Thursday, 20 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 2013m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, backmarkers can still sneak in if the leaders get sticky
Punty read: This is one of those maidens where the track is good enough to reward a horse that lands in the first half and keeps finding the rail path. Sin City Boy has the cleaner route inside barrier 2 and with the tongue tie first time, he should be switched on earlier. Pembeton is the one to watch for the "maybe they're finally ready" vibe, but I'm treating him like a place chance more than a dream.
Out wide, Mystacheeno and Rockin' Robin are there to break hearts if the pace collapses. If it doesn't, the closest stalkers get first crack at the finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Sin City Boy (No.2) — $4.15 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 22.0% | Place: 63.9% | Value: 1.39x
Why Barrier 2, pace map makes him sit handily, tongue tie first time gives him a sharper start.
2. He'snotallthere (No.6) — $4.80 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.88
Prob 15.9% | Place: 54.3% | Value: 0.71x
Why He's the kind of midpack runner who picks up again late, and drift in the market can mean he's not as dead as they think.
3. By God He Is (No.10) — $4.18 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 56.5% | Value: 0.86x
Why Put simply, he's got the profile, but the place odds are asking too much today.
Roughie: Consolidated (No.8) — $12.50 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 28.3% | Value: 1.19x
Why If the tempo stays slow and the inside bunch holds, he can run on through gaps, that's his path.
Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, winners likely from those who can land midfield and not get shuffled
Punty read: Rocktex and Cassandra are the two that feel like they can keep rolling forward rather than doing the full ballet of waiting and weaving. Rocktex gets the rail-ish advantage with barrier 7, but the big thing is that he's not a backmarker that's doomed, he can press into the right spot. Cassandra is the class of the "cheap and cheerful" danger, but she'll need luck from gate pressure and a clean run into the bend.
Cassandra at $2.77 is short enough that if she wins you'll think it was obvious, if she misses you'll blame yourself for believing in the story.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Rocktex (No.1) — $2.72 / $1.22 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 33.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.27x
Why He maps to be around the action early, and Rocktex is the pick when maiden races turn into position battles.
2. Cassandra (No.7) — $2.77 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Rocky Beach (No.4) — $7.10 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.55x
Why He's got some speed in him, but the place market isn't offering enough to cover the risk.
Roughie: Aura Magna (No.5) — $9.45 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 0.83x
Why If the pace holds together, Aura Magna can be there for the swing, but she's not my main lane.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, this is where a leader can steal the race if they control the rhythm
Punty read: About Turn is the standout story here, he's the on-pace type that wants to go early and keep going. With barrier 1, you get that "set and go" mentality, and even if others try to pressure, it looks like he can handle it. Zero To Sixty has the raw run-on ability and if the field strings out, he turns into the perfect stalker.
The dangers are the ones who get interfered with, wide or held up and then come back sharp. Fortgang is a roughie option when the tempo goes long, but this still looks like a two-horse job with a third for value.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.00 pool)
1. About Turn (No.3) — $2.48 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $17.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$25.16
Prob 42.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.32x
Why Barrier 1, on-pace map, and he's built for a moderate tempo where leaders can bank positions.
2. Zero To Sixty (No.4) — $3.85 / $1.62 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.48
Prob 16.3% | Place: 58.9% | Value: 1.22x
Why Cross-over nose band off first time, and he should get a clean run to make up ground on the turn.
3. She's Some Craic (No.8) — $10.00 / $2.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why She can plug on, but the place price isn't matching the risk.
Roughie: Fortgang (No.11) — $17.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.59x
Why If the race stretches late and the inside is crowded, he's the one that can surprise for third and maybe more.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, position matters, but when it quickens the wrong trip gets exposed
Punty read: Trickster is my kind of bet in this one. He's got the early speed to be in the right lane, and winkers off first time suggests the stable wants him to be more serious and less distracted. Atsui Haru is the other half of the split, he's the one that can keep pushing forward even if the race is slow, which is crucial at 1600m.
History Supreme and Sylva Jack are there to pick up pieces, but I'm not falling in love with them unless the top two get bogged or caught wide.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Trickster (No.9) — $2.48 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$19.30
Prob 42.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.28x
Why On-pace midfield, winkers off first time, and he looks ready to hit the ground running without getting shuffled.
2. Atsui Haru (No.11) — $2.12 / $1.13 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.13x
Why A real chance — but at $1.13 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. History Supreme (No.5) — $8.85 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 40.5% | Value: 1.36x
Why Value in the win sense, but place risk is too spiky today.
Roughie: Sylva Jack (No.1) — $17.50 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.8% | Place: 19.2% | Value: 0.59x
Why If the pace truly falls apart early, he can sneak into the minor money late, but I'm not overcommitting.
Race type: Handicap, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders can set it up, middle runners still have a shot if they time the run
Punty read: Publicise should get his chance in this kind of race, the pace looks genuinely on, so he can sit in the right spot and pounce when others start to fade. Late Arrival is the classic "comes with a run" horse, and with the market already sharpening around him earlier, I'm not ignoring his place chance at all.
Chantel is interesting and the draw gives him a decent shot to be heard early, but I still like the first two for the win lane and Chantel for if the race turns into a sprint finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Publicise (No.3) — $2.42 / $1.13 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$22.01
Prob 37.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why Backmarker only in name, he's got the class for this pace, and the race flow suits his style.
2. Late Arrival (No.1) — $4.65 / $1.55 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 18.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why On-pace, rhythm helps, and he's the type that grinds through late when others get tired.
3. Chantel (No.5) — $5.75 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 56.8% | Value: 1.26x
Why Looks a winner, but I'm steering clear of a place price that doesn't feel friendly.
Roughie: Where's My Lunch (No.9) — $14.75 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.6% | Place: 21.6% | Value: 0.86x
Why He needs everything to go right for him, if it does, he's a sneaky place getter, but he's not the main plan.
Race type: Handicap, 1500m (Bm46+)
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, open race feel, track position and timing are king
Punty read: Kelora and Miss Wall Street are the ones I can picture doing the right things through the run, especially because they're drawn to be involved and the tempo isn't set up to completely destroy midfielders. Cosmic Eclipse is there as the "if it's not his day, he can still place" type, but she's got to be handled perfectly from her spot.
Military Jane has the right vibe as a roughie, she gets into the fight, but the big one for me is the Miss Wall Street angle in place, she's got the profile to be in the money again.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Kelora (No.1) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — Cashed, net -$6.01
Prob 15.5% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.11x
Why Place pressure works in this race shape, and if she lands in the right half, she's hard to hold out.
2. Cosmic Eclipse (No.3) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 50.2% | Value: 1.09x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Miss Wall Street (No.2) — $7.05 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.37x
Why Value is there in win terms, place pricing is the only thing making me bite my tongue.
Roughie: Military Jane (No.6) — $9.50 / $3.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 24.6% | Value: 0.92x
Why If the race falls into a pattern, she can sweep late, but she's not the one I want to carry the whole bet.
Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, this turns into a sprinty survival contest and place leverage matters
Punty read: Radiant Light is the low-risk favourite for a reason, he's the on-pace type and the draw gives him every chance to control the first section. But the smart part is Come On Emma, because she has the kind of profile where she can sit close enough and still last in a straight-up finish.
Cable Rock is the one that can pop into the top end if the pace gets messy, and Cawarra is your "if they implode late, I'll be there for the value" roughie.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Radiant Light (No.5) — $2.06 / $1.15 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 35.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.90x
Why On the right side of the pace, gate suits, and when it's 1300m you want speed that can keep speed.
2. Come On Emma (No.4) — $6.85 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.25
Prob 15.3% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Place leverage day, she's drawn to tuck in and keep coming, and she's the perfect "don't overpay for win" play.
3. Cable Rock (No.11) — $8.55 / $2.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.33x
Why Too much price risk for me at place, but he can still run on for a minor spot.
Roughie: Cawarra (No.10) — $14.50 / $3.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.35x
Why He needs pace to collapse a touch, but if it does, he's got the late kick to sneak into the frame.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 9,11,5 / 3,1,4,5 / 3,1,2,6 / 5,3,4,11,10 (240 combos x $0.08 = $19.20) -- 8% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Sin City Boy (Race 1, No.2)✗ — $4.15
2 - About Turn (Race 3, No.3)✓ Won — $2.48
3 - Publicise (Race 5, No.3)✓ Won — $2.42
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Sickos, Pinjarra with a Good 4 and that rail at +8m entire, it's the sort of day where the front ends earn their keep, but the right midpack swoopers still get a cheeky look-in. Possible morning shower, but the rain has been a rumour, not a reality, so I'm treating it like a normal Good 4, straight up, no drama.
This card is set up for winners that map, not winners that wander. Races 4 to 7 is where the chaos lives, so I've built you a spine with my Big 3, then stitched the lanes through the hard bit like we're doing a school project the night before school. For the speed jobs, look at the leaders and the horses with pace factors that actually help, and for value, I'm keen on where the market is either over or undercooking it.
Most of all, don't overthink it. If a horse is positioned to do the work and the draw isn't a punishment, it's live. If it's stuck chasing without a plan, it's a "watch it fly past" moment.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Good 4, 2013m to 1500m card
Rail: +8m entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Speedy with a Midfield Bias)
Weather: Possible morning shower, 18°C, humidity 61%, wind 7km/h NNW (watch for the quick start drizzle, gusts 14.8km/h)
Early lane guess: Barrier lanes 1 to 4 for the early speed, mid drawn runners can still win if they land close
Tempo profile: Generally manageable tempo early, the real separation comes when leaders start putting lengths on, then the staying power shows late.
Jockeys to follow:
William Pike: hard to beat when the horse shows pace and he gets a clean run.
Alex Hearn: gets the job done on the right type, especially when the field bunches up early.
Brayden Gaerth: good at steering through traffic, tends to nick a long-odds place when others get trapped.
Stables to respect:
N D Parnham (5 runners): keeps backing them up and knows how to have them competitive with the right gear and forward intent.
D T McAuliffe (4 runners): the maiden prep mob that can lift off trial and race experience, especially on a fair track.
Jade Tangaroa (2 runners): usually sharp with maiden targets and can get you a surprise if the race shape suits.
Punty's take: Pinjarra's rail is sitting out at +8m, so the wide boys get a bit of a freer roll, but it's still not a free-for-all. If you're too far back early without cover, you'll pay for it, especially in the middle distances where the field doesn't stretch instantly. I like races where the pace is genuine, because that's when you get the "great, I've got options" feeling on the turn.
My favourite thing on the whole card is the way the leaders in Races 3 and 4 look like they can actually hold their positions. About Turn in Race 3 is my kind of runner, you get that forward style and it keeps giving the jockey a decision, not a panic button. Then Race 4 is a speed and class chess match, Trickster looks like he's ready to do the hard yards again.
For value, I'm watching the market gaps. Some horses are getting drifted like they're in a TV show where nobody answers the phone. That usually screams "they'll still hit the line", and it's why I'm not scared to take a roughie where the price is wobbling.
What it means for you: Be aggressive in Races 3, 4 and 5 where the top end of the field has clear jobs. Those races are the ones where you want to back with confidence, not just for "a run".
For Quaddie lanes, you've got to respect that Races 4 to 7 compiles mischief. Trickster and Atsui Haru in Race 4, Publicise and Late Arrival in Race 5, then the handicap roulette in Race 6 and the place leverage in Race 7. That's why the lane builds are wide where they need to be, and tight where the map does the heavy lifting.
If you're doing it simple, ride the Big 3 + Multi spine. If you want to make it spicy, add Quaddie coverage for 4 to 7, but keep your head. This is not a "print money" carnival, it's a "earn it" meeting.