Thursday, 25 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Class 1, 1900m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, small field, and a race where everybody will be trying to save petrol for the last 400m
Punty read: This is a proper wet slog. Classic Shiraz has been crunched in the market and is the obvious danger after the interference excuse last time, but Gypsy Wish is the one with the best overall shape: class, map, and enough fitness to keep trucking. Kiss'n Dance is the sleeper if they overdo it early, because he can settle back and be the one flying late when the others are up to their ears in mud. Frictional Force has the inside alley and a bit of wet-track hope, but in a five-runner scrape like this, I still want the ones with the cleaner story. Koojan's plunge is wild, but 0000 form says you're basically betting on a miracle and a prayer.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Gypsy Wish (No.7) — $1.36 / $1.05 SCR
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net +$0.00
Prob 46.3% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.76x
Why He maps sweet in a race with no tempo heat, and if Danny Peisley gets him rolling at the right time, the others need to find another gear in the mud.
2. Classic Shiraz (No.4) — $4.05 / $1.25 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.2% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.28x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Kiss'n Dance (No.1) — $8.00 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.60x
Why He's the late swooper in the race - if the leaders get lazy and the track tightens up, he can rattle home over the top.
Roughie: Frictional Force (No.8) — $11.50 / $2.90 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 45.1% | Value: 1.50x
Why Inside gate, wet ground, and a setup where he could jag a soft run into the places if the front pair start knitting sweaters.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, but not much genuine zip - it's the kind of maiden where a horse can lob into it without breaking the clock
Punty read: This is a bit of a dog's breakfast. New Beginnings looks the safest sort, while Lyrical Gangster is the unknown quantity from the maiden ranks and gets first crack at a decent run if he handles it. Babe Roth and Bloods A Rushin' have both drifted, and on a Heavy 8 that usually means the ring isn't exactly falling over itself to chase them. Eccasdash is the resuming type with a fitness question, and Rowdie Blue is probably looking for a better day and a few less disasters.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. New Beginnings (No.3) — $2.62 / $1.35 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 37.4% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.08x
Why He has the best profile in a thin maiden and looks the one most likely to grind them down if the race turns into a war of attrition.
2. Lyrical Gangster (No.1) — $2.32 / $1.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.5% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.79x
Why A real chance — but at $1.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Eccasdash (No.5) — $5.90 / $2.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.73x
Why Freshened up and with the right sort of place profile to bob around if the race gets messy, but the 79-day break is the query.
Roughie: Bloods A Rushin' (No.4) — $10.00 / $3.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 0.78x
Why The first-time gear changes are the interesting bit - if they wake him up and he doesn't get buried early, he can clatter into a placing at a price.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo, with Navy Kiss likely to be the one they all have to track
Punty read: This is the speed-versus-stamina showdown of the day. Navy Kiss can roll along in front and give them plenty to chase, but he does have to work because there are a few who won't let him get away with murder. Monte Carlo Miss is the one I want exploding late if the leaders overcook it, Strenuous gets the first-time visors and looks like a horse who might finally be told the right story, and Legin is the rough around the edges type who can sit closer than his form suggests. Sajjetti's been firming and the winkers are worth a look, but the yard has to get him to show it on raceday first.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Navy Kiss (No.1) — $1.58 / $1.08 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 44.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.90x
Why He's the natural leader, the one with the map advantage, and if Dylan Turner gets him breathing easy he could have them chasing shadows.
2. Monte Carlo Miss (No.4) — $4.65 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.1% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.13x
Why A real chance — but at $1.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Strenuous (No.10) — $8.30 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 1.62x
Why First-time visors can sharpen him up, but he still has to prove he can lift enough when the pressure goes on.
Roughie: Legin (No.3) — $10.10 / $2.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.89x
Why He's a grinder with a rough enough profile to sneak into the placings if the leaders go too hard, but he's more of a shape play than a bet.
Race type: Benchmark 66, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with a few handy types and enough pressure to make positioning matter
Punty read: This is the kind of race where clean running is everything. Prestige Gundy looks the class runner and gets the right sort of sit midfield, while Scoundrel and Spills can both park handy and make it a proper fight. The market has come for Spills and He's A Copy Boy, which is no surprise after the last-start excuses, but Prestige Gundy is still the one with the neatest profile if he can put a few tidy sections together. Lady Alabama and Icewater have been drifting, and on this track that sort of market wobble usually isn't helping your mood or your wallet.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Prestige Gundy (No.4) — $3.05 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$8.20
Prob 27.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.04x
Why He has the class edge and enough tactical speed to settle in the right spot, which is half the battle on a wet 1300m.
2. Scoundrel (No.5) — $4.60 / $1.55 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 16.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.95x
Why He can roll forward and keep himself in the fight, and if the race turns into a slog he'll be hanging around longer than most.
3. Spills (No.2) — $8.55 / $2.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 9.8% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.02x
Why Heavy market support, a handy map, and the apprentice claim all stack up - if he jumps better than last time, he's right in the trenches.
Roughie: Icewater (No.9) — $12.25 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 0.76x
Why He'll need a lot to go his way from the drift and the bad form, so I'm treating him like a bloke who shows up to the barbecue with no meat.
Race type: Benchmark 66, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo, and there is serious heat on the front end
Punty read: This is the race that can blow the day up if you're lazy. Dizzy Dee wants to go forward, Winchman has to deal with barrier 9 but has enough ability to be a factor, and Bad Forest plus Dance Gavin Dance are the wet-track bruisers who keep showing up like tradies on a Monday morning. Bring Me Saki is interesting if the late switch in rider keeps him out of traffic, but this one could turn into a full-blown scramble if they all go hell for leather early. If the fence is still golden, the on-speed brigade gets a massive assist; if not, the swoopers are licking their lips.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Winchman (No.1) — $3.08 / $1.32 🏆 3RD
Bet $11.00 Each Way ($5.50W + $5.50P) — Cashed, net -$2.20
Prob 18.7% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.73x
Why He's the reliable one in the race, and if he can slot across from the gate and get a soft enough run, he's right in the finish.
2. Bad Forest (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.75 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.7% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.14x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dance Gavin Dance (No.6) — $4.70 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.40
Prob 18.7% | Place: 66.5% | Value: 1.12x
Why He's the sort who can keep hanging around in a hectic sprint and turn a messy race into a place result.
Roughie: Dizzy Dee (No.3) — $12.25 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.69x
Why If he gets the lead and the track stays kind to on-speed runners, he can absolutely make them pay for chasing - just not quite enough to force a bet.
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, open bunch, and one of those races where the right run beats the right horse
Punty read: This is the last dance and it's a sneaky hard one. Lofty Macsporran has the cleanest setup and the best chance to get the soft run the race demands, while Permission Denied has the right kind of barrier and wet-track profile to be a pest if he doesn't get buried. Secret Keeper, Andros and Tara Koda all have a say depending on how hard they go early, and Dark Stratum is the wild one with the new noseband who could either improve sharply or go around like a shopping trolley with a dodgy wheel. This is the sort of race where the map, not the ego, should guide you.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Lofty Macsporran (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 15.9% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.88x
Why He maps to get the softest run of the lot, and in a messy Heavy 8 1400m, that kind of trip is worth its weight in beer.
2. Permission Denied (No.4) — $8.05 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Secret Keeper (No.5) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.84x
Why Honest enough, but he needs the right shape to become a bet rather than just a runner.
Roughie: Dark Stratum (No.1) — $15.75 / $4.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.73x
Why New gear can sharpen them up, but from the wide-ish expectation of the race he'd need a big shift in how it unfolds to win.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,4,9,10 / 4,5,2,9 / 6,1,5,3 / 2,5,4 (192 combos x $0.13 = $25.00) -- 13% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Gypsy Wish (Race 1, No.7) — $1.36
2 - New Beginnings (Race 2, No.3)✗ — $2.62
3 - Navy Kiss (Race 3, No.1) — $1.58
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Casino is serving up a Heavy 8 with the rail true and a few showers hanging around, so this is a day for horses that can handle the muck, hold a spot, and keep bowling when the sting gets taken out of the track. Don't expect a clean swooping circus straight away; early on it should reward the ones on the map, but if the surface chops up, the back half of the card could get a bit Mad Max.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Casino, 1000m to 1900m card
Rail: True
Official going: Heavy 8 (expected to play on-pace early, but get a bit chopped up as the day goes on)
Weather: Shower, 15C, humidity 91%, wind 11km/h SW (watch for track chop, lane shifts, and late swooper chances if the inside gets chewed out)
Early lane guess: True rail should be okay early; if the rain keeps nibbling, the fence may get ordinary late
Tempo profile: Slow through R1 and R2, genuine in R3, moderate in R4 and R6, and a proper bar fight in R5
Jockeys to follow:
Ms Yvette Lewis - she's got a stack of the right sort of sits today and can land in the box seat rather than doing the donkey work
Dylan Turner - on a few key rides, including Navy Kiss, and if he lands them in the right spot he'll be dangerous
Ben Looker - the old pro who can nurse a closer through the slop and time the run instead of just whacking it like a mug
Stables to respect:
Stephen & Jordan Lee (5 runners) - multiple live chances across the card and a few that map to the right run
Marcus Wilson (3 runners) - Classic Shiraz, Strenuous and Star Cheval all have genuine claims if they get a clean go
M J Dunn (3 runners) - Lofty Macsporran, Herald Angel and Fred's Memory give the yard a real say in the finish of the day
Punty's take: This is the sort of Casino meeting that makes form students look clever and mugs look like they've been mugged by the weather. Heavy 8, true rail, showers in the air - that's a proper honesty test. The first thing I'm doing is chucking out any horse that needs a perfect top-of-the-ground dance floor, because this track will expose them faster than a bad karaoke singer at closing time.
The market's already had a sniff at a few of the right ones. Classic Shiraz has been smashed from the clouds in Race 1, Spills and He's A Copy Boy have been getting market love in Race 4, and Race 5 is shaping like a proper sprint scrap where everyone wants a piece of the lead. That usually means the horses with tactical speed and wet-ground grit can pinch a cheap run, while the swoopers need the leaders to go too hard and get stuck in the mud.
What it means for you: Don't be a hero. This is a day to let the map do the talking and keep your bets sharp. The cleanest plays are the ones that can sit handy, save ground, and keep grinding when the going gets ugly. If a horse is drifting, hates the wet, or needs things to go its way, treat it like a dodgy kebab after midnight - probably not worth the risk.
Race 1 and Race 3 are the spine of the card for me, with Gypsy Wish and Navy Kiss the obvious anchors. Race 4 and Race 6 are where you need to protect yourself a bit more because those are the races most likely to turn into a grind and spit out the brave souls who went too skinny. If you're having a crack at the multi or quaddie, keep the faith with the best maps, but don't fall in love with shorties just because they're short - on a Heavy 8, the track loves to humble the overconfident.