Tuesday, 16 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Noivern rolling forward; a few will get their chance if they can get cover and not get bailed up.
Punty read: Ifyoustartmeup is the old honest bugger who keeps knocking on the door, and this setup gives him another crack at the lock. Ogun from barrier 2 is the attractive one because the soft going and inside gate can save a stack of petrol, while Tinuviel has had the market sniffing around and looks the sort to sit in the right spot. Noivern could pinch it from the front if the others are asleep, but the wide draw and the way the race shapes means he's more likely to make it a test than boss it like a champ.
Top 3 + Roughie ($23.50 pool)
1. Ifyoustartmeup (No.1) — $5.35 / $1.90 🏆 2ND
Bet $19.50 Each Way ($9.75W + $9.75P) — Cashed, net -$0.98
Prob 16.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.80x
Why He's been thereabouts, and on a soft track with a genuine speed shape he gets his chance to run over the top late. The wide gate isn't ideal, but if Corey can get him into the right rhythm he's the one I'd trust to finish the job.
2. Ogun (No.3) — $4.60 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.7% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.20x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Tinuviel (No.11) — $4.80 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 16.2% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.88x
Why The market has poked at her, and second-up off a spell she's the sort that can improve sharply if she lands midfield with a tow into it. Not a lock, but she's the sort that gets you paid without needing to win the argument.
Roughie: Noivern (No.2) — $10.75 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why If he gets an easy lead he can keep them honest, but the map and the weight say he's more likely to make the race than steal it.
Race type: Restricted 60, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with a few midfielders and backmarkers needing the right cart into the race.
Punty read: Leedox has been hammered in from $6.20 to $4.20 and that's not the sort of move you ignore unless you're a full-time clown. Barrier 3 is kind, the soft track is right in his wheelhouse, and the trainer-jockey combo looks live. I'm Feeling Lucky from barrier 1 is the sort of bloke who can slide through and stick on if the rail isn't a trap, while Explosive Lass is the honest on-pacer who'll give a sight without having to do anything heroic. Avitus is the roughie with the place profile, but the drift says the market isn't exactly buying a castle on the beach.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Leedox (No.2) — $4.30 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$20.43
Prob 16.9% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.83x
Why He maps beautifully from barrier 3 and has been backed like a horse with a story. Soft track form, a good gate and a stable that's got him right where they want him - that's the sort of trifecta I like.
2. Explosive Lass (No.4) — $6.65 / $2.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.13x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. I'm Feeling Lucky (No.5) — $8.15 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 14.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.39x
Why Barrier 1 and a midfield map on a soft deck is exactly the sort of setup that can produce a sneaky result if the track keeps playing fair. He's got the right excuse profile and enough upside to make the place money worth a crack.
Roughie: Avitus (No.3) — $12.75 / $3.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.02x
Why He can land in the right spot and run on late if the pace is honest, but the drift and the weight note are a couple of red flags waving in the breeze.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Ikidunot and Flavours likely to roll along in front.
Punty read: Unshackled is the one the market has gone looking for, and barrier 2 in a maiden like this is worth its weight in pub chips. He can park up, let the pace sort itself out and strike when the race gets serious. The Peony Xpress is the reliable type who keeps showing up to work, and Enchanted Dream is the one with the overlay if the race turns into a proper tactical grind. Rufus from the inside gate is the sneaky roughie - if he gets a soft run and doesn't get shoved into the next postcode, he can bob up and make a mess of the tote.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Unshackled (No.11) — $4.10 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $14.50 Each Way ($7.25W + $7.25P) — Cashed, net -$1.45
Prob 23.4% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.04x
Why Barrier 2 and a handy map are the big ticks, and the money has already started to talk. If he gets the right run, he's got the profile to sit close and let the race fall into his lap.
2. The Peony Xpress (No.9) — $7.90 / $2.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.22x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Enchanted Dream (No.12) — $9.15 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 9.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.64x
Why The market has her in the conversation and if the tempo isn't frantic she can swoop into it late. Not a beauty contest, but a horse that can cash a cheque if the race opens up.
Roughie: Rufus (No.5) — $12.25 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.35x
Why Barrier 1 gives him the softest possible life if he steps cleanly, and in a moderate-pace maiden that's enough to make him interesting for the exotics if the others fumble.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so position and timing are everything.
Punty read: This is the sort of race that makes everyone sound like a genius or a goose in the same breath. If they walk early, the backmarkers get bailed up and the on-pace types get every chance to pinch a cheap section of the race. Full Of Gusto from barrier 11 has to get across without spending the rent money, while Surprise Inside is waiting to see if the tempo turns into a funeral procession. Just A Brown Horse has been around the same mark for a while and can bob up in a race like this, but the price says the market is keeping the wallet closed. Sarracina is the roughie if the thing turns into a proper scramble.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Full Of Gusto (No.1) — $5.45 / $2.15 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 13.9% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.17x
Why He's the map horse in a race that can easily turn into a sit-and-sprint mugging. If he crosses and settles, he can make the rest look ordinary.
2. Surprise Inside (No.12) — $5.45 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.64x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Just A Brown Horse (No.3) — $5.45 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.29x
Why He's the classic "keep an eye on me but don't pay overs" type - enough ability to land in the finish, but not enough for me to spray cash like a man who just sold crypto.
Roughie: Sarracina (No.14) — $9.90 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.78x
Why If the race gets messy and they don't go a gallop, she can be one of the late runners that suddenly looks dangerous.
Race type: Restricted 62, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with a bunch of horses wanting a say and not much obvious control.
Punty read: Proclamation has had the market sniffing him, but the wide gate means the jockey has to earn every metre. Trader Inn and Koputaroa sit in the right part of the map and can get a sweet enough run if they don't get shuffled back into the carpet. Hayworth is the roughie to keep in the drawer because the place numbers say he's one of the better sneaky shapes in the race, and if they dawdle he can creep into it. It's one of those races where the mid-race move matters more than the early hype - like a Marvel movie, a bit of build-up and then someone has to actually throw a punch.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Proclamation (No.2) — $3.29 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — Cashed, net +$0.00
Prob 13.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.87x
Why He's got the class edge and the right stable vibe, but the draw means he'll need a clean ride to justify the short quote. If the pace isn't savage, he can sit on the right back and let the race come to him.
2. Trader Inn (No.7) — $4.56 / $2.40 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Koputaroa (No.1) — $3.80 / $2.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.82x
Why The inside alley can be handy if the jockey gets the right run, but the profile says he's more likely to be a spoiler than a saviour. Needs the race shape to fall his way and then some.
Roughie: Hayworth (No.5) — $9.05 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.58x
Why The soft-track and distance setup give him a sneaky lane if the pace cools off early. He's the sort that can look ordinary for half the race and still stick a nose in it late.
Race type: Restricted 62, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Cutout likely to inject proper pressure.
Punty read: This one has a real chance of tearing itself apart if a couple of them get cocky early. Verdian gets the dream gate but the price says the market is already onto him like a seagull on hot chips. Don Pauly looks the best balanced of the lot - enough class, enough map, enough chance - while Pretty Fly is the value horse because the shape of the race looks better than the quote. Yoo Hoo Joy is the place play that can save your bacon if the tempo gets hot, and Orsome Dude is the roughie if he can land in the right spot and not get bailed up behind a wall of tired legs.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Don Pauly (No.4) — $4.03 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$16.45
Prob 16.8% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.93x
Why He's the cleanest all-rounder in a race that could get messy in a hurry. If the leaders cut at each other, he's the one I want circling late with some juice left.
2. Verdian (No.2) — $2.76 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.57x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Yoo Hoo Joy (No.9) — $7.70 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 12.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.28x
Why The race shape suits a horse that can sit handy and keep finding, and the place price looks the healthiest of the bunch. If the speed cooks off, he's the one that can keep the ledger in the black.
Roughie: Orsome Dude (No.7) — $16.50 / $4.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.83x
Why He's the sort that can pop up if the genuine pace melts the front half of the field, but the drift says the room isn't exactly lined up behind him.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11,9,12,5 / 1,12,3,14 / 2,7,1,5 / 4,2,9 (192 combos x $0.23 = $45.00) -- 23% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Ifyoustartmeup (Race 1, No.1)✗ — $5.35
2 - Leedox (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $4.30
3 - Unshackled (Race 3, No.11)✗ — $4.10
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Sickos, Riccarton Park is serving up a Soft 7 with the rail out and rain hanging around like a dodgy uncle at Christmas - fine for now, but by the back half this could turn into a proper attritional scrap where map, cover and timing matter more than raw talent.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Riccarton Park, 1200m to 1600m card
Rail: Out 6m to the 1000m then 8m to winning post
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play fair early, then a touch more tactical as the day goes on)
Weather: Fine (watch for a late chop-up if that 67%+ rain chance lands)
Early lane guess: Middle lanes 3-7 look the sweet spot once the track gets a few boots in it
Tempo profile: R1 and R6 have genuine zip, R4 can turn into a crawl-and-sprint, and the middle races are where jockeys need brains, not just a whip and a prayer
Jockeys to follow:
Akshay Balloo, on Leedox, Avitus, Costanza and Verdian; plenty of live rides and a few that map nicely.
Bridget Grylls, Dujour, Rufus and Shooting Stride give her a nice spread of chances if the tempo gets messy.
Terry Moseley, The Peony Xpress, Adios Vamonos and Yoo Hoo Joy are the sort of rides that can nick a result if he times it right.
Stables to respect:
M & M Pitman (3 runners), Ogun, Leedox and Mystic Ocean are all right in the market conversation.
Andrew Carston (4 runners), Knockingatthedoor, Good Craic, Friendofthedevil and Freedom Reins give him a proper day out.
Steven Woodsford (5 runners), Ifyoustartmeup, Altiora Peto, Avitus, Explosive Lass and Costanza put him right in the thick of it.
Punty's take:
This is one of those Riccarton cards where the first look at the form guide tells you one story, then the market and the map tell you another. Ogun and Leedox have been the ones copping the coin early, Unshackled has firmed up, and that usually isn't just random punters having a flutter after a pie and a schooner. The rail's out, the track's Soft 7, and if that rain sneaks in later you're going to want runners that can travel through the muck without getting bogged like a Hilux on a beach holiday.
The opener and the back half are the key tells. Race 1 has a bit of tempo through Noivern, while Race 6 looks like it could genuinely burn itself out if Cutout kicks up and the others keep poking. In between, Race 4 is the classic crawl-and-sprint banana peel - the sort of race that makes smart punters look like geniuses and mug punters start blaming their mate's "hot tip". That means the middle lanes are where the value lives, because if you can find the horses with a map and a bit of wet-track grunt, you're already ahead of half the room.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive where the market support lines up with the map, and be a tightarse where the race shape is a crapshoot. That's Race 2, Race 3 and Race 6 territory for me - horses that can either get the dream run or at least keep touching the ball. Race 4 is the one to protect, because a slow tempo on a soft deck can turn the whole thing into a lottery ticket with legs. If you're taking a swing, do it with the horses that have a legitimate path to control, stalk or swoop - not the ones relying on three things going their way and a prayer to the racing gods.
The quaddie is the real play today, not the Big 6 circus act. We'll lean on the races where the model and the market are speaking the same language, then keep the open maids covered without turning the ticket into a mug-punter memorial. Place bets and each-ways are the go when the price is fair and the map is honest; if a horse is drifting like a boat anchor, I want a bloody good reason before I give it my hard-earned.