For all of Punty's tips for Ellerslie, head to https://punty.ai/tips/ellerslie-2026-06-06

Rightio Loose Units, Ellerslie has coughed up a Soft 6 with the rail shoved out 12m, a bit of drizzle hanging around, and enough humidity to make a bucket of prawns sweat. It looks like one of those cards where the first half can be tactical and ugly, then the back end turns into a full-blown pub brawl.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Ellerslie, 1200m to 2100m card
Rail: Out 12m
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play to horses that handle the chop, can sustain a run, and don't mind getting a bit of dirt in the teeth)
Weather: Shower or two, 10°C, humidity 100%, wind 14km/h WNW (watch for fresh rain, a tightening lane, and a bit of chop if the showers keep nibbling)
Early lane guess: Middle to slightly off the fence; by the back end, keep an eye on whatever strip the leaders have chewed up least
Tempo profile: Early races look dawdle-and-sprint; Race 6 turns into a proper pace; Race 7 and Race 8 are the sort of races that can flip the bird to your best-laid plans
Jockeys to follow:
George Rooke — keeps landing on horses that map well and can get them rolling before the field turns into soup
Craig Grylls — the old ice-man; perfect for these soft-track grinders when timing matters more than bravado
Michael Mc Nab — pops up on a stack of live rides and knows how to nurse one into the finish without overcooking it
Stables to respect:
L O'sullivan & A Scott (3 runners) — live in the early races and have enough depth to nick a couple if the market keeps humming
S B Marsh (4 runners) — plenty of runners across the card and a few that can land a proper blow if the map falls their way
Andrew Forsman (3 runners) — always dangerous when the right horse turns up in the right race, and Pacifico/Orson Stone give them a sniff

Punty's take:

This meeting feels like one of those classic Ellerslie Saturdays where the form guide looks tidy until the rain and rail combo says, 'nah mate, not today'. The early card has a few slow-run affairs, so horses with a sharp turn of foot and a handy map are gold. The back end gets tougher: Race 6 is a genuine test, Race 7 is a 3yo rattle-trap, and Race 8 looks like the sort of open handicap that can make a sensible man reach for a second beer.

The market's already giving us a few clues. Sweet Smile and Manolete have been firmed up, Vicar's Choice and She's No Saint have had the punting mob piling in, and Curved Glory has been steamed like a dumpling in Race 7. On the flip side, there are some nasty drifts hanging around Race 6 and Race 8, which is usually the market saying, 'we're not married to this bloke, champ'. That doesn't always mean disaster, but it does mean you want your antennae up.

If you like speed horses, this is not a day to be asleep at the wheel. If you like swoopers, you better be sure they're getting a genuine tempo because a few of these early races are more chess than demolition derby. The best angle looks to be the horses that can sit within striking distance, handle soft ground, and keep producing when others are starting to paddle. Think less Top Gun, more Mad Max with a wet track and a bent steering wheel.

What it means for you:

The sane play is to lean into the races where the map and the track are doing the heavy lifting: Race 4, Race 6 and Race 7 are your anchor legs. That doesn't mean you blindly spear the favourites like a mug at the bagman; it means you respect the horses that can actually control or stalk the pace and get first shot.

For straight bets, I'd be more comfortable taking the place or each way routes in the messy races, because this day has enough banana skins to break your ankle. Save the aggression for the races where the tempo is honest and the runners have clear roles. In the chaos races, protect your backside and don't be afraid to let a couple of shorties beat you if the price stinks.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Manolete (Race 4, No.2) — $2.85
Why Barrier 2 is a peach, the profile's solid, and in a maiden like this you want the bloke who can sit handy and not get lost in traffic. Grylls is the right hoop for a soft-track grind and this looks the cleanest route through the muck.

2 - Pacifico (Race 6, No.2) — $3.75
Why This fella is the map horse in a race where genuine pace is on the menu. If he controls it or sits there breathing down the leader's neck, the rest can get to work chasing shadows.

3 - Curved Glory (Race 7, No.8) — $4.62
Why Fresh, handy, and drawn to get the first crack at the straight. In a 3yo scrap where a lot can go wrong, this is the one with the shape of a winner if it jumps clean and rolls into the race.

Multi (all three to win): $10 x ~49.42 = ~ $494.20 collect

Race 1 – Trackside.co.nz Hcp

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, with Lhasa and Uderzo likely to boss the first part and the rest waiting for the sprint button
Punty read: This is a classic tactical Ellerslie opener where the rail and the soft ground should make horses earn every inch. Sweet Smile is the one they all have to beat, but the race isn't a charity, and if the favourite gets cluttered or asked to do the donkey work too early, one of the others can pinch it. Lhasa's got the fresh legs angle, Uderzo is the on-pace type who can stalk and strike, and Bellarista is the sort of horse that can wedge into the fight if the tempo gets silly. It feels like a race where the winner is probably sitting in the first four turning in, not flying from the car park like some Marvel superhero.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Sweet Smile (No.4) — $2.55 / $1.37
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 40.8% | Place: 57.9% | Value: 1.01x
Why The track record is proper, the soft form is proper, and barrier 1 lets her save every inch while the others cart each other around. She's the one with the profile to sit midfield and punch through when the pressure goes on.
2. Uderzo (No.3) — $4.40 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 36.1% | Value: 0.91x
Why On-pace, fits the race shape, and the soft ground doesn't scare it one bit. If Sweet Smile gets a wobble, this is the bloke that can make the favourite earn every metre.
3. Bellarista (No.5) — $4.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 38.3% | Value: 0.97x
Why Honest type, maps midfield, and if the leaders roll a bit too steady it can be the one finishing over the top of the tired legs.
Roughie: Lhasa (No.2) — $9.50 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 27.4% | Value: 1.10x
Why Fresh, handy enough, and the market has given it a bit of respect. If the race turns into a sit-and-sprint and the leaders overdo the tactical stuff, this can sneak a place or better.

Race 2 – The Lawn Shed 2yo

Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, so the first few strides matter and the horse with the cleanest turn of foot can pinch the race
Punty read: Two-year-olds on a soft Ellerslie deck are a dangerous little circus, and this one has all the ingredients. Fatal Affair is the model's top pick, but the market's drift says plenty of punters are looking at the ceiling and going, 'hmm, maybe not'. That said, one run under the belt and an interference excuse means there could still be upside. Judy's Smarties has the inside draw and the right stable behind it, Pellargo has sneaky value if the drift's just noise, and She's No Saint can stalk and gobble up the late ground if they crawl early. This is more Baby Shark than Black Caviar - don't get too precious.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Fatal Affair (No.8) — $3.05 / $1.60
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 20.0% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 0.73x
Why One run in, excuses on the table, and enough natural speed to make a proper fist of a weakly-run 2yo race. If it jumps clean and doesn't get lost, it's right in the fight.
2. Judy's Smarties (No.1) — $3.55 / $1.85
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 23.4% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.08x
Why Barrier 1 is a weapon in a crawl like this, and the stable knows how to land one when the race gets tactical. It can park up and be the annoying little bastard that keeps hanging around.
3. Pellargo (No.3) — $5.45 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why The drift is ugly, but the shape still suits if they don't go too hard. Handy gate, soft track, and enough talent to keep turning up when the others start wobbling.
Roughie: Vicar's Choice (No.5) — $16.75 / $5.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.4% | Place: 29.7% | Value: 1.05x
Why The big market support says somebody likes it, and if the favourite gets the race wrong, this can run into the minors with a bit of cheek.

Race 3 – Myracehorse (Bm65)

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with Fleeting Star and Beneath The Stars likely rolling forward and forcing everyone to commit
Punty read: This is the sort of race where speed versus stamina has a proper ding-dong. Fleeting Star looks the likely leader, but that last-start issue and the soft ground mean it isn't just a free kick. Sweetazme is the value horse with a lovely fresh profile and the kind of combo that can steamroll late if the front end gets greedy. Opressor is the place angle, especially if the race becomes a sit-up sprint rather than a burn-up. Beneath The Stars is the roughie with the map to make it interesting, but the market's not exactly singing its love song. If you're looking for the horse that can do the work and not die in the bum, this is your race.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)

1. Fleeting Star (No.1) — $3.55 / $1.50
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 18.8% | Place: 45.6% | Value: 0.92x
Why Has the map to be right there and the class to keep turning up, but the soft track and the extra weight make it work for every inch. If it gets a clean run, it still takes serious beating.
2. Sweetazme (No.2) — $5.20 / $2.05
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 35.6% | Value: 1.00x
Why Fresh-up profile is the key here, and the horse has shown it can fire from the couch when it resumes. If the leaders aren't going hard enough, this can lob into the finish like a bloke who rocks up late and somehow still wins the darts.
3. Opressor (No.4) — $6.70 / $2.30
Bet $2.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.80
Prob 11.6% | Place: 42.4% | Value: 1.07x
Why Lightly raced, on the speed, and from a decent gate it can get the right run without needing a miracle. On the place line, it's the safe little parachute if the others fall in a heap.
Roughie: Beneath The Stars (No.5) — $9.40 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 41.1% | Value: 0.99x
Why If the race turns into a hard-run drag race, this is the one that can swoop over the top and spoil the party.

Race 4 – Eagle Technology Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, Earlicheer and Mafia Whispers want to get on with it, while the others are trying to work out which end of the thing goes fastest
Punty read: Maiden races are where your soul goes to die if you overthink them, and this one is no exception. Manolete has the perfect inside setup and the market's been sniffing around for a reason - there's a clean map, a good hoop, and enough form to suggest the penny might finally drop. Prominere can sit right on the speed and make this race honest, and Earlicheer is the other one with enough pace to matter if the favourite doesn't bring its A-game. Winner Patch is the roughie worth keeping in the back pocket; the place numbers are juicy enough to make the eyebrows twitch. This is a proper maiden scrap - think Rocky III, but with more mud.

Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)

1. Manolete (No.2) — $2.85 / $1.35
Bet $11.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$20.41
Prob 24.4% | Place: 57.0% | Value: 0.65x
Why Barrier 2, tactical speed, and a map that says 'get the favours and go'. In this kind of maiden, the one who parks in the right spot usually gets first crack at the loot.
2. Prominere (No.8) — $3.75 / $1.60
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 17.1% | Place: 43.9% | Value: 0.86x
Why On the speed and ready to make life hard for everyone else. If Manolete gets even slightly cluttered, this can be the one kicking on into the frame.
3. Earlicheer (No.1) — $5.70 / $2.15
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.60
Prob 16.8% | Place: 43.2% | Value: 0.98x
Why Has enough soft-track experience to hang around and the inside draw gives it every chance to get the suck-run without burning petrol.
Roughie: Winner Patch (No.6) — $14.50 / $3.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 25.3% | Value: 1.32x
Why The rough path is simple - if the leaders knock each other around, this one can ghost into a minor placing late.

Race 5 – Golf Warehouse (Bm65)

Race type: Benchmark 65, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, so there'll be a bit of bluffing early and a proper sprint home
Punty read: This is a bit of a chess match, and those can get bloody weird on a Soft 6. Free Bird is the locked top pick because it maps to get a sweet run, but the real value in the race is San Simeon, whose price is better than the form line suggests. Sweet But Psycho is the classic backmarker with a hope if the speed is tepid and the leaders get cute. Alaskan is the roughie that can sneak into the money if they crawl and then pile on late. The race shape screams 'don't get trapped on a dead piece of ground', because once they quicken, the race can be over in a blink.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Free Bird (No.2) — $3.35 / $1.50
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$14.96
Prob 20.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.97x
Why Handy map, proven at the trip, and gets the kind of run that can make a stayer look like a genius. If it settles near the speed without getting dragged into a war, it's right in the zone.
2. San Simeon (No.1) — $8.95 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 21.4% | Value: 1.00x
Why The value is screaming here, and the inside draw gives it a path to save ground while the others burn petrol. If the tempo turns tactical, this one can be the sneaky bastard that launches late.
3. Sweet But Psycho (No.3) — $8.65 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 31.5% | Value: 1.15x
Why The backmarker setup is fine if they crawl, but from that alley it needs the race to fall apart in front of it. Good horse, awkward job.
Roughie: Alaskan (No.9) — $9.40 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 30.8% | Value: 1.20x
Why If they overdo it up front, this one can come charging home and make the frame look silly.

Race 6 – Yourride Hcp

Race type: Open, 2100m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo, with Pacifico likely ripping along out in front and making the others chase a proper staying test
Punty read: This is the anchor race for the big end of the card. Pacifico is the one that sets the tone, and if he gets comfortable in front, the rest are playing catch-up on a soft deck over 2100m - which is a mug's game. War Of Succession has the short price but not the same trust factor, Super Fly is the obvious danger if you can ignore the price, and Hezashocka is the roughie with the map to run into the exotics if the leaders go at it like two drunk blokes arguing over a pool table. This is where you want a horse that can sustain a run, not one that needs a miracle and a taxi.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Pacifico (No.2) — $3.75 / $1.65
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 16.3% | Place: 36.8% | Value: 0.89x
Why Genuine leader, perfect tempo fit, and the soft 2100m looks like his office. If he controls the race even a touch, the rest are in a world of pain.
2. War Of Succession (No.11) — $3.48 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 37.9% | Value: 1.10x
Why The market respects it, but the price has gone a bit skinny for the job in hand. Still, if the pace gets hot enough, this one can be the late threat.
3. Super Fly (No.12) — $2.16 / $1.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.7% | Place: 39.4% | Value: 0.62x
Why Classy enough, but the price is a bit like paying $20 for a sausage roll in the airport - you're allowed to do it, but it feels wrong.
Roughie: Hezashocka (No.3) — $15.25 / $4.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 26.5% | Value: 1.23x
Why If the leaders cook each other, this is the horse that can pick up the pieces and lumber into the frame when the others are waving the white flag.

Race 7 – Elsdon Park 3yo

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, with a stack of on-pacers and enough pressure to make the straight feel like a knife fight
Punty read: Here we go - the 3yo blender. Curved Glory has been backed like the punting police are after it, and fair enough too: fresh horse, good map, and a trainer-jockey setup that can absolutely nick one in a race like this. Ruby Rush is the other serious player with enough tactical speed to sit close and punch late, while Cosmic Dream is the horse you include because it keeps finding the line even when the race gets messy. She's A Boss is the roughie with the freshener and the market whisper, but the stable angle says 'respect it, don't marry it'. This is the sort of race that can turn into a scene from Fast & Furious if they go too hard early.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Curved Glory (No.8) — $4.62 / $2.20
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$4.55
Prob 11.0% | Place: 62.2% | Value: 1.02x
Why Fresh, sharp, and the market's been taking notice for good reason. The map is kind, and in a race like this that can be half the battle won before they even hit the straight.
2. Ruby Rush (No.2) — $3.84 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.0% | Place: 42.2% | Value: 1.42x
Why Handy gate, good enough form, and enough tactical speed to be right in the mix. If the leaders soften each other up, this is the one that can pounce.
3. Cosmic Dream (No.6) — $2.60 / $1.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 42.9% | Value: 0.68x
Why It's the obvious horse to follow if you want class and consistency, but the price is stingy and the job isn't easy from that setup.
Roughie: Nulli (No.11) — $23.00 / $4.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.4% | Place: 33.1% | Value: 1.13x
Why Big price, fair bit of hope, and the sort of horse that can sneak into the exotics if the race gets turned upside down.

Race 8 – Show By Skycity (Bm65)

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo on paper, but the field is big enough and weird enough that this can turn chaotic in a hurry
Punty read: This is the one that'll have everyone swearing at the screen by the time they hit the bend. Andiamo is the top pick and the one to lean on, but the race is a proper chaos handicap and you want to keep your wits about you. Chateau Vallee is the value runner with the right sort of fresh profile and enough form to make the market look a bit silly if it gets the right run. Mo Charaid can lob into the placings if the race turns into a sit-and-sprint, and Yokozuna is the roughie with the big overlay that makes a sicko start nodding along. This is not the race to get cute and short-priced in unless you enjoy pain for breakfast.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Andiamo (No.10) — $4.63 / $2.65
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$70.20
Prob 13.0% | Place: 33.7% | Value: 1.17x
Why The model's top pick, and it gets the nod because it can handle the tactical shape of the race and has the right sort of late kick to make use of a soft tempo.
2. Chateau Vallee (No.7) — $9.30 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why This is the spicy one. Fresh enough, the price is still fair, and if the race gets messy this horse can absolutely mug them late.
3. Mo Charaid (No.5) — $17.25 / $4.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 28.3% | Value: 1.27x
Why The run style says sit, wait, and hope the front end overcooks itself. If they go slow then quicken, this can hang on for a slice.
Roughie: Yokozuna (No.1) — $12.25 / $4.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 31.2% | Value: 1.31x
Why The market's been oddly rude to it, which is usually enough to make the ears prick up. If it gets a cosy run from the inside, it's the kind of horse that can crash the exotics.

SEQUENCE LANES — SINGLE OPTIMISED TICKET

EARLY QUADDIE (R1-4)

Smart: 3,4,5 / 8,1,3 / 1,2,4,5 / 2,8,1,6 (144 combos x $0.30 = $43.20) — 30% flexi
Tight enough to respect the bankers, but with enough cover in the baby race and maiden to survive a wobble.
Punty's take: Two races have clear shape, but Race 2 and Race 4 can still get weird. 30% flexi keeps it honest and the payout alive if one of the shorties cops a hiding.

QUADDIE (R5-8)

Smart: 2,1,9 / 2,11,12,3 / 8,2,6,11 / 10,7,5,1 (192 combos x $0.30 = $57.60) — 30% flexi
A proper late-card grinder with a couple of value horses, one chaos leg, and enough depth to stop the whole thing falling over in a heap.
Punty's take: This is a legit survival ticket, not a love letter. Race 7 and Race 8 are the danger legs, so the extra cover is there for a reason.

BIG 6 (R3-8)

Smart: 1,2 / 2,8 / 2,1 / 2,11 / 8,2 / 10,7 (64 combos x $0.47 = $30.08) — 47% flexi
Tight, tidy, and built to dodge the worst of the chaos without blowing the bank on a race sequence that's historically a bit of a trap.
Punty's take: Kept this one on a leash because Big 6s can eat your lunch if you get greedy. Enough shape to have a crack, but not so wide it turns into a donation.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Soft 6, rail out, and the map matters more than ego
Ellerslie on a Soft 6 with the rail out 12m usually rewards horses that can park up handy and keep rolling. If you're buried back and need luck, you're handing the race over to the track and the track is a bastard.

2 - The market has already drawn a few lines in the sand
Vicar's Choice, She's No Saint, Curved Glory, and Pacifico have all had the punters leaning forward, while some of the ugly drifters in Race 6 and Race 8 are screaming 'proceed with caution'. When the money and the map agree, pay attention.

3 - Fresh horses aren't dead on this card, but the wet form is the boss
Lhasa, Sweetazme, Prominere, and Curved Glory all come in with fresh legs or a nice restart pattern, but the real tell is whether they can handle the Soft 6 and the tempo. It's a bit like The Matrix - if they can't read the pattern, they're toast.

THE DEGEN DEN

That'll do us for Ellerslie, legends. A couple of bankers, a couple of value rippers, and enough traps to keep the mug punters honest. Stick to the map, trust the soft-track horses, and don't go full goblin on every shortie just because it's wearing nice silks. Gamble Responsibly.