Saturday, 14 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Handicap, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Not much gas here, so settling handy matters and backmarkers need a miracle and a trumpet.
Punty read: This is a proper Caulfield staying trap. If they dawdle, the race can turn into a sit-sprint and suddenly every swooper is doing its best "hit the line" routine for fourth. No.7 Xtra Rush has been a winning machine and should lob close enough to strike. No.1 Foujita San gets another chance after being bailed up last start, while No.5 Stylish Secret has the knockout punch if the tempo is a shade better than expected.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Xtra Rush (No.7) — $2.93 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $18.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$18.00
Prob 30.2% | Place: 55.5% | Value: 0.99x
Why Progressive type who maps on-speed in a race with bugger-all tempo. If he gets rolling at the right time, they might not catch him.
2. Foujita San (No.1) — $3.38 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.00
Prob 42.8% | Place: 43.5% | Value: 1.44x
Why Got stiffed when held up at Randwick and the market's come for him. From barrier 4 he should get a much cleaner crack this time.
3. Stylish Secret (No.5) — $6.50 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 40.1% | Place: 39.2% | Value: 1.42x
Why Caulfield form is solid and the last-start excuse was real, but the 6kg rise is the little gremlin sitting on the shoulder.
Roughie: Sir Chartwell (No.4) — $43.50 / $15.17 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 12.3% | Value: 2.72x
Why If he holds a spot from barrier 3 and this turns into a crawling chess match, he can pinch a slice at a mad price.
Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.8 Gentle Steel rolls forward and keeps them honest, with the stalkers ready to pounce.
Punty read: Fresh sprint, proper pressure, and the market's been doing cartwheels. No.8 Gentle Steel has been smashed in betting and you can see why off the profile, but No.1 Oh Too Good looks the more complete setup for mine: fresh record, handy draw, and he won't be chasing from the car park. No.7 Photograph is the obvious talent horse, but he's short enough for one with a few little condition queries.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Oh Too Good (No.1) — $4.40 / $3.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 31.5% | Place: 57.9% | Value: 1.63x
Why Resumes with a lovely fresh profile, maps to get first run on the speed, and the stable has him humming.
2. Gentle Steel (No.8) — $3.40 / $2.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$11.00
Prob 53.3% | Place: 52.9% | Value: 1.62x
Why Rolls forward, keeps running, and dropping 3kg doesn't hurt. Hard to see him missing the top two if he gets his own way.
3. Photograph (No.7) — $2.53 / $1.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 49.5% | Place: 50.6% | Value: 0.61x
Why Talented enough, but the price is like paying blockbuster rates for a movie you've already half seen.
Roughie: Soft Love (No.5) — $6.50 / $2.83 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 25.2% | Value: 0.87x
Why Blinkers go on, he'll strip fitter second-up, and if they overdo it up front he's the one steaming late.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.5 Al Duca adds spice, but the inside on-pacers should get every chance.
Punty read: No.4 Harry's Yacht looks like the horse with the picnic basket. Drawn to stalk, loves the joint, and gets Jamie Melham steering. No.1 Veight is the danger if he parks close enough without burning petrol, while No.3 Athanatos has had a stack of backing but does tend to turn up and flirt without always sealing the deal. No.5 Al Duca is the pest in the race if he gets left alone up top.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Harry's Yacht (No.4) — $1.90 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $17.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$11.90
Prob 38.7% | Place: 68.0% | Value: 0.85x
Why Caulfield horse, perfect draw, ideal map. Gets the suck run and should be launching before the corner even knows what happened.
2. Veight (No.1) — $5.25 / $2.00 🏆 6TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 46.3% | Place: 45.6% | Value: 1.32x
Why Pace-advantaged, drawn to get the gun run, and better than the last-start wide trip suggests.
3. Athanatos (No.3) — $3.75 / $1.55 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 35.8% | Place: 36.9% | Value: 0.79x
Why Honest bastard and the market support is real, but I don't want to take skinny enough odds first-up when he's more grinder than killer.
Roughie: Al Duca (No.5) — $8.10 / $2.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 33.1% | Value: 1.42x
Why If he controls it or gets his own rhythm outside the lead, he's the one who can make the favourite actually work.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.6 Sister Shay rolls forward, and the closers will need the gaps at the right time.
Punty read: Tricky little mares race. No.1 Bossy Benita keeps finding and does her best work around this track, but No.2 Merrigold is the value angle because she rarely runs a bad one here and gets a perfect chance to blend in late if the leader overcooks it. No.9 Betwitchery gets the right smother and No.5 Miss Playlounge is the smoky if the class rise doesn't find her out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Bossy Benita (No.1) — $3.55 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet $14.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.50
Prob 25.6% | Place: 65.1% | Value: 1.09x
Why Loves 1400m here, races handy, and these are the sorts of mares races where tactical speed is gold.
2. Merrigold (No.2) — $5.90 / $3.20 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.35
Prob 54.2% | Place: 53.3% | Value: 1.66x
Why Honest as they come, excellent Caulfield record, and the place setup is juicy if she gets the right cart into it.
3. Betwitchery (No.9) — $6.00 / $2.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 42.3% | Place: 42.2% | Value: 0.85x
Why Drawn to be in the race and the yard's going well, but she can make life hard for herself if she misses the kick again.
Roughie: Miss Playlounge (No.5) — $10.00 / $2.80 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 41.7% | Value: 1.60x
Why Backed in, gets Jamie Melham, and if she settles closer than expected she'll be right in the movie.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.3 Toronado Queen and No.8 Empire Song roll along, with the handy brigade stalking.
Punty read: This is a proper 3yo dash where one or two lightly-raced types can jump out of the ground, but the map still matters. No.5 Purple Streak won on debut and gets a lovely setup to sit handy. No.6 High On The Hill looks the place play off raw upside, while No.1 Wintery is the grizzled old pub dog who just keeps turning up. No.3 Toronado Queen is the roughie with a genuine path if she crosses without spending too much petrol.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Purple Streak (No.5) — $2.55 / $1.90 🏆 7TH
Bet $18.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$18.00
Prob 26.4% | Place: 65.9% | Value: 0.81x
Why Debut win had plenty of zip, maps to get the right run, and Jamie Melham sticks like she's not here for the scenery.
2. High On The Hill (No.6) — $5.50 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.40
Prob 42.1% | Place: 42.4% | Value: 1.21x
Why Still learning but clearly has engine. If he gets the right trail, he'll be charging at them late.
3. Wintery (No.1) — $11.70 / $3.50 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 38.4% | Place: 37.3% | Value: 1.55x
Why Keeps racing well without always winning, and from barrier 5 he should land close enough to have a proper crack.
Roughie: Toronado Queen (No.3) — $10.25 / $4.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 42.6% | Value: 1.73x
Why If Logan Bates can spear across and control it without a war, she becomes the annoying one everyone underestimates.
Race type: Benchmark 80, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. That's the danger sign, because half these buggers want tempo and might get a funeral instead.
Punty read: This is the race where punters start saying "I just want to get through it" before promptly having three bets anyway. No.2 Sir Atlas is the obvious one but he does look a little short for a slow-run mile. No.3 Brung King gets his chance to bounce back if he parks handy enough, while No.5 Cat Noir and No.1 Buillt are both live if the gaps come. No.9 Colour Our World is a sneaky inclusion in wider thoughts because he can box-seat into it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Sir Atlas (No.2) — $2.95 / $2.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $19.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$38.00
Prob 20.7% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 0.73x
Why Good draw, pace help, and he only needs a fair run to be there late. Whether he's overs is another pub argument entirely.
2. Brung King (No.3) — $12.75 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 38.0% | Place: 36.7% | Value: 2.00x
Why Forget the last-start mess. If he gets back to his better pattern, this is a lovely place setup at a juicy quote.
3. Cat Noir (No.5) — $9.65 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 31.7% | Place: 31.3% | Value: 0.76x
Why Racing honestly and suited at the mile, but the map says he may need a tidy steer from Teo Nugent.
Roughie: Buillt (No.1) — $17.50 / $4.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 2.02x
Why Backmarker in a slow mile is terrifying stuff, but if they overcomplicate it up front and fan wide, he'll be one of the best closers.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.11 Lagunanini looks the leader, but this is 2yo chaos and a few of them could do anything from bolt in to look for Mum.
Punty read: Ah yes, The Showdown, where every ticket looks genius for 400m and landfill by the clock tower. No.10 Miss Chanel is favourite but not by a lot, which tells you all you need to know. No.1 Milsons Point has ability but comes with a little wobble after the last-start issue. No.3 Big Wigs gets blinkers and the hot hoop, while No.11 Lagunanini is the roughie/place play because barrier 1 and natural speed can turn a drift into a theft.
1. Milsons Point (No.1) — $8.50 / $2.20 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.44x
Why Talented, hot jockey, and if you forgive the last-start issue he's well in the mix, but this race is chaos in a school uniform.
2. Big Wigs (No.3) — $5.50 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 38.1% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.80x
Why Blinkers go on and he'll get every chance to settle close, but the price has got no fat on it in a raffle of a race.
3. Knurl (No.2) — $8.20 / $2.20 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 36.5% | Place: 30.6% | Value: 1.05x
Why Gelded since last run, drawn okay, and could improve sharply, but I've been burnt enough by babies to know better than diving in blindly.
Roughie: Lagunanini (No.11) — $9.00 / $3.40 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 41.2% | Value: 1.60x
Why Drawn the paint, has the early toe to use it, and if he gets control this could look like Ocean's Eleven levels of robbery.
Race type: Open, 1800m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.4 Bankers Choice rolls along, the Waller pair stalk, and the race should be properly run.
Punty read: Finally, a proper feature with a shape you can trust. No.2 Buckaroo is the class horse, No.5 Birdman is the sexy second-up runner, and No.3 Apulia is the juicy roughie because he was good back in trip and now gets to a sweeter distance. No.1 Light Infantry Man gets the map favours from barrier 1, but I don't want to be taking unders on him against this bunch.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Buckaroo (No.2) — $2.65 / $1.10 🏆 5TH
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 27.7% | Place: 53.1% | Value: 0.83x
Why Second-up profile is strong, Caulfield suits, and he's the sort of horse who can absorb pressure and still be there.
2. Birdman (No.5) — $2.97 / $2.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 45.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.51x
Why Backed like a good thing and gets Ben Melham, but in a 7-horse NTD race the place quote isn't doing cartwheels for me.
3. Light Infantry Man (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.35 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.8% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 0.70x
Why Maps sweetly and will get every chance from the inside, but he's not exactly hiding from the market.
Roughie: Apulia (No.3) — $10.00 / $2.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.6% | Place: 41.5% | Value: 2.32x
Why Perth Cup winner with a touch of class, and if this is truly run at 1800m he's the knockout blow horse.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.7 Veyepee should be positive, but there are enough runners here to make this a proper cavalry charge.
Punty read: This is the race where the favourite looks obvious until you start reading the map and suddenly you've got eight tabs open and a thousand-yard stare. No.12 Salty Pearl is the horse to beat, but he's short enough considering the field size and the fact a few others map better than the market says. No.1 Different Gravy fresh has claims, No.9 Cinturato is a little smokey with winkers, and No.5 Diamond Gust is the roughie with a serious swooping profile if the speed cooks.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Salty Pearl (No.12) — $2.35 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.00
Prob 22.9% | Place: 59.0% | Value: 0.65x
Why Honest, consistent and suited at the mile, but he's no moral in a race with this much moving traffic.
2. Veyepee (No.7) — $6.00 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 37.0% | Place: 37.5% | Value: 0.82x
Why Undefeated and drawn to make his own luck. If he gets left alone in front, things get very interesting very quickly.
3. Different Gravy (No.1) — $7.50 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 36.2% | Place: 36.2% | Value: 1.51x
Why Fresh horse, hot jockey, and barrier 16 is the sort of thing that either beats you or gives you a hero run down the crown.
Roughie: Diamond Gust (No.5) — $19.00 / $7.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 22.7% | Value: 1.63x
Why Held up with interference last start, maps to get the right trail, and if the speed collapses he's the one launching like The Undertaker sitting up in the coffin.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.1 Jigsaw should punch through and say "catch me if you can".
Punty read: Lovely way to finish the day. No.1 Jigsaw is the map horse and the class/speed horse, which is normally the sort of combo that empties wallets if you get cute. No.2 She's Bulletproof gets the right run behind the speed and looks the place play. No.4 Ndola is the obvious danger if the speed overcooks, while No.8 Raikoke is the fresh knockout if she's come back in one piece.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Jigsaw (No.1) — $2.80 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $18.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$28.80
Prob 30.5% | Place: 56.1% | Value: 0.98x
Why Loves 1200m, tough as an old boot, and if he crosses cleanly he'll have them under the pump a long way out.
2. She's Bulletproof (No.2) — $4.60 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.80
Prob 43.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.34x
Why Forget the last run where she wasn't tested. This map is kinder and Ben Melham should have her smoking the pipe behind the speed.
3. Ndola (No.4) — $3.33 / $2.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 42.9% | Place: 43.5% | Value: 1.53x
Why Proper honest mare with strong figures for this grade, but she's another one who doesn't get any luxury at the current quote.
Roughie: Raikoke (No.8) — $9.95 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 23.9% | Value: 1.27x
Why Fresh horse, good jockey, and if they belt each other early she can be the one stalking into the mess.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 4,1,3 / 1,2,5,9 / 5,3,1 / 2,3,1,9 (144 combos x $0.24 = $35.00) -- 24% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 11,1,3,2 / 2,5,3 / 12,7,1,5,9,3 / 1,2,4 (216 combos x $0.23 = $50.00) -- 23% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Oh Too Good (Race 2, No.1)✗ — $4.40
2 - Harry's Yacht (Race 3, No.4)✓ Won — $1.90
3 - Jigsaw (Race 10, No.1)✓ Won — $2.80
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Chaos Merchants, Caulfield's on a Good 4 with the rail shoved out 9m, which usually means if you're giving away a picnic blanket and three horse-widths turning for home, you're in strife. We've got a card full of little map traps, a couple of deadset landmines, and one or two races that look about as trustworthy as a bloke saying "I've only had two beers".
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Caulfield, 1100-2000m card
Rail: Out 9m Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair, with leaders and handy runners getting first crack)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 17C, light SE crosswind (watch for wide runners in the sprints)
Early lane guess: inside-to-middle lanes look the money lanes until proven otherwise
Tempo profile: plenty of genuine sprint pressure, but the mile-and-beyond races have a few crawl-and-sprint jobs where the map matters more than your aunty's crystal ball
Jockeys to follow:
Jamie Melham, loaded book with live chances from No.6 Furious to No.5 Purple Streak and No.8 Phillip Island; when she's rolling forward at Caulfield, it's usually for a reason
Ben Melham, strong hand with No.1 Milsons Point, No.5 Birdman and No.2 She's Bulletproof; plenty of runners that should get sweet smothers
Jye McNeil, partners No.2 Merrigold, No.4 The Troubleshooter, No.2 Buckaroo and No.4 Wetumpka; if the race turns tactical, he's the bloke you want in the trench
Stables to respect:
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (7 runners), deep team all day and they've got serious pieces in Photograph, Apulia, Storm Leopard and Ndola
C Maher (4 runners), Milsons Point, Light Infantry Man and Salty Pearl give the yard feature race heat, plus High On The Hill is no picnic
M Price & M Kent Jnr (4 runners), Purple Streak is the flashy kid, with Millennium Blade, Empire Song and Phillip Island giving the stable plenty of ammo
Punty's take: Caulfield with the rail out 9m can turn into a nightclub rope line: if you're in the right spot early, you're straight through; if you're posted deep and looking for luck, you're outside arguing with security. The 1200m races look especially map-heavy. No.1 Jigsaw in Race 10, No.5 Purple Streak in Race 5 and No.7 Xtra Rush in Race 1 all look like the sort that can make their own luck rather than wait for the racing gods to stop being bastards.
The meeting splits neatly into two personalities. Early doors you've got a few short-course races where the market's already throwing chairs around, No.1 Oh Too Good, No.8 Gentle Steel, No.4 Harry's Yacht, No.2 Sir Atlas. Then the back half gets weird. The Showdown in Race 7 is absolute junior footy at 9am energy: kids everywhere, no one knows where the ball's going, and one parent is definitely about to lose it. Race 9 isn't far behind, with No.12 Salty Pearl short enough but plenty of rougher smoke behind it if the tempo goes even a touch pear-shaped.
There's also a sneaky theme today: the place plays look cleaner than a lot of the win bets. Not because we're scared, but because a few races have obvious map advantages and less obvious finishing order. No.2 Merrigold, No.3 Brung King, No.5 Birdman and No.2 She's Bulletproof all profile like the kind that can run top-three even if they don't get the perfect Hollywood script.
What it means for you: Be aggressive where the map is obvious and defensive where the market's guessing. Race 2 is a proper launch race with No.1 Oh Too Good fresh and drawn to stalk the speed. Race 3 looks like No.4 Harry's Yacht gets every conceivable favour. Race 10 is the classic Caulfield sprint where you don't want to be getting cute if No.1 Jigsaw controls it.
Where I'd protect the wallet is Races 4, 6, 7 and 9. They're not impossible races, but they are "win the argument, lose the photo" sort of contests. That's where the place angles make more sense than trying to be Clint Eastwood with every dart. The Early Quaddie is the better sequence play too; the late quaddie has enough chaos in it to make a grown punter start talking to pot plants.
And if you're chasing exotics, keep them tight and race-shaped. A lot of today's quinellas are basically "these are the right horses, I just don't fully trust the order". That's not cowardice, that's experience. I've done enough damage trying to thread trifectas like I'm diffusing a bomb in Mission: Impossible.