link is the roughie with a path if they overdo it up front and Luke Rolls finds the right cart into it.
1. Melaten (No.5) — $2.90 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 53.0% | Place: 53.0% | Value: 0.80x
Why Won here at the trip and handles give, but the quote is skinny enough to make me pull the handbrake.
2. Decadad (No.1) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 41.1% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 1.35x
Why Honest little bugger, drawn to hold a spot, and the stable is humming. Definitely not hopeless.
3. Kirkall (No.3) — $2.90 / $1.37 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.6% | Place: 61.6% | Value: 0.86x
Why Drawn to stalk, coming off a deserved win, and the Lees yard has him in the right race to go on with it.
Roughie: Sources Link (No.9) — $20.00 / $4.80 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 43.6% | Value: 3.79x
Why If Luke Rolls can smother him up one-off and produce late, this is the blowout that can absolutely make the race look stupid.
Race type: Class 1, 1010m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo. No.4 All Torn Up, No.3 City Of Tears and No.2 Send A Telegram all land prominent, while No.10 Time And Rhythm needs the breaks.
Punty read: This is the classic "smart horse vs fresh horse vs fit horse" sprint. No.4 All Torn Up won first-up and did it on a Soft track, so the profile is obvious. No.3 City Of Tears resumes off a long break after winning on debut, which is always a bit Top Gun - looks flashy, but can Maverick still fly after a spell? No.2 Send A Telegram is the tough old grafter with the right race fitness, and No.10 Time And Rhythm is the one for exotics if the gaps come at the right time.
Top 3 + Roughie ($4.00 pool)
1. City Of Tears (No.3) — $3.80 / $2.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.80
Prob 53.8% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.55x
Why Debut winner with upside and a proper fresh profile. Place is the safer play off the long spell.
2. Send A Telegram (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 53.8% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.99x
Why Track and trip stats are solid, and he'll be punching away on the speed like Rocky in round 11.
3. All Torn Up (No.4) — $2.70 / $1.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.3% | Place: 64.2% | Value: 0.86x
Why Progressive type, maps to be right there and already knows how to win on soft ground. Hard to keep out of the finish.
Roughie: Time And Rhythm (No.10) — $7.50 / $2.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why Backed in betting, gets the right smother from barrier 4 and only needs one split to be very dangerous.
Race type: BM82, 1612m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo. Several want handy spots, but No.7 Solar Power and No.4 Change The Date look set to get the cosy runs.
Punty read: This is a beauty because the market favourite isn't exactly one I'd tattoo on my chest. No.3 Supreme Command is honest, but the setup isn't perfect and there are a few with better angles. No.7 Solar Power comes off a win, handles some sting out of the ground and gets the sort of run that wins these country miles. No.4 Change The Date has been backed and from barrier 1 should get the run of the race, while No.8 Talana is the old place-betting pest who just hangs around like a bad ex.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)
1. Change The Date (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 5TH
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 49.5% | Place: 49.5% | Value: 1.24x
Why Market says go again, barrier 1 says soft run, and the recent better races give him a real class edge for this level.
2. Talana (No.8) — $7.50 / $2.40 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 44.3% | Place: 44.3% | Value: 1.18x
Why Honest as a brick, keeps finding the placings, and if the leaders overcook it she'll be there making life annoying.
3. Solar Power (No.7) — $3.90 / $3.10 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.5% | Place: 48.1% | Value: 1.11x
Why Fresh winner, drawn to get cover in the right lane and this isn't a murderous BM82. Looks ready to go again.
Roughie: Believe So (No.6) — $9.50 / $3.00 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 31.7% | Value: 1.12x
Why Strong support, gets through the wet, and if he jumps cleanly he's absolutely in the race.
Race type: Class 3, 1212m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo. No.1 Outakandy, No.5 Trounce and No.6 Aye Aye Skipper all push up, while No.2 Danxia gets back and hopes the race opens up.
Punty read: This race has more moving parts than a Transformers movie. No.2 Danxia is the favourite and clearly talented enough, but from back in the field in a race without crazy speed, he needs a ride. No.5 Trounce gets the map advantage and that 4kg drop is proper catnip. No.1 Outakandy is the rough, tough on-pacer who can box on, while No.3 Picasso's Dream is the roughie if the race turns into a late swoopers' lane.
1. Trounce (No.5) — $4.60 / $3.50 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 38.0% | Place: 38.0% | Value: 1.56x
Why Map is the big tick. Drops weight, handles soft ground and should get every possible look.
2. Outakandy (No.1) — $7.40 / $2.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 37.7% | Place: 37.7% | Value: 1.02x
Why If he jumps clean and rolls up on the speed, he's the one making the others chase.
3. Danxia (No.2) — $3.20 / $3.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.9% | Place: 52.2% | Value: 0.92x
Why Classy enough to win it, gets a hot jockey and if the race is run properly he'll be the bloke storming over the top.
Roughie: Picasso's Dream (No.3) — $18.00 / $3.90 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 33.8% | Value: 2.42x
Why Lovely roughie profile if they overdo it up front. One of those "don't say I didn't tell ya" types.
Race type: BM58, 1010m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo. No.3 Unsnoozual, No.10 Amoruso and No.1 Barcelona Express push up, with No.6 La Cache A Vin and No.2 Cardsharp stalking.
Punty read: Nice little closer and a race where you can make a case for half the field if you've had enough beers. No.6 La Cache A Vin has the best winning profile for me - drawn the paint, proven at the track and trip, and in a race where plenty of these have a "yeah but" attached. No.2 Cardsharp is the safer place style from a track he handles, while No.10 Amoruso has upside but still has to show he's not just a good-news horse in the wrong race. No.11 Personal Space has been backed and is the market smoky if the rain knocks the stuffing out of a few.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.00 pool)
1. Cardsharp (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 61.8% | Place: 61.8% | Value: 1.01x
Why Track stats are handy, gets a soft stalking run and looks the dependable type to be there when the whips are cracking.
2. Amoruso (No.10) — $4.45 / $2.10 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 51.7% | Place: 51.7% | Value: 1.04x
Why Lightly raced and talented, but this is a proper little BM58 scrap and not a red-carpet procession.
3. La Cache A Vin (No.6) — $3.90 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.9% | Place: 59.1% | Value: 1.18x
Why Drawn to get a gun run, handles the wet well enough and drops into the sort of race he can absolutely nick.
Roughie: Personal Space (No.11) — $9.00 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 39.0% | Value: 1.28x
Why Backed from a price and if the rain turns it into a stamina dash, she's the smoky who can clunk into it.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,2,5 / 3,4,7 / 3,5,9,1 / 4,3,2,10 (144 combos x $0.30 = $43.20) -- 30% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Whatsthetimemrwolf (Race 2, No.3) — $3.05
2 - Solar Power (Race 5, No.7)✗ — $3.90
3 - La Cache A Vin (Race 7, No.6)✗ — $3.90
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Chaos Merchants, Coffs is a Soft 6 now but the sky looks like it's got another cry in it, so don't get too horny for the paint too early. The first couple are tactical little bastards, then the card turns into a proper wet-track pub brawl where map, balance and not doing your dough in skinny maidens is the play.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Coffs Harbour, 1010-1612m card
Rail: +2m W/Post-1000m, +4m 1000m-350m
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play fair early, then chop up and reward the better lane hunters)
Weather: Showers increasing, 22C and sticky as a kebab shop wall (watch for a late downgrade and the fence losing its charm)
Early lane guess: Inside to middle early, then edging away from the rail if the drizzle keeps belting down
Tempo profile: Slow first two, then mostly moderate-run races where settling handy should be gold
Jockeys to follow:
Luke Rolls, Busy card, in good nick, and gets key rides on No.1 Chistota, No.7 Solar Power and No.2 Danxia.
Dylan Turner, Hot hand and jumps on live hopes like No.2 Send A Telegram, No.8 Talana and No.11 Personal Space.
Andrew Gibbons, Proper senior hoop for the trickier races, with No.3 Kirkall, No.1 Clyde and No.5 Trounce all needing good decisions.
Stables to respect:
B D Bellamy (7 runners), Massive hand across the meeting and plenty of them map to get every possible smother.
K A Lees (3 runners), Not a huge team, but No.3 Kirkall and No.5 Trounce are serious players.
J A Sprague (4 runners), Sneaky little squad with No.4 Foxy Prague, No.2 Send A Telegram and No.6 Aye Aye Skipper all capable of ruining your schooner.
Punty's take: This meeting screams "watch the first two races like a hawk". You've got a Soft 6, rail out, rising humidity, and more rain lurking like the shark in Jaws. Early, the inside should still be usable, especially in those crawl-up maidens where the leaders can stack them and pinch a break. If by Race 2 or Race 3 they're already peeling off the fence, adjust fast and don't be the mug still backing inside draws because they looked pretty on paper at breakfast.
There's a stack of races today where the market favourite is either fair enough but not exactly Robin Hood, or just a bit too short for the amount of chaos involved. No.2 Artie's Magic in Race 1 has had chances. No.7 Blue Dane in Race 2 looks the obvious one for the public, but that's the sort of horse that can have you muttering into your chips after another honest second. Later on, No.3 Kirkall, No.4 All Torn Up and No.2 Danxia all have cases, but none of them are strolling around like Phar Lap in a picnic race. This isn't a card to just jam shorties into everything and pray.
The more interesting yarn is where the pace and stable intent line up. No.3 Whatsthetimemrwolf has been backed and you can see why. No.4 Change The Date has copped support in the mile and makes plenty of sense from the inside. No.11 Personal Space is the late smoky the market has sniffed at in the last. And Bellamy's got runners all over the joint like he's trying to own the place. If his stable truck leaves happy, you don't want to be the poor bastard standing there empty-handed.
What it means for you: Play the early races with some restraint. Race 1 and Race 2 are both NTD setups, so only two places get paid and that can turn a "safe" bet into a swift kick in the pills. If you're going to be aggressive, do it where the map is clean and the horse has a proper path to winning, not where six maidens are taking turns to disappoint their bloodlines.
As the day rolls on, the better strategy is to lean into horses that settle handy without burning petrol. Coffs sprint races on wet ground can get very "first four in running, thanks for coming", especially when tempos are only moderate. That suits horses like No.4 All Torn Up, No.7 Solar Power, No.5 Trounce and No.6 La Cache A Vin, while the get-back types need the race to actually set up and not turn into a dawdle-and-dash.
Where I'd be hunting exotics is only in the races where the finish looks likely to be controlled by a tight cluster, not a complete raffle. Quinellas in the tighter races make more sense than launching into circus bets and hoping for divine intervention. In short: be patient early, trust map over hype, and if the track starts playing like a waterlogged MCG wing, upgrade the stalkers and swoopers fast.