Monday, 13 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Benchmark 58, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, ideal conditions for position backmarkers to creep into it
Punty read: On Soft 5 at 2200m, the race shape tends to reward horses that can stay out of bother and then keep grinding. Charlotting looks like the one that can take the next step with the on-pace advantage, while Farraige and Bill Peyto sit in the danger zone where late room matters. Godwits is the sort of roughie that can sneak into the placings if the speed collapses, but for win money? Not today's vibe.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Charlotting (No.3) — $3.30 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 23.8% | Place: 63.1% | Value: 0.99x
Why Draws in, on the speed map, and in slow 2200s that's how you avoid getting stuck watching from 5 lengths back.
2. Farraige (No.4) — $2.85 / $1.62 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.1% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.61x
Why Market has him shorter than his value screams, so he's more a watch-and-hope than a wager.
3. Bill Peyto (No.7) — $6.20 / $2.85 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 42.9% | Value: 1.29x
Why Value lives there, but this isn't a place-friendly setup in a race where the placings can get tricky.
Roughie: Godwits (No.6) — $11.50 / $3.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 33.8% | Value: 1.40x
Why His path is real (Soft 5 grinding), but this field setup makes him a "sneak in" rather than a "go win" without proper place coverage.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, backmarkers can finish hard, but odds say it's still about the best settling lane
Punty read: Adamana is the loudest "he's here to do business" maiden on the card. The pace is slow, so you don't need to be on the lead forever, you just need to be in the race when the sprint-to-the-finish starts. Sonnig and Lady Lilibet are the classic "keep them honest and make them pay" types, especially if the field stretches. Avignon is the rougher but the market's telling you she's not here for a holiday.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Adamana (No.2) — $1.95 / $1.08 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 42.2% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Maiden with the best combination of being competitive now and not needing a dream ride, slow 1600s suit him.
2. Sonnig (No.10) — $4.00 / $1.45 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.50
Prob 17.0% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 0.80x
Why The market has him moving, but you're paying for chance, still, slow pace means she can run into the placings.
3. Lady Lilibet (No.6) — $4.30 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $3.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.80
Prob 16.5% | Place: 67.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why Big place profile, and if she gets even half-clear galloping room, she's right there at the money.
Roughie: Avignon (No.3) — $12.00 / $2.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 41.5% | Value: 1.04x
Why If the race falls apart late, this is the one that can pick up the pieces at a price that feels rude.
Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, speed wins early, class decides late
Punty read: Panelli is the one to stick with: he's on pace, he's been getting into it, and this is the kind of maiden where the better one finds the line while the others wrestle for scraps. Regalade and Bloomin' Hell are live for the trifecta slot types, especially if the tempo doesn't sprint too hard. Nothing Finer is a value looker on the back of the right tweaks, but this is still a race where momentum matters from the top of the lane.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Panelli (No.2) — $2.05 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$5.77
Prob 32.5% | Place: 65.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why On pace and ready for the step, Soft 5 doesn't stop a proper racehorse, it just makes it pay harder.
2. Regalade (No.3) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 11.4% | Place: 42.7% | Value: 1.21x
Why Blinkers/winkers chatter plus midfield style, he's the "if the gaps show" runner.
3. Bloomin' Hell (No.7) — $11.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.23x
Why He can run on, but he's not guaranteed to hit the top-three without the right racing room.
Roughie: Nothing Finer (No.9) — $9.80 / $3.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 34.6% | Value: 0.95x
Why Roughie path is real (improving gear + place chance), but he needs more than this track usually gives at this price.
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, 1000m = instant decisions, no time for waiting
Punty read: This is a "get to the front third or get punished" sprint. Manoora is the benchmark for being in the right place at the right time: drawn well enough, and the profile screams "take the chance and don't overthink it." Tassorts Pride and Lovely Leni are the natural place-and-pounce types if the front runner does what front runners do. Harry's got the class to surprise, but you're backing him as a value angle rather than a certainty.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.00 pool)
1. Manoora (No.9) — $2.00 / $1.14 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$9.00
Prob 40.1% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why Soft 5 sprinting suits a horse that can keep rhythm, and she's got the profile to do exactly that.
2. Tassorts Pride (No.12) — $3.90 / $1.57 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.99
Prob 17.3% | Place: 66.9% | Value: 0.80x
Why Place value is there with a clean sprint ride, even if she doesn't win, she's built for a cheeky cheque.
3. Lovely Leni (No.8) — $5.00 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 15.2% | Place: 66.8% | Value: 0.93x
Why Fast race = people chasing each other, she's one who can get the right run in traffic.
Roughie: Justo's Rocket (No.2) — $23.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 28.2% | Value: 0.54x
Why If he wins, it's chaos theatre, but for a bet you want him as "impact player", not "core".
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, if you don't respect the leaders, you get left behind
Punty read: This is where pace either cooks you or saves you. Street Parade looks like the one that can stay involved without doing too much early. Brogans Creek is the real value swing: the market hasn't gifted this at all, but his profile says he can sit on and then keep working late. Tiye is a sneaky runner if the speed burns and the field stretches.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.50 pool)
1. Street Parade (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $11.00 Each Way ($5.50W + $5.50P) — Cashed, net -$1.93
Prob 16.6% | Place: 65.0% | Value: 0.85x
Why Loves a firm position in a real tempo race, you're backing survival plus finish.
2. Sorrento Palace (No.2) — $3.40 / $1.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 65.2% | Value: 0.64x
Why If he wins, you'll hear about it, but the ticket already covers the risk properly via EW on the primary.
3. Brogans Creek (No.8) — $8.35 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 14.5% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 1.56x
Why Big upside for place if the race stays honest, and that value feels like it owes you money.
Roughie: Tiye (No.7) — $9.00 / $2.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 1.33x
Why He's the "if the race shape gets messy" option, but you don't want to dilute the core here.
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, short race, long consequences
Punty read: De Joker is market-favourite territory, but at this level you still need him to land in the right rhythm. Torendosetta and Glowing Rapids look like the ones with better race-shape alignment: they can hold their momentum through the sticky phases and give themselves a chance to sprint clean. Bounding Bon and Quasimoto are your "if they get a gap" options, but the main value story is where you can trust the run.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)
1. De Joker (No.4) — $3.50 / $1.62 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P) — Cashed, net -$0.70
Prob 17.1% | Place: 58.0% | Value: 0.78x
Why He's got the gate and the map to be involved, but you're treating him as a place-safe play with win spice.
2. Torendosetta (No.5) — $6.40 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 42.7% | Value: 1.26x
Why The value is there, but the EW cover on De Joker already handles the "what if" scenario.
3. Glowing Rapids (No.1) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $2.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.40
Prob 15.0% | Place: 33.3% | Value: 1.27x
Why Lead-friendly type that keeps earning at 1100, on Soft 5, that matters.
Roughie: Gidgee Guy (No.7) — $14.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 12.8% | Value: 0.90x
Why If it turns into a scramble, he can plug along, but this is not the day to chase that hard.
Race type: Benchmark 74, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, speed can still steal it, but the class will fight back
Punty read: Gail Jeanette is the "can win but needs the race to play his way" type, while Deion and Move She Can look like they're drawn into the lane where they can hit the line properly. Prince Of Sepang is the one who can cruise into the right pocket and then be hard to hold out. This is a race where place betting makes you feel less sick when the winner gets cheeky.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. Gail Jeanette (No.6) — $2.75 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$27.00
Prob 17.8% | Place: 65.2% | Value: 0.64x
Why She's got the speed-map DNA, and if she's in front early, Soft 5 punishes anything that's too far back.
2. Deion (No.1) — $8.20 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 65.0% | Value: 1.53x
Why Value's there, but the place pricing isn't where we want it for the system today.
3. Move She Can (No.11) — $7.00 / $2.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$15.30
Prob 14.3% | Place: 65.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Tongue tie + on-pacer profile means she can keep finding the line even if the leaders sprint away.
Roughie: Midnight Dream (No.5) — $16.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 39.3% | Value: 1.31x
Why The roughie path is to get trapped behind a wall early and then break through late, possible, but not the priority.
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, 1400s are about positioning before the finish kicks
Punty read: Ciao Bella Mia looks like the class engine here: midfield but with the right tempo profile to be there when the race tightens. Cheap Shot is the one that can do it tough but still run on with enough fight to hang on for a cheque. Deodee and Ruby Harmony are your place insurance while Stolen Show is the "if it turns into a sprint from the 400m" chaos option.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Ciao Bella Mia (No.10) — $2.38 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$8.28
Prob 22.5% | Place: 63.1% | Value: 0.70x
Why Winning profiles on Soft 5 usually come from rhythm, she maps to hit her stride at the right stage.
2. Cheap Shot (No.5) — $3.70 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.20
Prob 14.2% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 0.68x
Why Big place engine with genuine line-running ability, if the leaders bunch, she gets the gap.
3. Deodee (No.11) — $9.50 / $2.70 🏆 6TH
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 11.5% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 1.42x
Why You're paying for value and the place profile is legit, this is how you avoid a "just missed" heartbreak.
Roughie: Stolen Show (No.12) — $11.00 / $3.40 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 1.60x
Why Roughie wins when it turns into a positional battle, but we keep the stake focussed.
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so the closers still need a run, not just vibes
Punty read: Quick Sharp is a live type but he's short on value today. Extreme Merger and Moon Zone are your price-sanity anchors for a place finish. Fierce Luva is the real story: the profile and the odds shape suggests he can get a spot and then pounce late if the leaders kick too hard. Take The Chance is always in the mix, but he's the kind of horse that can run in the wrong pocket and cost you.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Quick Sharp (No.2) — $3.50 / $1.62 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 16.5% | Place: 66.8% | Value: 0.73x
Why Genuine pace suits him to keep rolling, and Each Way means you're covered if the finish is tight.
2. Extreme Merger (No.4) — $5.50 / $2.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 65.4% | Value: 1.08x
Why The value exists, but the EW base already covers the "place vs win" outcomes.
3. Moon Zone (No.13) — $3.38 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.40
Prob 15.0% | Place: 65.0% | Value: 0.64x
Why If he finds the right pocket, he's the type to run into the money without drama.
Roughie: Fierce Luva (No.7) — $9.50 / $2.90 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 65.4% | Value: 1.78x
Why Roughie path is "late lane + leaders tire", but we're not swapping the core just because the price is spicy.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 2,10,6,3 / 2,3,12,9,7 / 9,12,8 / 2,1,7,8 (240 combos x $0.08 = $20.00) -- 8% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 4,5,1 / 6,11,1,5 / 10,5,11,12 / 2,7,4,13 (192 combos x $0.11 = $20.48) -- 11% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 9 / 1 / 4 / 6 / 10 / 2 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Adamana (Race 2, No.2)✗ — $1.95
2 - Panelli (Race 3, No.2)✓ Won — $2.05
3 - Manoora (Race 4, No.9)✓ Won — $2.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Dubbo on a Soft 5 where the track's holding onto hopes like a spooked chook in the yard, and you'd better have a plan because the rain machine isn't doing you favours today. This card's got a mix of proper lead-and-hold races and a couple where the finish line comes for late runners like it's got unfinished business. Let's get amongst it.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Dubbo, 1400-2200m card
Rail: +3m 1000m - 400m, True Remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Wet-track/survive-the-slop: pace matters, but staying power and position still cash)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 9°C (cool and slippery conditions brewing, watch for hoof-wobble early)
Early lane guess: Locking lanes where the speed maps stack up early (R2-R5 especially)
Tempo profile: Mixed, but it's not a parade ring, when they go slow, the closers get a sniff
Jockeys to follow:
Clayton Gallagher, when he's on a live maiden type, he usually makes them earn it and then some
Jacob Stiff, keep an eye on his races where the map says "find cover and pounce"
Jake Pracey-Holmes, if the race is genuine pace, he's a nuisance late (in a good way)
Stables to respect:
Brett Robb (6 runners), keeps turning up with ready-to-fire types
Connie Greig (6 runners), loves this sort of programming: fitness over fuss
Ms M Harrison (5 runners), if her horses get a run, they've got a real chance of boxing the trifecta in your face
Punty's take:
Alright legends, Dubbo on a Soft 5 is basically a chessboard made of mud. If you're on the speed you get to stay in the conversation; if you're back too far, you're just hoping the rest of the field does you a favour. The rail is +3m from the 1000m to the 400m, so there's some extra help for horses that can sit handy without getting stuck too wide and losing momentum.
The big spine today is three winners across three different races, Adamana, Manoora, Panelli, the sort of horses you can back with a straight face because they line up with the likely race shape. After that, the rest of the card is about not getting cute: trust the position and the fitness, and respect how Soft 5 exaggerates every little mistake at the 200m to go.
If you're chasing value, you've got plenty of chances, but I'm not telling you to chuck darts. The profitable angle here is Place and Each Way in the "the pace sets up, but the finish is still savage" races. Let the win money come to you when it's earned.
What it means for you:
Race-day job #1: chase the map. When the leaders are strong (and not getting swallowed), your life is easier: back the ones that can hold position, not just ones with nice form lines. Job #2: don't overcommit to longshots where the field's likely to bunch up late, you'll be paying for luck with your hard-earned coin.
So here's the game plan: lock the Big 3 + Multi as the backbone, then treat each race like a separate story. In the mid-field chaos races, you're not hunting for a hero, you're hunting for the one that gets the right run and the others that don't. Place bets are your mates today; win bets are where you behave like a professional degenerate and only press where the race shape agrees.