Wednesday, 08 April 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: HANDICAP, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Extremely Tempted likely to do the donkey work and Rocket Girl sitting in the right lane to pounce.
Punty read: This is a proper early test of speed versus composure. Rocket Girl has been hammered in the market and you can see why - James McDonald aboard, a handy draw, and a run pattern that says she can sit just off the burn and get the last crack. Extremely Tempted should roll forward and ensure this isn't a sit-and-sprint love-in, while Priory Park has the ear muffs on first time and looks like one that can settle and keep coming. Fondness is the blowout saver if the leaders cut each other's throats.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Rocket Girl (No.10) — $2.92 / $1.25 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 34.8% | Place: 76.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why She's the one they've steamed for and the map says she's right in the firing line. If she lands one pair back with cover, the rest might be chasing her tail.
2. Priory Park (No.3) — $6.50 / $1.35 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 17.0% | Place: 54.5% | Value: 1.19x
Why First-time ear muffs and a workable draw make her the sort of runner that can sit in the right spot and be there when the whips are cracking.
3. Extremely Tempted (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.75
Prob 14.7% | Place: 48.9% | Value: 0.47x
Why He looks the leader and could make it a proper test, but he'll need to keep running to the line if Rocket Girl has the last shot.
Roughie: Fondness (No.6) — $23.50 / $3.40 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 47.5% | Value: 3.57x
Why If the speed turns into a bar fight up front, she's the one who can swoop late and make a meal of them.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Fairway To Heaven rolling forward, while Somerton Smart and La Basilique look to get the right sort of sit.
Punty read: The market has absolutely gone to work here - Somerton Smart has been smashed, and that kind of move usually means someone likes the look of the map as much as the form. La Basilique has drifted, which is a bit rude, but JMac on board keeps the temperature up. Admire Me is the juicy one at the prices: the last run had excuses, the drift is doing its usual panic-the-mug-punter thing, and if the race opens up, she's the one I want finishing through them.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Somerton Smart (No.2) — $4.30 / $1.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $14.50 Each Way ($7.25W + $7.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$14.50
Prob 22.3% | Place: 59.4% | Value: 1.15x
Why He has been heavily backed and the on-pace map is dead set friendly. If he lands forward without burning petrol, he's right in the right fight.
2. Admire Me (No.8) — $13.00 / $3.50 🏆 6TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 17.2% | Place: 49.6% | Value: 2.67x
Why The drift is the gift here if you're brave enough - last-start interference, a decent setup, and enough turn of foot to pinch a place if they overdo it up front.
3. La Basilique (No.3) — $6.75 / $2.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.60
Prob 14.5% | Place: 43.7% | Value: 1.17x
Why JMac, a handy map, and enough class to be in the finish if the pressure doesn't get silly early.
Roughie: Stubborn Emmelie (No.9) — $18.00 / $4.00 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 43.0% | Value: 3.07x
Why She's the sneaky one if this turns into a race where the on-pace brigade locks horns and leaves a hole for the late closer.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Lontrice and Almaaz getting the cosy trip and the rest hoping the leaders don't walk through the first half.
Punty read: This is a patience race. Lontrice has been smashed in from the inside and that makes sense - barrier 2 in a crawl is exactly the kind of setup you want when everyone else is waiting for somebody to blink first. Almaaz has the map and JMac, plus the soft-track profile to stay in the hunt. Jade Sunset is the one to keep safe for the place if the race gets scrambled late, while Demmo Dermy is the roughie with the right excuse and the right sort of barrier to lob into the picture.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Lontrice (No.2) — $1.77 / $1.13 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$6.80
Prob 23.3% | Place: 61.7% | Value: 0.52x
Why He's the one they've backed into short odds and with the tempo likely to crawl, the draw gives him every chance to control his own destiny.
2. Almaaz (No.3) — $5.15 / $1.45 🏆 8TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 22.9% | Place: 61.0% | Value: 1.47x
Why Slow pace, soft ground, JMac - it's a tidy little package and he should get every possible chance to be the one finishing best.
3. Jade Sunset (No.10) — $9.45 / $2.35 🏆 2ND
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.25
Prob 13.3% | Place: 41.5% | Value: 1.57x
Why Backed out a touch but that's fine - he's the one that'll be working home when a few of these are looking for the bus home.
Roughie: Demmo Dermy (No.1) — $19.00 / $3.70 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 39.3% | Value: 2.96x
Why If the race turns into a crawl and the favourites don't put a margin on the field early, the inside alley can turn him into a sneaky little nuisance.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Vinolass and Pretty Cheeky likely to be there when it matters and Fiorenza trying to lob from the better alley.
Punty read: This is the race where the map matters and the confidence level is about as stable as a bloke on his third schooner. Vinolass gets the right run, has the soft-track figures to handle the conditions, and has that clean tactical setup you want when the race isn't a tearaway. Crimson Bonnet is the sneaky mare fresh from a spell and could be the rails horse that sneaks into the frame if the tempo isn't savage. Pretty Cheeky has been a monster drifter, which normally gives me the heebie-jeebies, but the raw talent is there if the race turns ugly.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Vinolass (No.3) — $7.60 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $12.50 Each Way ($6.25W + $6.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$12.50
Prob 21.2% | Place: 57.5% | Value: 1.92x
Why Handy map, soft-track comfort, and a trainer/jockey setup that looks the business in a race where position is half the battle.
2. Crimson Bonnet (No.9) — $13.50 / $3.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$20.00
Prob 17.0% | Place: 49.4% | Value: 2.74x
Why Fresh horse with proven first-up chops and the sort of profile that can pop up if the leaders get a bit too cute.
3. Fiorenza (No.4) — $3.40 / $1.35 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 15.9% | Place: 46.9% | Value: 0.64x
Why Firming in the market and maps to get every chance; the problem is she's short enough to make you nervous, so the place is the sensible play.
Roughie: Pretty Cheeky (No.7) — $17.50 / $4.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 44.0% | Value: 3.05x
Why Big drifter, but if she finds her rhythm and the others cook each other, she's the one with the natural speed to make a mess of the finish.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Spione and Aligned likely to settle in the right spot while the rest sort themselves out.
Punty read: This is one of the better betting races on the card. Spione has been getting serious market love and that usually means the stable has a target in mind - the map isn't perfect, but it's good enough for him to get a crack. Luskaire is the sneaky one at the bigger number; the barrier isn't ideal, but the second-up profile and soft-track comfort say he's not here to fill the stalls. Aligned is the sort of short-price horse you can trust to run a race without necessarily loving the price, and Rotagilla is the roughie if you want to dream of a late swoop after a muddling tempo.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Spione (No.6) — $3.70 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.50 Each Way ($7.25W + $7.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$22.47
Prob 25.5% | Place: 64.5% | Value: 1.15x
Why The money's coming for him and the setup is tidy enough to let him park up and launch if the leaders overdo it.
2. Luskaire (No.2) — $14.00 / $3.70 🏆 10TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 17.0% | Place: 49.8% | Value: 2.91x
Why Wide gate, yes, but the horse knows how to win and the race shape gives him a proper stalking role if they roll along.
3. Aligned (No.7) — $3.55 / $1.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 16.1% | Place: 47.8% | Value: 0.70x
Why He's the rock-solid type in the race - won't give you a heart attack, though the price is short enough to make you blink.
Roughie: Rotagilla (No.1) — $9.50 / $2.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 29.9% | Value: 1.06x
Why If the pace gets messy and the inside is the place to be, he can bob up and ruin someone's day.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Bubbles Up and Superfabulistic controlling the front end and Night Agent sitting in the sweet spot behind them.
Punty read: This is the one where the short-price horse is there for a reason, but the value vibes live with the runners around him. Bubbles Up can dictate terms and that's a huge edge at Hawkesbury when the tempo isn't too spicy. Night Agent is the obvious danger - short enough to scare the pants off you, but still the one with the cleanest winning profile. Chokuto has the pattern to run a place and Superfabulistic is the smoky if the race opens up late. Bella Khadijah is the market mover that has to be respected, but the map is a little trickier for her than for the leaders.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Bubbles Up (No.12) — $7.35 / $1.75 🏆 4TH
Bet $9.00 Each Way ($4.50W + $4.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 25.1% | Place: 66.9% | Value: 2.11x
Why He's the bloke likely to control the race, and on this sort of card a leader with a clean map can make everyone else chase shadows.
2. Night Agent (No.11) — $1.87 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.40
Prob 25.0% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.53x
Why Too short for a hero bet, but the horse is right there on ability and map - if he handles the last part cleanly, he's hard to knock out.
3. Chokuto (No.9) — $9.25 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 16.5% | Place: 51.2% | Value: 1.74x
Why The market keeps nibbling and the race shape gives him a sneaky midfield path into the placings.
Roughie: Superfabulistic (No.13) — $15.80 / $2.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 40.8% | Value: 2.23x
Why If the leaders go a shade too hard, he's the one that can come charging late and make the exotics sweat.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 2,3,10,1,7 / 3,9,4,7 / 6,2,7,3,1 / 12,11,9,13 (400 combos x $0.09 = $35.00) -- 9% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Spione (Race 5, No.6)✓ Won — $3.70
2 - Bubbles Up (Race 6, No.12)✗ — $7.35
3 - Night Agent (Race 6, No.11)✓ Won — $1.87
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hawkesbury's serving up a Soft 5 with the rail out a touch and a card that looks tidy on paper but messy in the lungs - the sort of day where the front half of the map can pinch a race and the back half can make you look like a mug if you overcomplicate it. The market's already had a good sniff at a few of the right ones, but there's still enough value around to keep the sickos happy.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Hawkesbury, 1100m-1600m card
Rail: +5m 1100m-450m, True remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fairish, with on-pace runners getting first crack)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 27C, humidity 43%, wind 11km/h WNW (watch for a bit of chop from the breeze and any track warming up late)
Early lane guess: Handy spots are the sweet spot early; don't get buried back and expect miracles
Tempo profile: Sprints are genuinely run, the mile is crawly, and the middle races sit somewhere between chess match and pub brawl
Jockeys to follow:
James McDonald - when he's on the right one, the market usually isn't far behind.
Tyler Schiller - riding with intent and getting the sort of maps that turn into proper plays.
Tim Clark - if he lands on the lead or outside the lead, he's a serious problem at this joint.
Stables to respect:
C J Waller - multiple live runners across the card and plenty of them have the right sort of setup.
G Waterhouse & A Bott - the sprints are their playground when the pace is honest.
Annabel & Rob Archibald - dangerous with the freshen-ups and the tactical types.
Punty's take:
This meeting smells like a map day, not a brute-force day. On Soft 5 around Hawkesbury, I want horses that can hold a position, roll forward without burning petrol like they're in Fury Road, and then kick off the bend with something left in the tank. The big thing here is that the market has already found a few obvious ones - Rocket Girl, Somerton Smart, Spione, Bubbles Up, Night Agent - so the job isn't just finding winners, it's finding the right sort of winners at the right prices.
The sprints look the most straightforward on the card, but don't mistake that for easy money. Race 1 and Race 2 have pace and pressure, and if you're on the wrong horse from a bad spot, you're basically buying a ticket to the wrong Marvel sequel. The mile is a patience test, while the middle-distance races are where the chaos merchants can nick a dividend if the tempo gets ugly or the leaders overdo it. That's where the value lives, and that's where the punters get dragged into the mud if they're asleep at the wheel.
What it means for you:
This is a day to lean into places and tactical runners, not go full hog on every favourite like a bloke who just discovered crypto. The shorter-price anchor legs are there, but the better money is in the horses who map cleanly, hold a spot, and have some market confidence behind them. If you're having a crack at the exotics, keep them tied to the race shape - don't throw darts at a dartboard with a blindfold on.
The game plan is simple: use the on-speed types and the strong maps as your spine, then let the value runners fill in the edges. I wouldn't be trying to be a hero in the chaos races; I'd be protecting with the right names and letting the slower pace races do the heavy lifting. If you've got a roughie on your hands, make sure it has a proper path to winning - not just a prayer and a stubby holder.