Saturday, 23 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Dee Oyster and High Goal are the on-speed lads, so the front half gets first crack.
Punty read: This is the sort of 2yo race where one bad stride can cost you the whole lunch. Dee Oyster has been backed like the stable found the key under the couch, and that inside gate is gold in a small field with only two places paid. Fatal Affair is the shiny shortie everyone wants to marry, but the money says Dee Oyster is the one with the real smoke.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Dee Oyster (No.1) — $2.29 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 31.5% | Place: 61.9% | Value: 0.96x
Why Gets a soft map from barrier 2, has already won at the track, and the market shove says the stable is happy to back their judgement.
2. She's No Saint (No.3) — $7.15 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.8% | Place: 39.7% | Value: 1.74x
Why Fresh enough to fire, handles the soft, and with a decent gate she can lob into the right spot and be chiming in late.
3. Fatal Affair (No.5) — $1.92 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.5% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 0.36x
Why Hard to knock the class, but at the price you're paying for a lot of confidence and not much juice.
Roughie: Via Fontanella (No.7) — $22.50 / $5.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 4.02x
Why Wide gate and no public love, but if the race turns into a bit of a scrap and the leaders overcook it, she's the one that can charge at the end.
Race type: Open, 2100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Pacifico and Khan Hunter look the likely tempo makers, with Hezashocka tucked in behind.
Punty read: Pacifico is the market anchor, but he's carrying a bit more weight and the price already looks skinny for a horse with a few little caveats. Hezashocka is the one I want with the interference excuse behind him, and Bosch or Drop Of Something are the sort of doubles and exotics runners that keep the race honest.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Hezashocka (No.2) — $4.15 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 19.5% | Place: 42.1% | Value: 1.05x
Why The last run was better than the finishing position says, the soft track is fine, and he maps to get every possible chance stalking the speed.
2. Pacifico (No.1) — $1.73 / $1.22 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.9% | Place: 52.8% | Value: 0.44x
Why Honest as a three-dollar note and loves a trip, but he's short enough that you're basically paying rent to be involved.
3. Bosch (No.6) — $10.30 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 32.0% | Value: 2.24x
Why The form line looks ugly, but the excuses are real and this is the sort of race where a midfield grinder can sneak into the frame.
Roughie: Drop Of Something (No.4) — $10.80 / $3.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 31.8% | Value: 2.33x
Why If the tempo genuinely rolls and the leaders feel the pinch late, he can grind into the minors.
Race type: Open, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; this could turn into a sit-and-sprint, which is never the place to be throwing darts blindly.
Punty read: This is the kind of race where everyone wants to go jogging until the last 400m, then suddenly the sprint is on and half the field is on the wrong leg. Yokozuna gets the nod because he can sit handy enough and still punch late, while Bulgari is the class horse the market will gravitate to. Savvy Donna is the value type if the race gets messy, and Hasstorock is the roughie for the exotics brain trust.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Yokozuna (No.2) — $4.95 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 21.1% | Place: 44.7% | Value: 1.44x
Why The map is kind to him, the combo with the hoop and stable looks rock solid, and he's the one most likely to get the first shot at the leaders.
2. Bulgari (No.1) — $3.15 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.50
Prob 21.2% | Place: 45.0% | Value: 0.81x
Why Can win if he gets the right cart into the race, but the short quote makes him more a place-and-spice job than a must-have on the nose.
3. Savvy Donna (No.7) — $7.40 / $3.13 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 1.54x
Why One of the better swooper types in a race that might compress late if they crawl early.
Roughie: Hasstorock (No.6) — $5.90 / $2.63 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 0.94x
Why If they absolutely stop and sprint, he can run on into the money, but he's not the one you'd go hanging the coat on.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; Fortune Asia looks the likely pilot and there should be enough speed for the better finishers to get a crack.
Punty read: This is a chaos handicap in maiden clothing. The market has melted down, half the field has gone walkabout in the betting, and the only sane way to approach it is with place money and a prayer. Dare To Proisir has the right profile, Pre Nup has the short-price attention, and Miss Parker is the sort of honest mare who can keep showing up when others are blowing the froth off.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Dare To Proisir (No.1) — $6.45 / $2.50 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$24.70
Prob 12.4% | Place: 41.2% | Value: 0.84x
Why Best horse in the race on paper, the soft ground won't bother him, and Opie can have him parked in the right lane while the others get their wires crossed.
2. Pre Nup (No.15) — $4.10 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 9.1% | Place: 31.7% | Value: 0.78x
Why The gate looks ugly, but the race has enough tempo for him to find a cart into it, and the market's respect is obvious.
3. Miss Parker (No.7) — $6.45 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Prob 10.6% | Place: 36.0% | Value: 0.85x
Why Fresh run, genuine excuse last start, and she's the sort that can cling on for a place when the race turns into a wrestling match.
Roughie: Long Island (No.12) — $10.20 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 36.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why Backmarker with a bit of shove late; if the leaders get into each other's pockets, he can be the one flashing home.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 2100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; a sensible run should suit the stronger stayers and not leave it a pure dash home.
Punty read: This is a race where the punters who love a yarn will get seduced by the market horse, but the data keeps pointing to Fantastic Ideas as the cleaner each-way play. Cosmic Pursuit and Gate Crashers are solid enough to keep the exotics honest, while Cyber Patch is the roughie you tuck away if you want a blowout in the wider bets.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Fantastic Ideas (No.11) — $6.80 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 11.5% | Place: 34.7% | Value: 1.14x
Why Handy enough to sit in the first wave, and the soft ground plus a genuinely run 2100m gives him every chance to finish over the top.
2. Cosmic Pursuit (No.2) — $7.05 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 30.5% | Value: 0.98x
Why Honest and in the mix, but the map and price don't scream to dive in again.
3. Gate Crashers (No.1) — $7.05 / $2.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 27.4% | Value: 0.83x
Why Inside draw helps, but he needs a kinder shape than the numbers are currently offering.
Roughie: Cyber Patch (No.9) — $20.50 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 2.29x
Why If the race gets truly testing and the tempo is honest, he can rattle into the frame at a juicy price.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; there's not a lot of early burn, so position and patience are everything.
Punty read: Lupo Solitario is the horse you can build a case around because he maps beautifully for a slow-run mile and comes in with the right soft-track credentials. Bourbon Empress and Rudyard are both in the mix, but the price bands make them more supporting actors than the lead. Diamond Jak is the roughie with the silly numbers if the race gets strange.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Lupo Solitario (No.2) — $3.35 / $1.50 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.00
Prob 16.2% | Place: 44.6% | Value: 0.68x
Why Maps to do no work, loves the soft, and gets the kind of run where a mile specialist can pinch the race at the right time.
2. Bourbon Empress (No.4) — $7.30 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.26x
Why Honest enough, but the saver price is a bit awkward and the race shape doesn't hand her a velvet carpet.
3. Rudyard (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 1.37x
Why Can run on if they overdo it, but he's more of a threat to the exotics than a clean betting proposition.
Roughie: Diamond Jak (No.1) — $32.50 / $6.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 22.9% | Value: 4.01x
Why Massive price and a decent enough profile if the race becomes messy, but you're betting on the wheels falling off a few others.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; Daring Pursuit and the on-speed types should give it a proper crack.
Punty read: This is the race where the market wants to make Sweet Smile the story, but the map says Daring Pursuit is the one with the right sort of go-forward energy. Trouble is, the model also says the roughie guard is on, so the straight bet stays in the pocket and the fun is left for the multis and exotics. Rocking and Chante Moi are the lurkers if the tempo gets spicy.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Daring Pursuit (No.5) — $9.80 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 14.7% | Place: 41.5% | Value: 2.50x
Why He maps perfectly for a stalking run and can absolutely win if he gets the right tow into the straight.
2. Sweet Smile (No.1) — $3.35 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 42.0% | Value: 0.63x
Why The form is strong and the inside gate helps, but the price is too skinny for a saver line.
3. Rocking (No.9) — $6.80 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 30.4% | Value: 1.01x
Why Not hopeless at all, just not enough of a free square to shove chips in.
Roughie: Chante Moi (No.10) — $9.30 / $3.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 1.15x
Why If the pace gets honest and they start peeling off late, he can finish over the top and blow up the frame.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; this looks like a genuine old-school Saturday scramble.
Punty read: This is a proper open-air raffle. Blesstas and Mo Charaid have the right sort of profile, Imperial Empress is the type to keep you honest, and Jurisprudence is the outsider you'd include if you're trying to knock over the exotics. Straight betting here is like punching a brick wall and expecting a handshake.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Blesstas (No.9) — $9.05 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 11.8% | Place: 39.5% | Value: 1.75x
Why Handy map, big trainer vibe, and the soft track gives him every chance to roll forward without burning too much petrol.
2. Imperial Empress (No.7) — $9.30 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 1.39x
Why Honest enough, but the price is too chunky for the saver band and the race shape screams chaos rather than certainty.
3. Mo Charaid (No.3) — $11.40 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 29.8% | Value: 1.56x
Why Can be right in the finish if the race opens up, but this isn't a spot to pretend he's a lock.
Roughie: Jurisprudence (No.2) — $14.25 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 27.0% | Value: 1.79x
Why Gets a decent map and can absolutely run into the minors if the tempo gets uneven, but this is still a no-wallet zone.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,3,5 / 2,1,6 / 2,1,7 / 1,15,7,12,3 (135 combos x $0.27 = $36.00) -- 27% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 11,2,1,9 / 2,4,10,1 / 5,1,9,10 / 9,7,3,2 (256 combos x $0.14 = $36.00) -- 14% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 2 / 1 / 11 / 2 / 5 / 9 (1 combos x $48.00 = $48.00) -- 4800% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Dee Oyster (Race 1, No.1)✗ — $2.29
2 - Hezashocka (Race 2, No.2) — $4.15
3 - Yokozuna (Race 3, No.2) — $4.95
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ellerslie is serving up a Soft 5 with the rail out 3m and a bit of juice in the ground - not a bog, not a skating rink, just a proper punter's track where position matters and the smart ones get their chance before the late swoopers come roaring home like the cavalry in a war movie.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ellerslie, 1100m-2100m card
Rail: Out 3m
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair-to-on-pace)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 8°C, humid, light wind, a touch of rain around (watch for a slightly holding surface)
Early lane guess: Handy and midfield lanes should be the sweet spot; the fence won't be poison, but don't expect miracles from the tail.
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - a couple of leaders in the sprints, a fair few grinders later, and the real chaos lives in the maidens and the late handicaps.
Jockeys to follow:
Masahiro Hashizume - on Dee Oyster and Pre Nup, and he's got live rides where the money's already spoken.
Samantha Collett - keeps landing in the right spot on handy runners and can save ground when it counts.
Opie Bosson - when he's on a live one like Dare To Proisir, the rest of the jocks start sweating.
Stables to respect:
R James & R Wellwood (3 runners) - Hezashocka, Bosch and Pre Nup give them a proper say across the card.
Andrew Forsman (3 runners) - always dangerous in open middle-distance and benchmark races.
Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson (2 runners) - Dare To Proisir and El Viento keep them right in the mix.
Punty's take:
This meeting starts with a couple of nice clean narratives, then goes full Mad Max once you hit the maidens and the back half of the programme. Dee Oyster and Hezashocka have both been crunched in the market, which usually means someone nearby has had a serious sniff, and I'm not fighting that early smoke.
The thing with Ellerslie on Soft 5 and the rail out a touch is that you don't want to be sleeping in the car park. Handy runners with a bit of class get every chance, and if the tempo sours, the swoopers can still have their say. Race 4 is a clown car, Race 7 is a pub brawl, and Race 8 is the sort of race that makes sensible people drink. That's where the exotics live, not where you go searching for a straight-out hero lap.
What it means for you:
Use the early races to get the day moving, then protect yourself when the card turns feral. The spine is pretty clear: Dee Oyster, Hezashocka and Yokozuna are the three the day leans on, and the multi is the cleanest way to have a proper crack without getting dragged into the swamp.
For the trickier stuff, be the adult in the room. Fantastic Ideas is the best each-way shape in the middle of the card, Lupo Solitario is the sort of grinder you can lean on for the place, and the late races - especially 4, 7 and 8 - are more about staying alive than trying to smash the tote like you're Tony Montana with a form guide.