Punty's Live Updates
LIVEHOT JOCKEY: Natasha Faithfull — 3 winners from 8 races at Esperance! Riding out of their skin.
🏁 Esperance map check after 7 races: No funny business — the track's playing honest and the maps are holding up. Trust your tips for the last 1, punt away 🤝
🏁 Esperance track check: Punty's reviewed 6 races and the map reads are bang on. No adjustments needed — back yourself for the last 2 💪
🏁 Esperance track read: Closers running riot — 3/4 from behind. Back-runners to follow: Arcadia Knight (R7 $2.70), Meat Pie Artie (R6 $3.20), Guard The Mullah (R4 $3.50), More Likely (R8 $3.70) 📡
🏁 Esperance map check after 4 races: No funny business — the track's playing honest and the maps are holding up. Trust your tips for the last 4, punt away 🤝
TRACK UPDATE: Esperance Soft 5 → Good 4. Firming up nicely.
Meeting Stats
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Sickos, Esperance on a Soft 5 with the rail True and a filthy 33km/h gust doing its best impersonation of a leaf blower in Bunnings. If you see your best bet get cover at the right time, salute it like it just won the Brownlow.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Esperance, 1100m to 2010m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair-ish, but the wind will make it feel like two different tracks)
Weather: Overcast (watch for the gusts turning the straight into a headwind lottery)
Early lane guess: Don’t overthink lanes — think cover. Leaders who can pinch a breather are gold.
Tempo profile: Plenty of sprint pressure early, a weirdly dawdly Race 2, then the Cup where half the field will try to win it at the 600m like heroes and die like extras in Mad Max.
Jockeys to follow:
Wayne Wheatley — rides like a bloke who knows where the winning post is and refuses to overcomplicate it.
Lisa Staples — sticky hands in the country; if she finds a bum to follow in this wind, you’ll be cashing.
Natasha Faithfull — when she’s on a pace-advantaged runner, she’s happy to put the race to bed early.
Stables to respect:
Ms H Harding (18 runners) — absolutely lobs them in all day; you’ll see this name more than the TAB login screen.
P D Tapper (9 runners) — heaps of chances across the card; if one of theirs lands in the first four in running, it’s alive.
David Page (6 runners) — a stack of genuine winning hopes; the Page yard doesn’t send them for a look.
Punty’s take:
Soft 5, rail True, and the wind is the real handicapper today. The horses that can sit in the first half, get a smother, then peel at the right time are going to look like geniuses. The ones caught three-deep with no cover will look like me after saying “just one more bet” at 6:45pm.
Early doors, Race 1 is a maiden where you could throw a blanket over a few of them, but the map screams “don’t be last and don’t be wide”. Race 2 is slow tempo danger — if you’re too far back, you’ll need a DeLorean to make ground. Race 3 looks the most “proper” race on the program: class edge, track form, and a couple of obvious dangers.
Then we get into the back end: Race 5 is a proper bunfight sprint, Race 6 is a tough little heat where tempo and cover matter, and Race 7 (the Cup) is the chaos cauldron — big field, staying trip, and plenty of ways to get stiffed. Race 8 is the classic “end of day” open handicap where your mate will say “it’s a moral” and you’ll watch it finish 6th.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive where the race shape is clean (R2 and R3), be careful where it’s messy (R7 and R8). Don’t marry short favourites in open races — date them, buy them dinner, but don’t move in together.
Exotics: we keep it simple and punchy. I’m happier playing exacta/quinella-type stuff than getting cute with big boxes. In the wind, runs get messy — so anchor the right horse and let the race pay you for being right, not for being a wizard.
PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI
These are the three bets the day leans on.
1 - Puissance Playboy (Race 2, No.2) — $2.45
Why Slow tempo race and he’s the one who can sit close and control his own fate.
2 - Zadows Landing (Race 3, No.1) — $2.80
Why Loves this joint and brings the right profile for a Soft 5 grinder.
3 - Arcadia Knight (Race 7, No.2) — $2.70
Why Classiest closer in the Cup if they don’t go full snail mid-race.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~18.52 = ~$185.22 collect
Race 1 – Suns Out, Guns Out Maiden
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with No.3 kicking up; wind makes “leaders vs stalkers” a proper arm wrestle.
Punty read: No.3 Show On The Road should be positive from the inside alley, but blinkers off first-up can mean “settle a touch and finish” rather than “tear off”. No.1 I Had A Dream is the perennial bridesmaid type — always around, always teasing, like a Netflix series that never sticks the ending. The blow-out hope is No.6 Desert Madame: pace-advantaged profile and if she gets the right cart into it, she can be the one launching late while others are gasping.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. I Had A Dream (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.40
Prob 23.6% | Value: 1.31x
Bet No Bet
Why Always thereabouts and the market’s sniffing, but this is not the price band to go broke in.
2. Show On The Road (No.3) — $3.30 / $1.77
Prob 64.9% | Value: 1.06x
Bet $15.00 Place, return $26.55
Why Maps to take the right spot from barrier 2 and if she gets any cover, she’s sticking on like a tax bill.
3. He's A Firecracker (No.4) — $31.00 / $9.00
Prob 6.5% | Value: 0.56x
Bet No Bet
Why Needs everything to go right and a few others to forget how to run.
Roughie: Desert Madame (No.6) — $8.50 / $2.60
Prob 35.1% | Value: 0.88x
Bet No Bet
Why If the tempo’s honest and she gets a bunny to follow, she’s the one who can hit the line when they’re wobbling.
Exacta: 1, 6 — $15
Why If No.1 does the usual “I’m gonna win today boys” thing, No.6 is the danger peeling into the wind late.
Punty's Pick: Show On The Road (No.3) $1.77 Place
Gets the cheap run from the draw in a race where plenty will do work.
Race 2 – Slow Dance Maiden
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace — the kind where backmarkers need a written apology from the leaders.
Punty read: This is the classic “don’t get too far back” country 1400m. No.2 Puissance Playboy with blinkers first time is the big tell: they want him switched on, closer, and travelling. If he lands midfield with cover, he’s the one with first crack. Watch for the wind too — the ones that over-race early will be the first to chuck it in.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Puissance Playboy (No.2) — $2.45 / $2.20
Prob 30.3% | Value: 0.99x
Bet $15.00 Win, return $36.75
Why Slow tempo suits the horse that can roll into the race early, and the market’s been leaning his way hard.
2. Market Player (No.7) — $6.50 / $2.83
Prob 12.0% | Value: 0.36x
Bet No Bet
Why Needs the race to fall apart, and this tempo says it won’t.
3. Cobar Sky (No.6) — $26.00 / $4.50
Prob 8.1% | Value: 0.30x
Bet No Bet
Why Can run a race, but you’re asking for a lot at the trip in a sit-sprint.
Roughie: Secret Intent (No.10) — $19.00 / $2.70
Prob 39.3% | Value: 0.87x
Bet No Bet
Why If they crawl and then sprint, he’s one who can stick on and pinch a placing with the right peel.
Quinella: 2, 6 — $15
Why No.2 is the class/top hope, and No.6 is the blowout if the race turns into a messy scramble late.
Punty's Pick: Puissance Playboy (No.2) $2.45 Win
Blinkers on, backed, and maps to be in the right postcode.
Race 3 – The “Actually A Good Race” BM58+
Race type: BenchMark 58+, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate — should be run honestly without turning into a lane raffle.
Punty read: No.1 Zadows Landing is the Esperance specialist type: knows where the winning gaps are and doesn’t panic when they tack on mid-race. No.4 Harlequin Prancer is the big threat — genuine, tough, and can sprint off a decent tempo. No.10 Rock Of Kaha is the ultimate “don’t laugh” runner: big odds, but if the wind turns this into a grind and the faves get lazy, he can lob into the frame.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Zadows Landing (No.1) — $2.80 / $1.60
Prob 34.3% | Value: 1.28x
Bet $17.50 Win, return $49.00
Why Proven at the track and looks the one who can absorb pressure and still kick.
2. Harlequin Prancer (No.4) — $3.00 / $1.60
Prob 64.5% | Value: 1.02x
Bet $7.50 Place, return $12.00
Why Hard fit, honest, and gets the kind of run where the wind doesn’t bully him.
3. Rock Of Kaha (No.10) — $67.00 / $3.40
Prob 21.5% | Value: 0.72x
Bet No Bet
Why It’s a “needs the stars” job, but the price says you don’t need much to be interested.
Roughie: Lacie Ace (No.9) — $10.00 / $4.50
Prob 25.6% | Value: 1.14x
Bet No Bet
Why If the top two eyeball each other early, she’s the one who can pinch it late with the last crack.
Quinella: 1, 10 — $15
Why No.1 is the obvious anchor and No.10 is the “blow the roof off the pub” partner if he turns up.
Punty's Pick: Harlequin Prancer (No.4) $1.60 Place
Tough type who finds the line even when conditions get ugly.
Race 4 – Speed Merchants Class 2
Race type: Class 2, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine — No.3 rolls forward, others hunting cover from that wind.
Punty read: No.1 Favaios is the safe option to run top three, even if he’s not screaming “put the house on”. No.2 Three Ay Em is the value spice — pace-advantaged and if he gets the right drag into it, he’s the one that can swamp them. The real grenade is No.6 Military Action first-up off a big break: if he’s forward enough, he’s right in this up to his ears.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Three Ay Em (No.2) — $13.00 / $4.30
Prob 29.5% | Value: 1.06x
Bet No Bet
Why The set-up suits, but you’re relying on him sticking a proper top-three finish.
2. Favaios (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.60
Prob 65.0% | Value: 0.87x
Bet $15.00 Place, return $24.00
Why Maps to be in the fight and doesn’t need to do anything freakish to run a drum.
3. Guard The Mullah (No.4) — $4.00 / $1.90
Prob 32.6% | Value: 0.52x
Bet No Bet
Why Can win, but gets back and needs tempo + luck.
Roughie: Military Action (No.6) — $19.00 / $6.30
Prob 18.3% | Value: 0.96x
Bet No Bet
Why If he’s wound up first-up and they overdo it in front, he’s the one that can blouse them late.
Exacta Standout: 6 / 2, 1, 4 — $15
Why If the first-upper is the real deal, you’re just hunting which of the main hopes fills second.
Punty's Pick: Favaios (No.1) $1.60 Place
Gets every chance to land in the first three from the soft run.
Race 5 – Esperance Sprint (Punters & Drinkers Special)
Race type: BenchMark 70+, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate but competitive — plenty want a spot, nobody wants the wind in the face.
Punty read: This is the kind of race where your “best horse” can still get stiffed. No.2 Keep Attacking is the play at the price — if he’s ready fresh, he can park in the moving line and rip home. No.3 Dothraki is the old pro: on-pace, tough, and always around the money, but you’re taking unders for the win so we play safer. No.1 Hilton is a live danger if he gets the right run into it, but he’s been on the drift.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Keep Attacking (No.2) — $7.00 / $3.00
Prob 22.5% | Value: 2.02x
Bet $18.00 Win, return $126.00
Why Fresh, dangerous at this trip, and this is the price range you want to swing at.
2. Dothraki (No.3) — $4.60 / $1.20
Prob 51.2% | Value: 0.47x
Bet $7.00 Place, return $8.40
Why He’ll be there when it matters — safer to take the “run top three” angle in a race with traffic.
3. Hilton (No.1) — $5.50 / $5.30
Prob 36.4% | Value: 1.49x
Bet No Bet
Why Absolutely can win, but we’re already loaded up.
Roughie: Debonnaire (No.7) — $8.50 / $3.50
Prob 28.5% | Value: 1.96x
Bet No Bet
Why If they go too hard and fan late, he’s the one who can sprint over the top.
Trifecta Box: 2, 3, 7, 1 — $15
Why Four genuine hopes and a race shape that screams “something runs on into the numbers”.
Punty's Pick: Dothraki (No.3) $1.20 Place
On-pace pro who makes his own luck in a busy sprint.
Race 6 – Provincial Series Heat (Wind Tunnel Edition)
Race type: Class 5, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate with multiple leaders — whoever gets cover wins the fashion parade.
Punty read: No.11 Hard Solo is the kind of horse you want in a gusty 1100m: parks up, gets into rhythm, and doesn’t need a miracle. No.1 Meat Pie Artie is a proper winning chance, but the price is tight and this race has enough speed pressure to make it awkward. No.4 Oregon Hiker is the spicy improver if he can find a trail from the carpark draw.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Meat Pie Artie (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.67
Prob 29.5% | Value: 1.20x
Bet No Bet
Why He’s a winning chance, but we’re not donating in this price zone today.
2. Hard Solo (No.11) — $2.70 / $1.57
Prob 43.7% | Value: 1.01x
Bet $15.00 Place, return $42.00
Why Maps to be in the first wave and gets every chance to fight out the finish.
3. Oregon Hiker (No.4) — $21.00 / $4.90
Prob 17.0% | Value: 0.69x
Bet No Bet
Why If they go mad up front, he’s the one swooping down the outside like a late Uber Eats order.
Roughie: Royal Accolade (No.2) — $8.00 / $1.80
Prob 42.4% | Value: 0.63x
Bet No Bet
Why If the inside runs well and he gets the right sit, he’s absolutely a top-three threat.
Quinella: 1, 4 — $15
Why No.1 is the main winning profile, and No.4 is the blowout if the pace cooks the leaders.
Punty's Pick: Hard Solo (No.11) $2.80 Place
Gets the map to avoid the wind pain and stay in the fight.
Race 7 – Esperance Cup (The Chaos Kitchen)
Race type: BenchMark 72+, 2010m
Map & tempo: Moderate — but with this many runners, “moderate” can turn to madness in one bad mid-race move.
Punty read: Big field Cup and the fave No.2 Arcadia Knight is a backmarker type — always a danger in Esperance if they don’t overdo it early. No.12 The Jester's Son is the value bomber: if he stays and gets into the race at the right time, he can win and make everyone spill their beer. No.3 Outspoken Lad is pace-advantaged but wide; if he works too hard, he’ll be walking the last 100 like he’s carrying a fridge. No.13 True Chance is the “runs a drum” hope — just needs luck from the draw.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Arcadia Knight (No.2) — $2.70 / $1.57
Prob 22.6% | Value: 0.83x
Bet $15.00 Win, return $40.50
Why Class edge in the Cup, and if they roll along even slightly, his finish is the best weapon.
2. Outspoken Lad (No.3) — $5.00 / $3.00
Prob 36.7% | Value: 1.12x
Bet No Bet
Why Right profile for this tempo, but the draw makes the run messy.
3. True Chance (No.13) — $7.50 / $4.90
Prob 37.2% | Value: 1.86x
Bet No Bet
Why If he finds cover and gets out at the right time, he’s a massive place chance.
Roughie: The Jester's Son (No.12) — $15.00 / $4.20
Prob 28.8% | Value: 1.23x
Bet No Bet
Why If the leaders stack up mid-race and the swoopers can build, he’s the knockout punch.
Quinella: 2, 12 — $15
Why The fave + the big value stayer — if the Cup runs to script, this is the best bang-for-buck combo.
Punty's Pick: True Chance (No.13) $4.90 Place
If he gets any sort of cover from that draw, he’s right in the top-three fight.
Race 8 – Last Race Legends (aka “Don’t Chase”)
Race type: BenchMark 58+, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate — but it’s an open handicap, so expect a few wild mid-race moves.
Punty read: No.2 Midnight Rush is the on-pace runner with the right set-up — if he controls the speed and gets cover at the right moments, he can kick. No.5 Stepchild is the backmarker who needs the tempo to lift, but she’ll be charging late. No.4 More Likely is the favourite and looks a fair place hope, but you can’t just assume it’s “sorted” in a race this open. No.13 Small Town Ruby is the market rocket — if she lands in the first half with cover, she can absolutely pinch it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Midnight Rush (No.2) — $6.00 / $4.20
Prob 18.3% | Value: 1.51x
Bet $15.00 Win, return $90.00
Why Maps to be prominent, and in an open race you want the horse making their own luck.
2. Stepchild (No.5) — $5.50 / $3.30
Prob 37.8% | Value: 1.47x
Bet No Bet
Why She’ll be hitting the line, but needs tempo and gaps — not a lock.
3. More Likely (No.4) — $3.60 / $2.30
Prob 39.0% | Value: 1.05x
Bet No Bet
Why Obvious hope, but you’re paying for it in a race that can throw a curveball.
Roughie: Small Town Ruby (No.13) — $14.00 / $1.60
Prob 28.3% | Value: 0.53x
Bet No Bet
Why If she finds the right spot early and the leaders get a breather, she’s the one who can steal it.
Trifecta Standout: 2 / 5, 4 — $15
Why Anchor the on-pacer to win, and let the two obvious chasers fight out the minors.
Punty's Pick: More Likely (No.4) $2.30 Place
In an open last, take the favourite to run top three and don’t do your head.
SEQUENCE LANES — SINGLE OPTIMISED TICKET
EARLY QUADDIE (Races 1–4)
Smart: 1, 6, 4 / 2, 7, 6, 8 / 1, 4, 10 / 6, 2, 1 (108 combos x $0.37 = $40) — 37% flexi
Punty's take: Pretty tidy early: a couple of legs you can keep tight, and you’re hunting one price result to make it worth the hustle.
QUADDIE (Races 5–8)
Smart: 2, 7, 3, 1 / 1, 4, 2 / 12, 2, 3, 13 / 2, 5, 13 (144 combos x $0.35 = $50) — 35% flexi
Punty's take: This is the “hold my beer” quaddie — Cup + open last means you’re basically buying a lotto ticket with better jokes.
BIG 6 (Races 3–8)
Smart: 1, 4 / 6, 2 / 2, 7 / 1, 4 / 12, 2, 3, 13 / 2, 5 (128 combos x $0.31 = $40) — 31% flexi
Punty's take: Still a tough ask (six legs is a cruel mistress), but at least we’re giving ourselves a real flexi shot instead of a pocket-change dream.
NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK
1 - The Wind Is The Stewards Today
If you’re three-deep with no cover into a 33km/h gust, you’re not “working”, you’re donating. Prioritise horses that can smother up.
2 - Slow Tempo R2: Don’t Be Last
That Race 2 shape screams sit-sprint — if your horse is spotting them six lengths at the 600m, start practising your excuses early.
3 - Cup Value Lurking Under The Favourite
Everyone sees No.2 in the Cup, but No.12 The Jester's Son is the kind of price that turns a “nice day” into a “call your boss, you’re sick tomorrow” day if he gets the right run.
FINAL WORD FROM THE DEGEN DEN
If you’re up, don’t get brave. If you’re down, don’t get stupid. We’re here to punt like professionals and carry on like absolute loose units. Gamble Responsibly.
Punty's Wrap-Up
The Wrap Esperance - The wind won more races than we did
Puissance Playboy did the job like a proper grown-up in Race 2, and we banked a couple of nice little place collects with Harlequin Prancer (Race 3) and Favaios (Race 4). The Cup was nearly our “call the boss” moment with The Jester’s Son flashing past the post 2nd in a photo, but we didn’t pull the trigger. Big headline: cover mattered all day — if you were three-deep into that gust, you were basically doing community service.
How It Unfolded
Early it played pretty close to the preview: on-pace or first half with a smother was the sweet spot, and the sit-sprint warning was real (Race 2 was a “don’t be last” special). The market wasn’t mucking around either — when something landed in the right spot and had any kind of class edge, it went bang.
Mid-card is where it got nasty: Race 5 turned into the classic “everyone wants cover, nobody gets it” bunfight and a proper blowout popped. Late, the Cup didn’t reward the prettiest closer’s run — it rewarded the horse that got into the race at the right time and fought. That pretty much confirmed the original read: stop chasing lanes, start chasing cover.
The Scoreboard
Straight bets kept us breathing, but the lotto stuff (exotics/quaddies/Big 6) absolutely kneecapped the wallet.
Total staked $400.00, returned $66.75 → down $333.25 for the day.
Winners (Straight-Out)
R2 Puissance Playboy — $15.00 Win @ $2.00 → +$15.00
R3 Harlequin Prancer — $7.50 Place @ $1.30 → +$2.25
R4 Favaios — $15.00 Place @ $1.80 → +$12.00
Big 3 Multi Result
Missed.
Legs: R2 No.2 Puissance Playboy (won), R3 No.1 Zadows Landing (2nd), R7 No.2 Arcadia Knight (3rd).
We were alive after Race 2, then got mugged by “close but no cigar” twice.
Punty's Picks — How'd They Go?
- R1: Show On The Road Place — 6th. Looked like the kind that should park and box-seat, but got beaten for the cosy run and never really found a kick when it counted.
- R2: Puissance Playboy Win — BANG! Won at $2.00, +$15. Blinkers on, landed close enough, said “see ya” when they sprinted.
- R3: Harlequin Prancer Place — BANG! Won the race at $2.40, +$2.25 for us. The tough on-speed type in an honest-run race… exactly what you want when the wind’s being a pest.
- R4: Favaios Place — BANG! Won at $4.70, +$12. Got the run, got the breaks, and actually finished the job (love that for us).
- R5: Dothraki Place — 4th. On-pacer looked the safe “run a drum” play, but the race got messy and the blowout swooper pinched it while we were still doing the maths.
- R6: Hard Solo Place — 5th. Map said “first wave with cover”, but it was Meat Pie Artie’s day up on top and we were left chasing.
- R7: True Chance Place — 6th. Needed cover and luck from the carpark draw and didn’t get either; Cup tempo/tactics had him chasing mid-race instead of building late.
- R8: More Likely Place — Won at $2.20. Favourite did favourite things and just got it done in an open-ish last.
What We Learned — The Factors That Mattered
Cover was the story. Not “inside/outside”, not “lanes”, not “sectional wizardry” — just who got to smother up and when. The day punished anything that had to do work early into the breeze, especially in the sprints where everyone’s trying to pinch the cheap spot like it’s the last seat on the train.
Tempo calls mostly stacked up. Race 2 was the poster child: slow-ish shape, don’t be giving them a start, and Puissance Playboy was close enough to pounce and put them away. When Esperance turns into a sit-sprint, you want something that can hold a spot and quicken — not something that needs the Red Sea to part from the 600m.
Where we missed: we flirted with “safe” place angles in races that were actually proper traps. Race 5 is the one — competitive sprint, cover war, and the blowout winner (First Law) is exactly what happens when the favourites all cop little bits of inconvenience and one runner gets the dream cart into it. Also in the Cup, backing the classy closer for the win meant we needed the race run to suit; instead it was won by the runner who got into the fight at the right time and refused to fold.
The factor that defined the day: wind management — which is really just tactics and positioning. Next time you’ve got a gusty Esperance day, upgrade: horses that can land top half with a bum to follow. Downgrade: anything likely to be posted three-wide, and anything relying on a big last-to-first loop unless it’s lengths better than the field.
Track Read — How The Map Played Out
The map lesson was simple: being “near the speed” mattered, but being “near the speed with cover” mattered more. When they were forced to do it the hard way, they didn’t just get beaten — they got tired and vulnerable late.
Leaders didn’t just brain them all day, and backmarkers didn’t just swoop them all day either. The winners were the ones who got the economical run and timed the move — Race 2 was control-and-kick, Race 5 was chaos-and-swoop, and the Cup was tactics and fight. If you rode like you were allergic to cover, you were cooked.
Quick Hits (Race-by-Race)
- R1: Written Sin ($8.90) — Punty top pick I Had A Dream ran 2nd
- R2: Puissance Playboy ($2.00) — BANG Win +$15.00
- R3: Harlequin Prancer ($2.40) — BANG Place +$2.25 (top pick Zadows Landing ran 2nd)
- R4: Favaios ($4.70) — BANG Place +$12.00
- R5: First Law ($29.00) — Punty top pick Keep Attacking ran unplaced
- R6: Meat Pie Artie ($2.80) — Punty top pick Meat Pie Artie ran 1st
- R7: Outspoken Lad ($4.00) — Punty top pick Arcadia Knight ran 3rd
- R8: More Likely ($2.20) — Punty top pick Midnight Rush ran unplaced