Sunday, 28 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with leaders engaged early; mid-pack can't afford to be stuck in the mud
Punty read: This looks like one of those maidens where the "front by instinct" runners set the script, but Soft 7 means the finish can get sticky and tactical. Maureen's Angel and Unwanted News both have that "I'll be there when it matters" energy, while Cape Churchill is the outside threat if the leaders wobble a touch. If the track keeps saving ground for inside runners, you'll see the front do more work than usual.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; best closer to the action tends to get the last word on Soft 7
Punty read: This is a "don't get cute" maiden. Eightyseven Lad looks like the one built for this type of race, on-pace, right in the pocket, and hard to push out when the track is holding onto every metre. Around that, Legs Godt and Maurice's Princess are the stalking danger, while Lets Take A Chance is the roughie-style swooper if the speed drops away.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so positioning and patience win, not panic
Punty read: Western Miss is built for this kind of race. When the speed is slow, horses that can keep their momentum and then quicken late become real villains for those trying to "sprint early" and burn. Adroit and Suparoo are the ones that can pop into the fight if the winner has to work for it, Cameroon's a market/value storyline, but the backbone here is the favourite profile.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Western Miss (No.9) — $1.25 / $1.05 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$3.90
Prob 41.4% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.87x
Why In a slow tempo, she's the one who can control the race without needing a miracle, then hits the line with less drama.
2. Adroit (No.2) — $10.30 / $2.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.94x
Why A real chance — but at $2.45 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Suparoo (No.4) — $11.50 / $2.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.56x
Why Value's sexy on win-based logic, but place confidence isn't enough to pay for the risk.
Roughie: Mercury Rising (No.3) — $17.50 / $3.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.75x
Why She's got a "late lift" path if the race turns into a sprint for home, but you're not funding that story first.
Race type: MAIDEN, 2013m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, staying power and positioning over long stretches
Punty read: Long trip, slow tempo, and the soft ground means you can't just rely on one burst. Star Assault and Lucifer's Lady look like they've got the "place if not win" profile, Yankee Ace is the value chess piece if she finds the right moment. Rockin' Robin is the outsider that can grab a spot if the race shape lines up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Star Assault (No.10) — $2.87 / $1.37 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $8.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 16.3% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.80x
Why Backmarker-to-finish type can love slow pace, this distance gives her time to unwind and hit the line late.
2. Lucifer's Lady (No.11) — $3.90 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.60
Prob 14.4% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.54x
Why She's priced like a chance but runs like she wants to pick off the tiring field, Soft 7 at 2kms is her playground.
3. Yankee Ace (No.2) — $7.75 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Prob 11.7% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.56x
Why That value on place is the hook, if the race is slow enough and she gets cover, she's there when it tightens.
Roughie: Rockin' Robin (No.3) — $15.75 / $4.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.68x
Why Could run a cheeky race for the minor money, but her place profile is too underwhelming versus others.
Race type: HANDICAP (C1), 1685m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace; this is a "don't get shuffled" mid-distance test
Punty read: The handicaps at Bunbury are often won by who gets the best trip, not who has the flashiest name. Bob The Baker looks like the one that can sit in the right zone and then keep going, while Take A Leaf and Bella Violetta are the two that could easily slot into the finish with that right run. Tokyo Fire is interesting but the plan today is to trust the stronger profile.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Bob The Baker (No.3) — $3.25 / $1.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 23.7% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.99x
Why He's got the form build that fits this distance, if he gets a clean run, it's hard to ignore.
2. Take A Leaf (No.6) — $4.05 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.85
Prob 16.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why She's one of those "place is the safer mission", gets a run, doesn't need to win, just needs to keep trucking.
3. Bella Violetta (No.8) — $4.80 / $1.75 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.05x
Why The race might suit her, but the model says place confidence isn't high enough to back.
Roughie: Ah Kum (No.2) — $21.75 / $4.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.7% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.16x
Why Needs the race to unfold perfectly, if the leaders fold, she's the sort that sneaks into the frame late.
Race type: HANDICAP, 2013m
Map & tempo: Slow pace; this becomes a "when do you hit the switch?" job
Punty read: Shaula is the one I'm pegging as the most likely to control the outcome, she's not forced to be too far back and can hit the real sprint section when the others are still finding their rhythm. Sweet Surrender and Stylax are the two danger lanes: if the race is tight early and they're still travelling with cover turning for home, they'll both make it expensive.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Shaula (No.2) — $3.80 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — Cashed, net -$1.90
Prob 13.1% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.66x
Why She can position mid-pack without getting stuck, and long trips reward horses that can balance speed with stamina.
2. Sweet Surrender (No.1) — $4.70 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.89x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Stylax (No.8) — $6.20 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 13.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.04x
Why Place odds are attractive if she can tag the right part of the field and hit the lane running.
Roughie: Best Of The Gods (No.5) — $9.40 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why She's a value story, but the cleanest place chances are with the top three in this race shape.
Race type: HANDICAP, 2013m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so you want a horse that can stay within reach and sprint late
Punty read: This is where Bunbury starts acting like a tipping contest: multiple on-pace types, multiple chances to grab the right spot, and the Soft 7 makes it easier for a leader to hang on, or a stalker to swoop. Maxwhooshtapin and Final Call look like they've got that forward momentum, while Pincer Movement is the "may not win, but will keep showing up" type.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Maxwhooshtapin (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 14.0% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.79x
Why He's the sort to get rolling early, sit close, and take advantage if the pace doesn't collapse.
2. Pincer Movement (No.6) — $3.35 / $1.57 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.73x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Final Call (No.4) — $8.70 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 9.2% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why Value place bet, if he's closer than last time, he's a threat in the final straight.
Roughie: Impressive Jewel (No.2) — $11.00 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.32x
Why Needs the right sort of run, but he's got enough profile to land in the trifecta chaos if the race breaks.
Race type: Open, 2213m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, staying types get a massive advantage in Soft 7 when the sprint comes late
Punty read: This is the Cup-style puzzle: the slow tempo lets those with stamina steam in the last third. Diamond Scene is the value anchor because when the race is going to be messy late, she's built to capitalise. Opportunistic and Hoba West are the two that can keep grinding through the pack and grab places if the field strings out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.50 pool)
1. Diamond Scene (No.3) — $4.75 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — Cashed, net +$0.00
Prob 13.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.96x
Why She's the one who can handle the slow build and then explode late, Soft 7 at 2.2kms is perfect for that.
2. Opportunistic (No.5) — $3.90 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.82x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Hoba West (No.7) — $4.30 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 11.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.61x
Why Place value on a staying track, if it's slow and spread-out, she can fill in gaps late.
Roughie: In Good Order (No.1) — $10.30 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.25x
Why She can absolutely run top-3 if the pace doesn't bite too hard, but today, we stick to the top trio spine.
Race type: HANDICAP (C5), 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace; 1200m means the fight starts earlier than you think
Punty read: Short sprint handicap on Soft 7, so it's about getting a position that doesn't get swallowed by the bog. Spank Appeal and My Hidden Universe are the types to benefit from the right run, while Jelly Can Run looks like the safest "will be there" in the finish. En Plein Air is the place lane value if she's not stuck too deep.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Jelly Can Run (No.5) — $4.10 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 10.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.58x
Why She's the "get a good trip and keep running" type, Soft 1200 suits those who don't need a perfect sprint timing.
2. Spank Appeal (No.7) — $7.70 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.48x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. En Plein Air (No.8) — $7.70 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$22.75
Prob 10.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.19x
Why Place is the mission, she can grind through late if the speed holds just long enough.
Roughie: My Hidden Universe (No.1) — $10.10 / $3.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.27x
Why Value roughie path is there if the right runner tires, just not the one we're funding with extra stake.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,6,8,3 / 9,2,4 / 10,11,2,7 / 3,8,6 (144 combos x $0.24 = $35.00) -- 24% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,8,2,5 / 6,1,4,2 / 3,5,7,1 / 7,8,5,1 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10 / 3 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 5 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Western Miss (Race 3, No.9)✓ Won — $1.25
2 - Bob The Baker (Race 5, No.3) — $3.25
3 - Shaula (Race 6, No.2)✗ — $3.80
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Bunbury's on a Soft 7 with rain hanging around like it's got unfinished business, so strap in, today's about getting position early and not getting stitched up by a wet-track surprise.
1) MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 7, 1200-2213m card
Rail: +2m Entire
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play wet-speed with plenty of running lanes)
Weather: Showers, 12°C, humidity 97% (watch for Rain risk 65%+, especially around the later windows)
Early lane guess: speed on, and the inside should be lively with that +2m rail
Tempo profile: Most of the day's races look like either genuine speed or slow-and-surgical, so you'll see horses either getting rolling early or sprinting late like they just remembered they've got things to do.
Jockeys to follow:
William Pike, often nails the forward runs and doesn't panic when the race gets weird
Shaun O'Donnell, keeps finding chances for his mounts when the gaps appear
Austin Galati, good at steering through traffic; handy on the days where you need judgement
Stables to respect:
Misty Bazeley (0 runners), (N/A today, don't go chasing ghosts)
Michael Grantham (3 runners), consistent with his $-value types and tends to have them ready under pressure
Luke Fernie (1 runner), when he's on a wet deck, his horses often make the most of it
Punty's take:
This is one of those Bunbury meetings where the track's doing the talking. Soft 7 means momentum's king, if you're too far back with nowhere to go, you're basically watching the race on TV while your horse goes the long way around. And with showers drifting in and out, the leaders can look a bit "too good", then the backmarkers start whispering sweet nothings at them once the footing deepens.
I'm building today off a simple spine: get behind the top probability horses in the big races, and then in the danger races, use the "place and protect" mindset. The day's got a few proper coin-flip maidens and handicaps, and when Bunbury turns into chaos mode, you want your ticket anchored in runners that map to be there, not just hope they're there. Like in a heist movie, if the crew doesn't have the exits covered, someone's gonna get left in the stairwell.
And look, there's money coming and going all day. Market support is showing up behind the likes of Race 2 No.1 and Race 8 contenders, which tells me the smart punters are also trying to crack the wet-track puzzle. But the trick isn't just backing favourites, it's backing favourites that have the race-shape to win, not just the price to lose.
What it means for you:
Your best bet strategy today is aggression where the map supports it (leaders/stalkers with clear momentum) and restraint where the race is slow and congested. In the early maidens (short trips), you want horses that can find a spot quickly and not get checked, because Soft 7 punishes being boxed in.
For the quaddie/big-6 lanes: think "skinny/balanced/wide" as your level of commitment to chaos. The early legs look more manageable, then the later races go open-bunch like a nightclub queue on payday. So if you're playing sequences, keep the wider coverage for when there's at least one or two clear runners who can drag the whole thing over the line.
3) PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI
These are the three bets the day leans on.
1 - Western Miss (Race 3, No.9), $1.25
Why She's the "get on, don't overthink it" type, maps to sit midfield and keeps picking up in Soft conditions.
2 - Bob The Baker (Race 5, No.3), $3.25
Why Proven in the grade step-up way, form profile screams "likely there again", and the race shape suits.
3 - Shaula (Race 6, No.2), $3.80
Why The handbrake doesn't get pulled today, she's got enough race pace to make her own luck.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~15.45 = ~$154.50 collect
4) RACE-BY-RACE