Sunday, 05 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Rest 1 Win Hurdle, 3100m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace
Punty read: Hidalgo and The Belvoir are the ones trying to do the "proper race" thing, but Heavy 9 punishes runners who lose momentum early. This is where Leitrim Lad (on pace/midfield type) can go on quietly, then keep responding when the field starts to spilt like a bad nacho dip. My Maebelline Girl is the favourite and her wet profile/finish chances make her hard to ignore, even if she's not a front-running terminator.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. My Maebelline Girl (No.12) — $2.05 / $1.22 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$3.60
Why She's the cleanest "if it goes right, it goes right" type for this Heavy 9 stop-start pattern.
2. Leitrim Lad (No.6) — $5.95 / $2.10 🏆 2ND
Bet $11.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.90
Why Heavy track ally, she can grind on and hit the line like she's sick of everyone else's excuses.
3. Hidalgo (No.1) — $6.90 / $2.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Why Last run excuse (wide) fits the story, if she gets better ground-saving position, she's right there.
Roughie: Leprekhan (No.11) — $10.20 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why The bankroll's on the top of the card today — he makes the shortlist, not the betting slip.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace
Punty read: This is one of those 1400m maidens where the pace is crawling, so the winner is often the one who can actually find an opening late without getting stuck behind a wall of damp sadness. Drommy is the market anchor, but Bright Thoughts and Golden Point are the ones that can sneak into the right spot and keep going.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)
1. Drommy (No.2) — $2.24 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$5.00
Why The map works for her, if she holds a handy spot, you're not chasing ghosts late.
2. Golden Point (No.3) — $5.25 / $2.10 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$14.00
Why If this race turns into a "run-on" contest, she's built for it, and Heavy doesn't automatically kill her style.
3. Bright Thoughts (No.4) — $4.70 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Why Barrier 1 and a calm ride approach, she's the kind that can be there when the pack reshuffles.
Roughie: Viva L'amour (No.13) — $11.25 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why The bankroll's on the top of the card today — he makes the shortlist, not the betting slip.
Race type: Rest 1 Win Stpl, 3500m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace
Punty read: Long-distance jumping on Heavy is all about efficiency, who stays balanced, who doesn't waste motion, and who can keep grinding when everyone's tired. Mont Ventoux is your "boring but deadly" type: the sort that can sit closer than expected and keep giving. Renegade Fighter is the value play if the race shape favours those on pace.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)
1. Mont Ventoux (No.11) — $3.35 / $1.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Why He's got the wet-heavy staying rhythm, this is exactly the kind of race he can survive and then profit from.
2. Top Street (No.3) — $4.92 / $2.20 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Jerricoop (No.9) — $3.75 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet $2.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.50
Why Lightly-framed value for the place, if the leaders start to wobble, he's a type that can creep into the frame.
Roughie: Renegade Fighter (No.2) — $9.40 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why The bankroll's on the top of the card today — he makes the shortlist, not the betting slip.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace
Punty read: With this being a maiden on Heavy, the race can go either way, sometimes the favourite just runs into a gap, sometimes the whole thing is a traffic jam and everyone finishes in a heap. Dink looks like the one that can push up and actually take part, while Paddy Murphy and Vito are the "if they ping and keep showing up" threats.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Dink (No.6) — $2.38 / $1.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Why He's got the on-pace profile, when Heavy 9 slows everything down, being in the right lane early is everything.
2. Paddy Murphy (No.2) — $7.45 / $2.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Why A real chance — but at $2.65 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Vito (No.1) — $7.45 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why The numbers say he's more show than certainty at this level — not enough collect chance to earn a stake. On the watch list.
Roughie: Call Me A Cab (No.8) — $9.90 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why The bankroll's on the top of the card today — he makes the shortlist, not the betting slip.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace
Punty read: This is a staying grind where the winner is usually the one that doesn't get bullied by the first half. Rosina is the standout place win type, if she's got one gear in reserve, Heavy + 2200 turns into a "keep coming" contest. Dembe is the value spice if you want the roughie road.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)
1. Rosina (No.5) — $3.55 / $1.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Why She's built to run on in this sort of slow-flow Heavy 2200 where patience pays.
2. Mobilized (No.2) — $3.60 / $1.57 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dembe (No.6) — $10.40 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.50
Why Heavy track profile plus value, if the race turns into a chaotic finishing scramble, he's there.
Roughie: Lae Zee (No.3) — $10.40 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Why The bankroll's on the top of the card today — he makes the shortlist, not the betting slip.
Race type: Maiden, 1150m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace (leaders: Emac)
Punty read: 1150 on Heavy is a sprint in slow motion, if the pace is real, the leaders get every chance to hang on, and the midfield savers have to work overtime. Emac is the tactical lead type and Must Bee/ Sonar are the ones that can still keep coming after the first burst.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Emac (No.2) — $2.58 / $1.35 🏆 3RD
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 17.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.96x
Why He's literally drawn into the race, if he sets it up and doesn't do anything dumb, he's hard to knock off.
2. Must Bee (No.8) — $4.80 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.72x
Why A real chance — but at $2.55 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Sonar (No.10) — $4.90 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.60
Prob 15.1% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.08x
Why Comes into it late with enough pace to threaten if Emac gets pressed.
Roughie: Asal (No.1) — $11.40 / $3.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.86x
Why The bankroll's on the top of the card today — he makes the shortlist, not the betting slip.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace
Punty read: This one's a chaos handicap, there's no single Uber-lottery favourite, so you back the ones that either (1) can sit in the right spot, or (2) have the profile to keep improving through a Heavy-ish grind. Sir Fergus is the nominal sharpest win chance, but Feint To East and Empressive are the proper "race-shape" worries.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Sir Fergus (No.3) — $2.80 / $1.80 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 14.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.65x
Why Midfield-type that can keep momentum, if he finds a gap, this is the kind of race he makes look simple.
2. Feint To East (No.4) — $3.35 / $1.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 14.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.78x
Why Short enough to be live on place, and his profile suggests he can be there when the field starts to tire.
3. Empressive (No.5) — $8.30 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 11.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.57x
Why That's the value kicker, she's got a "don't get left behind" look, and Heavy 1400 can reward the right timing.
Roughie: Sacred Combatant (No.2) — $10.70 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $1.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$1.50
Prob 9.4% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.63x
Why Wet-proof profile and can absolutely hit the frame if the leaders get picked apart late.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 8,6,2,9 / 3,2,5,6 / 10,5,8,3 / 2,4,3,5 (256 combos x $0.23 = $59.50) -- 23% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - My Maebelline Girl (Race 1, No.12)✓ Won — $2.05
2 - Drommy (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $2.25
3 - Mont Ventoux (Race 3, No.11)✗ — $3.35
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Te Aroha's gone full Heavy 9 chaos, soft ground, rail true, and a bunch of horses that'll either float like a legend or knuckle up like a busted yo-yo. This is the sort of meeting where you want to be smart early, then brave later… but not the stupid kind of brave. We're building a spine: three horses to anchor you, then a multi to let the bastards pay you back.
2YOS, jumpers, and maidens aside, this track rewards one thing more than anything: a run that's not wasted. With Heavy 9, every stumble of momentum costs you. So in each race I'm hunting for the ones that either (1) map to get a tow into the race, or (2) have the wet-track look and the market doing its usual "nah mate, trust me" thing.
Now, let's talk speed. Even though the tempo profiles are generally not flying, you'll still see a couple of leaders/pressers try to control it, then the real danger is always the one that sits closer than you think and runs through the line like it's trying to win a backyard trophy.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Heavy 9, 1400-3500m card
Rail: True
Official going: Heavy 9 (expected to play deep and sticky, champions for those that can handle big, grinding action)
Weather: Fine (watch for a surface that can sit heavy but race like it's "slightly better than it looks")
Early lane guess: midfield lanes with a sprinkle of rail/inside stalking
Tempo profile: Moderate-to-slow early speed, then closing lanes matter more than fancy early fireworks
Jockeys to follow:
Sam McNab, keeps landing on the right horses in the wet, and he's got that "get position and don't panic" style
George Rooke, often pops up when the market's quietly whispering "this one's live"
Ashley Dascombe, when his runners are in the right spot, they usually don't just "place", they properly show up
Stables to respect:
N J Quinn (2 runners), two shots at this meeting: one of them's the sort that can survive Heavy 9 grind
Ben & Ryan Foote (2 runners), when they debut/return with intent, they've got a habit of making it look obvious
P & J Brosnan (multiple runners), wet-track jumpers and stayers often come from his camp when the conditions suit
Punty's take: This meeting is built like a slow-burn movie: everyone thinks it's gonna be a snooze-fest, then Heavy 9 turns the last 400m into a survival episode. In the staying jumps races, the winners don't usually sprint, they just keep finding courage at the same places others start giving it up. That's why we're leaning into the wet-experienced performers (like No.6 Leitrim Lad in Race 1) and the ones that can get a clean run without losing ground.
In the flat maidens and BM races, it's simpler: if a horse has pace to get into it early (or the draw lets them hold a workable position), you're cooking. If they're drifting in the market, you've gotta be careful, some will still place, but the ones I'm focusing on either have class-form in the background or the sort of profile Heavy 9 loves.
What it means for you: Back smart, not polite. Early doors (Races 1-2) I want you building with place-friendly confidence, Heavy 9 means more "battles" and fewer clean run-throughs, so your best mate is often the horse that can still hit the line after being shuffled. Later (Races 6-7 especially), when the pace is genuine or the field's more open, you've gotta be willing to take the value/roughie path, just not at the stupid roughie band.
If you're doing the multi, you're basically paying for one thing: the spine horses all holding form long enough that the other legs don't need a miracle. Then if you're feeling cheeky, you can layer in a roughie where the market and profile disagree, because that's how legends are born and mugs are created. Don't be a mug.