Saturday, 16 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: BENCHMARK 72, 1700m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Viewpoint should get the best run of it, while Aix En Provence and Monkhana are likely to be working a bit harder than they'd like
Punty read: Oakfield Saturn has had the market throw the toys out of the cot, but the form says he's right in this after a genuine return and a horror follow-up from a wide alley. Viewpoint is the obvious on-pace player, but this doesn't look like a free kick for the favourite. Change My Address is the one that can rattle home if the tempo lobs into a proper grinder, while Aix En Provence is the sort who'll be there to annoy you at the line without being the bloke who buys the beers.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Oakfield Saturn (No.2) — $10.20 / $3.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$82.50
Prob 12.1% | Place: 43.4% | Value: 1.76x
Why Good return last time in, then got buried in the provincial final from a bad gate. This setup is cleaner and the horse looks ready to bounce back.
2. Viewpoint (No.6) — $4.30 / $1.80 🏆 14TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 44.5% | Value: 0.56x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Change My Address (No.10) — $8.25 / $2.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 36.3% | Value: 1.04x
Why Can be running on late, but needs the right race shape and a bit of luck from back there. Better as a watching brief than a full-on fling.
Roughie: Aix En Provence (No.1) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.15x
Why Honest enough, but the Good 4 form says he's got to find a bit more than the others.
Race type: CLASS 3, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Autumn King should land midfield with a lovely run, while Moon Sweeper and Solitario are the types who can lob into the race if the tempo doesn't turn nasty
Punty read: Autumn King is the one they all have to beat. Good return, nice map, and the money's come in hard enough to make you sit up and notice. Moon Sweeper is the danger if he can switch off and get the right tow into the straight, but the drift says the market's not blindly swallowing him. Hip Hip Ole is the roughie with a bit of a story - if this race turns into a late scrap, he can be the bloke sneaking past the drunk guy at the bar.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Autumn King (No.2) — $2.60 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$14.30
Prob 15.0% | Place: 51.4% | Value: 0.31x
Why Form's been honest, the stable know what they're doing, and the firming tells you he's the one connections want to land on.
2. Moon Sweeper (No.1) — $6.90 / $2.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 0.80x
Why A real chance — but at $2.45 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Solitario (No.6) — $10.30 / $3.50 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 30.8% | Value: 1.10x
Why Has enough ability, but the recent run says he's still figuring out how to finish the job. Needs the race to fall in his lap a touch more.
Roughie: Hip Hip Ole (No.14) — $21.50 / $5.50 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 27.4% | Value: 2.28x
Why If the leaders soften each other up and this turns into a late dash, he's the sort who can clatter home and make a mess of the exotics.
Race type: LISTED, 1100m
Map & tempo: Hot pace; Moscatel and the on-pacers should be rolling along, so the swoopers need their timing bang on
Punty read: This is your proper speed-vs-speed brawl. Moscatel looks the obvious one after bolting in on debut, but the map isn't exactly a picnic and the drift on some of the speed horses tells you the race could get chaotic in the last 200m. Hellenic Belle is the filly I'd want to be on if I were shopping for value - she has the kind of profile that says "don't trust the debut manners, trust the upside". Found The Gold is the smokey that's got the profile of a horse who can absolutely ruin the party if they overcook it in front.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Hellenic Belle (No.2) — $11.25 / $3.30 🏆 13TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 12.6% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 2.14x
Why Has the race fitness now and gets the kind of draw that lets her stalk and pounce instead of doing all the hard work herself.
2. Moscatel (No.3) — $2.62 / $1.30 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 46.9% | Value: 0.43x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Found The Gold (No.6) — $18.00 / $4.80 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 26.9% | Value: 2.38x
Why The sort of horse who can make the last 100m look ugly for the leaders if they go too hard too early.
Roughie: La Gitana (No.1) — $9.30 / $2.90 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 0.89x
Why Can improve first-up, but the drift and the map say she's more of a minor place player than a smash-the-table winner.
Race type: BENCHMARK 72, 1300m
Map & tempo: Hot pace; Lightning Glory and Hereward should be burning fuel early, with Nitro lurking like Batman in the shadows
Punty read: Nitro is the class act, full stop. The race should be run to suit a horse with a bit of sting late, and if the speed lads go too hard the way they sometimes do when they've had a bit too much confidence, he can mow them down. Kujenga is a proper live danger if the cross-over gear sharpens him up, and Hereward is the one the map likes even if the drift says the public can't quite settle on him. Comedy is the sort of backmarker you throw into exotics and hope the race turns into a country music divorce.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Nitro (No.11) — $2.96 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 16.4% | Place: 41.0% | Value: 0.48x
Why The class horse with the best overall profile in a race where the front-runners could hand him the last crack at them.
2. Kujenga (No.7) — $16.00 / $4.00 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 26.9% | Value: 2.29x
Why A real chance — but at $4.00 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Hereward (No.8) — $30.00 / $6.00 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 23.9% | Value: 4.14x
Why Big market move against him but the map still gives him a sneaky chance to hang on longer than the crowd expects.
Roughie: Comedy (No.4) — $33.50 / $6.50 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 20.6% | Value: 4.14x
Why If the tempo goes full Mad Max, he's the one who can run on and pinch a slice of the prize.
Race type: BENCHMARK 78, 1700m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Uzziah and Sacrify look the ones most likely to force the tempo, with Amreekiyah getting a lovely stalking run
Punty read: Amreekiyah is the clear one to beat - proper class, proper money, proper setup. The market's come for him like it's Black Friday at Myer, and it's easy to see why. Warrior For Peace has enough zip to be involved again, while Cormac T is the sort of horse that keeps showing up in the exotics and wrecking your day if you ignore him. Uzziah is the roughie who can go a bit cheeky if they let him roll, but the last bit at 1700m is where the oxygen meter starts blaring.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Amreekiyah (No.16) — $4.50 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 16.1% | Place: 55.2% | Value: 0.92x
Why Heavily backed, maps nicely enough, and the stable clearly means business. If he gets the run, he's the one they have to catch.
2. Warrior For Peace (No.18) — $5.85 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 46.7% | Value: 0.92x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Cormac T (No.13) — $23.00 / $5.50 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 30.8% | Value: 2.85x
Why Keeps turning up, and if the leaders overdo it, this bloke can pick up the pieces late.
Roughie: Sounds Unusual (No.8) — $11.25 / $3.50 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 1.38x
Why The track and tempo can suit if he lands in the right rhythm, but he's more the bloke you salute than trust with the mortgage.
Race type: BENCHMARK 78, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Wanaruah and Straand Beauty should show speed, while Call Me Gorgeous and the others try to reel them in
Punty read: Wanaruah is the on-speed anchor and the one who gets the ideal map if the race doesn't go completely feral. Call Me Gorgeous is the one everyone's gravitating to, and fair enough too, but the price is skinny and the saver line isn't exactly a bargain bin special. Wollzeile is the sneaky one with the right form profile - the stable know how to have a crack and she gets in well enough. Shropshire Lad is the spicy roughie if the tempo turns into a late burn-up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Wanaruah (No.4) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$23.62
Prob 12.8% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 0.86x
Why Maps to lead or sit on the bunny and should get every possible chance if he can see out the last bit.
2. Wollzeile (No.15) — $13.25 / $3.80 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 31.0% | Value: 2.02x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Shropshire Lad (No.18) — $22.50 / $5.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 23.6% | Value: 2.62x
Why The market's warmed to him and the late work has been sound enough, but he still needs the leaders to feel the pinch.
Roughie: Confess Our Dreams (No.8) — $40.00 / $8.00 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 19.3% | Value: 4.19x
Why A proper swooper's chance if the front-runners start coughing up the last furlong.
Race type: LISTED, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Mercy Me should make it honest, and the on-pacers will all get their shot
Punty read: This is a proper speed race with a stack of fillies who know how to travel. Cantiamo is the one that gives you the shivers because she keeps winning, keeps bringing the right form, and still looks like the market hasn't quite caught up to the pattern. Akaysha is a classy animal but the drift is a red flag the size of the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Miss Freelove is the value play in the race - she maps to get a nice drag into it and should relish being fitter. Gorgeous has the right kind of upside, but that market support is giving off "something's going on" vibes.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Cantiamo (No.5) — $15.75 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 9.0% | Place: 26.7% | Value: 2.19x
Why Honest, tough, and keeps finding a way. If they overplay the speed, she's exactly the type to arrive late and pinch it.
2. Akaysha (No.2) — $5.35 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 31.0% | Value: 0.71x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Gorgeous (No.13) — $5.85 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 0.70x
Why Has ability, but from back there she's going to need the race to crack open like a cheap tin of sardines.
Roughie: Miss Freelove (No.4) — $12.75 / $4.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 24.7% | Value: 1.52x
Why Back into a race that should suit her map better, and the new winkers can wake her up enough to be a pain in the backside.
Race type: LISTED, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; The Instructor and Compelling Truth likely to show speed, but the wide draws make this a tactics race more than a brute-force sprint
Punty read: This looks like one of those races where the form guide will swear black and blue and then the track says "nah, not today". Know Thyself isn't in this race - hold up, wrong leg - but the whole card's got that energy. King Of Sparta is the one with the class if he can cope with the long spell, though the market has absolutely chucked a wobbly on him. Catch The Glory is the runner I respect most as an each-way type, because he's got the right form and enough map sense to keep himself in the hunt. Brudenell is the roughie who can spoil the picnic if the race gets messy and the old legs decide to stretch out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. King Of Sparta (No.1) — $19.75 / $5.00 🏆 9TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 8.1% | Place: 24.0% | Value: 2.46x
Why Resumes off a very long spell, but trial work's been honest and the class is there if the engine is wound up enough.
2. Catch The Glory (No.5) — $13.25 / $3.60 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 24.8% | Value: 1.59x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Bev's Nine (No.9) — $5.95 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 28.1% | Value: 0.69x
Why Love the winning habit, but this setup and the price say he's more a watch-and-learn job today.
Roughie: Brudenell (No.3) — $40.00 / $8.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.9% | Place: 17.9% | Value: 4.15x
Why Older head, plenty of wins, and if the race gets the right tempo he's the sort who can bludgeon into the finish like a weary villain in an action movie.
Race type: GROUP 3, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Oh Diamond Lil looks the natural leader, with Surfin' Bird and Arriving Home poised to stalk
Punty read: Arriving Home is the one that screams value in a race where the market has piled into the obvious shapes. Tuileries can bounce back if the firmer surface helps him settle better, while Oh Diamond Lil gets the tongue tie and should be right in the thick of it if she gets it cheap enough on the bunny. Harlem Queen is the big roughie with a proper reason to be respected - barrier one and the right tactical profile can make a horse look twice as good as its price says.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Arriving Home (No.12) — $15.50 / $5.00 🏆 13TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 8.7% | Place: 32.1% | Value: 2.03x
Why Strong late-profile horse who should appreciate the setup if the pace isn't daft, and he's got the right kind of shape to land in the finish.
2. Oh Diamond Lil (No.6) — $8.50 / $3.00 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 32.2% | Value: 0.95x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Surfin' Bird (No.9) — $2.54 / $1.40 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 47.3% | Value: 0.28x
Why Rock-solid and honest, but the market has absolutely hammered her and that's enough to make the wallet itch.
Roughie: Harlem Queen (No.5) — $15.75 / $4.80 🏆 16TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.71x
Why If the race gets messy, this mare can sneak into the frame and make the exotics sweat.
Race type: LISTED, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Whinchat should ensure they roll along, while Know Thyself gets the perfect sort of setup
Punty read: Know Thyself is the headline act here - the stable's got him in the zone, the map's kind, and he's got the sort of profile that screams "watch me if they don't go too quick". Linebacker is the favourite and deservedly so on raw ability, but the price is awfully thin for a race with a couple of genuine dangers and a few roughies that can absolutely throw a chair at the TV. Gallant Star and Estadio Mestalla are the spicy bits for the exotics and place plays - both have enough talent to bite if the tempo gets sharp.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Know Thyself (No.7) — $10.40 / $3.30 🏆 7TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 13.0% | Place: 34.0% | Value: 2.00x
Why Everything about the setup says he's ready to peak, and with the right run he can sit there and outlast the more obvious types.
2. Linebacker (No.2) — $2.49 / $1.35 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 41.8% | Value: 0.39x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Gallant Star (No.10) — $32.00 / $6.50 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 22.7% | Value: 4.05x
Why The roughie that can make the race explode if the leaders overdo it and the swoopers get the last laugh.
Roughie: Estadio Mestalla (No.1) — $15.00 / $4.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 1.71x
Why Honest enough and fitter for the run, but he often wants a bit more of a right-handed shove than this to truly fire.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2 / 11 / 7,16 / 4,15,18,8 (8 combos x $3.75 = $30.00) -- 375% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,2,13,4,3,7 / 1,5,9,3,2,11 / 12,6,9,5,1,14 / 7,2,10,1,3,13 (1296 combos x $0.03 = $38.88) -- 3% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 16 / 4 / 5 / 1 / 12 / 7 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Autumn King (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $2.60
2 - Hellenic Belle (Race 3, No.2)✗ — $11.25
3 - Nitro (Race 4, No.11)✗ — $2.96
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Scone's come up a proper snake pit: 10 races, a rail nudged out a touch, showers lurking like a dodgy sequel, and enough scratchings to make the maps look like they've been through a paper shredder. This is not a day for blindly following the shiny favourite who looks good in the photo and then never quite lands the punch. It's a day for reading the shape, trusting the speed maps, and getting after the horses that can handle the pressure cooker.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Scone, 1100-1700m card
Rail: +3m 1000m - 400m, True Remainder
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair to slightly leader-friendly if the showers stay away)
Weather: Showers increasing, 17C, humidity 89%, wind 11km/h WNW (watch for late-track softening and a bit of lane drift)
Early lane guess: Fence is live early, but in the sprints the pace horses should get their chance if they don't go full lunatic and burn each other out
Tempo profile: A real mixed bag - a few genuinely run sprints, a couple of midfield grinders, and then those ugly chaos races where one bad draw turns into a wet Wednesday at the TAB
Jockeys to follow:
Jason Collett, keeps turning up in the right races and is strong when the map gives him a target
Kerrin McEvoy, the old assassin; if he lands in the right spot, he usually turns up late and mean
Rachel King, ice in the veins, especially when the race gets messy and others start panicking
Stables to respect:
Annabel & Rob Archibald (many runners), plenty of live chances, and they've got a few here that have been crunched
Nathan Doyle (many runners), a couple of runners are mapping well and the market's sniffing around them
Bjorn Baker (many runners), always dangerous when the money comes for one and they map to land on speed
Punty's take:
This meeting has got that "one wrong move and you're cooked" energy. The sprint races are where the knives come out - especially Races 3, 4, 7, 8 and 10 - because the speed is genuine and the market is all over the shop. The mid-distance races are more about who gets the right run and who doesn't get trapped three deep like a poor bastard in a mosh pit.
Scone's Good 4 profile can be a bit cheeky: if the rain stays light, leaders and handy horses get their crack, but if those showers start to bite, the swoopers come into play and the whole meeting can flip faster than a Marvel plot twist. That means don't get seduced by the flashy favourite in every race - plenty of these are built for a sit, a squeeze, and a late shove.
The stables with intent are easy enough to spot: Baker, Doyle, Archibald, and the Waterhouse/Bott gang have live chances spread through the card. The market's already telling us a few stories too - some of these runners have been chopped like a bloke at Bunnings with a new credit card, and when the money lines up with the map, you pay attention. When it doesn't, you tread carefully and keep your shoes dry.
What it means for you:
Keep the aggression for the races where the map and the market agree - that's where the good oil lives. Races 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 all have proper value angles, but some are still too sticky to go full send, so the plan is to lean on place/value and not pretend we're invincible just because we've had a cup of coffee and a clean form guide.
If you're looking for banker material, the best stuff on the card is the runners with either a tactical advantage or a nasty little class edge from good draws: Autumn King in Race 2, Hellenic Belle in Race 3, Nitro in Race 4, and Know Thyself in Race 10. But don't be a mug and turn every one of them into a win-only death ride - this is a day to protect the bankroll and pick your punches. The roughies are there for garnish, not for pretending you're the second coming of Bart Cummings.