Saturday, 23 May 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so the leaders won't be killing themselves early, but the tailwind gives the late runners a proper sniff.
Punty read: This looks like a nice little early trap for the mug punter because the obvious ones are all trying to look too obvious. Uncertain Glory is the horse the model likes best, and the map says he'll be launching late while the others are trying to stop. Friendly Fire has the inside draw and a handy profile, while Keen To Exceed is the one the market has found but I'm not keen to go in over my boots when the place numbers don't quite sing. If the speed is soft, the backmarkers get their chance to do a Nick Cave entrance out of the gloom.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Uncertain Glory (No.7) — $4.15 / $1.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$12.60
Prob 23.9% | Place: 65.6% | Value: 1.31x
Why Honest, progressive, and maps to be flying late when the race gets serious. Soft ground and a true rail suit a horse that can absorb pressure and still hit the line.
2. Friendly Fire (No.2) — $5.85 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$10.00
Prob 14.8% | Place: 47.1% | Value: 1.09x
Why Ran well from the back last time and looks the sort that can lob into the finish again if the speed doesn't get silly.
3. Keen To Exceed (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 51.0% | Value: 0.70x
Why Talented enough, but the market's already grabbed the good stuff and the place line isn't juicy enough to get excited about.
Roughie: First Act (No.8) — $30.50 / $5.00 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 20.4% | Value: 2.46x
Why If the race collapses and the swoopers are flying home, this is the sort of blowout runner that can shove its nose into the minors.
Race type: BM72 HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Forecaster in front and a few others keen enough to keep it honest.
Punty read: This is a proper open one, not a race to be a hero in. Ascot Green has the roughie appeal, Congressman is the value-ish type in the finish, and Flying Embers has the right sort of credentials but the market's already trimmed him up to the point where you're paying for the brochure, not the horse. Perfect Justice being crunched tells you somebody likes the setup, but this is still a race where one bad step and your ticket's in the bin. Think less Top Gun, more Mad Max: everyone looks fast until the dust settles.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Ascot Green (No.17) — $24.25 / $7.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 7.9% | Place: 24.5% | Value: 2.98x
Why Big price, but the map says it can land in the right part of the race if the tempo gives the back half its chance.
2. Congressman (No.14) — $10.40 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 1.27x
Why Solid enough type and can be thereabouts if the race gets strung out late.
3. Flying Embers (No.1) — $4.40 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 34.4% | Value: 0.54x
Why Honest enough, but the price is doing the heavy lifting and there's not enough edge in the place game.
Roughie: Penpel (No.15) — $12.25 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 24.2% | Value: 1.28x
Why If the race gets messy and the tempo drags them into a late scrap, this is the sort that can clunk into the exotics.
Race type: C3 HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Stormbringer likely to roll forward, and a few others close enough to keep him honest.
Punty read: This is a Highway race wearing a fake moustache, messy, competitive, and full of blokes trying to tell you they've got the winner. Exit Fee and Wayburn are right in the firing line if the speed map does what it says, but Cambar is the one the model's landed on as the value play. Neeson is the roughie you'd want for the back end of the exotics if the leaders go too hard. The key here is not getting blinded by the first thing you see; these sprints can turn into a proper case of who gets the cleanest crack.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Cambar (No.5) — $13.75 / $4.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 11.4% | Place: 33.2% | Value: 2.38x
Why Has the form line to bounce back if the race shape gives the late runners a chance to savage the leaders.
2. Exit Fee (No.1) — $4.15 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 32.6% | Value: 0.40x
Why Maps to get every chance if the genuine pace materialises, and the straight should give it room to build late.
3. Wayburn (No.9) — $5.10 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 26.9% | Value: 0.47x
Why Good enough horse in the right type of race, but the price doesn't leave much room for error.
Roughie: Neeson (No.7) — $10.40 / $3.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 21.8% | Value: 0.95x
Why If the speed cracks and the back end comes into play, this is the sort that can sneak into the finish at a sneaky price.
Race type: BM78 HANDICAP, 2400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, and with a trip like this the ones with stamina and the right run are the ones that stay alive.
Punty read: This is where the meeting gets a bit more cerebral. Thebudgiesmugla looks the class anchor, Unavoidable is the nice roughie with a real path through the race, and Saint Emilion is the one the market has absolutely sent for. Casual Connection is the honest old grinder who keeps bobbing up in staying races, but the trick here is not to get sucked into the glamour of the short quote if the wet ground starts turning it into a proper slog. At 2400m on Soft 7, it's more Lord of the Rings than sprint clip, you need stamina, patience, and a bit of luck.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Thebudgiesmugla (No.5) — $3.17 / $1.32 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.68
Prob 22.1% | Place: 61.6% | Value: 0.76x
Why The map is kind, the stable has him humming, and this is the sort of staying race where position and timing matter more than nonsense.
2. Saint Emilion (No.9) — $9.70 / $2.60 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 46.9% | Value: 1.96x
Why Strong staying profile and plenty of ability, but the bet type keeps us disciplined.
3. Unavoidable (No.8) — $16.75 / $3.70 🏆 6TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 10.7% | Place: 35.4% | Value: 2.49x
Why The run last time had excuses and the weight turn helps; if the race turns into a grinder, this bloke can storm into it late.
Roughie: Casual Connection (No.2) — $9.20 / $2.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 37.6% | Value: 1.36x
Why Honest type that can keep rolling if the leaders overcook it and the race gets stretched.
Race type: BM72 HANDICAP, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, which usually means the map matters more than the stopwatch early on.
Punty read: This one has the look of a race where the first 1200m could be so relaxed you'd think they were out for a Sunday trot. That makes Sunsprite very interesting if the market move means anything, while Cosmic Avenger and Boomeroo are the types who can land in the right lane and finish over the top. Agent Zero is the honest horse who might get pinged by the setup, and Sheeza Diva is the roughie for the mad scientists. When the pace is soft and the straight is getting a push from behind, the horse that can quicken once and keep going is gold.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Sunsprite (No.13) — $4.55 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$0.53
Prob 16.0% | Place: 46.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why The money says the stable is on, and the setup looks clean enough for this one to get every chance from the back half of the race.
2. Cosmic Avenger (No.1) — $10.40 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 36.4% | Value: 1.80x
Why Good horse in the right sort of race, but we keep the firepowder for the ones with a clearer return profile.
3. Agent Zero (No.4) — $6.95 / $2.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 36.5% | Value: 1.08x
Why Capable, but the price says you're being asked to pay for the jersey and the postcode.
Roughie: Boomeroo (No.3) — $10.30 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 31.1% | Value: 1.42x
Why If the race shape gets messy and the class horse gets to bully them, this one is right in the mix.
Race type: BM78 HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Sister Shay likely to roll and a few others happy to sit close enough.
Punty read: This is one of the spicy ones. Scintilla is the model's top play but the race is open enough to make you sweat through the shirt. Husk is the improver with the winkers on and a stack of upside if he finds the second-up kick. Declichy Boulevard is in the right race but needs the right crack at it, and Pier Pressure is the roughie with the kind of old-school "if everything goes right" profile that punters love and bookies hate. In these 1400m soft Randwick races, the danger isn't always the leader, sometimes it's the horse that gets one clean peel and suddenly everyone's looking at the replay like they've missed the obvious.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Scintilla (No.10) — $12.00 / $3.90 🏆 14TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 9.9% | Place: 29.7% | Value: 1.70x
Why Honest enough and the race shape gives it a shot, but the price keeps us from getting too frisky.
2. Husk (No.3) — $15.75 / $4.80 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 25.0% | Value: 1.87x
Why The gear change says they mean business, and if he improves second-up he's right in the race.
3. Declichy Boulevard (No.1) — $12.25 / $3.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 24.5% | Value: 1.32x
Why Better than the bare form suggests, but not enough to force the issue.
Roughie: Pier Pressure (No.2) — $39.00 / $8.00 🏆 13TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 20.6% | Value: 4.10x
Why Absolute chaos horse if the map falls apart and the race turns into a late shove-and-grunt affair.
Race type: BM88 HANDICAP, 2000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, and with I Am The Empire stretching the field, the front end won't get a picnic.
Punty read: This is the race where you can actually smell the pressure. Rotagilla is the one I want on the map and in the finish, Brave Call is the roughie with the right form to blow the race up, and Starzintheireyes is the short one that looks a touch skinny given the race shape. Tazima and Placid Pearl can run into it if the leaders go a touch too hard, but the cleanest story is the horse on the inside who can stalk and strike. That's the sort of setup that makes punters feel clever for about 90 seconds before the photo turns into a heartbreak meme.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Rotagilla (No.3) — $6.55 / $2.20 🏆 7TH
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 13.6% | Place: 40.1% | Value: 1.10x
Why Has the right mix of class, map, and wet form to get the perfect run and keep finding under pressure.
2. Brave Call (No.9) — $20.00 / $4.40 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 31.6% | Value: 2.95x
Why If the speed battle gets out of hand, this is the one that can swoop over the top and ruin everyone's afternoon.
3. Starzintheireyes (No.7) — $4.65 / $1.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 39.5% | Value: 0.66x
Why Genuine enough horse, but the price doesn't leave much room to play with.
Roughie: Les Vampires (No.1) — $46.50 / $7.00 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 4.47x
Why If the race gets strung out and the leaders overdo it, this old fella can clunk into the frame.
Race type: BM94 HANDICAP, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with a couple of horses likely to control the first half before the pressure builds.
Punty read: This is one of those races where the market can look sensible and still be wrong. Asgarda is the top-rated horse but it's in roughie territory price-wise, Konasana is the one with the upside if it rediscover's the good stuff, and The Three Hundred is the sort of honest piece of kit that can run a big race without necessarily looking like a superstar. Mighty Ulysses is the classy lightweight that might be better than the price says, and Spione is the obvious favourite but not one I'm dying to get rich off. With a moderate pace and a soft surface, the horse that settles into a rhythm and keeps building is usually the one that finishes the job.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Asgarda (No.12) — $14.00 / $4.50 🏆 5TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 8.0% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.57x
Why A live one if the tempo doesn't get too muddled and the race opens up late.
2. The Three Hundred (No.8) — $9.70 / $3.30 🏆 18TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 24.3% | Value: 1.03x
Why Honest, strong and can keep grinding if the race becomes a sustained sprint.
3. Konasana (No.2) — $28.00 / $7.00 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 20.5% | Value: 2.89x
Why Not the one for blind confidence, but if she's found her old spark she'll be dangerous at the finish.
Roughie: Mighty Ulysses (No.1) — $22.75 / $6.00 🏆 16TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 19.4% | Value: 2.11x
Why Lightly weighted and capable of running a cheeky race if he gets the right tow into it.
Race type: BM78 HANDICAP, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, which means the barrier and the first 200m matter a hell of a lot.
Punty read: This is the kind of race where the TV producer should just save us all the drama and play a drumroll. Winning Proposal is the model's top number but the market's been all over it, Snack Bar is the one the stable has a handle on, and Amazing Eagle has the right kind of gear stack to wake it up fresh. Silver Wedding is the solid old timer, while Prima Bella is the one I'd keep on the radar if the speed gets hot and the inside holds. At 1000m, you don't get time to be philosophical, if you miss the jump, you're basically asking to be a spectator.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Winning Proposal (No.4) — $11.25 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 13.0% | Place: 42.3% | Value: 2.15x
Why Freshen-up profile and the right sort of race shape, but we're keeping the money where the cleaner edges are.
2. Snack Bar (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 50.0% | Value: 0.60x
Why Honest as the day is long and gets every chance to land right on the speed and fight the line.
3. Amazing Eagle (No.2) — $3.85 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 47.7% | Value: 0.66x
Why The fresh gear combo is interesting, but the price has sucked the fun out of it.
Roughie: Massira (No.14) — $9.35 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 27.5% | Value: 0.92x
Why If the speed goes too hard and the finish becomes a sit-and-sprint, this one can sneak into the frame.
Race type: BM78 HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Stay Focused and Mafia trying to make the race unfold on their terms.
Punty read: Right, here's your gotcha race at the end, the sort that turns a good day into a rave or a funeral. Stay Focused is the one the model lands on but the drift says the market isn't in love, Sergeant Major looks better than the bare numbers if the new bit sharpens him up, and Comedy is the sneaky one with a proper path if the leaders are cooked. Green Shadows is the roughie with the sort of backstory punters love: form up, price up, and maybe one more chance if the race shape cracks in his favour. This is the kind of leg that decides whether your quaddie is a bonus or a lesson.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Stay Focused (No.2) — $16.25 / $4.80 SCR
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net +$0.00
Prob 9.3% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 2.27x
Why The map is against the obvious leaders and if he gets the tempo he wants, he can absolutely make a liar out of the drift.
2. Sergeant Major (No.3) — $11.25 / $3.70 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 26.3% | Value: 1.36x
Why The gear change is the sort of little tweak that can wake a horse up, and this race isn't beyond him at all.
3. Comedy (No.15) — $24.00 / $6.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 2.67x
Why Backmarker with a bit of upside if the speed cooks the front end and the straight becomes a late swarming act.
Roughie: Green Shadows (No.1) — $21.25 / $5.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 22.8% | Value: 2.36x
Why If the pressure comes on early and the fence isn't a graveyard, this is the one that can surprise at a nice price.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 5,1,9,7 / 5,9,8,2 / 13,1,4,3 / 10,3,1,2 (256 combos x $0.27 = $69.00) -- 27% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3,9,7,1 / 12,8,2,1 / 4,3,2,14 / 2,3,15,1 (256 combos x $0.20 = $50.00) -- 20% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 13 / 10 / 3 / 12 / 4 / 2 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Thebudgiesmugla (Race 4, No.5)✓ Won — $3.17
2 - Sunsprite (Race 5, No.13)✗ — $4.55
3 - Rotagilla (Race 7, No.3)✗ — $6.55
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Randwick's cooked up a proper Soft 7 with showers hanging around like that bloke who won't leave the barbecue until the snags are gone. Rail's true, there's a bit of tailwind up the straight, and that usually means the last 300m turns into a proper drag race rather than a front-running parade. Not a full-on mud bath, but soft enough that the horses with wet legs and a bit of late zing can make their own luck.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Randwick, 1000m-2400m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play fair-to-off speed late, with swoopers getting a nice tow home)
Weather: Showers, 17°C, humidity 79%, wind 14km/h S (watch for rain bursts and a tailwind helping late closers)
Early lane guess: Middle lanes and off-rail swoopers look the sweet spot if the showers keep nibbling away
Tempo profile: A mixed bag, a few crawls, a few genuine burns, and enough chaos to keep the bagmen in business
Jockeys to follow:
Nash Rawiller, the bloke can turn a decent map into a robbery, and he's got plenty of live rides.
Tyler Schiller, keeps popping up on the right sort of horses and gives them every chance.
Dylan Gibbons, riding with a bit of confidence today, especially on horses that can stalk and pounce.
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (lots of runners), always dangerous when the markets start sniffing around, and he's got multiple chances across the card.
Annabel & Rob Archibald (multiple runners), a heap of live ones, especially when the wet ground starts to matter.
Matthew Smith (multiple runners), a sneaky one with a few that can land in the right part of the race.
Punty's take: This is one of those Randwick days where the form guide starts to look like a polite suggestion rather than a rulebook. Soft ground, true rail, a touch of tailwind straightening up, that's the recipe for late pressure and a few heart-in-mouth finishes. The horses that can handle the sting out of the ground and sustain a long run are the ones you want in your corner, not the flashy little speedballs that look like Usain Bolt for 300m and then vanish like your mate's payday.
The market's already having a good hard look at a few of them. Some are being smacked in, some are blowing like a busted tyre, and that's exactly the sort of card where you don't want to be married to one shiny favourite because the race map looks nice in a vacuum. Randwick on Soft 7 can punish the lazy punter, if you don't respect the wet form, the tempo, and where the horse lands, you'll get mugged by a $10 sneaky bastard with the right run.
What it means for you: I'm leaning on horses that can settle, breathe, and then keep building when the pressure goes on. In these conditions, the winners are often the ones that keep finding, not the ones that lead the dance and burn out like a phone battery on 2%. A few races are proper knife fights, so the plan is simple: trust the stronger map setups, be cute with place plays where the odds are stingy, and don't try to turn every race into a hero bet.
If you're playing the sequences, keep your eyes open but your wallet on a short leash. There are enough open legs to make the quaddie feel like a pub raffle, so the smart play is to let the clearer races do the heavy lifting and treat the wild ones as coverage, not confidence. Today's not the day to get all romance-novel about the big multi. It's a day for structure, patience, and nicking value where the market's gone a bit soft in the head.