Saturday, 23 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Open; 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine speed with Farnova and a few on-pacers pressing forward; the race should be run at a proper lick
Punty read: This is a speed vs stamina scrap and the market has gone a bit feral on Luna Will Do, but I'm not swallowing that price whole. Levati Dimezzo is the nicest horse in the race to map from midfield and improve off that eye-catching debut. Farnova can absolutely pinch it if he gets an easy lead, while Ace Queen Suited is the value one with the race excuses in the locker. Dawn Dancer is the roughie if the freshen-up and trial have sharpened the old girl up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($30.00 pool)
1. Levati Dimezzo (No.2) — $9.00 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 19.4% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 2.18x
Why Chased home strongly on debut and should get the right run stalking the speed without having to do the donkey work.
2. Farnova (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 52.1% | Value: 2.16x
Why Maps to roll forward and make them chase; if she controls it, she'll be hard to reel in.
3. Ace Queen Suited (No.6) — $10.00 / $2.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$33.00
Prob 15.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.93x
Why Last-start interference gave her a proper excuse and the market hasn't quite caught up to the bounce-back chance.
Roughie: Dawn Dancer (No.1) — $19.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 40.2% | Value: 3.08x
Why Freshened up, trialled well, and the class drop makes her the blowout if the race gets messy.
Race type: Rst 0 Met Win-LY; 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with a few sitting off the speed; the race shapes like a midfield chess match
Punty read: Masterly is the map horse and the market's clearly had a sniff, but this is still a murky old thing. Jazalot looks the sort who can run a cheeky race if the tempo turns ugly, and Mohegan Ruler is the one people will lean on from the map. I'm treating the favourite with caution - good horse, but the price is tight enough to make you blink. Cheryl's Shout is the roughie if the run of the race falls into her lap.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Masterly (No.6) — $8.00 / $2.70 🏆 8TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 12.8% | Place: 37.4% | Value: 1.28x
Why On-pace profile and market support make sense - if he lands handy without burning petrol, he's right in the fight.
2. Jazalot (No.5) — $19.00 / $4.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 30.7% | Value: 2.40x
Why Big price for a horse that knows how to run a cheeky placing; if the race gets muddled, she can sneak into it late.
3. Mohegan Ruler (No.7) — $3.60 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 30.4% | Value: 0.45x
Why Classy enough on paper, but the map and the skinny quote have me leaving him alone at the price.
Roughie: Cheryl's Shout (No.4) — $10.00 / $3.20 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 25.7% | Value: 0.93x
Why Heavy market push says somebody likes her, and if she gets the right run from the better gate she can lob into the exotics.
Race type: Open; 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Ourgirlcanrun likely forcing the issue and a few others right on the hammer
Punty read: This one looks like a proper Belmont sprint where the front half gets lit up and the backmarkers need things to fall their way. Western Ace has the drift, but the last prep form says he can fire fresh if he lands in the right lane. Split The Gee gets the good draw and should get a lovely stalking run, while Vatican Storm is the honest on-pace type but the price is short enough to make me cough. Rubens' Ceiling is the roughie with a bit of old class if the speed collapses like a folding chair.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Western Ace (No.1) — $21.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 16.6% | Place: 53.0% | Value: 4.40x
Why Finished the last prep with a pair of wins and can absolutely bob up if the speed falls into his lap.
2. Split The Gee (No.2) — $11.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 45.7% | Value: 1.90x
Why Barrier 2 is a beauty, and with the right sit he can pounce late without spending a cent early.
3. Vatican Storm (No.4) — $6.00 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 42.7% | Value: 0.96x
Why Honest on the speed and in the right part of the map, but the price has already been sucked in.
Roughie: Rubens' Ceiling (No.3) — $29.00 / $5.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 41.0% | Value: 4.40x
Why Resuming after being too far back in the Guineas, and if he comes back with the engine still there he's the one who can monster the finish.
Race type: BenchMark 66+; 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Benji's expected to roll, but Hot And High should be sitting in the right lane from the jump
Punty read: Hot And High is the horse to beat, no doubt, but the price is tight enough to make me respect her rather than worship her. Fast Harry maps handy enough to keep the engine ticking over, Nicciana has been hammered in the market and that usually doesn't happen by accident, and Shmoov Moova is the old honest grinder who can sneak a placing if the leaders overdo it. This is the kind of race where the favourite can be the right horse and still not be the right bet.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Hot And High (No.3) — $2.15 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.20
Prob 21.2% | Place: 57.4% | Value: 0.57x
Why Unbeaten, on the speed, and clearly the class runner - she's the one they all have to peg back.
2. Fast Harry (No.7) — $3.60 / $1.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 38.2% | Value: 0.55x
Why Consistent as a bulldog and maps sweet enough, but the price is too skinny to get the wallet dancing.
3. Nicciana (No.9) — $13.00 / $3.30 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Each Way ($2.50W + $2.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$4.25
Prob 11.5% | Place: 36.1% | Value: 1.86x
Why The money has been backing her hard, the form is solid, and she's got the kind of stalk-and-sprint profile that wins these metro scraps.
Roughie: Shmoov Moova (No.5) — $13.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 35.9% | Value: 1.85x
Why Honest enough to keep battling on and a sneaky place chance if the race turns into a grind.
Race type: Rest 1 Metro Win; 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with Saturday Sesh and Pure Silver likely doing the leading work while the back half tries not to get mugged
Punty read: This is one of those races where the market has been busy with Riva Aquarama and Miss Esprit, but the actual shape still says you want a horse that can travel and finish. Lanfranco gets the map to tuck in and go the round trip, Hurricane Harley has the blinkers going on and maps well enough to be dangerous, and Storm Away is the sort who needs the right tempo but can fly if the leaders overcook it. Cleanemup is the roughie if you want a bit of chaos without going full lunatic.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. Lanfranco (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 13.0% | Place: 38.7% | Value: 0.98x
Why Freshened, consistent, and drawn to get a soft run just behind the speed.
2. Storm Away (No.6) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 38.4% | Value: 0.89x
Why Needs the race to be run at a decent clip, but if the speed cooks itself he's the one swooping late.
3. Hurricane Harley (No.9) — $8.50 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Each Way ($2.25W + $2.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 11.7% | Place: 35.2% | Value: 1.25x
Why Blinkers first time and a handy on-pace map - that's the sort of gear move that can wake one up.
Roughie: Cleanemup (No.2) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 29.8% | Value: 1.20x
Why Had excuses last start and can improve with a cleaner run from the inside half of the draw.
Race type: BenchMark 66+; 1000m
Map & tempo: Hot tempo, with Lord Shiva and the speed horses ready to burn each other into the turf
Punty read: This is a proper Belmont 1000m burner - the sort of race where the first 300m feels like a 400m record attempt and the last 200m feels like a hostage situation. Xentaro gets the perfect gate-one sit, Charino can swoop if they melt each other, and Baby Pearl is the honest type who should be in the firing line if the race doesn't get too ugly. Castle Road is the roughie because the hot pace gives him a fighting chance, but you'd want the leaders to be on espresso and mistakes.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Xentaro (No.6) — $3.90 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$2.36
Prob 12.4% | Place: 37.0% | Value: 0.61x
Why Gate one in a hot 1000m is a gift from the racing gods, and he should get every possible chance.
2. Charino (No.1) — $12.00 / $3.30 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 34.9% | Value: 1.76x
Why Wide-ish draw is the drag, but the late strength is there if the speed melts and the gaps open.
3. Baby Pearl (No.13) — $11.00 / $3.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 34.0% | Value: 1.56x
Why Honest as they come and should be finishing off, but the race shape has to give her a bit of help.
Roughie: Castle Road (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.70 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 32.4% | Value: 1.27x
Why If the front half cooks itself, this bloke can be the one still standing when the whips come out.
Race type: Rest 1 Metro Win; 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Gi Gi Pops on the speed and a stack of runners needing cover
Punty read: This is the black hole race on the card - the one that eats tickets for breakfast and burps up a rough result at tea time. Snow God has the excuse from last start and is the one the model has on top, but it isn't a confidence parade by any stretch. Think Pink Daze and Californication are the value runners with a path if the race strings out, and Maalis Song has the consistency to be in the finish again. If you want a roughie path, Californication is the one who can surprise if the tempo goes nuclear.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Snow God (No.3) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — ✓ Won, net +$29.75
Prob 9.7% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 0.67x
Why Forget the last run - saddle went south and the better prior form says he can bounce straight back.
2. Think Pink Daze (No.15) — $14.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 26.4% | Value: 1.54x
Why Backmarker with a decent finish on him, and if the speed collapses he's the one who can storm home.
3. Maalis Song (No.2) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 1.05x
Why Draws to get a soft run and brings the kind of consistent form that keeps punters alive.
Roughie: Californication (No.6) — $17.00 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 22.9% | Value: 1.60x
Why The market's sniffed him up, and if the tempo turns into a war he can finish over the top.
Race type: BenchMark 60+; 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, but with enough pressure for the handy runners to have a proper say
Punty read: Rainline is the horse to beat and the one with the cleanest overall shape, but this is still a sneaky tough 1400m with a few there to make life awkward. Top Of The Pops is the roughie the model likes but the saver line is too rich to nibble at, while God Has Drifted and Flying South are the outsiders if the race gets ugly and the leaders overdo it. The key here is not getting hypnotised by the favourite's polish and forgetting this is still a proper metro final with a bit of bite.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Rainline (No.2) — $2.90 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 11.8% | Place: 34.3% | Value: 0.43x
Why Maps to get a lovely run just off the speed and has the class to make the rest chase him.
2. Top Of The Pops (No.16) — $34.00 / $6.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 28.7% | Value: 4.09x
Why Massive price, barrier won't scare him, and if the race turns into a tempo-fuelled mess he's the one flying late.
3. God Has Drifted (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 28.2% | Value: 0.54x
Why Resuming off a winning streak and better than that last start suggests, but the price is all wrong for a tote scream.
Roughie: Flying South (No.5) — $34.00 / $6.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 22.5% | Value: 3.10x
Why Needs the race to string out and the leaders to overcook it, but the finish is there if they do.
Race type: BenchMark 66+; 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with a couple of natural leaders and a bunch of midfielders looking for a comfy tow
Punty read: This is the old-fashioned 1600m grinder where the cleanest run matters more than some shiny headline number on the form guide. Sixinch Heels and Fifth Essence are the two the model has trusted to sit in the right part of the race, while Mississippi Dawn has been battered by the market but is still drifting like a bar fridge on a dock - that's enough for me to keep the wallet shut. Kisses From Kelly is the roughie if the tempo is honest and the race falls apart late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Sixinch Heels (No.12) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$156.75
Prob 10.3% | Place: 30.5% | Value: 1.29x
Why Maps midfield and gets every chance to run a strong, saving race without being jammed up.
2. Fifth Essence (No.8) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.24x
Why Handy enough in the run and has the sort of profile that can nick a placing if the race gets serious late.
3. Mississippi Dawn (No.14) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 28.2% | Value: 0.57x
Why The ability is there, but the drift says the market isn't exactly crying tears of joy.
Roughie: Kisses From Kelly (No.5) — $41.00 / $7.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 23.5% | Value: 3.95x
Why If the speed gets messy and the race turns into a late drag race, she can clatter home and blow up the exotics.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,5,7,4 / 1,2,4,3 / 3,7,9,5 / 4,6,9,2 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,1,13,4 / 3,15,2,6 / 2,16,1,5 / 12,8,14,5 (256 combos x $0.16 = $40.00) -- 16% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3 / 4 / 6 / 3 / 2 / 12 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Levati Dimezzo (Race 1, No.2) — $9.00
2 - Hot And High (Race 4, No.3)✓ Won — $2.15
3 - Xentaro (Race 6, No.6)✗ — $3.90
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Belmont's serving up a proper Good 4 cardio session today - rail +3m, no rain, mild breeze, and a card where the leaders won't get it all their own way but the swoopers still need a bit of luck and a prayer. This is the sort of meeting where the first 200m in the sprints looks like the opening scene of Mad Max: everyone wants the fence, nobody's handing out favours, and the bloke who gets buried midfield can be cooked before the straight even arrives.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Belmont Park, 1000m to 1600m card
Rail: +3m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play fair-to-forward, with handy runners getting first crack)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 14C, humidity 52%, NE breeze around 13km/h (watch for a touch of early speed pressure, not a rain-affected mess)
Early lane guess: Fence and just off the rail look fine, but you still want to be in the first wave rather than snoring at the tail
Tempo profile: The sprints are proper warzones, the 1400m and 1600m races are more tactical, and the best maps still matter more than a fancy finish sprint from the clouds
Jockeys to follow:
William Pike - keeps landing on the right horse in the right lane; when he finds cover in these metro races he turns a good run into a winning one
Holly Watson - handy on the speed horses and gets them rolling without wasting fuel
Chris Parnham - tidy enough to let the map do the work and not get stuck playing pinball
Stables to respect:
Mitchell Pateman - has a few handy runners that map to land in the right spot and give a cheeky shove
Michael Grantham - plenty of live chances across the card and the money has been sniffing around a few of them
N D Parnham - always a yard worth keeping an eye on when they place one in a race with a decent map
Punty's take:
This is a Belmont card where the map is king and the barrier draws aren't just decoration on the form guide. In the sprints, if you're not handy enough to travel and quicken, you're basically hoping for the racing gods to take a lunch break. Race 6 is a pure speed test, Race 7 is a proper mug's race, and Race 9 is the sort of 1600m scrape where the horse with the cleanest run often gets the cash while everyone else is looking for excuses.
The other thing today is the market is getting a bit cheeky. A few horses are being hammered in, but not every mover is a gift from heaven - some are just short enough to make you cough into your beer. Hot And High and Rainline deserve respect, but there are a few places where the price doesn't match the job. That's where the value lives, legends: not in backing every favourite like a labrador chasing a sausage, but in picking your spots and letting the race shape do the heavy lifting.
What it means for you:
Don't get sucked into the shiny shorties just because the market's been doing push-ups. On this deck, I want horses with either early speed, a cosy draw, or a genuine excuse to bounce back. Place bets and each-way plays are the smarter way through the chaos here, especially when the price is skinny or the race shape looks like a bar fight.
The early quaddie and quaddie are there for the sweat, not the rent money. Race 4 gives you a decent anchor, but races 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 are all capable of spitting the dummy. If you're playing the sequences, keep the first ticket tight enough to survive, and don't be afraid to let the value horses do the talking in the individual races.