Wednesday, 13 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Class 5, 1650m
Map & tempo: genuine pace with Wah May Wai Wai likely rolling forward; backmarkers need luck and a clean lane
Punty read: This is one of those races where the map could make or break you. Telecom Power is the market bully, but from barrier 1 in a genuinely run race he's not getting a picnic - and with a few backmarkers needing the speed to collapse, there'll be some sweaty palms at the 300m. Podium and Setanta are the ones with the right sort of profile if the tempo is keen enough, while Prince Alex is the roughie who can hit the line if they overcook it up front.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Setanta (No.3) — $15.00 / $4.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$20.25
Prob 11.7% | Place: 25.3% | Value: 2.22x
Why Genuine pace helps and the gelding has been crying out for a cleaner run; if the front half goes too hard, he's the one who can finish over the top.
2. Podium (No.1) — $11.00 / $3.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 24.0% | Value: 1.53x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Telecom Power (No.5) — $3.80 / $1.75 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 23.7% | Value: 0.52x
Why The market's having a big old cuddle with him, but he's not a gift at this price and the map doesn't hand him the race on a plate.
Roughie: Prince Alex (No.2) — $14.00 / $3.80 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 23.6% | Value: 1.91x
Why Needs the pace to sting, but if the backmarkers swoop he's got the right sort of profile to ping a cheque.
Race type: Class 4, 1200m
Map & tempo: genuine pace with World Hero likely doing the front-line work; one of the trickier betting races on the card
Punty read: Nebraskan is the favourite, but the model's not sold and neither am I - not at those odds anyway. World Hero and Healthy Healthy are the ones who look the right sort of price if the pace turns into a proper burn-up, while the roughie King Oberon is the sneaky one if the leaders start feeling the pinch. It feels like the sort of race where the crowd gets hypnotised by the shortie and then wonders why the bloke at $17 got the money.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. World Hero (No.4) — $10.00 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$6.75
Prob 12.8% | Place: 22.5% | Value: 1.66x
Why Maps to lead and that usually matters at this trip; if he gets across cleanly, he's the one they'll have to run down.
2. Healthy Healthy (No.3) — $17.00 / $4.20 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 2.78x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Beauty Glory (No.1) — $5.00 / $2.25 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 18.8% | Value: 0.67x
Why On-pace type with enough zip, but the price is skinny and the value isn't there for mine.
Roughie: King Oberon (No.5) — $29.00 / $5.50 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 18.7% | Value: 3.84x
Why If the speed melts and he gets a suck run, he's the sort that can clatter home at a juicy number.
Race type: Class 3, 1650m
Map & tempo: moderate pace with Pray For Justice and Stormi likely rolling on; midfielders and handy sitters get their chance
Punty read: Here's the first race where Punty starts grinning like a bloke who found a twenty in an old jacket. Fivefortwo is the right sort of anchor, the map is fair enough, and the rough value is sitting right there with Super Unicorn and Igor Stravinsky if they get the tempo they want. Romantic Gladiator is short enough to make you squint, and the market's a bit too in love with the favourite for my liking.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Fivefortwo (No.1) — $5.50 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$1.05
Prob 19.6% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 1.37x
Why Has the best race shape for a tidy 1650m hit-out and the excuses the last couple of runs say he's ready to bounce.
2. Super Unicorn (No.9) — $15.00 / $3.30 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 28.8% | Value: 2.73x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Romantic Gladiator (No.7) — $2.15 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 0.37x
Why Short enough to be dangerous and the setup doesn't scream "take the crayon out and write your own ticket".
Roughie: Igor Stravinsky (No.3) — $23.00 / $4.20 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 24.5% | Value: 3.44x
Why Had excuses last time and if the pace stays honest he can get rolling off a softer run than most.
Race type: Class 4, 1650m
Map & tempo: genuine pace with Mighty Steed leading; plenty of runners trying to find the right lane
Punty read: This is the sort of race where the form guide looks neat until the gates open and it turns into a backyard wrestling match. Noble Pursuit gets the nod because the map and the staying profile line up nicely, but General Redwood is the sneaky roughie if you forgive the last run and believe the drift has gone too far. Romantic Laos is the sort who can get a soft ride from the inside, but the price is fair enough and not much more.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Noble Pursuit (No.5) — $6.50 / $2.35 🏆 5TH
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 11.8% | Place: 25.4% | Value: 1.02x
Why Maps to land in the right spot and gets the right sort of 1650m test to have a crack late.
2. Mega Mastermind (No.3) — $4.40 / $1.90 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 24.8% | Value: 0.67x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Romantic Laos (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.45 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.03x
Why The inside draw gives him every chance to stalk the right run, but he's not screaming "bet me blind".
Roughie: General Redwood (No.4) — $26.00 / $5.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 22.2% | Value: 3.47x
Why Big drift, but not always a death sentence - if the mare? no, the bloke - gets a cleaner run from the map, he's right in the finish.
Race type: Class 3, 1800m
Map & tempo: genuine pace with Liveandletlive likely controlling proceedings; the stamina test should separate the pretenders
Punty read: This is a proper old-school grinder and the pace story matters more than the hype. Liveandletlive will take some running down, but the one Punty wants to nick a piece of is The Auspicious on the place - fresh enough, map-friendly enough, and a price that's still fair in a race where the market has gone a bit bananas. Keefy is the roughie if they overdo it up front, but he's the sort of big-number play you only want if you're feeling loose and the espresso's hit.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Flying Luck (No.3) — $8.50 / $2.25 🏆 6TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 15.4% | Place: 30.5% | Value: 1.63x
Why Has the right sort of closing pattern if they go hard enough and the trip suits better than the recent market has suggested.
2. The Auspicious (No.6) — $6.00 / $1.90 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 30.3% | Value: 1.14x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Liveandletlive (No.1) — $3.20 / $1.32 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 30.0% | Value: 0.60x
Why Honest leader, but the odds are shorter than my patience on a Monday.
Roughie: Keefy (No.2) — $18.00 / $3.60 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 29.5% | Value: 3.30x
Why If the tempo's fierce and he gets the right tow into it, he'll be storming home late at a fat price.
Race type: Class 4, 1650m
Map & tempo: slow pace on paper, which makes early position and rhythm absolutely massive
Punty read: This is the first quaddie leg and it's a proper headache. Slow tempo means the bloke who controls his own destiny gets the edge, and Shooting To Top has the right sort of profile to do exactly that. The Azure and Sturdy Ruby are both live, but the market has gone a bit feral on a few others and I'm happy to side with the one that can put itself into the race early. Don't sleep on To Infinity either - the market's drifted, but if they dawdle he's not the worst roughie in the world.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Shooting To Top (No.3) — $10.00 / $3.20 🏆 5TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 16.2% | Place: 33.1% | Value: 2.13x
Why The slow pace should turn this into a tactical street fight, and he's the one with the speed to control the shape if he ping's cleanly.
2. The Azure (No.7) — $11.00 / $3.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 24.8% | Value: 1.63x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sturdy Ruby (No.2) — $18.00 / $4.60 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 23.3% | Value: 2.48x
Why Gets a workable map and has enough staying grunt to be dangerous if the tempo doesn't go silly.
Roughie: Harmony Galaxy (No.1) — $11.00 / $3.30 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 21.1% | Value: 1.35x
Why Good gate, fair enough map, and a trainer/jockey setup that can keep him in the firing line.
Race type: Class 4, 1200m
Map & tempo: hot pace with Smart Fighter, Vigor Eye and Winning Now likely forcing a true run
Punty read: This is where the speed horses go hammer and tongs and someone gets left holding the bag. Vigor Eye is the one I want on top because the map says he gets the right run and the hot tempo helps his cause. Tactical Command and Young Arrow are both the sort who can jump up and slap the drum if the race falls apart, while Amazing Victory is the "if the sun, moon and stars align" roughie. It's a race built for drama, not for comfort.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Vigor Eye (No.6) — $7.00 / $2.45 🏆 12TH
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 13.7% | Place: 23.7% | Value: 1.23x
Why Hot pace, workable map, and enough tactical speed to sit right where you want when the burn-up starts.
2. Tactical Command (No.8) — $23.00 / $5.00 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 19.7% | Value: 3.23x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Young Arrow (No.1) — $17.00 / $4.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 18.2% | Value: 2.18x
Why Last-start excuse says he can improve, but he'll need the right run from a tricky draw.
Roughie: Amazing Victory (No.3) — $34.00 / $6.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 4.25x
Why Needs a bit of luck and a brutal pace, but if the race detonates he can clatter home hard.
Race type: Class 3, 1200m
Map & tempo: moderate pace, but there are enough on-pacers to make this a tactical little bastard
Punty read: Aurio is the favourite, but Punty isn't being hypnotised by the short price - not when the model is telling you there's better value floating around. Amazing Kid, Son Pak Fu and Harmony N Blessed all look live if the race shape suits, and the roughie Sovereign Fund can sneak into the frame if the leaders go a touch too hard. This is exactly the sort of race where the bloke at the pub says "I had the winner" after naming eight horses.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Amazing Kid (No.6) — $12.00 / $3.50 🏆 6TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 13.6% | Place: 23.5% | Value: 2.07x
Why Good enough track/distance profile and the run last start wasn't as bad as it looked - he's the one with a proper shout if the pace is honest.
2. Son Pak Fu (No.1) — $8.50 / $2.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 22.1% | Value: 1.35x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Harmony N Blessed (No.5) — $17.00 / $4.20 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 20.3% | Value: 2.45x
Why Classy enough to be dangerous, but he needs the race to fall his way and the price is already doing some heavy lifting.
Roughie: Sovereign Fund (No.4) — $16.00 / $3.50 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 18.3% | Value: 2.04x
Why If the pace is hotter than expected and he gets a clean shot, he can nick a slice at a number.
Race type: Class 2, 1650m
Map & tempo: moderate pace with Moments In Time and Lo Rider both likely to take their spot; the race should reward the horse that saves the most petrol
Punty read: This is the last leg of the quaddie and it's a proper thinker. The market's been chewing on Lo Rider, but the model prefers Packing Angel, Helene Feeling and Speed Dragon, which tells you the price on the favourite is a bit rich for the task. Kaholo Angel is the roughie with a closing kick if they crawl through the middle stages and the leaders turn into tyres at the top of the straight. It's a race where the shape matters more than the chatter.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Packing Angel (No.9) — $8.50 / $2.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$72.00
Prob 12.7% | Place: 24.9% | Value: 1.35x
Why Has the right sort of profile for this map and can absolutely run on if they don't overcook it early.
2. Helene Feeling (No.2) — $6.50 / $2.30 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.01x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Speed Dragon (No.1) — $10.00 / $3.20 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 22.8% | Value: 1.43x
Why The market's drifted a mile and the better setup plus his track profile says he's not the write-off some punters think.
Roughie: Kaholo Angel (No.7) — $26.00 / $5.00 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 16.3% | Value: 2.30x
Why Needs the race to open up and a fair tempo, but if it does he's the sort to lob late and annoy the favourites.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,7,2,1,6,11 / 6,8,1,3,4,5 / 6,1,5,4,10,2 / 9,2,1,7,11,4 (1296 combos x $0.04 = $58.32) -- 4% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Fivefortwo (Race 3, No.1)✗ — $5.50
2 - Shooting To Top (Race 6, No.3)✗ — $10.00
3 - Vigor Eye (Race 7, No.6)✗ — $7.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Happy Valley's serving up a proper nine-race caper on a Good deck with showers skulking about like that mate who turns up after the beers are gone. This isn't a day for fairy dust and blind faith - it's a map day, a position day, a "don't get bailed up and cry into your tote ticket" day.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Happy Valley, mixed-distance card
Rail: C+3 Course
Official going: GOOD (expected to play fair early, then get a bit cheeky late if the showers bite)
Weather: Shower, 17°C, humidity 89%, wind 5km/h SSW (watch for moisture buildup, late chop, and a lane that could get sticky if the rain lands)
Early lane guess: inside-to-middling lane early, with position and a clean run worth their weight in gold
Tempo profile: plenty of genuine speed in the sprints, with the 1650m and 1800m races hinging on map, rhythm, and who gets the soft trip
Jockeys to follow:
Zac Purton, when he's aboard a live one, the market usually isn't having a laugh for no reason
Joao Moreira, brilliant at turning a decent map into a winning one, especially when the speed is honest
Hugh Bowman, patient, tidy, and deadly when the gaps finally appear
Stables to respect:
C Fownes (7 runners), has live chances scattered through the card and plenty of them map to land in the right spot
D A Hayes (7 runners), a stack of runners with legitimate claims, and a few that have been crunched for a reason
W K Mo (6 runners), sneaky, map-friendly, and capable of landing a blow when the market's busy looking elsewhere
Punty's take:
This meeting's got more traps than a Tom Cruise heist movie. The short-course races are going to reward horses that can hold a spot, quicken, and avoid getting stitched up behind a wall of backsides. If you're a backmarker praying for 500 metres of clear air, good luck - you'll need a priest, a chiropractor, and a miracle.
The markets have gone berserk in spots, but not every firming job is gospel. Some of the shorties are proper skinny and ripe for the lay folder; others are shortening for a reason because the map, the form, and the jockey setup all line up nicely. That's where the money sits today - not just in the favourites, but in the value runners who get the right run and aren't forced to do cartwheels from barrier 12.
The other big thing is that the quaddie is a bloody minefield. Races 6, 7, 8 and 9 all have enough moving parts to make a stable hand sweat. If you're going to have a serious crack, you want anchors that can actually control the race or sit in the right seat. If you're trying to be clever and skinny up too much, one roughie will kick your teeth in and you'll be looking at the screen like you've just been mugged by the bloke from Mad Max.
What it means for you:
Don't try to win every race like a desperate pelican chasing chips. There's a clean spine here through the day, then a heap of chaos around it. The smart move is to lean on the value in Race 3, Race 6, and Race 7, where the model sees runners that either map well, get the tempo to suit, or simply look mispriced by the ring.
Where I want to be aggressive is with the genuine value plays that still have a race story: the ones with excuses last time, a better map today, or a jockey/trainer combo that actually makes sense. Where I want to protect is the shorties that are unders - if the favourite is already steamed and the price is skinny, I'm not interested in being the bloke who pays overs for the privilege of being wrong.
The quaddie is a survival ticket, not a cuddle. If you want the big collect, you need to accept that four open legs means a lot can go pear-shaped. That's fine - that's the game. But the single bets should still be the backbone, and the multi should be treated like a spicy side dish, not the main meal.