Monday, 27 April 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with Artgirl and Cherry Jubilee likely to keep Agatha honest up front
Punty read: Agatha has had the cash dumped on her and it's not hard to see why - Tommy Berry from barrier 2 is a lovely setup and the tongue tie says they're serious. Artgirl is the main danger if she can get rolling off that better price, while Miss Supernova is the one who can hang around if the speed isn't savage. Cherry Jubilee is the big ol' roughie, but she'd need the race to turn into a comedy sketch and that's a long ask.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Agatha (No.1) — $1.60 / $1.22 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$4.68
Prob 46.1% | Place: 41.6% | Value: 1.11x
Why She's the one the market has already anointed, and with the small field and good draw she should get every chance to make the hype look smart.
2. Artgirl (No.2) — $4.50 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 34.0% | Place: 39.2% | Value: 1.14x
Why She's been knocking on the door and the stable's not afraid to throw one in when the map suits; if Agatha gets touched off, this is the one that can ambush the race.
3. Miss Supernova (No.4) — $3.20 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $3.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 15.1% | Place: 20.2% | Value: 0.89x
Why Handy enough to be dangerous and she won't need a miracle run if the leaders go to war too early.
Roughie: Cherry Jubilee (No.3) — $67.00 / $5.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 6.9% | Value: 2.22x
Why If the front few start dancing and the race gets messy, she's the one who could stagger into the placings at a silly price.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, but the top few are so tightly bunched that one bad decision can blow the whole thing up
Punty read: This one's a proper headache. Quarterback has the map with Nash and the market has had a sniff, Laconic Livo has been smashed from a country mile, and Moscatel is the short one everyone will look at with suspicious eyes. It's the kind of race where you either land on the right horse or spend the next leg muttering into your coffee like a bloke who missed the train.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Quarterback (No.4) — $9.00 / $2.40 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$30.00
Prob 15.6% | Place: 31.6% | Value: 1.87x
Why He maps a lot better than the crowd favourite and the stable/jockey combo gives him a cracking chance to sit in the right spot and pounce when the stitch-up starts.
2. Laconic Livo (No.3) — $18.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 14.4% | Value: 3.70x
Why Big price, big market move, and the Schiller factor means he's not here for the scenery; just needs the luck to slot in without doing too much work early.
3. Moscatel (No.12) — $2.50 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 0.48x
Why The gate says everything - the market likes him, but the run map is a bit too cute for me to get excited at the price.
Roughie: Sing Your Song (No.13) — $14.00 / $3.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 21.5% | Value: 1.79x
Why If the speed gets muddled and the favs jab at each other, this one can sneak into the finish with a soft run.
Race type: Handicap, 1550m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with Made In Italy and Donatello looking the ones most likely to get the right sort of run
Punty read: Made In Italy is the anchor - fit, in form, and looking like the one that gets every possible go from the draw and race shape. Bella Wahine has the gear tweak and a chance to wake up, while Donatello is the one the stewards probably owe a coffee after some interference last time. Love 'n' Glory is the roughie with a sniff if they crawl early and then stack up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Made In Italy (No.6) — $2.80 / $1.30 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 24.0% | Place: 43.5% | Value: 0.79x
Why Honest, fit, and the map says he's going to be in the right part of the race when it matters.
2. Bella Wahine (No.8) — $13.00 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 33.3% | Value: 2.83x
Why Blinkers on and a better setup than the naked form line suggests; if the race turns into a grind, she can get involved.
3. Donatello (No.3) — $6.00 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 33.0% | Value: 1.19x
Why Forget the last run's drama - the excuses were legitimate and this is a much cleaner assignment.
Roughie: Love 'n' Glory (No.4) — $10.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 22.9% | Value: 1.31x
Why Backmarker in a slow-run race can be a pain in the backside, but if they crawl and then sprint home, she's the one with the late sting.
Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but the handy types have the lane advantage and the horse that can sit near the front gets first shot
Punty read: Common Goal is the right sort of horse for this set-up - handy, honest, and likely to be there when the whips come out. Penpel and Probability Theory are the sort you use in the wider bets, because the race shape looks lively but not necessarily kind. Ningaloo Star is the roughie with the class to threaten, but the gate and the weight note are a bit of a buzzkill.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Common Goal (No.5) — $9.50 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 18.9% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 2.40x
Why He maps well, has a few strings to his bow, and the market has already started to respect him.
2. Penpel (No.7) — $5.00 / $1.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 36.3% | Value: 1.17x
Why He's got the right racing pattern, but in a race this messy you don't want to be overexposed unless the numbers are really singing.
3. Probability Theory (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 29.8% | Value: 0.63x
Why On paper he's the one with the name everyone can pronounce, but the map isn't doing him too many favours here.
Roughie: Ningaloo Star (No.1) — $20.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 27.2% | Value: 3.65x
Why She's got the class to bob up, but the big gate and the sort of race shape that can make you work for it leave a few question marks.
Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with a couple of pace players and a few that will be looking to lob handy
Punty read: Favour The Bold is the one Punty wants in the cart - the form is there, the price is fair, and the race shape gives him a real shot to put it to bed late. Lord Remlap has the record but the market says he's plenty short enough, and Speedy Henry is the type who can make you think he's going to run a cheeky race before drifting into the furniture. Caravanserai is the roughie for the brave degenerates, but he's more "if everything goes pear-shaped" than a straight play.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Favour The Bold (No.9) — $11.00 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 16.7% | Place: 33.2% | Value: 2.46x
Why The map is right, the weight relief helps, and the price still has a bit of air in it for a horse with a legitimate path to winning.
2. Lord Remlap (No.11) — $2.40 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.6% | Place: 37.2% | Value: 0.50x
Why Honest as the day is long, but the market's already nicked the edge off him and he doesn't scream value at the skinny quote.
3. Speedy Henry (No.7) — $6.00 / $1.85 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.24x
Why There are excuses there and he can pop up, but he's not the one I want carrying the day when the race turns into a pocket of traffic.
Roughie: Caravanserai (No.8) — $29.00 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 21.9% | Value: 4.04x
Why Massive price, but he'd need the race to melt down and hand him a luxury ride.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, and the map says Donwon is the one most likely to get the right sort of run while a few others get parked
Punty read: Donwon is the sneaky one here - the price is honest, the run style fits, and the stable/jockey combo has enough juice to make the market look a bit silly if he gets the split when he wants it. Virgil's Gift and Pasadena are both the sort of runners you respect without falling in love with, and Aegipan is the roughie with the monstrous price and the sort of profile that makes sickos sit up straight.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Donwon (No.2) — $17.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 14.5% | Place: 28.3% | Value: 3.58x
Why He maps well enough to get the perfect stalking run, and at the price you're getting enough for the risk.
2. Virgil's Gift (No.3) — $4.40 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 27.5% | Value: 0.85x
Why Good horse in the right race shape, but not quite juicy enough to have me emptying the pockets.
3. Pasadena (No.6) — $5.00 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 28.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why There's ability there, but the draw and the map make him a touch more annoying than appealing.
Roughie: Aegipan (No.11) — $34.00 / $6.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 4.24x
Why If the race turns into a messy mid-speed shuffle and the right lanes open late, this is the one who can come flying from the clouds.
Race type: Handicap, 1550m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with the leaders likely to get a say and the stalking types getting first crack
Punty read: Walking Painting is the sort of horse Punty loves in these races - gets the right map, has the fitness, and the price still gives you some breathing room. Sting In The Tail is interesting because the gear change says the stable wants a sharper performance, while No Drama is the one the market has cooled on after the drift. Inquiring Minds is the roughie with the right name for the race, but he needs the thing to fall apart a bit.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Walking Painting (No.6) — $6.50 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$46.50
Prob 15.4% | Place: 30.1% | Value: 1.39x
Why The map is sweet, the price is still playable, and if he gets the run he's supposed to get, he'll be right there.
2. Sting In The Tail (No.10) — $13.00 / $3.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 29.8% | Value: 2.40x
Why The gear tweak is a decent little eyebrow-raiser, and he's the type that can lob into the finish if the tempo gets a bit ugly.
3. No Drama (No.1) — $7.00 / $2.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 1.21x
Why The drift is the concern, but he still has the class to be in the frame if the race doesn't go to script.
Roughie: Inquiring Minds (No.2) — $9.50 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.23x
Why If they overdo it early and the leaders tie themselves in knots, this one can pick up the pieces.
Race type: Handicap, 1250m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with the inside draw and handy runners doing the heavy lifting
Punty read: Pimlico is the one the race wants to revolve around from barrier 1, and that's why Punty's happy to side with him despite the skinny price. Battle Hymn has a live chance from a good draw, Fingers Hunter is the one with enough toe to make it interesting, and John Dory is the roughie with the market move that says someone thinks he can run a race. If the leaders go too hard, the backmarkers get a sniff, but the inside lane still looks mighty attractive.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Pimlico (No.9) — $2.65 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$21.00
Prob 22.6% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 0.70x
Why The map is his friend, the draw is perfect, and if he gets control of the race early enough, the others may simply not get past him.
2. Battle Hymn (No.2) — $6.50 / $2.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 33.0% | Value: 1.38x
Why He's got the right gear of run if the favourite gets softened up, and the stable knows how to land one in these tactical sprints.
3. Fingers Hunter (No.6) — $4.50 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 32.6% | Value: 0.88x
Why Maps to get a decent crack at them, but the race isn't screaming for a big push outside the top pick.
Roughie: John Dory (No.7) — $11.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 25.4% | Value: 1.72x
Why If the pace gets too busy and the on-pacers start pinging off each other, he's the sort that can slip into the placings at a price.
Race type: Handicap, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, and the race shape says patience will matter more than bravado
Punty read: Freddie Bassett is the one I want in this race because the setup should let him find the right rhythm and finish over the top when the tempo starts to stretch. Shangri La Impact has had the money and the stable's clearly up to something, but the race shape means there's a bit of work to do. Hammoon Sensation has the right profile to be involved if the pace gets muddled, and Chokuto is the roughie with the market steam that suggests he's not just there for a lie down.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Freddie Bassett (No.8) — $8.00 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 19.2% | Place: 39.8% | Value: 2.03x
Why He gets the right kind of run for a race that should reward patience, and the odds still let you play without feeling like you've been mugged.
2. Shangri La Impact (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.17x
Why The market move is fair enough, but in a slowly run 1800m race he needs the right ride more than most.
3. Hammoon Sensation (No.11) — $11.00 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 35.5% | Value: 2.09x
Why The gear change says they're chasing a sharper display, and if the tempo is muddled he can rattle into the finish.
Roughie: Chokuto (No.10) — $10.00 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.61x
Why He can absolutely bob up if the race turns into a crawl and the sprint home is more about timing than brute force.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but the inside/mid lanes should matter and the market has already had a good go at the obvious ones
Punty read: Zing To Me is the horse that's been screamed out of the market, and for good reason - the map is fair, the form is strong, and Tim Clark can keep him out of trouble. Casserousse is the danger from the inside, Aye Aye Captain has the right sort of profile to sneak into it, and Welcome Gypsy is the roughie who'll have a few punters reaching for the smelling salts if he knuckles down late. This is one of those end-of-program races that can either save the day or ruin your mood on the walk to the car.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Zing To Me (No.2) — $8.00 / $2.30 🏆 8TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 21.7% | Place: 40.6% | Value: 2.30x
Why He has the market support, the right sort of map, and the sort of finish that can make the favourite's life miserable.
2. Casserousse (No.3) — $3.80 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.8% | Place: 38.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why Honest and well drawn, but at the short quote you don't want to be overcommitting unless the place picture is cleaner.
3. Aye Aye Captain (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 23.0% | Value: 1.23x
Why Handy horse with a live chance if the speed map goes his way, but he needs the lane to open at the right time.
Roughie: Welcome Gypsy (No.12) — $51.00 / $6.50 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 14.0% | Value: 4.17x
Why Massive price and a bad draw, but if the race tears apart and he gets a late crack, he's the one that can blow the lights out.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 6,8,3,4 / 5,7,3,1 / 9,11,7,3 / 2,3,6,8,11 (320 combos x $0.10 = $32.00) -- 10% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 6,10,1,2,4 / 9,2,6,7 / 8,5,11,7 / 2,3,4,7 (320 combos x $0.10 = $32.00) -- 10% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 9 / 2 / 6 / 9 / 8 / 2 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Agatha (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $1.60
2 - Made In Italy (Race 3, No.6)✗ — $2.80
3 - Zing To Me (Race 10, No.2)✗ — $8.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Randwick-Kensington on a Good 4 with the rail nudged out +2m is a proper little map-and-manoeuvre card - not a day to be gallivanting around wide like a drunk extra in The Hangover, because the inside-to-middle lanes should be doing most of the heavy lifting and the crosswind can turn wide draws into a bit of a slog.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Randwick-Kensington, 1100m card
Rail: +2m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair-to-on pace, with the fence-to-middle lanes handy)
Weather: Sunny, 19C, humidity 63%, wind 14km/h W (watch for wide runners getting tested late)
Early lane guess: inside and slightly off the fence looks the sweet spot; don't get stranded out in the breeze
Tempo profile: A mix of crawls and bunfights - a few leaders can pinch it, but the open handicaps will still punish bad maps
Jockeys to follow:
Tommy Berry - keeps finding the right horse in the right spot and can save a nightmare run with one slick ride
Zac Lloyd - gets plenty of the tactical rides here and knows how to land them in the gun lane
Kerrin McEvoy - the bloke you want when the race turns messy and you need a clean crack late
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (13 runners) - has half the card and a pile of the market moves; when Waller's got them cherry-ripe, the market usually sniffs it out
Matthew Smith (3 runners) - a couple of live ones that are fit enough to make the locals sweat
Annabel & Rob Archibald (3 runners) - not just there for a day out; a few of theirs map well and can punch above their prices
Punty's take: This is the sort of Kensington meeting where the form guide looks neat until the bell rings and somebody jumps the wrong way. Race 1 is all about whether Agatha can convert the steam train money into the real thing, while Race 2 is a maiden scrum with more moving parts than a NASA launch. From there, you've got a stack of races where the map matters more than the headline price - the rail is close enough to matter, the wind can punish the wide ones, and a few of these open handicaps are going to feel like trying to pick a winner in a pub raffle.
The other big pattern today is that the money's already spoken in a few key races. Some runners have been smashed in as if the bookies left the front door open, and when that happens at Kensington you don't want to be the hero fighting the tape. The cleaner approach is to lean on the horses with the map, respect the stable moves, and use the roughies only when they've got a proper path to the front end or a genuine swooper's setup.
What it means for you: This is a day to be selective, not reckless. The safe money is in the horses that can sit handily and get first crack at the lane, because if you're buried out the back and hoping for miracles, you're basically asking for a Mug Punter's souvenir. The place money is a better friend than the win money in a few of these knife-fight races, and that's where Punty wants you playing - take the horses with the right run map, save the wild swings for the pre-built exotics, and don't go chasing every $34 poke like you're auditioning for a sequel nobody asked for.
There's also a pretty clear split between the banker-ish races and the chaos legs. Race 1 looks the cleanest on the card, Race 3 has a few honest types with a real path, and Race 10 looks like a proper late sprint puzzle with a couple of live names and a market that's already had a good sniff. The maidens are where the market support matters most; the handicaps are where the map can make a fool out of the favourite. So if you're getting aggressive anywhere, do it with the clearest lane and the sharpest price; otherwise, protect your loot and let the races come to you.