Thursday, 14 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, and the fence run will matter - but only if Newitt can keep No.4 Gathers No Stone out of trouble from barrier 1
Punty read: This is a classic little Werribee bastard of a maiden: not much speed, a few horses wanting the same bit of real estate, and the one in the soft gate is the bloke everyone's trying to chase down. No.4 Gathers No Stone is the clear on-paper pick, but No.6 Not Guilty and No.3 Colt Forty Five are the types that can keep the pressure on if the favourite gets pocketed. No.11 Spirit Of Gaia is the roughie with a bit of a sniff if the race turns into a crawl-and-sprint job.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)
1. Gathers No Stone (No.4) — $3.30 / $1.37 🏆 5TH
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 26.2% | Place: 42.0% | Value: 0.84x
Why From barrier 1 on a slow-run maiden, he gets every chance to land on the bunny and make them chase. Not pretty, not glamorous, but sometimes the fence and a bit of common sense are enough.
2. Not Guilty (No.6) — $4.80 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.50
Prob 14.4% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.88x
Why Honest enough type but he's not throwing the sort of shape that makes you want to go full goblin on him. Needs things to unfold just right.
3. Colt Forty Five (No.3) — $7.00 / $2.20 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 26.1% | Value: 0.97x
Why The run's been honest and there's enough market interest to say he's not useless, but he still has to prove he can finish the job when the whips are out.
Roughie: Spirit Of Gaia (No.11) — $9.00 / $2.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 22.9% | Value: 1.10x
Why If the pace crawls and the leaders are asleep at the wheel, this is the one that can lob late and make a mess of the straight.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.11 Privateer and No.3 Kung Fu Kid looking the map winners while No.8 Wyandra has to do it the hard way from a handy gate
Punty read: This is the sort of race where the favourite can be right and still feel like a trap. No.8 Wyandra is the one they've been backing, but she's short enough to make a sane punter sweat a bit. No.3 Kung Fu Kid has the better map and No.1 Astern Fight arrives with stable polish, but the model still keeps Wyandra on top. If she's good enough, she's good enough - but I wouldn't be falling over myself to collect her autograph at this price.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Wyandra (No.8) — $2.75 / $1.30 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 30.1% | Place: 45.3% | Value: 0.81x
Why The favourite's the one they all have to catch, even if the price is a bit stingy. She's been right there for ages and the run pattern says she's still the benchmark.
2. Siriusly Bright (No.12) — $4.00 / $1.45 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 27.2% | Value: 0.85x
Why A real chance — but at $1.45 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Astern Fight (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 26.3% | Value: 0.87x
Why The gear change and debuting local setup are interesting, but from that gate he'll need the right ride and a bit of luck to come into it.
Roughie: Kung Fu Kid (No.3) — $14.00 / $3.30 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 20.6% | Value: 1.22x
Why He's the one with the map that can make sense if the speed horses overdo it. Not a bad roughie, just not enough reason to empty the clip.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with No.7 Reign Capital and No.5 Medieval Warrior advantaged on the map while the backmarkers need the race to fall apart
Punty read: This is where the card starts to get serious. No.7 Reign Capital looks the map horse and the money has been poked at him hard, but the wide alley is a small pain in the backside. No.3 Interrogate is the one Punty is happy to anchor around - he's been knocking on the door, he's got the class edge in the field, and he can absorb a race that might turn into a low-flying tactical duel. No.8 Shalaakei is the next cab off the rank, while the roughie No.5 Medieval Warrior needs the leaders to go to sleep and then some.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Interrogate (No.3) — $4.50 / $1.37 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 26.2% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.80x
Why He's the better all-rounder in a race that can get messy if they dawdle. The market's been happy enough to keep him tight, and the race shape gives him a real shot to stalk and strike.
2. Reign Capital (No.7) — $2.60 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.4% | Place: 36.0% | Value: 0.68x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Shalaakei (No.8) — $5.50 / $1.55 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.8% | Place: 35.4% | Value: 0.82x
Why Honest enough and not hopeless, but the place profile is a touch skinny for a safe chew. Needs the race to unfold sweet.
Roughie: Medieval Warrior (No.5) — $23.00 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 13.2% | Value: 1.01x
Why If the race turns into a sit-and-sprint and the on-pacers start waving the white flag, he can lob into the exotics at a whack. But he's not a throw-the-kitchen-sink job.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.7 Reylegado likely to roll forward while No.13 Meleys has the class but may have to handle a slightly more patient ride
Punty read: The maidens get a bit more serious here and the class runner No.13 Meleys is the one the market has latched onto, as they should. No.1 Best Terms is the obvious danger and has the right shape to make trouble, while No.8 Sign Up is a live enough contender if the race turns into a long, grinding slog. Punty's sticking with Meleys because she has the best overall blend of ability and tactical ammo, even if the map isn't a velvet rope special.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Meleys (No.13) — $1.95 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$9.10
Prob 31.3% | Place: 44.9% | Value: 0.85x
Why She's the one with the winning profile, and in a maiden like this that can be half the battle. The rest of them need to find something new; she just needs to do her job.
2. Best Terms (No.1) — $2.60 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.6% | Place: 44.5% | Value: 0.83x
Why A real chance — but at $1.20 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Sign Up (No.8) — $6.00 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 24.3% | Value: 0.99x
Why Capable of stepping up, but he still has to prove he can live with the top liners in a proper sit-and-stare affair.
Roughie: Reylegado (No.7) — $21.00 / $3.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 16.4% | Value: 1.08x
Why The on-speed shape helps, and if the favs are half asleep he can pinch a cheeky place at a price. Not the first horse I'm diving on, but not hopeless either.
Race type: BM62, 2720m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with No.2 Prince Pinot and No.3 My Uncle Did It the likely map beneficiaries while the backmarkers need a properly run race to get involved
Punty read: This is the sort of staying handicap where a lot of these blokes will look like heroes for about 1200m and then start finding excuses in the final furlong. No.3 My Uncle Did It is the one Punty likes best because he maps beautifully in a slow-run staying race, and the old boy has enough honesty to hold a position and finish the job. No.4 Kodiak Bear is the roughie with the wrong sort of price drift hanging off him, but he has the raw ability if the race gets weird. No.2 Prince Pinot is the other live one, especially if they roll along more than expected.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. My Uncle Did It (No.3) — $3.60 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$2.10
Prob 11.6% | Place: 33.4% | Value: 0.51x
Why On pace, in the right class, and in a race where the map matters as much as the mile-and-a-half fairy tales. If he gets an uncontested run, he'll give you a proper sight.
2. Kodiak Bear (No.4) — $14.00 / $3.80 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 33.2% | Value: 1.96x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dealt (No.14) — $12.00 / $3.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 32.2% | Value: 1.62x
Why Big odds, light weight, and a sneaky profile for the longer trip - but he's still the sort you want to see on the line, not backing blind.
Roughie: Prince Pinot (No.2) — $17.00 / $4.40 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 27.1% | Value: 1.88x
Why If this turns into a properly run stamina test and the on-pace brigade gets away with murder, he can bob up and make life miserable for the favourite punters.
Race type: Handicap, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Ray Del Norte and Secret Hell likely to ping the lids and make it a genuine speed contest
Punty read: This is a race for the hard-nosed punters to leave alone and go make a cuppa. The model can see a couple of live chances, but the market and the shape don't make it a crystal-clear betting proposition. No.2 Ray Del Norte and No.6 Catch It Kiss It are the two that make most sense on the map, but the price and the structure have me saying "nice try, mate" rather than diving in. No.7 Dragon Scroll is the short one, but the value says he can be opposed.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Ray Del Norte (No.2) — $15.00 / $3.50 🏆 8TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 18.7% | Place: 33.0% | Value: 3.40x
Why He's got the fresh legs and the early speed to be a real nuisance, but the market's already treated him like he's got the crown jewels.
2. Catch It Kiss It (No.6) — $9.00 / $2.50 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 2.01x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dragon Scroll (No.7) — $3.20 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 0.57x
Why The money says respect, but the value says the pricks have gone too short. That's enough for me to sit on my hands.
Roughie: Octrain (No.4) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 1.26x
Why He's the kind of horse that can run on into the placings if the speed is genuine and the front-runners start wobbling. But this race still screams "watch first, punish later."
Race type: BM62, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with No.3 Marilyn's Edge expected to roll along while No.6 Biologics gets the sort of pattern that can make a short quote look fair enough
Punty read: This is a proper little dash where the map matters and the leaders are going to have to earn every inch. No.6 Biologics is the class horse and the locked win play, but there's enough pace around him to keep the race honest. No.11 Lantana and No.10 Final Moment are the sort of runners you'd usually want to dig into for exotics, and No.14 Zetalyn is the roughie if you believe the inside and a hot tempo can turn the screw. Still, the model wants Biologics and Punty's not arguing with the spreadsheet after a couple of beers.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Biologics (No.6) — $1.80 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$9.45
Prob 17.9% | Place: 32.6% | Value: 0.38x
Why Short but logical. He resumes in a race where the depth isn't exactly terrifying, and if he brings his best, they'll be chasing shadows.
2. Lantana (No.11) — $17.00 / $3.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 30.0% | Value: 3.21x
Why A real chance — but at $3.10 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Final Moment (No.10) — $17.00 / $3.10 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 29.9% | Value: 3.19x
Why Fresh horse with enough upside, but he'll need the right tempo and a little bit of chaos to bring his best late.
Roughie: Zetalyn (No.14) — $11.00 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 20.8% | Value: 1.32x
Why The barrier's a pain and the shape isn't perfect, but if the leaders cook each other he can charge into the frame late.
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with No.8 Wishful Thinker and No.17 Brullen the likely leaders and No.3 Gazerati getting a decent stalking trip
Punty read: This is the last one and it looks like a proper punter's wake-up call. No.2 I Will Shine is the obvious favourite, but Punty's not keen on following the crowd into a skinny price when the map points the other way. No.3 Gazerati gets the better shape, is firming, and can land in a lovely spot; that's why he's the model's pick. No.13 Toy Queen is the roughie with the kind of price that makes your wallet itch, while No.8 Wishful Thinker is the sneaky saver if the leaders get to control things.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Gazerati (No.3) — $3.80 / $1.50 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 11.6% | Place: 42.1% | Value: 0.52x
Why The market's had a chew on him and you can see why - he gets a decent map and should be able to stalk the speed instead of doing all the donkey work.
2. Toy Queen (No.13) — $13.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 1.74x
Why A real chance — but at $3.40 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Wishful Thinker (No.8) — $28.00 / $5.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 39.0% | Value: 3.52x
Why He's got the right race shape in front of him, but just not enough certainty to have me screaming get on.
Roughie: Switch Hit (No.7) — $16.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 34.7% | Value: 1.76x
Why If the pace is hot and the track plays fair, he can hit the line with a bit of smoke on him. Not hopeless, just not the priority.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,6,3 / 8,12,1 / 3,7,8 / 13,1,8 (81 combos x $0.44 = $36.00) -- 44% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,4,14 / 2,6,7 / 6,11,10 / 3,13,8 (81 combos x $0.44 = $36.00) -- 44% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3 / 13 / 3 / 2 / 6 / 3 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Interrogate (Race 3, No.3)✗ — $4.50
2 - Meleys (Race 4, No.13)✓ Won — $1.95
3 - Biologics (Race 7, No.6)✓ Won — $1.80
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Werribee's serving up a Good 4 with the rail in the true, and this card looks like a proper map-and-momentum job: the sprint races want your eyes on barrier, early speed and who can land in the first decent chair, while the 1600m and 2720m scraps look more like patience games than full-blown drag races.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Werribee, 1000-2720m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair-to-on-speed in the sprints, tactical in the middle and staying legs)
Weather: Sunny, 19°C, humidity 60%, wind 13km/h E (watch for a mild breeze and no real weather excuses)
Early lane guess: Fair overall, with the first few sprints likely to reward horses that can park handy and peel at the right time
Tempo profile: Plenty of genuine pressure in the short-course races, a few crawl-and-sprint affairs in the maidens, and the staying race could turn into a shuffler if they knock each other around
Jockeys to follow:
Jamie Mott, gets the plum rides in the key legs and knows when to push the button
John Allen, rock-solid around this track and pops up on plenty of the live ones
Brad Rawiller, when he lands one near the speed, he can make them pay
Stables to respect:
A & S Freedman (3 runners), they've got multiple live chances and the market keeps respecting them
Tom Dabernig (3 runners), a handy team in the sprint lanes with a couple of runners getting serious support
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (3 runners), a stable with depth on the card and a few who can improve off the map
Punty's take:
This meeting's got a bit of everything, which is punter code for "don't get too clever in the wrong race or you'll be crying into a cold beer by lunch." The early maidens are map races more than tempo carnivals, so the ones that can land in the first four or five and get a clean crack are the ones you want in your corner.
The market's already had a proper sniff around a few of them too. You've got some serious firmers in the book - Reign Capital, Ray Del Norte, Gazerati, Biologics - and a couple of drifters that are acting like they've just seen the shark in Jaws. That's the sort of split where you either ride the smart money or get flattened by it, and today I'm leaning into the runners that can actually map and do the job, not just the ones wearing a bit of glitter on the tote.
What it means for you:
Keep your wallet calm early and let the card tell you where to get involved. Races 3, 4 and 7 are the best spine candidates for the day - they've got the clearest confidence and the cleanest shapes - while Race 6 is a classic "hands in pockets" job unless you enjoy throwing notes into the shredder.
If you're playing the card straight, treat the maidens like a chessboard: barrier, tempo and jockey intent matter more than some fairy tale about a horse "looking a million bucks in the yard". The staying race is the opposite - there's enough pace/shape weirdness there to make a ruckus, so don't go overboard unless you've got a real angle. The smart play is to back the races where the map and the money line up, and duck the ones that look like a mug punter's revenge film.