Saturday, 14 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Midway (Bm72), 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with a stack of on-pacers kicking up and the backmarkers needing the race to open up late.
Punty read: Absolute filth to start the day, in the best possible way. No.14 Jambalaya has been backed like a horse with a map, but barrier 1 can turn into a gift or a jail cell depending on how the splits land. No.12 Flightcrew will lob handy and has market support too, while No.3 Mailata looks the sort who gets a kinder run than last time and is right in the mix. If you're swinging big on the win here, you're braver than me after three froths and a payday loan ad.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Flightcrew (No.12) — $5.50 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.90x
Why Maps up on speed and gets a nice race, but in a spread-out Midway like this the price is a touch mean for mine.
2. Mailata (No.3) — $7.20 / $3.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 38.9% | Place: 38.6% | Value: 1.61x
Why Blinkers come off, the recent runs had excuses, and he looks the one most likely to get the right run without burning petrol.
3. Audrey's Lane (No.13) — $7.75 / $3.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.4% | Place: 33.4% | Value: 1.23x
Why On-pacer with enough talent to bounce, but that ugly market drift says she's not exactly the belle of the ball late.
Roughie: Everyone's A Star (No.6) — $9.45 / $4.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 37.8% | Value: 1.44x
Why If they overdo it up front, she's the one rattling home while everyone else is paddling like they're in Baywatch.
Race type: Cactus Imaging (Bm78), 1900m
Map & tempo: Slow pace and a tactical affair; getting into the right spot early matters more than some blokes want to admit.
Punty read: This is the kind of 1900m race where everyone talks stamina and then the horse with the cheap run and the sharpest 300m just pinches it. No.3 Unleeshing is the obvious one, but he's not exactly hiding from the market. No.6 Iceman keeps turning up and looks rock-solid to be there again. No.2 Super Helpful is the bomb who'll look hopeless at the 600m and somehow be in your frame at the 100m if they stack them up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Unleeshing (No.3) — $3.00 / $3.70 🏆 2ND
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 27.2% | Place: 68.3% | Value: 0.98x
Why He's the class horse in the race, and if Jason Collett can keep him close enough in a sit-sprint, he should be taking over late.
2. Iceman (No.6) — $4.65 / $1.10 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.20
Prob 57.6% | Place: 57.2% | Value: 0.83x
Why Honest as a tradesman invoice. He's not flashy, but he keeps finding the line and looks awfully hard to push out of the money.
3. Super Helpful (No.2) — $45.50 / $13.10 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 36.6% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 6.28x
Why Mad roughie, but in a slow race if they dawdle and he gets the right cart into it, he can lob into the placings at cricket-score odds.
Roughie: Nkosi (No.1) — $13.00 / $1.80 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 1.60x
Why Barrier 1 and tactical speed mean he's got the race by the throat if Tommy Berry controls it like a bastard.
Race type: Tresemm Magic Night Stakes, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.1 By Choice and No.3 Pembrey rolling into sweet stalking spots.
Punty read: Two-year-old fillies race, so naturally there's a decent chance something bizarre happens and we all start questioning our life choices. Still, No.3 Pembrey has the look of a filly with proper gears, and the heavy support is hard to ignore when the form already stacks up. No.11 Ciaron's Star is the value horse to fill the placings, while No.1 By Choice gets every possible chance to hang around like a bad sequel that somehow still makes money.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Pembrey (No.3) — $2.17 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$15.60
Prob 31.8% | Place: 75.2% | Value: 0.81x
Why She was held up and never really got tested last time, and from this draw she should get the stalking run J-Mac dreams about.
2. Ciaron's Star (No.11) — $7.25 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $7.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 54.6% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.51x
Why Gear tweaks, good upside, and she looks the sort who can absorb pressure and still hit the line like she means it.
3. By Choice (No.1) — $4.45 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 49.5% | Place: 50.4% | Value: 0.98x
Why Fast enough to hold a spot and tough enough to box on, but she's more "danger" than "overs" at the quote.
Roughie: Lumbini (No.2) — $12.95 / $3.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 42.0% | Value: 1.91x
Why Draws low, gets her chance, and if the fav gets cluttered up she's the one who can make this look very silly.
Race type: TAB Pago Pago Stakes, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.2 Warwoven handy, No.1 Star Of Jamaica pressing across, and No.6 Forest King stalking.
Punty read: Lovely little 2yo race where the market says No.5 Central Europe and No.2 Warwoven are the cool kids, but there's a bit of spice underneath. Warwoven has tactical speed and already looks furnished enough to handle himself. Central Europe only had the one start and clearly has talent, but the price is skinny enough to make you squint. No.6 Forest King is the knockout if he gets the suck run and the favourites fluff their lines.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Warwoven (No.2) — $2.77 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $17.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$30.60
Prob 27.3% | Place: 68.9% | Value: 0.86x
Why Slow start last time and still wasn't far away. Better beginning, better spot, and this race sets up beautifully for her.
2. Central Europe (No.5) — $2.12 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$0.80
Prob 62.3% | Place: 57.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Huge upside and the McDonald booking tells you he's expected to be in the finish, even if the win price is a bit plain.
3. Forest King (No.6) — $23.15 / $4.60 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 44.1% | Place: 41.3% | Value: 2.12x
Why Won on debut, maps to get the charmed run, and at the quote he's the sort that can make the bookies spill their iced coffee.
Roughie: Star Of Jamaica (No.1) — $8.25 / $1.80 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 43.9% | Value: 1.31x
Why Tough, forward, and keeps improving, but I'm not diving into that price when others have more edge.
Race type: Asahi Super Dry Sky High Stakes, 2000m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo with No.3 Just Fine expected to roll and string them out.
Punty read: Now we're cooking. This is the classic speed-versus-class staying race. No.3 Just Fine should make it a genuine staying test, which brings horses like No.1 Vauban right into the scene. No.5 Wootton Verni has been absolutely hammered in betting, but he's no picnic at the price in a race with multiple proper hopes. No.4 Soul Of Spain is in the fight too, though the market's found him a bit now. If Vauban gets the right tow into it, he can make this look like a mugging.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Wootton Verni (No.5) — $2.66 / $1.70 🏆 5TH
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 27.5% | Place: 52.9% | Value: 0.84x
Why Loves the trip, gets J-Mac, and if he settles where he wants he'll loom like the winner at the furlong.
2. Vauban (No.1) — $4.25 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.80
Prob 50.6% | Place: 50.0% | Value: 1.21x
Why Track and trip suit, hot jockey, and the setup looks much more his speed than some of those sharp mile races he's been in.
3. Soul Of Spain (No.4) — $3.40 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 42.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.22x
Why Quality horse and down in the weights, but two places only in a seven-horse field makes the equation less sexy.
Roughie: Just Fine (No.3) — $8.90 / $3.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 24.9% | Value: 1.18x
Why If he pinches sectionals in front, he'll have them all off the bridle and make this a proper lung-buster.
Race type: Toyota Forklifts Maurice McCarten Stakes, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.8 Mal Coupe and No.9 Tonkin zipping forward, and the on-pacers getting every chance to eyeball each other early.
Punty read: This is a cracker. No.4 King's Secret is the proper horse in the race, but he doesn't get to do it on his own terms. No.2 Kerguelen is the fresh horse with the right figures and a stable-jockey combo that means business. No.8 Mal Coupe can make his own luck and is no mug, while half the field has some sort of winning case if you squint hard enough and ignore your mortgage.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. King's Secret (No.4) — $4.25 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 22.5% | Place: 58.8% | Value: 1.14x
Why Loves 1100m, knows how to win, and gets the kind of race where he can camp close and launch.
2. Kerguelen (No.2) — $5.65 / $1.80 🏆 7TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 51.4% | Place: 50.7% | Value: 1.15x
Why Fresh winner, strong profile, and the Pride-Hyeronimus combo is always dangerous when the horse is already ticking.
3. La Fracas (No.5) — $9.85 / $2.30 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 35.6% | Place: 34.8% | Value: 1.02x
Why Talented mare and gets a good rider, but she needs everything to click in a race with proper pressure.
Roughie: Mal Coupe (No.8) — $8.10 / $3.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 41.7% | Value: 1.34x
Why Rolls forward, keeps finding, and if the others look at each other for two strides he'll be halfway home.
Race type: Chandon Phar Lap Stakes, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.2 Shangri La Boy and No.6 Top Reward rolling forward, and the shorty getting his shot from just off them.
Punty read: No.1 Sixties is the obvious horse and this race really does look ideal for him. But the quote is not exactly a charity donation. No.10 Panova is the value menace from the back if the race opens up, and No.2 Shangri La Boy gets fitter and further after getting his chance last time. If Sixties is Luke Skywalker, Panova is the bloke in the cantina who might still nick your wallet when you aren't looking.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Sixties (No.1) — $1.72 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$5.40
Prob 32.3% | Place: 75.7% | Value: 0.64x
Why This is the setup he wanted, and if J-Mac gets him off the fence at the right time, he should take plenty of beating.
2. Panova (No.10) — $7.50 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $11.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 46.9% | Place: 46.6% | Value: 2.24x
Why Pace could suit her down to the ground, and she's the one steaming home if the top few soften each other up.
3. Shangri La Boy (No.2) — $7.50 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 43.2% | Place: 43.2% | Value: 1.06x
Why Tongue tie goes on, fitter now, and if he gets control up front he's the one the favourite has to run down.
Roughie: West Of Swindon (No.3) — $12.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 34.3% | Value: 1.42x
Why Better suited back here than some of those sharper Victorian tests, and he can absolutely run a drum.
Race type: Coolmore Classic, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with No.7 Savvy Hallie pushing up, No.1 Lazzura handy, and a stack of runners wanting the same bit of turf.
Punty read: Million-dollar mares race, which usually means one half of the field is airborne and the other half is one forgiving run away from redemption. No.7 Savvy Hallie is the top pick on profile, but this is not some sort of penalty kick. No.6 Ole Dancer gets a much juicier place setup than the market gives her credit for, and No.2 Manaal with winkers first time is the smoky to jump out of the woodwork. There's enough depth here to fill a season of Survivor.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Savvy Hallie (No.7) — $5.00 / $5.20 🏆 11TH
Bet $13.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 16.7% | Place: 45.2% | Value: 0.97x
Why On-speed, tough, and consistent. If she gets across without spending too much, she'll give you a great sight.
2. Ole Dancer (No.6) — $7.80 / $5.70 🏆 12TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 37.6% | Place: 37.2% | Value: 2.49x
Why The drift is there, but the race shape helps and the place price looks far too fat for a mare with her talent.
3. Verona Rose (No.4) — $7.25 / $2.00 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.8% | Place: 33.8% | Value: 0.79x
Why Strong last-start winner and maps okay, but she's been found by the market and then some.
Roughie: Manaal (No.2) — $12.10 / $6.40 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 30.7% | Value: 1.46x
Why Winkers go on, barrier 2 is gold, and if she gets the suck run she can absolutely jag this at a tasty price.
Race type: Hyland Race Colours Ajax Stakes, 1500m
Map & tempo: Hot tempo with No.1 Globe, No.3 Robusto, No.4 Sandpaper and No.8 Cristal Clear all wanting to rev it up.
Punty read: Now this is my sort of race. Proper pressure, proper angles, and proper chance of a horse coming over the top like The Undertaker sitting up in the coffin. No.2 Militarize is the class act, but the price is a bit thin considering the race map. No.1 Globe gets every chance to land prominent and keep whacking. No.7 Enxuto draws to get the soft run, while No.3 Robusto is the cheeky old warhorse who can stick around way longer than the market expects.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Militarize (No.2) — $3.65 / $1.30 🏆 5TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 20.2% | Place: 55.5% | Value: 0.84x
Why He's the class edge in the race, and if McDonald can thread a path from barrier 1 he'll be charging late.
2. Globe (No.1) — $5.25 / $4.10 🏆 10TH
Bet $7.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 52.4% | Place: 52.1% | Value: 2.69x
Why Tough, fit, maps right on the speed, and in a burn-up like this he's the kind that keeps finding when others start making funeral noises.
3. Enxuto (No.7) — $6.75 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 42.5% | Place: 42.3% | Value: 1.01x
Why Drawn to get every possible favour and looks a genuine top-three hope, but the quote isn't stealing my lunch.
Roughie: Robusto (No.3) — $13.50 / $3.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 1.32x
Why If he crosses and keeps bowling, the old bugger can make the race uncomfortable for everyone chasing.
Race type: Schweppes (Bm88), 1400m
Map & tempo: Hot tempo with No.2 Perfumist, No.9 Glint Of Silver, No.12 Sovereign Hill and No.15 Elson Boy all revving up.
Punty read: The last is a beauty for anyone who enjoys finishing the day with elevated heart rate and a half-chewed ticket. There's enough speed here to set up something from midfield or worse, which helps No.11 Captain Furai if he gets the gaps. No.14 Modella is the strong place angle at a proper price, while No.12 Sovereign Hill is talented but might have to do a bit from out there. No.2 Perfumist is the roughie I can absolutely see pinching it if the track is still kind to leaders late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Captain Furai (No.11) — $3.30 / $1.30 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 23.4% | Place: 61.7% | Value: 0.92x
Why J-Mac goes on, he gets back to a suitable setup, and the hot tempo should drop him right into the race.
2. Modella (No.14) — $4.20 / $4.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.80
Prob 50.6% | Place: 51.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why Backed hard, drawn to settle where the race should unfold, and the place price is chunky enough to make you smile.
3. Sovereign Hill (No.12) — $5.65 / $1.70 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 50.2% | Place: 49.8% | Value: 0.94x
Why Proper horse with upside, but from out there in a speed race he might need to be very good rather than just good.
Roughie: Perfumist (No.2) — $8.85 / $4.90 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 36.2% | Value: 1.21x
Why If the inside lanes are still alive and Bayliss gets a soft enough crossing run, she'll take some catching.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3,11,1 / 2,1,6 / 5,1,4 / 4,8,5 (81 combos x $0.25 = $20.00) -- 25% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,10,2 / 7,6,4,2 / 2,1,7,3,6 / 11,14,12,2 (240 combos x $0.21 = $50.00) -- 21% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Pembrey (Race 3, No.3)✓ Won — $2.17
2 - Warwoven (Race 4, No.2)✓ Won — $2.77
3 - Sixties (Race 7, No.1)✓ Won — $1.72
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Chaos Merchants, Rosehill's rolled out a Good 4 with the rail True, the sun's out, the wind's light, and the card's got that beautiful "starts with a Midway fistfight, ends with a BM88 pub brawl" energy. This is not one of those bog-track ambush days where you need a snorkel and a priest. This is proper punting weather. The little tailwind up the straight should let swoopers build through their gears, but if something gets its own way in front and pinches a breather, it'll still take catching. In other words: standard Rosehill madness with a side of opportunity.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Rosehill, 1100-2000m card
Rail: True
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair with a slight late chance for runners who can sustain a sprint)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 23C (watch for the light tailwind up the straight helping closers finish off)
Early lane guess: Fair deck, middle lanes look fine, no obvious poison patch
Tempo profile: Mixed bag early, then the card gets spicy late with a stack of hot-pressure races
Jockeys to follow:
James McDonald, loaded with proper ammunition all day and lands on plenty that map to get the gun runs.
Tim Clark, when the Waterhouse/Bott speed horses are humming, he's the bloke pinching races like a bastard in a kebab queue.
Zac Lloyd, keeps popping up on live chances and place hopes, and he's often the one getting the economical smother.
Stables to respect:
Chris Waller (17 runners), he's brought half the suburb and the late card is crawling with his chances.
Bjorn Baker (9 runners), plenty of speed, plenty of intent, and a few that can make the market look silly.
Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (6 runners), classic front-half pressure yard today; if they control the map, they're in it up to their eyeballs.
Punty's take: Rosehill today looks like one of those cards where you don't want to get married to one pattern too early. The track should play honest enough, but that tailwind in the straight means backmarkers aren't instantly cooked if the speed is genuine. That's big later in the day when the 1500m races start looking like Mad Max with blinkers on. Race 9 and Race 10 especially have enough speed to turn into proper pressure cookers, and if you're blindly potting anything settling worse than midfield, you might end up looking like a bloke who backed the shark in Jaws.
The big stable story is Waller, obviously. He's got runners everywhere like Agent Smith in The Matrix. But this isn't just a "back everything navy blue and move on" sort of day. A few of his better-fancied ones look short enough, and there are spots where value sits against the obvious. Waterhouse/Bott bring their usual rolling-on-speed artillery, while Baker's sprinkled speed and chaos across the program like parmesan on a pub schnitty. If you're punting this card properly, you've got to respect map over hype.
The meeting shape screams this: use place bets in the messy races, save the win swings for the cleaner setups, and don't get seduced by every firming favourite like it's Margot Robbie walking into the birdcage. Race 1 is a raffle with hooves. Race 7 has a proper shorty in No.1 Sixties, but even there the value lurks underneath. Race 8 is the million-dollar mare war where half the field can win with the right run and the other half can make you tear your ticket up before they straighten.
What it means for you: Be aggressive where the map is clean and defensive where the race shape is chaos. That means leaning into place where the edge is obvious: horses like No.3 Mailata in Race 1, No.11 Ciaron's Star in Race 3, No.10 Panova in Race 7, and No.1 Globe in Race 9 all make plenty of sense for blokes who enjoy sleeping at night. The wide-open handicaps? Take the place juice, keep the powder dry, and don't pretend every open race needs a hero play.
The exotics are not a spray-and-pray exercise either. Where there's a strong top trio, the quinella or exacta makes sense. Where it's a genuine "throw the form guide in a blender" setup, keep it tight and accept the risk. Early Quaddie is the better sequence play; the main Quaddie has upside but it's still got enough moving parts to make a grown man start talking to himself. Big 6? Yeah nah. That's been sent to the naughty corner.
Most importantly, watch the map more than the market in the late races. The market's got some of these favourites short enough already. If you've got a runner with pace, cover, and a hoop who won't panic, that's your kind of horse today. Don't overcomplicate it. This isn't Oppenheimer. It's horse racing.