No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with No.3 kicking up; wind makes "leaders vs stalkers" a proper arm wrestle.
Punty read: No.3 Show On The Road should be positive from the inside alley, but blinkers off first-up can mean "settle a touch and finish" rather than "tear off". No.1 I Had A Dream is the perennial bridesmaid type, always around, always teasing, like a Netflix series that never sticks the ending. The blow-out hope is No.6 Desert Madame: pace-advantaged profile and if she gets the right cart into it, she can be the one launching late while others are gasping.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. I Had A Dream (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.6% | Place: 76.9% | Value: 1.31x
Why Always thereabouts and the market's sniffing, but this is not the price band to go broke in.
2. Show On The Road (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.80 🏆 6TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 64.9% | Place: 64.9% | Value: 1.06x
Why Maps to take the right spot from barrier 2 and if she gets any cover, she's sticking on like a tax bill.
3. He's A Firecracker (No.4) — $31.00 / $9.00 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.5% | Place: 6.5% | Value: 0.56x
Why Needs everything to go right and a few others to forget how to run.
Roughie: Desert Madame (No.6) — $9.00 / $3.67 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 35.1% | Value: 1.29x
Why If the tempo's honest and she gets a bunny to follow, she's the one who can hit the line when they're wobbling.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, the kind where backmarkers need a written apology from the leaders.
Punty read: This is the classic "don't get too far back" country 1400m. No.2 Puissance Playboy with blinkers first time is the big tell: they want him switched on, closer, and travelling. If he lands midfield with cover, he's the one with first crack. Watch for the wind too, the ones that over-race early will be the first to chuck it in.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Puissance Playboy (No.2) — $2.40 / $1.47 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$15.00
Prob 30.3% | Place: 70.8% | Value: 0.99x
Why Slow tempo suits the horse that can roll into the race early, and the market's been leaning his way hard.
2. Market Player (No.7) — $6.60 / $2.87 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 12.0% | Value: 0.36x
Why Needs the race to fall apart, and this tempo says it won't.
3. Cobar Sky (No.6) — $21.00 / $7.67 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 8.1% | Value: 0.30x
Why Can run a race, but you're asking for a lot at the trip in a sit-sprint.
Roughie: Secret Intent (No.10) — $17.50 / $6.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 39.3% | Value: 1.67x
Why If they crawl and then sprint, he's one who can stick on and pinch a placing with the right peel.
Race type: BenchMark 58+, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate, should be run honestly without turning into a lane raffle.
Punty read: No.1 Zadows Landing is the Esperance specialist type: knows where the winning gaps are and doesn't panic when they tack on mid-race. No.4 Harlequin Prancer is the big threat, genuine, tough, and can sprint off a decent tempo. No.10 Rock Of Kaha is the ultimate "don't laugh" runner: big odds, but if the wind turns this into a grind and the faves get lazy, he can lob into the frame.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Zadows Landing (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.67 🏆 2ND
Bet $17.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.50
Prob 34.3% | Place: 56.5% | Value: 1.28x
Why Proven at the track and looks the one who can absorb pressure and still kick.
2. Harlequin Prancer (No.4) — $3.10 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.25
Prob 64.5% | Place: 64.5% | Value: 1.02x
Why Hard fit, honest, and gets the kind of run where the wind doesn't bully him.
3. Rock Of Kaha (No.10) — $42.00 / $14.67 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.5% | Place: 21.4% | Value: 0.72x
Why It's a "needs the stars" job, but the price says you don't need much to be interested.
Roughie: Lacie Ace (No.9) — $9.00 / $3.67 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 25.6% | Value: 1.02x
Why If the top two eyeball each other early, she's the one who can pinch it late with the last crack.
Race type: Class 2, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine, No.3 rolls forward, others hunting cover from that wind.
Punty read: No.1 Favaios is the safe option to run top three, even if he's not screaming "put the house on". No.2 Three Ay Em is the value spice, pace-advantaged and if he gets the right drag into it, he's the one that can swamp them. The real grenade is No.6 Military Action first-up off a big break: if he's forward enough, he's right in this up to his ears.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Three Ay Em (No.2) — $14.00 / $5.33 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.5% | Place: 29.5% | Value: 1.06x
Why The set-up suits, but you're relying on him sticking a proper top-three finish.
2. Favaios (No.1) — $4.20 / $2.07 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$12.00
Prob 65.0% | Place: 65.0% | Value: 0.87x
Why Maps to be in the fight and doesn't need to do anything freakish to run a drum.
3. Guard The Mullah (No.4) — $4.20 / $2.07 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 32.6% | Place: 32.6% | Value: 0.52x
Why Can win, but gets back and needs tempo + luck.
Roughie: Military Action (No.6) — $20.00 / $7.33 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.1% | Place: 18.3% | Value: 6.20x
Why If he's wound up first-up and they overdo it in front, he's the one that can blouse them late.
Race type: BenchMark 70+, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate but competitive, plenty want a spot, nobody wants the wind in the face.
Punty read: This is the kind of race where your "best horse" can still get stiffed. No.2 Keep Attacking is the play at the price, if he's ready fresh, he can park in the moving line and rip home. No.3 Dothraki is the old pro: on-pace, tough, and always around the money, but you're taking unders for the win so we play safer. No.1 Hilton is a live danger if he gets the right run into it, but he's been on the drift.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Keep Attacking (No.2) — $7.40 / $3.13 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $18.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$18.00
Prob 22.5% | Place: 24.6% | Value: 2.02x
Why Fresh, dangerous at this trip, and this is the price range you want to swing at.
2. Dothraki (No.3) — $4.80 / $2.27 🏆 4TH
Bet $7.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 51.2% | Place: 51.2% | Value: 0.47x
Why He'll be there when it matters, safer to take the "run top three" angle in a race with traffic.
3. Hilton (No.1) — $5.70 / $2.57 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 36.4% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 1.49x
Why Absolutely can win, but we're already loaded up.
Roughie: Debonnaire (No.7) — $9.00 / $3.67 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.32x
Why If they go too hard and fan late, he's the one who can sprint over the top.
Race type: Class 5, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate with multiple leaders, whoever gets cover wins the fashion parade.
Punty read: No.11 Hard Solo is the kind of horse you want in a gusty 1100m: parks up, gets into rhythm, and doesn't need a miracle. No.1 Meat Pie Artie is a proper winning chance, but the price is tight and this race has enough speed pressure to make it awkward. No.4 Oregon Hiker is the spicy improver if he can find a trail from the carpark draw.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Meat Pie Artie (No.1) — $3.10 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.5% | Place: 34.8% | Value: 1.20x
Why He's a winning chance, but we're not donating in this price zone today.
2. Hard Solo (No.11) — $2.74 / $1.58 🏆 5TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 43.7% | Place: 43.7% | Value: 1.01x
Why Maps to be in the first wave and gets every chance to fight out the finish.
3. Oregon Hiker (No.4) — $18.50 / $6.83 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 17.0% | Value: 0.69x
Why If they go mad up front, he's the one swooping down the outside like a late Uber Eats order.
Roughie: Royal Accolade (No.2) — $8.40 / $3.47 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 42.4% | Value: 0.92x
Why If the inside runs well and he gets the right sit, he's absolutely a top-three threat.
Race type: BenchMark 72+, 2010m
Map & tempo: Moderate, but with this many runners, "moderate" can turn to madness in one bad mid-race move.
Punty read: Big field Cup and the fave No.2 Arcadia Knight is a backmarker type, always a danger in Esperance if they don't overdo it early. No.12 The Jester's Son is the value bomber: if he stays and gets into the race at the right time, he can win and make everyone spill their beer. No.3 Outspoken Lad is pace-advantaged but wide; if he works too hard, he'll be walking the last 100 like he's carrying a fridge. No.13 True Chance is the "runs a drum" hope, just needs luck from the draw.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Arcadia Knight (No.2) — $2.74 / $1.58 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 22.6% | Place: 40.6% | Value: 0.83x
Why Class edge in the Cup, and if they roll along even slightly, his finish is the best weapon.
2. Outspoken Lad (No.3) — $4.40 / $2.13 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 36.7% | Place: 36.7% | Value: 1.12x
Why Right profile for this tempo, but the draw makes the run messy.
3. True Chance (No.13) — $8.00 / $3.33 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 37.2% | Place: 37.2% | Value: 1.86x
Why If he finds cover and gets out at the right time, he's a massive place chance.
Roughie: The Jester's Son (No.12) — $15.00 / $4.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.8% | Place: 28.7% | Value: 3.83x
Why If the leaders stack up mid-race and the swoopers can build, he's the knockout punch.
Race type: BenchMark 58+, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate, but it's an open handicap, so expect a few wild mid-race moves.
Punty read: No.2 Midnight Rush is the on-pace runner with the right set-up, if he controls the speed and gets cover at the right moments, he can kick. No.5 Stepchild is the backmarker who needs the tempo to lift, but she'll be charging late. No.4 More Likely is the favourite and looks a fair place hope, but you can't just assume it's "sorted" in a race this open. No.13 Small Town Ruby is the market rocket, if she lands in the first half with cover, she can absolutely pinch it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Midnight Rush (No.2) — $6.40 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 18.3% | Place: 39.7% | Value: 1.51x
Why Maps to be prominent, and in an open race you want the horse making their own luck.
2. Stepchild (No.5) — $5.70 / $2.57 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 37.8% | Place: 37.8% | Value: 1.47x
Why She'll be hitting the line, but needs tempo and gaps, not a lock.
3. More Likely (No.4) — $3.70 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 39.0% | Place: 39.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why Obvious hope, but you're paying for it in a race that can throw a curveball.
Roughie: Small Town Ruby (No.13) — $15.00 / $5.67 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 28.3% | Value: 1.35x
Why If she finds the right spot early and the leaders get a breather, she's the one who can steal it.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,6,4 / 2,7,6,8 / 1,4,10 / 6,2,1 (108 combos x $0.37 = $40.00) -- 37% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,4 / 6,2 / 2,7 / 1,4 / 12,2,3,13 / 2,5 (128 combos x $0.31 = $40.00) -- 31% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Puissance Playboy (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $2.45
2 - Zadows Landing (Race 3, No.1)✗ — $2.80
3 - Arcadia Knight (Race 7, No.2)✗ — $2.70
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Sickos, Esperance on a Soft 5 with the rail True and a filthy 33km/h gust doing its best impersonation of a leaf blower in Bunnings. If you see your best bet get cover at the right time, salute it like it just won the Brownlow.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Esperance, 1100m to 2010m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair-ish, but the wind will make it feel like two different tracks)
Weather: Overcast (watch for the gusts turning the straight into a headwind lottery)
Early lane guess: Don't overthink lanes, think cover. Leaders who can pinch a breather are gold.
Tempo profile: Plenty of sprint pressure early, a weirdly dawdly Race 2, then the Cup where half the field will try to win it at the 600m like heroes and die like extras in Mad Max.
Jockeys to follow:
Wayne Wheatley, rides like a bloke who knows where the winning post is and refuses to overcomplicate it.
Lisa Staples, sticky hands in the country; if she finds a bum to follow in this wind, you'll be cashing.
Natasha Faithfull, when she's on a pace-advantaged runner, she's happy to put the race to bed early.
Stables to respect:
Ms H Harding (18 runners), absolutely lobs them in all day; you'll see this name more than the TAB login screen.
P D Tapper (9 runners), heaps of chances across the card; if one of theirs lands in the first four in running, it's alive.
David Page (6 runners), a stack of genuine winning hopes; the Page yard doesn't send them for a look.
Punty's take:
Soft 5, rail True, and the wind is the real handicapper today. The horses that can sit in the first half, get a smother, then peel at the right time are going to look like geniuses. The ones caught three-deep with no cover will look like me after saying "just one more bet" at 6:45pm.
Early doors, Race 1 is a maiden where you could throw a blanket over a few of them, but the map screams "don't be last and don't be wide". Race 2 is slow tempo danger, if you're too far back, you'll need a DeLorean to make ground. Race 3 looks the most "proper" race on the program: class edge, track form, and a couple of obvious dangers.
Then we get into the back end: Race 5 is a proper bunfight sprint, Race 6 is a tough little heat where tempo and cover matter, and Race 7 (the Cup) is the chaos cauldron, big field, staying trip, and plenty of ways to get stiffed. Race 8 is the classic "end of day" open handicap where your mate will say "it's a moral" and you'll watch it finish 6th.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive where the race shape is clean (R2 and R3), be careful where it's messy (R7 and R8). Don't marry short favourites in open races, date them, buy them dinner, but don't move in together.
Exotics: we keep it simple and punchy. I'm happier playing exacta/quinella-type stuff than getting cute with big boxes. In the wind, runs get messy, so anchor the right horse and let the race pay you for being right, not for being a wizard.