Monday, 24 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: CLASS 1, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Cannystep and The Comanche advantaged
Punty read: This is the kind of 1600m where the speed doesn't explode, it just creeps forward, then the whole field starts paddling at the same time. The Comanche (No.4) is drawn well enough to sit in the right midfield lane and use that soft-ground action to go on with it, while Pelosa (No.6) can get the run of the race and still be there at the end. Cannystep (No.1) is the "maybe traffic, maybe timing" horse, but the pacifiers first time can sharpen him up into a better rhythm.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. The Comanche (No.4) — $2.32 / $1.37 🏆 4TH
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 32.0% | Place: 66.0% | Value: 0.90x
Why Market supports him hard, and his speed map fits the slow-tempo script. He just needs to avoid getting lost in the pack.
2. Pelosa (No.6) — $3.33 / $1.99 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.5% | Place: 57.3% | Value: 0.99x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Creative Righteous (No.2) — $5.25 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.05x
Why She's got the interference bounce-back angle, but this is still a tough spot with the favourites right there.
Roughie: Follow That Dream (No.8) — $9.20 / $3.30 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 21.3% | Value: 0.97x
Why Needs everything to go right in the last 300m, she's more of a "run on and steal a cheque" type in a soft one.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, In Bocca Al Lupe and Gallant Rush advantaged
Punty read: Maiden chaos with a front-running leaning, so you want a horse that either starts the job early or gets a smooth first half. Fratianno (No.3) is the one, drawn inside enough to avoid getting shuffled, and the form suggests the blink-and-you-miss-it runs can sharpen into something better. In Bocca Al Lupe (No.4) is on the pace map too, and if he's not punching at the wrong end, he can absolutely be there in the finish. Zo Frilling (No.12) is the outside play that can pop a price if the leaders hit the wall.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Fratianno (No.3) — $1.28 / $1.01 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 64.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.35x
Why Close draw, strong soft-ground profile, and if he jumps like he's supposed to, he makes his own luck.
2. In Bocca Al Lupe (No.4) — $4.80 / $1.25 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.75x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Elton (No.2) — $8.20 / $1.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.84x
Why Could get into the placings, but I don't want to pay for a "maybe" in a maiden sprint.
Roughie: Zo Frilling (No.12) — $15.75 / $2.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.6% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.96x
Why For her to win you need the race to fall apart early, then she's the one that can run over the top late.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Bobby and Fashion Spree advantaged
Punty read: 1400m maiden on soft, slow tempo, means the run to the line matters more than the first 150m. Kiss Of Gold (No.7) maps midfield but has the profile to take advantage once the leaders start shifting and tiring. Strasbelle (No.10) is the big danger, she's got a strong place look and her blinkers first time can help her focus. Birdy Girl (No.5) is a value-shaped runner, but she's the sort you back expecting a late swoop, not a miracle early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Kiss Of Gold (No.7) — $1.92 / $1.10 🏆 10TH
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 37.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.84x
Why She's been up close enough to get involved, and on slow-run races, she's the type that just keeps rolling.
2. Strasbelle (No.10) — $3.80 / $1.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 26.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.41x
Why Blinkers first time and a strong place profile, she's the one most likely to be in the mix at the line without needing everything.
3. Birdy Girl (No.5) — $9.00 / $2.45 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 45.5% | Value: 1.55x
Why Each-way traits are there, but the market's got her a touch too expensive for the place band today.
Roughie: Bobby (No.2) — $12.50 / $2.85 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.8% | Place: 25.2% | Value: 0.79x
Why If there's traffic and a shuffle, he can sneak into the end of the field where 1400m soft races reward patience.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Cosmic Jive leading
Punty read: This is the 1000m sprint where the ground does half the work for you, and the jockey does the other half by finding the clean path. Pomelo Chamomile (No.14) is the standout for me because she's drawn the two gate off the rail and tongue tie first time can help her keep a sharper action on soft. Cosmic Jive (No.8) is trying to lead, and if the front doesn't crack, he can absolutely pinch it. Qui Rouge (No.6) has speed but might need the right run through, while Dream A Little (No.4) is the type to run on if they go a genuine tempo.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Pomelo Chamomile (No.14) — $2.40 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 38.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why Tongue tie first time, on-pace, and the rail setup suits a horse that can strike early and not lose momentum.
2. Cosmic Jive (No.8) — $3.50 / $1.57 🏆 6TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 17.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.71x
Why If he leads, he sets the race up. Place is the safe lane in a soft 1000m where the finish comes fast.
3. Qui Rouge (No.6) — $5.60 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.75x
Why Too hard to predict where she lands through the chaos, even though she can run a cheeky race.
Roughie: Love You Anyway (No.5) — $10.00 / $2.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 0.73x
Why She's a danger if the tempo holds up, then she can run over the top when the leaders start to wobble.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Issy's Star and Triple Yes advantaged
Punty read: 1000m again, and this time it's class and position that decide it. Issy's Star (No.1) has the speed map to be on pace, and the market's tightened him up because he's the type who can hold the straight without getting swallowed by the soft. Dirty Does It (No.8) is in the same "place is the target" boat, he's got enough to hold position and kick late. The Warrior (No.3) is the honest alternative, but this is where you protect your money by backing the horse that looks like it can see the line.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Issy's Star (No.1) — $3.15 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$43.00
Prob 29.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why Market's calling him the one, and the pace map says he's not just running, he's racing. Soft 1000m suits this style.
2. The Warrior (No.3) — $4.70 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.80
Prob 16.5% | Place: 62.4% | Value: 0.99x
Why If Issy's Star does the front-running job, he's the one who's most likely to chase into the money. Place is the play.
3. Dirty Does It (No.8) — $5.10 / $1.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.02x
Why Can hit the placings, but I'm not paying for that sort of uncertainty in a sprint.
Roughie: Don't (No.2) — $11.00 / $2.85 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.19x
Why If the pace collapses and the inside path opens late, he can swoop, but he needs the race to help him.
Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Damascus Gate and a few others advantaged
Punty read: This is a "who survives the middle" 1400m, not a sprint. Damascus Gate (No.1) is the leader type and the one who can put his name on the race early, and on soft ground that can be a massive advantage because you don't want to be scrambling off the back. Mosgiel Crystal (No.10) is a backmarker profile but with enough finishing power to be a threat if the leaders don't sprint away. Smart Jazz (No.8) is the late runner, and if he's got a clean passage he can run into the finish, but he's not the first horse I want for the win.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Damascus Gate (No.1) — $3.05 / $1.45 🏆 6TH
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 31.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why He gets to the front and doesn't look like he'll stop, even when the track grips. Soft 1400m rewards leaders who can keep rolling.
2. Mosgiel Crystal (No.10) — $4.40 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.75
Prob 19.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why If the speed is genuine, she can get stuck in late. Place is where she's hardest to beat.
3. Smart Jazz (No.8) — $7.20 / $2.40 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 36.5% | Value: 1.01x
Why He's live late, but there are too many "in front of him" types for comfort at this price.
Roughie: Explosive Tycoon (No.5) — $10.25 / $2.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.29x
Why He's got enough midfield strength to improve if the leaders tire in the last 400m.
Race type: OPEN HANDICAP, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Run Rory Run and Xtra Approval advantaged
Punty read: 1500m handicap on soft means you want a horse that can carry its speed without getting swamped by the bigger moves. Navy Steel (No.6) is the key, she's got that on-pace pattern and the market is leaning that way too. Hibiki Harmony (No.5) sits handy and is the one I'm backing for a place that can also pinch a win if the tempo makes a mistake. Tact (No.8) is there to run a tough trip and pick up the pieces late, but it's a deeper race than it looks on the numbers. Rothrock (No.7) is the roughie because handicaps can turn into chaos if the front bunches and collapses.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Navy Steel (No.6) — $2.82 / $1.37 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 28.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.01x
Why Best chance is simple, she's on speed and the race shape suits. 1500m on soft needs you to be there, and she will be.
2. Hibiki Harmony (No.5) — $4.70 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.88
Prob 17.8% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.06x
Why Place is the sweet spot, she's positioned well to take advantage when the field strings out.
3. Tact (No.8) — $5.10 / $1.82 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 54.5% | Value: 0.97x
Why She's not dead, but she's the type that can run into traffic and lose the value lane.
Roughie: Rothrock (No.7) — $17.00 / $3.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.86x
Why Needs the big boys to misjudge it, then she swoops in the chaos like a drunk mate joining the footy while everyone's still running.
Race type: BENCHMARK 74, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Cool Fizz and Grassburn advantaged
Punty read: This is a sprint where the "winner" might be the one who just gets the best run at 100m, not the best horse on paper. Cresta Run (No.6) is the likely leader, and on 1000m soft, those leaders can hold on longer than you think. Grassburn (No.10) is a big danger, he has pace and the ground suits runners who can keep their feet under them. Grey Effects (No.5) looks like a classic "place if things go wrong" horse, and The Piccolino (No.11) is the roughie because these soft 1000s can absolutely throw you a curveball.
Top 3 + Roughie ($23.50 pool)
1. Cresta Run (No.6) — $3.30 / $1.52 🏆 7TH
Bet $17.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.50
Prob 25.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why He gets to the front and the whole race gets easier from there. Soft ground rewards controlled speed, and he looks like he'll get it.
2. Grassburn (No.10) — $6.20 / $2.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.50
Prob 15.1% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 1.16x
Why Strong on the speed map, plus the market has him in range, he can sit closer than people think.
3. Grey Effects (No.5) — $5.10 / $1.82 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 58.2% | Value: 0.87x
Why Can run a race, but he's more likely to be a "close fourth" type than the clean place.
Roughie: The Piccolino (No.11) — $9.20 / $2.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $1.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.65
Prob 9.8% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why He can get a run into the right spot, and soft 1000m gives him a chance to hold a position late.
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Fratianno (Race 2, No.3)✗ — $1.28
2 - Kiss Of Gold (Race 3, No.7)✗ — $1.92
3 - Pomelo Chamomile (Race 4, No.14)✗ — $2.40
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Tuncurry on a Soft 7 where the track's been getting its boots re-laced all week, and the early tempo's sitting there like a lazy Sunday playlist, slow and steady till someone decides to hit play properly. If you like winners, you'll do fine, but if you chase only value, you're gonna get cooked by the odd one that finds the line late and wrecks your ticket like it owes you money.
I'm treating today like a smooth operator meets a chaotic gremlin. The rail's true, the rain's light today but the ground's still got that hold, and that means the leaders get first crack, but the ones with the right stalking spot get the second bite. There's plenty of "make it look easy" races on the card, plus a couple where you either respect the favourites or you get creative and pray to the turf gods.
Now crack in, because we've got a clean spine with my Big 3, then the race-by-race guide to where the track wants you to be standing when the gates open.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 7, 1000m to 1600m card
Rail: +1m 400m - 300m; True Remainder
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play Courser speed, then stamina finishing bursts, where the ground still holds)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 18°C, humidity 82%, wind 13km/h NNE (watch for gusts and late hold-up chances)
Early lane guess: Quaddie lanes: Races 5 to 8 look like the money-making zone, early Quaddie is tight but sneaky
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate, so if you're back too far you're buying oxygen with your ticket
Jockeys to follow:
Zac Wadick: big-race timing and he's positioned to get involved early in a few key sprints.
Ben Looker: steady hands, and he's around the mark in plenty of "place-first" type races.
Ms Mollie Fitzgerald: when the market backs her, she usually makes it count.
Stables to respect:
P Cheers (2 runners): keeps turning up and the gear changes actually matter today.
Jay Hopkins (2 runners): likes a wet-ground type, and today's soft enough to let these horses run through their actions.
Colt Prosser (2 runners): can lift their juveniles or midweek battlers, and when they do, they do it properly.
Punty's take:
This meeting is basically, "Who's got the best position and who's brave enough to use it?" On a Soft 7, you can get away with being a touch worse early, but only if you've got the finishing plan and a jockey who can navigate without wasting metres. The pace profile says slow, so I want horses that can either hold a spot near the front, or stalk with cover and still have something left on the line.
The favourites are generally there for a reason today. In Race 2 and Race 3, the market is pointing the way, but in Race 4 and Race 8 the speed lanes can get messy, and one wrong step at 1000m on soft can turn a "should win" into a "why did I do that". My strategy is straightforward, get on the reliable spine, then lean into the races where the value is hiding in plain sight.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive early where the pace and class line up, then play slightly more protective once we hit the sprint chaos. Place bets are gold today because the ground keeps things honest, and the short fields in the later races can turn a third into a win for the right horse in the right lane.
In the lanes, I'm not trying to be clever, I'm trying to be consistent. Early Quaddie is built to survive tight races, Quaddie is where you spread a bit more because Races 5 to 8 are where dividends are usually hiding. If you're only backing one thing today, back the Big 3 spine and then treat the rest as "supporting cast" rather than a whole new movie.