Thursday, 25 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1350m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, and that means the run in transit matters more than a fancy slogan on the form guide
Punty read: This looks like a race where the leader isn't exactly going to get a free lunch, but the horse sitting closest to the right spot can absolutely dictate the finish. Elevating is the obvious anchor, Mean King has had a touch of market love, and Sniper Boom is the one who can lob late if the others start farting around. Hot Sun and Nifty's Treasure are the "if the favourites go for a walk" type, but they need the race to fall in their lap.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Elevating (No.4) — $1.52 / $1.03 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$5.70
Prob 46.4% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why Has the right profile for a maiden like this - fit, near the top of the market, and the race doesn't look deep enough to knock it over unless it goes pear-shaped.
2. Mean King (No.2) — $3.45 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 31.1% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.34x
Why A real chance — but at $1.20 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Sniper Boom (No.1) — $14.00 / $2.25 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$16.90
Prob 6.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.13x
Why Blinkers again and the map says he'll be one of the ones picking up the pieces if the tempo gets messy or the favourite gets a touch too cosy.
Roughie: Nifty's Treasure (No.6) — $26.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.22x
Why The market has had a nibble, but he needs the race to blow up in front of him to get serious.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with a few handy types; this is where position and intent really matter
Punty read: Proper sprint shape here. La Profecia should be camped close enough to get first run, Thrash A Bully from barrier 3 is the sort who can sit handy and make life awkward, and City Bound is the saver-type who can keep rolling into the finish. Major Hot is the one with enough upside to scare you if the leaders overcook it, while Kuia Ma gets respect because genuine pace can make the race honest.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. La Profecia (No.4) — $1.82 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.75
Prob 41.9% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why Maps beautifully, has the right jockey on, and this isn't the sort of maiden where you want to be giving away track position for free.
2. Thrash A Bully (No.10) — $5.00 / $1.65 🏆 6TH
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 17.0% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.01x
Why Blinkers first time can sharpen this bloke up and the barrier is lovely enough to get him into the race without needing a miracle.
3. City Bound (No.14) — $6.50 / $2.05 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.20
Prob 15.0% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.22x
Why Handy map, decent enough lane, and if the race gets messy he'll be one of the last men standing.
Roughie: Major Hot (No.9) — $9.50 / $2.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.32x
Why If they fly early and leave petrol in the tank for the back end, he can swoop into the frame.
Race type: BM58, 2150m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, which is a bastard for the wrong horse and a gift for the one that saves energy and times the run
Punty read: This is a proper get-out-of-the-way race. If they crawl early, the backmarkers can get stuck in traffic and the leaders can pinch it; if they stack up and sprint late, you're looking for the horse with the best turn of foot and the cleanest lane. Our Brave Lini is the one they want, but Kerkorian and Big Tech are the types that can keep the ticket alive without needing to win the race outright. Tuki Twelve is the sneaky one if the tempo turns honest and the others go to sleep.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.50 pool)
1. Our Brave Lini (No.8) — $4.20 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — Cashed, net -$0.50
Prob 15.1% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.82x
Why The recent run profile says this one is reliable enough to keep in the fight, and the race shape isn't scary if the tempo is honest enough.
2. Kerkorian (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.12x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Big Tech (No.5) — $6.00 / $2.20 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 13.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.04x
Why The drift isn't ideal, but the horse has excuses in the recent runs and the map gives him a sniff if they bunch up turning for home.
Roughie: Tuki Twelve (No.2) — $11.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.68x
Why One of those grinder types who can clunk into the money if the race turns into a war of attrition rather than a burn-up.
Race type: BM65, 1350m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, but this one still has enough pace angles to make a mess of the finish
Punty read: Gambino is the market pick, but the value lives in the horses around him. Vixenette has been hammered in betting and that says somebody likes what they see, Lumens Lenny gets the cosy run near the speed, and Bolshevic Road is the roughie with the right kind of profile if the race doesn't turn into a procession. Nails And Pride can absolutely win, but the weight rise has me a touch wary; Echo Hunter is the "don't forget me" horse if he gets a clean crack.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Gambino (No.3) — $3.00 / $1.30 🏆 4TH
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 22.4% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.85x
Why Has the map to be involved and enough recent class to take this out if he gets the right run.
2. Vixenette (No.9) — $4.20 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.85x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Lumens Lenny (No.5) — $5.50 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 14.2% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.98x
Why Maps nicely, has the experience, and in a race like this the bloke sitting in the right spot can look like a genius.
Roughie: Bolshevic Road (No.10) — $10.00 / $2.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.21x
Why The one with a proper path to upset things if the favourites end up in a wrestling match on the turn.
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace and a leader in Booya Boy - this one should be run honestly from the jump
Punty read: This is a proper pressure race, and that's where the sprint specialists either look like gladiators or get found out in about 300 metres. Everybody Rise is the class horse, Adranos has the right sort of profile if the map doesn't get cute, and Ode To Beauty is the place play that can absorb all the nonsense if they go too hard early. Booya Boy is the one to watch because if he gets an easy lead, the race shape changes in a heartbeat. Steffi Electrica is the dark corner of the map - not my main play, but not one to treat like a write-off either.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Everybody Rise (No.1) — $3.60 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$17.57
Prob 22.0% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.01x
Why The class horse in the race, and if he gets a decent run from the draw he should be right there at the business end.
2. Adranos (No.2) — $3.40 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.68x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Ode To Beauty (No.9) — $15.00 / $3.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$24.70
Prob 4.7% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.90x
Why Gets the right shape if the leaders overcook it, and this is the sort of race where a hard-run tempo can drag a place horse into the frame.
Roughie: A Touch From Fayt (No.10) — $12.00 / $3.30 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.41x
Why Two kilos down and capable of running a cheeky race if the pace is hot enough to help a horse getting the right trail.
Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace again, with enough tempo to keep the honest types in the frame and the wide runs under pressure
Punty read: This is a race where the speed map really does the talking. Metal Man is the short-priced anchor, but Ardie Three and Venom Rush both map like they're going to get every chance to be in the finish. Dyami is the sneaky one because the market's had a go and the horse has the right kind of upward profile to keep improving. Boomshanka can pinch a cheque if the blinkers wake him up, while Brutal Lass is the blowout horse who can run on if the front end goes to war.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. Metal Man (No.2) — $1.92 / $1.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 16.4% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.41x
Why Short, sharp and obvious - the horse to beat, but you're not getting rich, you're getting safe.
2. Ardie Three (No.4) — $7.00 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.30x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Venom Rush (No.9) — $8.00 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$11.25
Prob 14.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.49x
Why Cross-over nose band first time and a pace advantage - that usually means the stable wants a better effort, and the map says he can oblige.
Roughie: Dyami (No.1) — $10.00 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.48x
Why The firming says someone likes the setup, and if the race turns into a grinding finish he can run into the frame at a price.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 8,4,5 / 3,9,5,10 / 1,2,10 / 4,2,9,1 (144 combos x $0.22 = $32.00) -- 22% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Elevating (Race 1, No.4)✓ Won — $1.52
2 - Mean King (Race 1, No.2)✗ — $3.45
3 - La Profecia (Race 2, No.4)✓ Won — $1.82
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ipswich is serving up a Soft 5 with a few showers hanging around like a bloke who thinks the TAB is his second home, and this card looks part chess match, part pub brawl.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ipswich, 1000-2150m card
Rail: +4 metres entire course
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair-to-on speed, with handy runners getting first crack)
Weather: Shower or two, 20°C, humidity 61%, wind 14km/h SE (watch for little surface chop and a lane or two shifting as the day rolls on)
Early lane guess: Two-to-four off the fence looks the sweet spot; don't go hunting the fence blindly, but don't get buried midfield either
Tempo profile: R1/R3/R4 look like crawl-and-sprint jobs, while R2/R5/R6 are proper pressure races where the on-speed types can make the rest earn it
Jockeys to follow:
Ryan Maloney, gets live rides on Elevating and La Profecia, and he's the one likely steering the ship in a couple of key races.
Martin Harley, keeps popping up on the right types, and his book reads like a bloke with the map before the rest of us.
Ashley Butler, if he lands a clean run from the draw, he can pinch one of these Ipswich races without breaking a sweat.
Stables to respect:
T J Gollan (3 runners), La Profecia, Adranos and Boomshanka are all set up to be in the finish if the map falls their way.
Chris & Corey Munce (2 runners), Mean King and Funky Zebra are the live shots; when this team has one right, it usually turns up ready.
Jack Bruce (2 runners), Everybody Rise and Ardie Three both look built for the conditions, and that yard has a knack for having them cherry-ripe.
Punty's take:
This meeting feels like Ipswich doing Ipswich things: a couple of races where the tempo is flatter than a Carlton draft on a Monday, then a few sprints where everyone gets shoved into the meat grinder and the leaders have to hold the fort. On a Soft 5 with the rail out, you don't want to be too precious about where the horse settles, but you absolutely want the map on your side. The races with genuine pressure - R2, R5 and R6 - are where the handy on-pacers can nick a break and make the swoopers chase their tails like extras in Mad Max.
Race 1 and Race 3 are more of a sit-and-steer exercise. If they dawdle, the bloke riding the right spot wins the argument, not necessarily the best horse. That's why the market has got a couple of these short enough to make sense but not so short you can just lob a brick at them and call it analysis. The real spice on the card is Race 4 and Race 5 - one looks messy, the other looks fast - and that's where the roughies can either save your arse or torch the wallet.
The main thing: the meeting should reward horses that can hold a position without overdoing it, then quicken when the gaps appear. If you're sitting back waiting for a miracle swoop in the slow races, you might be waiting with the other mugs while the leaders pinch it. But if you're patient and let the map tell the story, there's enough value to keep the dog from stealing your lunch.
What it means for you:
Don't go full cowboy from Race 1. The safest way through this card is to bank the clean map horses, then use the quaddie to cover the dodgy races where the tempo can turn a favourite into a spectator. Place betting is the play style I want more than win-only in the trickier races, because this meeting has a few "almost" horses that are way more likely to run into the money than knock the whole thing over.
Where you can be aggressive is in the races where the shape is obvious: La Profecia in Race 2, Everybody Rise in Race 5, and Metal Man in Race 6 are the types that can anchor multis and keep you out of the nurse's office. Where you need to protect is Race 3 and Race 4 - both can turn into messy little head-scratchers where one poor lane or a dud tempo buries your ticket. Use the market movers as a guide, but don't marry every drifter or firmer; some are getting money for good reason, some are just wearing perfume.
If you're having a crack at exotics, keep them tight and logical. Don't try to get cute in the roughie graveyard. There are enough live chances in the top three lines across the card to build a sane day out of it without needing a miracle from the clouds.