Thursday, 14 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo with a messy little gridlock vibe - if they dawdle, the horse sitting midfield with a bit of class can get the last shot.
Punty read: This is the sort of race where the tape comes up and half the field wants to walk instead of jump. Slander is the fave and the model's not mucking around with him, but that drift says the market isn't exactly singing from the rooftops. Tumorrama gets the inside draw and a soft-track crack, while Don't Doubt Frank should get a lovely enough run if Tyler Schiller can land him in the right spot. Gridlock is the interesting one - the money has been savage on him, and if the plunge is real, he's the horse that can make the top of the market look a bit silly.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Slander (No.4) — $2.90 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 23.4% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.82x
Why The best horse in the race on paper, and even with the drift he's still the one they have to beat. If Ashley Morgan can navigate the middle gate and avoid doing the full "stuck in traffic like Seinfeld on the FDR" routine, he should be right in the finish.
2. Tumorrama (No.12) — $4.40 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 13.9% | Place: 38.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why Draws the fence, which matters plenty here if the track starts favouring those saving ground. She's the sort that can sneak a place if the leaders don't tear away early.
3. Don't Doubt Frank (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 33.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why Tyler Schiller gives him a proper nudge in the right direction, but he's still a touch on the skinny side for me in a race that could turn into a patience test.
Roughie: Royal Wootton (No.13) — $13.00 / $3.30 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 23.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why Blinkers first time is the kind of gear change that can wake one up, but the wide gate makes life a bastard if the tempo stays lifeless.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with Our Huntress and Fernweh rolling forward - should be a proper enough tempo for the right stalkers to get their chance.
Punty read: Our Huntress looks the obvious one, and the market has already had a red-hot sniff - fair enough, she's the horse with the map and the class vibe. Miss Supernova should get the soft run from the fence, Fernweh has the engine but the wide draw and extra weight are the little gremlins in the machine, and Dirty Summer is the sort of horse that can jump up and ambush the exotics if the leaders get a bit too cute. If you're looking for a race where the market isn't completely off its rocker, this is probably it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Our Huntress (No.1) — $1.50 / $1.01 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.50
Prob 35.2% | Place: 71.3% | Value: 0.86x
Why Best map in the race, best ride in the race, and the stable has clearly come to play. If she settles where she should, this is the sort of shorty that makes you look like a genius or a dribbling idiot - and today she feels more genius than idiot.
2. Miss Supernova (No.6) — $3.90 / $1.22 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.5% | Place: 64.2% | Value: 0.93x
Why A real chance — but at $1.22 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Fernweh (No.2) — $15.00 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 13.0% | Place: 43.2% | Value: 1.17x
Why Blinkers first time and the market's had a nibble, so there's smoke there. The wide gate and the extra 4kg are genuine knocks, but if Sam Clipperton gets him rolling without covering extra tarmac, he's the one who can lunge late.
Roughie: Dirty Summer (No.5) — $12.00 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 36.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why He keeps popping up around the finish and the market has shown a bit of love. If the speed lifts and he gets a tow into it, he can run a cheeky race.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Koning the noted pace helper - should be a race where the swoopers need a genuine last crack.
Punty read: This one's a proper little chess match. Up To Mischief is the top pick because he's fit, he's versatile, and he can sit just off the pressure without having to win the race too early. Rebel Rhapsody from the fence is the one that gets every possible crack if the track is playing fair, while Tessy Tee has had the gear shuffle and market support to suggest she's not just here for the buffet. Then you've got Koning, the old roughie with the massive price and a real path if the tempo is legit - he's the bloke at the pub who looks half-cut but somehow still wins the darts.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Up To Mischief (No.4) — $2.60 / $1.35 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 22.4% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.68x
Why Hard fit, right sort of map, and Zac Lloyd should be able to keep him in the fight the whole way. If the front-end doesn't turn into a demolition derby, he's the one with the clearest path.
2. Rebel Rhapsody (No.1) — $2.75 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 34.6% | Value: 0.61x
Why A real chance — but at $1.37 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Tessy Tee (No.6) — $3.80 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 28.6% | Value: 0.68x
Why The gear tweaks and the firmer market whisper say she's not here to make up the numbers, but the place setup isn't quite juicy enough to force the wallet.
Roughie: Koning (No.8) — $21.00 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 27.3% | Value: 3.55x
Why If the pressure is real and they stack them up early, he's the swooper who can come charging down the outside and make a mess of the script.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Smoke 'n' Darts likely to rip across and make the others earn every metre.
Punty read: This is the race where the day starts to get properly serious. Smoke 'n' Darts has to burn from the alley, but he's got the pace to do it and the stable clearly means business. Escargoes is the one with the right sort of inside draw for a clean sit, and Tommy Berry is never a bad man to have when the race gets nutty. Charm Destination and Winning Lover are both taking money in different ways, but the market hasn't exactly stamped them as the chosen few. If you like a race that feels like the opening scene of Mad Max, this is the one.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Smoke 'n' Darts (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.30 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 27.1% | Place: 61.9% | Value: 0.85x
Why Genuine pace, best early speed, and the right sort of horse to absorb a bit of pressure before kicking on. The wide gate is annoying, but if he crosses cleanly he looks the one to beat.
2. Escargoes (No.5) — $2.35 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.3% | Place: 56.9% | Value: 0.85x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Charm Destination (No.3) — $16.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 22.6% | Value: 1.14x
Why Hasn't shown much yet, but the market has had a nibble and the light weight gives a bit of hope if she can lob into the right lane.
Roughie: Winning Lover (No.12) — $12.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 1.19x
Why If the leaders cook each other and the race falls apart late, he's the sort that can sneak into the money off the back of a softer trip.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Purple Rose likely to roll forward and keep the pressure honest.
Punty read: This is a better betting race than it first looks because the map gives a few of them a fair go. Into Brooklyn has the right run from barrier 4 and the light weight is a lovely little gift; she's the one the model wants in front. Tides Turning is a proper Hawkesbury type - likes the setup, likes the track, and from gate 1 she can get the cosy run the old punting gods hand out when they're in a mood. Raskol is going backwards in the market, which is never ideal, but he's honest enough to keep running. Purple Rose looks the obvious danger if she gets across and controls it, but that gate means she has to do the hard yards.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Into Brooklyn (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.55 🏆 5TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 18.4% | Place: 47.8% | Value: 0.97x
Why Perfect little map horse for the day - handy draw, light weight, and she can sit in the first wave without getting dragged into a scrap. If she gets the break on the on-pacers, she'll be mighty hard to run down.
2. Tides Turning (No.5) — $21.00 / $4.00 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 42.9% | Value: 4.01x
Why A real chance — but at $4.00 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Raskol (No.1) — $3.80 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 42.7% | Value: 0.72x
Why Drifting like a punt gone wrong, but still honest enough to be there when they straighten. Needs a good ride and a sensible tempo to matter.
Roughie: Purple Rose (No.6) — $14.00 / $3.30 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 36.7% | Value: 2.20x
Why If she can cross without burning the legs off herself, she's the one who could turn the race into a front-running test. Big if, but not the dumbest roughie on the card.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with Desi Emperor and Surf Sonic giving the pace a shape; Myriad is the one the market keeps leaning on.
Punty read: Myriad is the market mover here, but he's been backed and still hasn't exactly got a free swing at it - that's the bit that has me a touch wary, even though the model keeps him on top. Sociable is the short-priced danger, but the price is skinny and the run style isn't exactly screaming "free lunch". Desi Emperor has the class and the soft-track muscle memory, while Last Druid and Starros are the ones that make the exotics smell like a value sandwich instead of a stale sandwich. This is one where the wallet wants to be clever, not brave.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Myriad (No.5) — $3.60 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 18.3% | Place: 47.1% | Value: 0.78x
Why Despite the drift, he's still the one with the best overall shape for the race. If Lee Magorrian can get him travelling without burning petrol early, he gets every chance to kick away.
2. Sociable (No.3) — $2.35 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.41x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Desi Emperor (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 37.9% | Value: 0.98x
Why The medical excuse last time gives him a decent bounce-back angle, and the fence draw is handy, but he's still a touch below the line for me as a betting proposition.
Roughie: Last Druid (No.7) — $10.00 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 35.9% | Value: 1.53x
Why If they overplay the speed or Myriad gets traffic, this bloke can be the one finishing over the top when the others are gasping.
Race type: Class 1, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo and a proper tactical slog - a race where the leaders can pinch it if they get easy sectionals, but the wrong ride can leave a horse flat-footed.
Punty read: This is the filthiest little puzzle on the card. Valentiago gets the top billing because the map and the weight are in his corner, and that's the sort of edge that matters when the race lacks tempo. Made In Italy and The Big Blue have been backed as if the stable scribbled on the tote with a permanent marker, but the value tags say they're a bit short for the risk. Don't Tell Polly is the sneaky big price play if the race turns into a muddling, no-pressure crawl, while Jade Sunset and The Iron Star are the other ones people will be saying "how did that get in the finish?" about.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Valentiago (No.7) — $5.50 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$67.20
Prob 15.6% | Place: 42.3% | Value: 1.04x
Why Light weight, acceptable draw, and the race shape gives him a proper shot to land in a stalking spot and finish the job. In a slow-run 1800m race, that tactical advantage is worth more than a shiny price.
2. Made In Italy (No.13) — $3.00 / $1.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 41.8% | Value: 0.56x
Why A real chance — but at $1.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. The Big Blue (No.4) — $2.60 / $1.25 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 41.7% | Value: 0.48x
Why Genuine player, but the market has him parked in the skinny zone and the race shape doesn't scream "free look".
Roughie: Don't Tell Polly (No.8) — $21.00 / $3.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 40.9% | Value: 3.79x
Why If they dawdle and then sprint, he's the kind of horse that can come off a slow tempo and make everyone look silly for half a furlong.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,5,3 / 2,5,1 / 5,3,1 / 7,13,4 (81 combos x $0.37 = $29.97) -- 37% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Our Huntress (Race 2, No.1)✗ — $1.50
2 - Up To Mischief (Race 3, No.4)✗ — $2.60
3 - Smoke 'n' Darts (Race 4, No.1)✗ — $3.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hawkesbury's serving up a Soft 7 with the rail out 3m and a bit of sting in the ground - not a bog, not a picnic, just that annoying in-between where the clever on-pacers and the horses that can change gears cleanly usually get the chocolates.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Hawkesbury, 1100-1800m card
Rail: +3m 1100 - 450m, True remainder
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play genuinely with a slight edge to tactical runners and clean sectionals)
Weather: Showers, 18C, humidity 82%, wind 20km/h SSW (watch for a bit of chop early and a track that could lean to the fence if the rain keeps teasing)
Early lane guess: Inside-to-middle lanes should be the sweet spot early, but don't be shocked if the better lane ends up being wherever the horse can get cover and keep rolling
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - Race 1 looks a crawl, Race 2 and 4 have proper speed, Race 5 is a genuine pace scrap, Race 7 looks like a tactical arm-wrestle with a bit of deadset chaos
Jockeys to follow:
James McDonald, when the money's flying and the map looks tidy, he turns good chances into no-excuse chances.
Zac Lloyd, aggressive enough to make his own luck, and he's on a couple that should be in the right part of the race.
Tyler Schiller, the sort of hoop who can ride a plain-looking run into a winning one if the speed map's playing ball.
Stables to respect:
Nathan Doyle (3 runners), plenty of live chances across the card, with horses that map to park handy and get first crack.
Sara Ryan (2 runners), a handy little team for this setup; her runners look to get every possible tick from the race shape.
T Wong (3 runners), has a few in the mix and the right kind of setup to nick a result if one of them lands the right run.
Punty's take: This meeting's got a proper Hawkesbury feel about it - a couple of crawl-and-sprint specials, a couple of genuine pressure races, and a final leg that looks like someone threw darts at the map and the field. The Soft 7 isn't a full mud-bath, but it's enough to punish the wide, the rushed, and the blokes who think they can sit three deep without payback. That's why the inside draw types and the horses that can box-seat or stalk are worth their weight in gold today.
The market's already done a bit of snitching for us. Gridlock in Race 1 is the glaring one - a proper old-school plunge from the outer suburbs into the ring. Our Huntress has been smashed in Race 2, Smoke 'n' Darts is getting serious respect in Race 4, and Valentiago in the last is the kind of light-weight, cleaner-run play that can make a quaddie look a lot smarter than it feels at 9am. But there's drift all over the joint as well - Slander, Zobellan, Raskol, Last Druid - so don't go chasing every shiny thing just because it breathed on the tote.
What it means for you: This is a day to be firm in the races where the map looks clean and a bit more nimble where the race shape is a dog's breakfast. Race 2, Race 4 and Race 5 are the better banking lanes; Race 1 is a watch-your-wallet affair with a slow tempo and a few question marks; Race 7 is the sort of open handicap where one bad beat can knock the whole bloody ticket sideways. Lean into the horses with tactical speed, use the soft-track runners that can hold a spot, and don't get seduced by longshots in the $20-$50 graveyard unless the map hands them a golden highway.