Saturday, 16 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Centenary Florin likely to lead and the backmarkers relying on the straight wind-up
Punty read: Centenary Florin has the map to make this a rolling test, and that matters at Flemington when the straight is long enough to make leaders feel like they've got to run a marathon after the bend. Resonant is honest and has the right profile to hit the line, but the price is skinny enough to make me itchy. Meness is the sort of horse the market loves to sniff around with gear changes and a nice pedigree, but he still has to prove he's up to this class. Mongolian Hero is the smoky if the speed gets silly and the closers are allowed to build.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Centenary Florin (No.5) — $7.20 / $2.35 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 19.9% | Place: 60.6% | Value: 1.69x
Why Has the early control and the recent money says the stable likes what it's seeing; if he gets comfy in front, he's going to take some reeling in.
2. Resonant (No.1) — $3.35 / $1.37 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 48.3% | Value: 0.58x
Why A real chance — but at $1.37 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Meness (No.2) — $8.20 / $2.30 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 32.4% | Value: 0.88x
Why The gear tweak is interesting and the market's had a sniff, but he's still got a bit to prove in this lot.
Roughie: Mongolian Hero (No.3) — $33.00 / $6.00 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 31.7% | Value: 3.44x
Why If the leaders go too hard and the tailwind helps the swoopers, he's the one that can whack the exotics at a silly number.
Race type: Handicap, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, so it's a crawl-then-sprint affair and the jockeys who panic early will be buying lunch
Punty read: This is the sort of race where they trot, shuffle, and then pretend the last 600m is a state of emergency. Different Gravy is the one with the right blend of class and freshness to deal with a muddling tempo, while Brave Danza has been punched in the market and looks the sort who can stalk and hold a spot. Miewa is fitter now but needs luck from the map, and Catch The Moon is the roughie who can sneak into it if the pace goes to sleep and they turn it into a sit-and-sprint.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Different Gravy (No.1) — $6.45 / $2.40 🏆 10TH
Bet $4.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 14.7% | Place: 40.9% | Value: 1.13x
Why Freshened, blinkers on, and proven at Flemington - that's a proper recipe when the race shape turns into a tactical mess.
2. Brave Danza (No.4) — $5.45 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.40
Prob 8.3% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 0.54x
Why The cash has come for him and the stable clearly means business; if he settles where he wants, he'll be there when the whips are out.
3. Miewa (No.2) — $9.90 / $3.30 🏆 16TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 23.2% | Value: 0.89x
Why He'll be running on, no doubt, but if they dawdle early he could be left with too much to do.
Roughie: Catch The Moon (No.11) — $16.50 / $4.60 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 21.1% | Value: 1.33x
Why If the pace collapses and he gets a clean crack late, this bloke can sneak into the finish like a dodgy mate slipping out before paying for dinner.
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with a few who can roll forward, which should make the late finishers very interested
Punty read: Madiyya gets the lovely sort of setup here - good draw, solid form, and enough tactical speed to avoid being bailed up when the pressure comes. Coco Jen loves a map and a rail run, while Xarpo is the sort that can keep punching if the tempo is truly honest. Gellhorn's the roughie with blinkers on, and the drift says the crowd's half asleep, which is exactly when a horse can sneak into the frame and ruin a few afternoons.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Madiyya (No.4) — $4.10 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 14.3% | Place: 41.3% | Value: 0.71x
Why Perfect enough map, solid enough class, and the sort of horse that can sit handy and kick when it matters.
2. Coco Jen (No.8) — $19.00 / $4.80 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 2.50x
Why A real chance — but at $4.80 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Xarpo (No.3) — $5.55 / $2.15 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 32.6% | Value: 0.73x
Why He can sit in the first wave and make himself counted, but he's got to settle cleanly or he'll be in a world of bother.
Roughie: Gellhorn (No.17) — $35.00 / $7.00 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 27.1% | Value: 3.70x
Why If the blinkers sharpen him up and the race gets run at a proper lick, he can rattle home and make a mess of the exotic pools.
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Concord Connie likely to get every chance and the rest trying to work out how to pinch the race
Punty read: Concord Connie is the obvious anchor and the market knows it, which usually means the next question is whether the price is too short to be fun. Flying Done is the one with a huge drift but can still be dangerous if the race falls apart and the long Flemington straight lets him wind up. The Volta and Humble Trader are the sort of horses that can capitalise if the favourite has one off day or gets dragged into a speed battle. Muthabara is the wild old knockout chance if the day turns weird.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Concord Connie (No.7) — $1.27 / $1.05 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$3.90
Prob 22.9% | Place: 67.2% | Value: 0.35x
Why She's the one with the class and the map, and if she lands where she wants she's going to be mighty hard to knock off.
2. Flying Done (No.1) — $25.50 / $3.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 4.11x
Why A real chance — but at $3.50 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. The Volta (No.9) — $11.50 / $2.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 38.5% | Value: 1.49x
Why Has the fitness and the right sort of stalking pattern, but needs the race to unfold beautifully.
Roughie: Our Chief (No.4) — $37.00 / $3.70 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 4.11x
Why Blinkers off and can be thereabouts if he lands handy, but the market's shown him the cold shoulder for a reason.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Bacash likely to roll forward and the tempo honest enough to sort the adults from the imposters
Punty read: This is where the card starts acting like a dodgy carnival game. Purple Streak is the one the model wants to lean on, but Job Done, Bacash and Brave Design all have enough going for them to make it a proper headache. The market's had a look at a few of them - some support makes sense, some looks like the sort of money you'd only place after three schooners. If Bacash gets a soft lead or sit, he could be a pain in the arse to run down.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Purple Streak (No.7) — $7.75 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 10.4% | Place: 31.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why Maps nicely enough to be in the firing line and has enough speed to be right on the corner if the race doesn't get too silly.
2. Job Done (No.4) — $25.50 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 30.2% | Value: 3.05x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Bacash (No.1) — $16.00 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 29.6% | Value: 1.88x
Why Could easily control the race if he finds the front and gets the right split, but he's not one to trust blindly in a pack.
Roughie: Jewel Bandit (No.5) — $40.50 / $7.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 26.0% | Value: 4.08x
Why If he jumps clean and the speed is genuinely hot, he can swoop late and make everyone look a bit stupid.
Race type: Handicap, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with enough speed on to give the on-pacers a fair go but not enough to totally torch the race
Punty read: This is a nice little setup for Oh Too Good if she can sit close enough without overdoing it, because the mare's got the toughness for this sort of mile. Zahrann has been smashed in the market and you can see why - fresh import, trial form, and the right kind of class profile. Wonder Boy is the obvious danger and should be thereabouts, but the model thinks he's a bit too skinny for the job. Lady Jones is the one who can punch a hole into the placings if the pace slackens and the outside lane opens up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.50 pool)
1. Oh Too Good (No.3) — $6.40 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 14.3% | Place: 46.6% | Value: 1.07x
Why She's the hard mare that keeps turning up and if she gets the race run to suit, she'll be right in it when the whips are cracking.
2. Zahrann (No.1) — $4.80 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 11.8% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.67x
Why The money has come for him for a reason - fresh, classy, and with enough upside to be dangerous if he lands in the first wave.
3. Wonder Boy (No.4) — $3.52 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 39.2% | Value: 0.48x
Why Honest as a dog's breakfast, but the price is short enough that you're paying for the name, not the bargain.
Roughie: Lady Jones (No.5) — $14.75 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 33.5% | Value: 1.66x
Why Maps to stalk and could be the one picking up the pieces if the front end gets a bit too clever.
Race type: Open, 2800m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, and over 2800m that means the jocks can't be mucking around or they'll be crying into their silks late
Punty read: This is a proper staying race where the map matters, but class and stamina matter even more. Changingoftheguard looks the one with the right engine to lead and make them do the hard yards, while American Wolf is the juicy value horse if they overcook it and the tailwind gives the backmarkers a sniff. Newlook has drifted but still has a case if he gets the right run through the middle stages. Basilinna is the smoky who can blow up a few exotics if the long trip turns into an honesty test.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Changingoftheguard (No.1) — $5.05 / $2.00 🏆 13TH
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 12.0% | Place: 35.2% | Value: 0.72x
Why Can roll along and make them chase, and if he gets the fractions right he's the one they all have to run down.
2. American Wolf (No.13) — $13.75 / $4.00 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 31.5% | Value: 1.72x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Newlook (No.4) — $16.00 / $3.80 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 30.3% | Value: 1.92x
Why The drift is ugly, but the staying setup gives him a route if the leader overdoes it.
Roughie: Basilinna (No.14) — $22.00 / $5.00 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 28.2% | Value: 2.42x
Why If this turns into a proper slog, she's the type who can keep finding while the others are gasping like extras in Saving Private Ryan.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, and that's exactly the sort of thing that can turn the straight into a highway for the late closers
Punty read: This is the race where the mugs get separated from their wallets. Stoli Bolli is the obvious favourite and the money says plenty of people are interested, but the price is too tight for my liking. Losesomewinmore is the model's first pick and gets the roughie guard treatment, which tells you the value is in the shape more than the price. Title Fighter is the one that can soak up the speed and rip home under the tailwind, while Pop Award is the old straight-six annoyer who can lob into the frame if the tempo turns feral.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Losesomewinmore (No.8) — $9.30 / $3.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$137.25
Prob 11.6% | Place: 34.4% | Value: 1.31x
Why The hot speed and long Flemington straight are exactly the ingredients this type wants; if the leaders go too hard, he gets a crack.
2. Stoli Bolli (No.12) — $3.23 / $1.55 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 31.2% | Value: 0.40x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Title Fighter (No.1) — $24.00 / $5.00 🏆 14TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 28.2% | Value: 2.69x
Why The straight and the wind suit his style if the race melts up front, and he can be the one flying late while the hotpots burn out.
Roughie: Pop Award (No.3) — $11.25 / $3.40 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 1.24x
Why He knows how to run a race down the straight, and if they go too hard early he's the sort that can look a hell of a lot better in the last 100m than he does at the 400m.
Race type: Handicap, 1800m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Mr Blunt likely to be in the right spot, but a few of the value runners are set up to make life awkward
Punty read: Mr Blunt is the class horse and the market has him where you'd expect, but this isn't a one-horse parade. Bullets High can stalk and fight on, Villasaurus is the strong mover who keeps running into the money, and Opening Address can nick the race if they let him settle in the right rhythm. Gregolimo is the lunatic price who has been backed from the clouds - that's not nothing, even if he's still a rough one to trust with the mortgage.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Mr Blunt (No.11) — $2.12 / $1.22 🏆 5TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 23.2% | Place: 59.8% | Value: 0.58x
Why He's the class and the consistency horse, and if he gets the right run stalking the speed he should be right in the thick of it.
2. Bullets High (No.3) — $19.50 / $3.60 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 40.0% | Value: 3.04x
Why A real chance — but at $3.60 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Villasaurus (No.2) — $12.50 / $2.60 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 39.7% | Value: 1.93x
Why Has been running on strongly and the market support says the stable likes the setup; he's a very live place player if he gets the right split.
Roughie: Opening Address (No.5) — $11.00 / $2.50 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 29.7% | Value: 1.20x
Why If he controls the race or gets a soft enough run, he can pinch a slice and make the favourite sweat.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,4,2 / 4,8,3 / 7,1,9 / 7,4,1 (81 combos x $0.50 = $40.50) -- 50% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,1,4 / 1,13,4 / 8,12,1 / 11,3,2 (81 combos x $0.50 = $40.50) -- 50% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 7 / 7 / 3 / 1 / 8 / 11 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Centenary Florin (Race 1, No.5)✗ — $7.20
2 - Different Gravy (Race 2, No.1)✗ — $6.45
3 - Madiyya (Race 3, No.4)✗ — $4.10
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Flemington's serving up a Good 4 with the rail out 4m and a tailwind up the straight, so the swoopers get a bloody decent tow home if the leaders go too hard early.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Flemington, 1100m-2800m card
Rail: Out 4m Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair early, with closers getting a real shot late)
Weather: Late shower or two, 18°C, humidity 60%, wind 29km/h N (watch for gusts and a strong push up the straight)
Early lane guess: Off the fence late in the straight looks the lane to be on if they're building momentum
Tempo profile: A mix of honest speed races and a couple of proper sit-and-sprint grinders; the straight-six and staying races should punish the impatient
Jockeys to follow:
Craig Williams, still the bloke you want when the race gets tactical and the split-second decisions matter
Jye McNeil, can build momentum late, which is gold with this tailwind straight
Jamie Mott, pops up in the right spots and is handy when the map is messy
Stables to respect:
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (6 runners), they've got a stack of live chances and a few market moves pointing their way
T Busuttin & N Young (4 runners), sneaky strong through the middle and staying races
D T O'Brien (4 runners), several map-and-fitness runners who can nick a race if the tempo goes right
Punty's take:
Flemington's a funny old bastard when the rail is out and the wind's towing them home. You can still win on the speed if you control the race, but if the front runners burn petrol like they're in a Fast & Furious street race, the last 200m turns into a long, ugly march for the swoopers. That's why I'm leaning into horses that can sit midfield, peel wide and sustain a run rather than the ones trying to pinch it on the paint.
There are a few proper anchor points on the card, but the overall feel is still a bit of a pub poker game rather than a sit-down chess match. Ben, Will & Jd Hayes have a heap of live runners, the market keeps sniffing around a few key setups, and the straight-six looks like the race where the crowd will get mugged if they blindly follow the shiny favourite. The wind helps the finishers, but only if they've got a touch of petrol left after the early carnage.
What it means for you:
Don't go full Mad Max and fire into every race like a loose unit with a fresh credit card. Races 1, 2, 4, 6 and 9 are where the cleaner map stories live, while the straight-six in Race 8 and the staying slog in Race 7 are where the chaos can chew up a ticket in a heartbeat. Place money and disciplined each-way plays are your best mates today; use the win side when the map screams "this thing can control it" and don't be afraid to protect yourself where the field looks like a blood-and-biscuit special.
The best way to attack it is to anchor the races where the pace and the draw line up, then let the value horses do the heavy lifting in the exotics. If you're building multis, keep them skinny enough to survive and don't get seduced by every drifter and firmer like it's the last schooner at the pub. There's enough value floating around in the right spots that you don't need to be a hero.