Friday, 04 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: HANDICAP, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, backmarkers can be dangerous if they're still within striking range late
Punty read: Feazabeel is the "park the car, walk to the pub" type of favourite. On a Soft 7 with a slow tempo, the horse who can travel and keep finding is king, and he's built for that. Give Me Joy has that sneaky ability to slot in and run on, and Think I Do is the one who can keep grinding forward if the race stays rough around the edges. Miss Stalwart is your roughie, with excuses that actually matter, and Canberra soft tracks can reward a horse who just had a bad trip.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Feazabeel (No.4) — $2.15 / $1.09 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$16.03
Prob 37.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why Maps to handle the slow tempo, and Soft 7 is where his best traits show up, class does the rest.
2. Give Me Joy (No.8) — $3.80 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 18.0% | Place: 64.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why Likely to get a better run than her odds suggest, and if the race bunches up late she's there.
3. Think I Do (No.3) — $7.20 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 40.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why He can hit the line, but this is still a race where the favourites keep first crack at it.
Roughie: Miss Stalwart (No.5) — $11.50 / $2.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.45x
Why That excuse stack is real, if she gets clear galloping room late she can surprise.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, expect the leaders to work hard and the finish to get spicy
Punty read: This is a sprint where the first 400m feels like a boxing round. Into The Fire looks set to be up on the speed and take control, Taluk's the value-on-the-map type, and Hello Jack is the sneaky one because she's got the running style to keep landing in the finish. Prophet Time is the roughie, he's not a write-off and he can sneak into the picture if the race splits at the right time.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Taluk (No.8) — $6.20 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 15.9% | Place: 50.6% | Value: 1.24x
Why She's built for a sprint tempo like this, if the leaders burn, she's the one who can run through the gaps.
2. Into The Fire (No.6) — $6.75 / $2.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 51.7% | Value: 1.35x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Hello Jack (No.2) — $6.45 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 39.1% | Value: 1.12x
Why She's got a real chance to be prominent, but this is still a race where 1000m luck decides the rest.
Roughie: Prophet Time (No.4) — $9.40 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.99x
Why If he recovers from that bumped run and the pace turns into a sprint race, he can roll late.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so positioning matters, but a quick burst can still win it
Punty read: Defiance is the class act of the group at this price for a reason. Sweet Harry is the obvious threat, Groundcover is your place and exacta chaos helper, and Stormy Reign is a roughie who needs the right trip. The 1000m on a Soft track means you can't be too far back for too long, but you don't want to get cooked early either.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Defiance (No.1) — $2.20 / $1.09 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.00
Prob 49.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.39x
Why This is a straight-up race for him, and Soft 7 suits his run style, he should be hard to run down.
2. Sweet Harry (No.4) — $2.50 / $1.13 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.51x
Why A real chance — but at $1.13 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Groundcover (No.2) — $9.40 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.16x
Why Blinkers off first time, and if she settles closer than usual, she can hang around the money.
Roughie: Stormy Reign (No.10) — $15.50 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.88x
Why Cross-over nose band debut can sharpen him, and the softness makes up for a lot of early sins.
Race type: Class 1, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so staying power and the ability to reel in leaders wins the day
Punty read: This is a big "pick your lane and don't get cute" race. Powerful Prayer and Liyah's Girl are the main protagonists. Cool As Popeye is the stalking danger who can pick off tired runners late, and Star Turn Dancer is a filler for your wider multis if things go sideways. On Soft 7 over 2000m, the finishing kick is often the difference between winning and getting photo'd.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Powerful Prayer (No.2) — $2.22 / $1.17 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 31.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why He's got the right profile for a slow 2000m, and the market's confident for a reason.
2. Liyah's Girl (No.4) — $3.25 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.25
Prob 30.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.28x
Why Soft-friendly and likely to be in the right spot to mow down the middle of the field.
3. Cool As Popeye (No.3) — $9.50 / $2.70 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why Blinkers on and winkers help, but he needs a perfect run in this class.
Roughie: Star Turn Dancer (No.5) — $10.30 / $2.85 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 21.8% | Value: 0.83x
Why If the pace stays soft and slow, he can run on, but he's more "sneaky saver" than winner.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so you need either a smart trip or a late kick that actually arrives
Punty read: Deeply is the market's anchor, Deekaygeebee is the one that can run a big race if conditions suit, and Alabama Hussy is the consistent danger. Go Gazza is your roughie, he's the sort that can get a better run than his odds suggest when the race stretches late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($4.25 pool)
1. Deeply (No.9) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.25 Each Way ($2.12W + $2.12P) — ✓ Won, net +$9.56
Prob 13.4% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.79x
Why If she gets room and the tempo doesn't turn into a grind, she can keep hitting the line.
2. Deekaygeebee (No.1) — $7.75 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Alabama Hussy (No.4) — $6.75 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 45.6% | Value: 0.93x
Why On-pace and competitive, but I'm not letting this turn into a place-only lottery.
Roughie: Go Gazza (No.20) — $12.25 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.07x
Why He's got the legs for a wide finish, especially if the pace lets the back-half breathe.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so lane position and sustained effort matters more than flashing early speed
Punty read: Beautiful You is the boss horse. Ring Of Fire and Waves Of Wisdom are the ones who can give you a scare if the tempo is right and they get the right run. Morosini is your sneaky one underneath, and Balmain Warrior is the outsider who can surprise if the race stays messy.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Beautiful You (No.11) — $1.73 / $1.08 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$5.80
Prob 44.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.33x
Why Short price on Soft 7 usually means the plans are on, and her map makes sense for this distance.
2. Ring Of Fire (No.3) — $5.85 / $1.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $2.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.00
Prob 12.3% | Place: 47.9% | Value: 0.89x
Why Cross-over nose band helps focus, and he can run on if the field stretches.
3. Waves Of Wisdom (No.5) — $7.75 / $2.05 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.62x
Why She's capable of a look, but it feels like place value isn't the sweet spot today.
Roughie: Morosini (No.13) — $13.00 / $2.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.45x
Why Morosini can improve massively second-half of the prep, and Maidens love Soft track upsets.
Race type: Open, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, and on a Soft 7 you need to survive the first bend without getting bullied
Punty read: Hurry Miss is a serious bet to be in the finish, Cougars is the quick threat, and Who But Roo can still find his way through if the speed stays honest. Alottosay is a top-four type, Blow In is your wider chaos helper, and this race is where the leaders can set up the winners, but the soft ground makes everything heavier to sustain.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Hurry Miss (No.8) — $4.10 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$62.00
Prob 21.8% | Place: 59.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why Blinkers off and a genuine pace to aim at, she should be right there to pounce when others tire.
2. Cougars (No.6) — $3.25 / $1.55 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 21.5% | Place: 64.2% | Value: 0.90x
Why Blinker first time can sharpen speed, and he's built to run through the middle stages.
3. Who But Roo (No.1) — $6.75 / $2.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 44.2% | Value: 0.96x
Why Big run potential if he finds a clean patch early, but today the main two have my full attention.
Roughie: Miss Emma (No.13) — $9.20 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.94x
Why Leader tendencies can keep her close, and if the others fade, she's the one who keeps drawing closer.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, short trip, so the lane and the timing are everything
Punty read: Pure Melody is the one to trust at the front-running end, Kendalia is the main challenger with wet-track credentials, and Cholante is your place/triangular chaos horse if the field bunches and spreads late. Gem Tycoon is another map-fit runner but this looks like a finish contest where Pure Melody's the one most likely to keep getting first crack.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Pure Melody (No.7) — $2.59 / $1.15 🏆 4TH
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 32.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.04x
Why Cheekers first time and a strong role in the map, she should be in the right spot to take control.
2. Kendalia (No.3) — $3.90 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.80
Prob 23.8% | Place: 65.7% | Value: 1.16x
Why She's got the soft form to keep contributing late, especially if the race stays compact.
3. Cholante (No.1) — $4.50 / $1.52 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 57.1% | Value: 0.87x
Why Backmarker who can run on, but with 1200m timing, I want the main two first.
Roughie: Roullottie (No.10) — $29.50 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.9% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.69x
Why Too much has to go right, but on Soft 7 when luck flips, she can suddenly be in the picture.
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Feazabeel (Race 1, No.4)✓ Won — $2.15
2 - Defiance (Race 3, No.1)✓ Won — $2.20
3 - Beautiful You (Race 6, No.11)✓ Won — $1.73
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Canberra on a Soft 7 with the rail True, and the place where tempo goes to get its feelings hurt. This is one of those meetings where the early section matters, but the finish still throws curveballs like a late season episode of Stranger Things. Slow, sticky, and full of runners who can take advantage if you land in the right spot.
My big theme today, races 1 to 4, is that the "obvious" speed is getting respect, but the wet track can still spit the dummy. If you're on the pace you've got a job, if you're off the speed you'd better be the right kind of roughie, not just vibes and prayers. When the market firms, I listen, and when it drifts, I get suspicious in a good way.
My "Big 3 + Multi" spine is built around real leaders, not dreams. Feazabeel in Race 1 is that clean, class edge type. Defiance in Race 3 is the straight line job. Beautiful You in Race 6 is the one I keep pointing at because when a horse is that short on a Soft track, it usually means someone is seeing the right run. Everything else is us trying to cash the chaos without overcooking it.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 7, Middle distance to sprints 100-2000m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play Speed vs Stamina, with on-pace help)
Weather: Mostly sunny 15C, watch for a gusty chill that keeps legs a bit sticky early
Early lane guess: Speed gets the gun, lanes 1-6 have first dibs if you can find the map
Tempo profile: Slow to genuine, with the Soft 7 stretching every mistake, wide runs cost ground, and the finish is where the "held together by duct tape" horses get rewarded
Jockeys to follow:
Luke Pepper: He's got multiple live runners across the program, and you'll notice he tends to get them into play.
Deon Le Roux: Often finds a rhythm quickly when they're suited, and he's riding confidence lately.
Pierre Boudvillain: When he's got cover and room, he's deadly late, especially in these Canberra tempo mixes.
Stables to respect:
B Joseph & P & M Jones (multiple): They keep showing up in handicaps with horses that can handle soft, and they target these Canberra meet spots.
N F Gardner (multiple): Their runners are often consistent, and when the gear changes hit, they don't muck about.
G P Vella (multiple): Cleanly placed horses, and if the market moves, they're rarely throwing it in for shits and giggles.
Punty's take:
Canberra on Soft 7 is basically a treadmill for the front runners, with the backmarkers doing the slow-motion sprint thing, only to explode late when the gaps finally appear. That suits horses with momentum. So I'm leaning into the on-pace types in the early races, especially where the pace scenario sets up a stalking run rather than a survival run.
Race 1 is the "slow pace, Soft ground, take your medicine" story. Feazabeel is the market's favourite for a reason, he's got the right class profile for this pattern, and Soft form lines up. But I'm keeping an eye on the roughies that have legitimate interference excuses, because on a Soft 7, one blocked run can turn into a free hit next start.
Race 3 through to Race 6 is where the meeting goes from "hope you're on the right one" to "cash the spine and drink something cold." Defiance looks like the one who wants the straight fight, and Beautiful You is the type that keeps doing the same job while the rest keep reinventing themselves.
What it means for you:
Bet like a realist early, then bet like a sicko later. In Races 1 to 4, I want you aggressive with the short-priced map-fit horses, then using the roughies as insurance against a Soft track trip getting messy. You're not here for heroics, you're here for smart placement, and the wet track rewards that.
For the Quaddie and Big 6 lanes, you're going to need a couple of legs to land on the right kind of run. The "Smart" lanes are built for tightness where the favourites can hold serve, the "Wide" lanes are for when Canberra throws a punch and the finish decides to be rude. Keep it fun, keep it controlled, and don't go chasing the impossible when the pace collapses. That's how legends get resurrected from the dead, or how you end up watching the race on replay with tears in your eyes.