2026 Crown Oaks Preview: Punty's Runner-by-Runner, Odds & Model

We make her 39.1% and the market has her at $2.56, a fair price of $2.55 against that, so the edge is +0.4%. Most likely winner, and priced almost exactly right.

The record is five wins from five, and the Group 1 win at Randwick on 24 October over 2000m, by 1.5 lengths against eight others, is a bigger piece of form than anything else in this field. She won first-up and second-up, she has won at 1030m in a trial and 1800m in a Group 3, and she has won on three different track types. The sticking points are real. She has never run beyond 2000m, she has never raced at Flemington, and barrier 19 is the second-widest draw in the race. Zac Lloyd can ride her midfield from there, and that is where our map has her, but it may cost her ground.

If she runs the trip out, she wins often enough to be the most likely winner. If she doesn't, we will know in the last 400m. That is our read, and the 1 rank is about the numbers, not a promise.

Icelady has run a lot of good races without winning many. Seven starts for one win, four seconds and a third, and the Caulfield Group 1 second over 1600m was a big run. She was third in the Wakeful-type race over 2000m on 31 October, beaten 2.8 lengths, and she dropped 1kg to 56kg today, with De Armas carrying 56kg both times. That is a small point in her favour. Set weights mean nobody gets an edge, but she is now level on the scale with the one that beat her.

Our map likes her more than anyone's. She is on pace from barrier 4 and our map rates her as the best-helped runner in the race. If Quick Finish goes forward and Icelady sits one-off, she gets the run. The 2500m is the question, because she has not raced beyond 2000m and she hung in at times. We make her 9.5% against a market $9.20, a fair price of $10.53, and an edge of -12.6%. That is on the wrong side of fair, so a chance but not value.

Quick Finish is the only horse in the field to have raced 2500m at Flemington, and she ran third in a Group 1, 3.2 lengths behind the winner, on 31 October. Three wins from five starts with a Group 3 win over 2000m at Caulfield, leading all the way, tells you what she does: she gets in front and tries to stay there.

She is the only leader on our map, so she gets to roll along at her own tempo from barrier 5. That is a good thing. But we make her 4.8%, a fair price of $20.70, and the market has her at $15.50, an edge of -25.1%. She is a rough chance and the market is being generous to her, perhaps on the back of that Group 1 third. The McEvoys have three runners, Quick Finish, Expensive Taste and Courting, and the stable's last 100 runners have struck less often than their prices suggest, though 100 runners is a thin sample.

De Armas is the danger. She won the Group 2 over 2000m at Flemington on 31 October, settling back and finishing home by 1.2 lengths, and the Wakeful-type lead-up has been the strongest route to the Oaks in recent years (INTERESTING, n=10). James McDonald takes over from Blake Shinn, and she is drawn barrier 1.

But we make her 23.9% and the market has her at $3.15. Our fair price is $4.18, which puts the edge at -24.6%. She is a strong chance and under the odds, and there is nothing contradictory about that. She raced greenly and hung out on straightening last start, and she hung in or out in two of her previous three. Barrier 1 helps her with the rail, but over 2500m she is getting very tired in a fifth start in six weeks. We make her a genuine runner, but that price is too short. We would want $4.90.

Waller has three runners in this race, De Armas, Your Colour and Tharwa, and this is the best of them on form.

Voynichese won twice on Soft tracks and has not run a place in her last five, finishing seventh in the Group 2 at Flemington on 31 October, beaten 6 lengths. The rain may help her, but the track is Good 4. Declan Bates rides from barrier 7. We make her 1.4%, a fair price of $71.43, against a market $67.00, an edge of -6.2%. She needs everything.

Salann was third in a Group 2 over 2040m at Flemington on 24 October, beaten 2.2 lengths, and was held up at 400m in a Group 1 over 1600m before that. A maiden has not won in six starts. She is drawn barrier 12 and our map has her at the back. We make her 1.9%, a fair price of $52.63, and the market has her at $46.00, an edge of -12.6%. Ms Rachel King rides, and the Flemington form is the best thing about her, but she needs everything.

Churchill Rose ran fourth in the Group 2 at Flemington on 31 October, settling third and beaten 4 lengths, and second in a Listed at Morphettville over 1800m. Her one win was with 52.5kg at Murray Bridge, where she is carrying 56kg today, and the weight analysis says she has been better lighter. Set weights do not move for her. Craig Williams rides from barrier 10. We make her 1.5%, a fair price of $65.79, against a market $42.00, an edge of -36.2%. The market is generous.

Your Colour is the second Waller runner in the field. She was second at Caulfield in a Group 3 over 2000m, and a long way behind in the Group 2 at Flemington last start after being slowly away and failing to respond. The slow starts are a pattern, with a hampered start in two other runs. From barrier 14 on a back-of-field map she will need luck. We make her 2.7%, a fair price of $36.90, and the market has her at $29.00, so an edge of -21.4%. Something for the exotics rather than the win.

Joely was seventh at Flemington over 2040m on 24 October when she began awkwardly and was held up near 400m. That is a reasonable excuse. She won a maiden at Echuca after a slow start and was second in a Group 2 over 1600m at Flemington. Kerrin McEvoy rides from barrier 18, and she has not been beyond 2040m. We make her 1.5%, a fair price of $66.67, against a market $61.00, an edge of -8.5%. She needs everything from that draw.

Expensive Taste has run nine times for no wins, two seconds and three thirds, mostly in maidens, with a fifth in a Listed at Geelong over 2200m. That is the longest trip in this field apart from Quick Finish. The gear change is a cross-over nose band first time. Luke Currie rides from barrier 11. We make her 0.6%, a fair price of $172.41, against a market $126.00, an edge of -26.9%. The map has her at the back and the numbers rank her last.

Notified was eighth at Caulfield in a Group 3 over 2000m, and eighth in a Listed at Flemington over 1800m after being slowly away, and 18 days between runs. Billy Egan rides from barrier 15 and is in good form, with 16 winners from his last 100, though that is a thin sample. We make her 0.6%, a fair price of $169.49, against a market $101.00, an edge of -40.4%.

Refuse To Curtsy ran third in a Group 3 over 2000m at Caulfield, settling 12th and finishing 1 length off. That is a better run than the record suggests. The gear change is Equicast first time. She has won one maiden at Kilmore. From barrier 13, with John Allen riding, she is at the back on our map. We make her 1.6%, a fair price of $62.89, and the market has her at $51.00, so the edge is -18.9%. A decent run in the market is possible, but it needs everything.

Nikitria ran sixth in the Group 2 at Flemington on 31 October, beaten 5.8 lengths, and backs up in four days with blinkers on again. Ben Melham rides from barrier 16, and the one win came in a Seymour maiden. C W McDonald is a trainer in good form, with 20 winners from his last 100 runners, though that is a thin sample. We make her 0.8%, a fair price of $131.58, against a market $110.00, an edge of -16.4%.

Waiheke Rose ran last on Tuesday, a Listed 1800m at Flemington, where she was hampered at the start, led, and finished ninth. That is a two-day backup, and the gear change is ear muffs off. She won a maiden at Kembla Grange by three lengths. She has not been beyond 1800m, and she is on pace from barrier 6. We make her 2.1%, a fair price of $48.78, against a market $41.00, an edge of -15.9%. She could pressure Quick Finish in the early stages but is better kept to the exotics.

Tharwa is our roughie, and that is a different thing from calling her a winner. She is yet to win in five starts, has two placings, ran a late-closing fourth at Caulfield in a Group 3 over 2000m despite being held up and hampered, and then ran ninth in the Group 2 at Flemington on 31 October when she was keen and settled well back.

We make her 3.1%, a fair price of $32.05, and she is $36.00 in the market, which gives an edge of +12.3%. At that price the numbers say there is a small overlay. We would call her value at $36.90 or better. She has Damian Lane, who has been riding well, and she is drawn barrier 17 and settles back. The map says she has plenty to do. If the tempo is moderate, she is not helped. That is why she is a roughie.

Shameful Impulse ran fifth in the Group 2 at Flemington on 31 October after being slowly away, beaten 5.2 lengths. That was from barrier 17. She has a win at Wodonga in a maiden and a third in a Benchmark 66. Barrier 8 is better, but her map position is at the back. We make her 1.7%, a fair price of $58.82, against a market $67.00, an edge of +13.9%. There is a small overlay but she needs everything to go right.

Quynh won a Bendigo maiden over 1600m on 17 October then ran tenth in the Group 2 at Flemington on 31 October, beaten 7.3 lengths. A jump to a Group 1 over 2500m is a big ask. Barrier 3 is the best thing about her, and no jockey is listed yet. We make her 0.9%, a fair price of $111.11, against a market $101.00, an edge of -9.1%.

Little Ally Bama won a Horsham maiden by a nose over 2100m and has not run in anything like this class. A drop in the pool to a Group 1 is a big jump. Linda Meech rides from barrier 2, and a slow-away or held-up run is common. We make her 0.7%, a fair price of $135.14, against a market $91.00, an edge of -32.7%.

Courting is yet to win in four starts and ran second at Horsham over 2100m in a maiden. The gear change is blinkers first time. From barrier 20, the widest draw, with a back-of-field map, she has plenty to do, and no jockey is listed yet. We make her 0.9%, a fair price of $116.28, against a market $91.00, an edge of -21.7%. The 2100m was her longest trip.

Chocolate Freckles was second at Mornington over 1500m, slowly away and held up, beaten 0.4 lengths. She has run three times and has not been beyond 1500m. We make her 0.7%, a fair price of $140.85, against a market $151.00, an edge of +7.2%, a small overlay on a very long price. From the big step up to Group 1 level this is a plain trip into the unknown.