Was I any good or just loud? October 2026 scorecard truth

October returned +17.4% ROI across 1534 bets, which (for the math-nerds) lands likely between +9.4% and +25.6%.

Right, the question everybody pretends they don't care about: was I actually good last month, or did I just talk louder than the market?

Because the worst thing about punting is how easy it is to feel confident when the universe is feeling cooperative. The second worst thing is doing that again when it isn't.

So here's the ledger. No marketing. No motivational posters. Just numbers and the occasional bruise.

The month in one punch: ROI, strike, and whether it's "real"

Last month had 1534 bets and 650 winners, for a strike rate of 42.4%. You can call that "pretty good" if you like. I call it "not embarrassing".

The real answer to your "luck or skill?" anxiety is the ROI: +17.4% (n=1534, likely between +9.4% and +25.6%; no-effect line 0.0%). That's the key bit. This isn't some tiny sample where one lucky week has you doing victory laps.

P&L was +$3,106.17 on staked $17,804.04. Again: the sort of result you don't get from vibes alone.

For contrast, September was basically a ghost story: 1596 bets, 669 winners (41.9% strike), staked $17,637.48, and P&L -$4.81. ROI 0.0%. Same general strike rate universe, wildly different financial outcome. That's why we respect odds, not just wins.

Weekly form: the win streak wasn't a fluke, but it wasn't uniform

If you're looking for "did it all happen in one manic week", October says: nah.

• Week of 28 Sep: 259 bets, 105 winners (40.5%), staked $2,954.75, P&L +$643.80 (ROI +21.8%)
• Week of 05 Oct: 361 bets, 159 winners (44.0%), staked $4,221.88, P&L +$685.39 (ROI +16.2%)
• Week of 12 Oct: 313 bets, 134 winners (42.8%), staked $3,627.35, P&L +$681.89 (ROI +18.8%)
• Week of 19 Oct: 308 bets, 130 winners (42.2%), staked $3,566.76, P&L +$422.04 (ROI +11.8%)
• Week of 26 Oct: 293 bets, 122 winners (41.6%), staked $3,433.30, P&L +$673.05 (ROI +19.6%)

That last bit is important. Even the "worst" week in ROI terms (still +11.8%) wasn't a wipeout. The returns weren't all eggs in one basket. It was more like a reasonably competent machine putting money in the jar most weeks, then occasionally doing a little jig.

Bet type breakdown: the money wasn't evenly distributed

You can be right on winners and still donate money if the bet type is wrong for the value.

Win bets did most of the lifting:

• Win: 1116 bets, 442 winners (39.6% strike), staked $13,593.79, P&L +$2,783.79 (ROI +20.5%)

Each-way was a secret engine:

• Each Way: 341 bets, 181 winners (53.1% strike), staked $3,791.25, P&L +$322.69 (ROI +8.5%)

Place was basically there to teach humility:

• Place: 77 bets, 27 winners (35.1% strike), staked $419.00, P&L -$0.31 (ROI -0.1%)

So yes, I was "good", but it was Win and Each Way doing the heavy work, with Place not exactly pulling its weight.

Top-ranked pick only: the best idea wasn't a tyre fire

Another sanity check: when I rank them and trust my own number-one spot, does it still pay?

Top-ranked pick only:

• 1449 bets, 622 winners (42.9% strike), staked $17,313.54, P&L +$3,133.88 (ROI +18.1%)

That's not just profitable. It's the sort of profitability you want, because it suggests the ranking process isn't totally cooked.

Sometimes the "top pick" is just the one you remember. This time, the ledger remembered back.

Venues: some places paid, some places mugged me

This is where your "am I good?" question gets spicy, because it exposes where your approach is finding edges and where it's walking into train stations.

Best by P&L/ROI vibes:

• Sha Tin: 80 bets, 34 winners (42.5%), staked $836.50, P&L +$317.98 (ROI +38.0%)
• Muswellbrook: 15 bets, 11 winners (73.3%), staked $172.50, P&L +$268.55 (ROI +155.7%)
• Dubbo: 17 bets, 11 winners (64.7%), staked $213.50, P&L +$188.27 (ROI +88.2%)

Worst by P&L:

• Morphettville: 28 bets, 8 winners (28.6%), staked $308.50, P&L -$97.34 (ROI -31.6%)
• Orange: 14 bets, 2 winners (14.3%), staked $163.37, P&L -$115.82 (ROI -70.9%)
• Flemington: 29 bets, 5 winners (17.2%), staked $350.50, P&L -$138.57 (ROI -39.5%)

Small sample alert: Muswellbrook and Dubbo have tiny bet counts. You can't declare genius just because the door opened and the horse ran straight. But Sha Tin is a decent-enough sample to take seriously.

The clear message: I'm not "good at racing", I'm good at some races, some markets, and some environments. Like most of us, I'm also susceptible to other environments. Trauma is educational.

So… was I any good or just loud?

With 1534 bets and an ROI of +17.4% (n=1534, likely between +9.4% and +25.6%; no-effect line 0.0%), you weren't just hearing your own confidence echo.

September proved the danger of getting attached to strike rate alone. October proved that price/value mattered and that the month wasn't a one-week miracle.

What to do with this (actual next steps)

1. Keep backing the Win and Each Way angles. Win bets delivered +$2,783.79 (ROI +20.5%) on 1116 bets. Each Way was positive too, just less efficient (+$322.69, ROI +8.5% on 341).

2. Treat Place as "confirm, don't drive". ROI -0.1% on 77 bets is not a system, it's a hobby.

3. Be venue-aware. Sha Tin looks like it fits your approach. Flemington and Morphettville were where the maths got mean.

If you want the brutally honest summary: October says you can trust your process more often than your ego. Which is a nice change.