Saturday, 06 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 900m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Misty Veil and the on-speed brigade should get the first crack, but the tailwind gives the late rattlers a decent sniff if the leaders overdo it
Punty read: This is the old 900m scorch-and-survive job, except the pace isn't savage enough to completely toast the front-end. Misty Veil looks the one the market has latched onto, but the wide draw means she's not getting a picnic. Mr Cornstar and Love You Anyway can sit closer, while the rougher types need the tempo to fall in a heap. If you like a swooper here, you're basically betting the race turns into a scene from Mad Max.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Misty Veil (No.9) — $2.08 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 40.5% | Place: 67.6% | Value: 1.00x
Why Has been knocking on the door, the money's there, and despite the gate she still looks the class horse if Mitchell Bell can lob with cover and not get trapped in a speed war.
2. Pistoleer (No.12) — $5.50 / $1.85 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.75
Prob 14.8% | Place: 36.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why The drift says "buyer beware" but the race shape says he can be running on late if the leaders overcook it; this is the sort of horse that sneaks into the frame when the straight turns into a conveyor belt.
3. Vingt Neuf Noir (No.11) — $8.80 / $2.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 31.1% | Value: 0.82x
Why Had excuses last time, no doubt, but he still needs a few things to go his way and the map isn't exactly handing him the keys to the Ferrari.
Roughie: Love You Anyway (No.8) — $16.50 / $3.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.2% | Place: 23.2% | Value: 0.82x
Why Honest as a dog on a tucker box and will keep grinding, but he's probably more an exotics and placings horse unless the race completely falls apart.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo; Zephyr Song should be rolling along, with Movie Night stalking and the run-on types getting every chance to land
Punty read: This is more of a proper race than a sit-and-sprint scam. Movie Night has the map to get the gun run, Where's My Halo and Zephyr Song can keep it honest, and Royal Botanic is the sort who can camp just off them and get first crack when the pressure goes on. If you're looking for a race where the favourite might actually deserve the chop, this is it - but the value still sits with the one who gets the cleanest trip.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. Movie Night (No.1) — $1.94 / $1.17 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 37.2% | Place: 68.4% | Value: 1.02x
Why Resumption run was all class and now he's fitter, draws the paint, and gets the exact sort of run that wins these middling maidens when the stable means business.
2. Where's My Halo (No.8) — $4.70 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.00
Prob 17.6% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.88x
Why Keeps hitting the line and should be the one climbing over them late as the pace does its work up front; if the track plays a touch testing, he's right in the sweet spot.
3. Zephyr Song (No.9) — $4.95 / $1.55 🏆 4TH
Bet $1.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$1.50
Prob 16.7% | Place: 53.6% | Value: 0.76x
Why Can roll forward and control enough of the race to make this a genuine test, and if Zac Wadick gets the fractions right, this bloke won't be stopping like a busted lawn mower.
Roughie: My Cartouche (No.2) — $22.00 / $3.80 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.4% | Place: 20.3% | Value: 0.69x
Why Big layoff, tricky profile, but the stable support says there's a bit of faith; if he's wound up enough first-up, he's the wild card with the most upside.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Aethelwulf and the classier types get a lovely chance to pounce late, while the backmarkers need the race to stay honest enough to test stamina
Punty read: This one looks like the kind of race where the leader could coast and pinch it if nobody wants to blink first. Aethelwulf is the obvious standard-setter, Gridlock has the map to park up and stalk, and Monotone is the sort of horse who can improve sharply if the blinkers and tongue tie do the trick. The pace being soft is the big story - if it turns into a crawl, the swoopers are basically trying to catch a train that's already left the station.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Aethelwulf (No.1) — $2.35 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$9.35
Prob 29.3% | Place: 58.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why Looked the right sort at debut, the trial return was solid, and this is the kind of assignment where the naturally better horse can just sit midfield and bully them late.
2. Gridlock (No.13) — $4.70 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.05
Prob 18.6% | Place: 42.1% | Value: 1.28x
Why Gets the sort of race where a bit of cover and a decent tempo matter more than being flashy; he's the type to wind up into the frame when the others are still arguing about the early speed.
3. Monotone (No.7) — $4.90 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 43.1% | Value: 0.88x
Why Blinkers and tongue tie could sharpen him up, but he still needs to find a length or two and the slow tempo doesn't exactly scream "big swooper day".
Roughie: Life Is A Shiraz (No.16) — $13.00 / $3.20 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.9% | Place: 31.4% | Value: 0.53x
Why First-time blinkers and a bit of freshness might wake him up, but he'll need the gaps to open and the race to turn into a proper shape-shifter.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo; The Autumn Choice is the likely speed in the race, with Exit Clause and Genesis Runner waiting to nick the better runs
Punty read: This is the race where you can almost smell the arguments at the back fence. Exit Clause has the nice soft draw and the right class of finish, Genesis Runner has the market respect but not the same excitement in the model, and Don't Doubt Frank is the old "always around the money" type. The Autumn Choice is the wild card - if he gets free-rolling room up front, he can make a few of these look ordinary. But if the pressure goes on, the backmarkers will be launching like the last act of Top Gun.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Exit Clause (No.1) — $2.66 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$24.00
Prob 27.2% | Place: 65.4% | Value: 0.70x
Why Great debut run, fitter again, and the soft draw puts him in the exact stalking lane you want in a race where the speed isn't likely to blow the doors off.
2. Genesis Runner (No.5) — $2.75 / $1.32 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.9% | Place: 49.8% | Value: 0.91x
Why Has the fitness edge and is dangerous if they go too hard, but the map and the price don't quite hand you the free square you're after.
3. Don't Doubt Frank (No.9) — $4.10 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.0% | Place: 44.7% | Value: 1.01x
Why Honest enough and has a bit of upside, but he's more "runs a race" than "sticks his neck out and wins the lot".
Roughie: The Autumn Choice (No.7) — $13.75 / $3.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 17.4% | Value: 1.18x
Why If he gets control from the front he can pinch the race like a cheeky pub pool shark, but if the pressure comes early he'll be for sale.
Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Gravel Road gets the nice pace edge, while the others have to slot in and hope the race doesn't turn into a messy brawl
Punty read: This is a proper little C1 puzzle. Lighthouse Lass has the right profile and the market's got her pinned as the one to beat, but Divo and Emalyn aren't far behind and the speed map says the run can suit more than just the favourite. Gravel Road is the sneaky one - winkers on, pace advantage, and if he gets a clean crack he can run over the top of them like a bloke arriving late to the barbecue and still taking the best steak.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Lighthouse Lass (No.10) — $3.77 / $1.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 20.3% | Place: 28.6% | Value: 1.00x
Why Tough, consistent and gets a good enough map to make her a legitimate anchor - if the race gets run fairly, she's the one most likely to keep finding when others flatten out.
2. Call Me Sassy (No.8) — $3.98 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 32.9% | Value: 0.80x
Why Honest mare who keeps putting in, but this is more of a place-and-prove-you-deserve-me assignment than a proper attack-the-pin sort of spot.
3. Divo (No.1) — $5.90 / $2.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 31.1% | Value: 1.04x
Why The drift is a nudge in the ribs, but the soft draw and the fitness edge keep him in the frame; he just needs the race to be run the right way rather than turning into a survival contest.
Roughie: Gong Girl (No.12) — $20.25 / $4.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.7% | Place: 27.2% | Value: 1.24x
Why Wide-ish and tricky, but if they go too hard early and the track lets them roll on, she's the one who can clatter into the minors late.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Prefer Diamonds, Celtic Sin and Naughty Nurse should ensure there's enough pressure for the run-on types to get involved
Punty read: Celebes Sea is the one with the proper "I'm here to win" look, but this is a race where the value sits a little wider in the placings. My Shareena maps well, Lady Pankhurst is the gritty old campaigner with a bit of bite back in the tank, and Bakerloo is the roughie who can absolutely fill a hole if the leaders start staring at each other at the bend. This is the sort of race that punters call "open" right before they get clipped by the obvious one.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Celebes Sea (No.2) — $1.85 / $1.22 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 32.6% | Place: 50.5% | Value: 0.79x
Why Won like a horse with more in hand, gets another lovely draw to work from, and if he repeats the last-start effort he's the bloke everyone's trying to catch.
2. My Shareena (No.7) — $6.35 / $2.05 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 15.0% | Place: 27.3% | Value: 1.25x
Why The map gives her a nice stalking run and the softer deck suits the sort of grinder who keeps coming when the speed horses are gasping.
3. Glastonbury Girl (No.6) — $4.75 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 26.3% | Value: 0.85x
Why Firming in the market and good enough on her day, but she's not the one I want to be leaning on when the race gets real.
Roughie: Bakerloo (No.3) — $15.75 / $3.50 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.9% | Place: 30.0% | Value: 1.21x
Why If the leaders cut each other up and the race turns into a late slugfest, he's the sort who can rattle home and spoil a few party pies.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Portofino and Tanglewood Jimmy should settle up in the running, with the tailwind straightening up giving the closers a fair shot
Punty read: Portofino has the right profile, but the drift says the market's not exactly lighting candles for him. Still, he's the class map horse and the stable's been pretty sharp. Tanglewood Jimmy is the solid each-way anchor, Auzstar can be one of those awkwardly honest types, and Lockdown Gamble is the old rough-and-tumble grinder who can run well if the race falls his way. This is a good race for a horse that can relax early and keep rolling late - think The Matrix, but with more mud and less leather.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Portofino (No.3) — $2.76 / $1.35 🏆 3RD
Bet $5.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$5.50
Prob 23.9% | Place: 42.2% | Value: 0.87x
Why Won the last two like a horse that knows where the winning post is, and if Brodie Loy gets a clean steer he still looks the most likely to outclass them.
2. Tanglewood Jimmy (No.9) — $2.89 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.04
Prob 16.0% | Place: 21.2% | Value: 0.61x
Why Honest as they come and the sort who will keep grinding even if the race doesn't unfold perfectly; just needs a touch of luck to cash the check.
3. Auzstar (No.2) — $8.80 / $2.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.29x
Why Fresh winner in good enough form to be dangerous again, but the price and map don't quite scream "hammer me".
Roughie: Lockdown Gamble (No.1) — $12.75 / $3.50 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 25.4% | Value: 1.49x
Why Big drift, yes, but if he gets to sit near the speed and the pace isn't murderous, he's the sort who can sneak into the finish and ruin the favourite's day.
Race type: Benchmark 68, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Murphilly and Monkhana should get the right kind of run, but the soft track and mile trip give the backmarkers a chance to get into the fight
Punty read: This is the race where the meeting can get a bit Shakespearean - plenty of moving parts, plenty of chances to find trouble, and the horse that keeps coming is often the one that wins. Murphilly's got the right sort of form and market push, Monkhana is the honest grinder, Rush Attack has the map to run well if things don't get messy, and Piccaderro is the sneaky one that could punish you if you ignore the drift and the soft setup. If you're going wide anywhere, it's here.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Murphilly (No.9) — $4.75 / $1.95 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.00 Each Way ($5.00W + $5.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 18.0% | Place: 27.7% | Value: 1.14x
Why Arrives in form, the stable has clearly had a crack at it, and the soft conditions with a genuine mile suit a horse who can finish with purpose.
2. Monkhana (No.3) — $4.95 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 34.3% | Value: 1.11x
Why The honest on-pacer gets every chance from the map and is the kind of horse you want in the mix when the race turns into a stamina test late.
3. Rush Attack (No.2) — $6.35 / $2.25 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 32.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why Has excuses last time and the fitter run helps, but he's relying on a few others not firing rather than just carting them into the ground.
Roughie: Hunter Bred (No.5) — $35.00 / $6.00 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.6% | Place: 21.6% | Value: 1.20x
Why Massive drift and a messy recent run scream caution, but if the race breaks down and the leaders go too hard, he's the bolter who can sneak into the frame at a silly price.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 9,12,6,11 / 1,8,9 / 1,7,13,16 / 1,5,9,7 (192 combos x $0.10 = $20.00) -- 10% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 8,1,10,11 / 2,7,6,1,3 / 3,9,2,1 / 3,2,9 (240 combos x $0.21 = $50.00) -- 21% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1 / 1 / 10 / 2 / 3 / 9 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Movie Night (Race 2, No.1)✗ — $1.94
2 - Aethelwulf (Race 3, No.1)✓ Won — $2.35
3 - Celebes Sea (Race 6, No.2)✗ — $1.85
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Newcastle's serving up a Soft 6 with the rail true and a sneaky tailwind up the straight, which means the swoopers get a decent crack at the last lick of the ice cream. It's not a pure front-running highway, but if you're buried too far back in the wrong race you'll be copping the old "why did I get on that?" treatment.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Newcastle, 900m to 1600m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play fair-ish, but closers get a nudge)
Weather: Sunny, 15°C, humidity 51%, wind 13km/h NW (watch for a longer sprint home and late swoopers)
Early lane guess: Best spots are still handy, but the straight tailwind gives backmarkers a bit of hope if the speed isn't cooked
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - Race 1 looks only moderate, Race 2 genuine, Race 3 crawls early, then the middle races are mostly tactical before Race 8 turns into a proper grind
Jockeys to follow:
Mitchell Bell, all over the good rides today, including key chances in Race 4, Race 5, Race 6 and Race 8
Keagan Latham, aboard plenty of live chances and knows how to nurse one through a midfield map
Rory Hutchings, pops up on fit, honest runners that can keep punching late on a soft deck
Stables to respect:
Bjorn Baker (3 runners), got a few honest types who are usually there to be winning
Matthew Smith (3 runners), live with fit, progressive sorts and a couple of horses that map to get their chance
Richard & Will Freedman (4 runners), bringing a few with upside, and they've got the sort of setup that can nick a midweek race without warning like a plot twist in a Tarantino flick
Punty's take:
This is a meeting where the shape matters more than the shiny price. Newcastle on a Soft 6 with a bit of breeze up the straight is a funny beast - the leaders can pinch one if they're left alone, but the last 150m can feel like trying to sprint through treacle wearing gumboots. That's why I'm leaning on horses that either map to control things or have the engine to keep coming when the sting's in the ground.
The market's been having a proper wobble in a few spots too. Some of the shorties are getting crunched for a reason, others are getting punted like they're the second coming of Winx and I'm not fully sold. You've got to separate the honest money from the panic money - otherwise you end up donating to the bagman and staring at the ceiling like it's the end of Casino.
The best bit? There are a couple of races where the map lines up beautifully for the right horse, and a couple where the drift tells you the punters aren't exactly singing from the same hymn sheet. That's where the value is hiding - not in trying to be the smartest bloke in the room, just in not doing something daft when the race shape is screaming at you.
What it means for you:
Play the meeting in layers. The first job is to get your spine right - the horses that have the right map, the right fitness, and a stable/jockey combo that's not here for a social run. Then protect yourself in the messy races where the prices don't match the uncertainty. If you're trying to bash every winner with a win bet, you'll cop a few faceplants today.
The smarter move is to lean into the races where the pattern is obvious and treat the chaos races like the pub pool table after midnight - you can win, sure, but you'd better have a plan. The quaddie and Big 6 are there for fun, but the real work is done in the races where the model and the map are singing the same tune. Stay alive in the early legs, don't get sucked into over-betting the shorties, and give the place market a fair look where the run-on horses are set to be flying late.