TOP PICKS ON THE MOVE — the picks on this card have shifted 8 times today on scratchings and market moves. Punty's staying nimble; treat this card with care.
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders helping the cause, Starzam and Lucky Fortuna have the pace numbers
Punty read:
This is one of those 1200m races where you want the horse that can either sit on the speed or pop up when the leaders are still in front at 400m. Lucky Fortuna looks like the natural front pressure play, and Convincebility has the "slow start excuse, then it works" vibe. Bon's Your Back is your main market favourite type, but I'm not ignoring the others who can hold position and find the gap.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Bon's Your Back (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 23.2% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.87x
Why If the pace stays honest, it should get a stalking trip and hit the line with something left.
2. Time To Baca (No.6) — $4.80 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.2% | Place: 38.1% | Value: 1.27x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Lucky Fortuna (No.8) — $3.50 / $1.82 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.83x
Why It's leading type so it can steal it, but with only 2 places paying, you need the exact finish for value.
Roughie: The Final Word (No.7) — $10.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 1.03x
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Texture is the speed weapon, Anecdotal presses, wide chaos is the danger
Punty read:
Texture is the obvious story, it's finding the front and it's hard to ignore on Good. But I'm not letting it be the whole race, because Anecdotal looks like the value play that might just do the perfect "press, conserve, then pounce" routine. Si Senora is also in the mix, the sort that can run into the frame if the leaders don't sprint themselves into submission.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Texture (No.7) — $2.10 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$11.55
Prob 26.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.70x
Why On this tempo it should get a soft run to hit the top and keep powering.
2. Anecdotal (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 60.8% | Value: 1.42x
Why A real chance — but at $2.35 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Si Senora (No.13) — $9.00 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 58.8% | Value: 1.46x
Why Perfect "run on and get a slice" type, especially with the pace honest.
Roughie: Miami Baby (No.14) — $11.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.24x
Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, Cavern on the inside, Down The Wicket handy, Littlebourkestreet midfield with sprint fuel
Punty read:
This is a sprint where the "wrong place" can cook you. Littlebourkestreet and Down The Wicket are the sort that can actually sit close and hit through the line, and Cavern's barrier 1 gives it a very clear plan, even if it has to stalk instead of lead. Jumping Power Two is a live speed threat too, but it's the sort of race where the front can get swamped if the tempo truly is hot.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Littlebourkestreet (No.5) — $1.95 / $1.09 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 33.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.83x
Why It's built for this level on Good, and it should get into that pocket where sprint horses love.
2. Cavern (No.4) — $2.80 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why A real chance — but at $1.20 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Down The Wicket (No.3) — $7.50 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 57.7% | Value: 1.21x
Why It's got the runstyle to grab a top spot if the pace keeps moving, and it's dangerous late.
Roughie: Jumping Power Two (No.1) — $14.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.09x
Race type: Open, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Shirshov on-pace, Zourata needs the right run, rail True means the straight is everything
Punty read:
1000m is a knife fight. Shirshov looks like the one that can actually take the race by the throat, it's on the speed and it knows how to finish. Zourata's there for the upset if it finds position early, and Rewards And More has the stalking profile too. Flying Annie is the outside threat but this is the sort of sprint where you need a lane and a moment.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Shirshov (No.9) — $2.25 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 31.1% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.87x
Why It maps to be prominent on-pace, and on Good with rail True it can land the killer blows late.
2. Arizona Activist (No.4) — $4.40 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.4% | Place: 49.8% | Value: 1.23x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Zourata (No.3) — $5.50 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.6% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why Needs everything to go right and it might not get that kind of run.
Roughie: Flying Annie (No.8) — $9.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 0.95x
Why For a roughie it needs a miracle lane, otherwise 1000m is cruel.
Race type: Handicap, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Biden Time and Grinzinger Tundra on the map, back markers need a miracle late split
Punty read:
1600m on Good is where the steady types can still win because the leaders don't always sprint each other into dust. Biden Time is drawn to get that proper run and has the profile that holds up through the grind. Faberge Tzar and Barocco Bar are the value threats if the race turns into a tempo contest, but if Biden Time stays comfortable, it's hard to beat.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Biden Time (No.1) — $1.80 / $1.15 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 29.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.70x
Why Likely to sit in the right pocket and wear the race down, especially with the tempo moderate.
2. Faberge Tzar (No.5) — $8.00 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 66.3% | Value: 1.29x
Why A real chance — but at $2.60 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Merimbula (No.2) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.24x
Roughie: Rampazetto (No.3) — $12.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.19x
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, leaders vulnerable late, backmarkers can squeeze through if gaps appear
Punty read:
This one's set up for the horses that can travel and then snap into the clear. Stormfront is the favourite for a reason, it's got the on-pace option and should be there when the field starts to stretch. Ichiban is right there as the danger if it can hold its position. Rossanado is the classier "place and pray" type, but the run to the line matters, slow tempo can turn into a queue.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Stormfront (No.4) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 23.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.45x
Why Slow tempo suits it, it should get the right rhythm and then strike in the straight.
2. Wine Barron (No.14) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 14.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.92x
3. Rossanado (No.12) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.83x
Why Could land in the money, but I'm sticking to the clearer win-and-place path.
Roughie: Hettinger (No.13) — $11.00 / $3.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.11x
Race type: Benchmark 62, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, Auxiliary and Montjuic Magic are the tempo answers, Tellez could fill a gap
Punty read:
Slow 1300m makes the "sit close, then hit" plans the boss. Montjuic Magic and Auxiliary look like they've got the tactical speed to keep their options open. The race shape probably rewards a horse that can hold position without getting stranded too far back. Tellez looks like the value for a place, but I'm chasing the two main engines for the win.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Montjuic Magic (No.5) — $2.00 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.00
Prob 30.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.80x
Why It's on the right part of the speed map and slow tempo means it doesn't have to burn early.
2. Auxiliary (No.1) — $3.00 / $1.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Tellez (No.7) — $8.00 / $2.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.20x
Why It's capable, just looks like a riskier place play with fewer margin for error.
Roughie: Itwasonlyakiss (No.8) — $10.00 / $2.55 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.21x
Race type: Handicap, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Cavendish and Hammurabi midfield, If I Was You and Pirate are the spicy outsiders
Punty read:
This is a proper tempo race, and with rail True the straight is going to be where winners cash in. Cavendish is the kind that can sit within striking distance and then hit through when the leaders start to tire. Stomp'em is right there as the other pace-aligned danger, and Hammurabi is the sneaky one that's live for a slice if it gets clean air.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Cavendish (No.1) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 19.2% | Place: 64.1% | Value: 1.33x
Why It's matching the pace picture and can get a perfect run to stay in range, then lift.
2. Stomp'em (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.82 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.2% | Place: 65.9% | Value: 1.07x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Hammurabi (No.8) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why Gets a chance if there's traffic chaos, but it's not my main insurance.
Roughie: I Loverain (No.10) — $9.50 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 1.32x
Why Needs the leaders to do some work, then it runs into the money when the pace spreads them.
Race type: Handicap, 2050m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, long run to the line, Tennessee Whiskey and Vanguard Legend can keep pressure on
Punty read:
2050m is where patience pays and where the "still in it at 400m" types win. Bollon is shorter-priced and deserves respect, but I'm looking for the ones that keep coming. Garrix is a value danger if it finds the right spot in the run, and Vanguard Legend has the "stays in the hunt" profile too. Tennessee Whiskey is the roughie that can make the finish interesting if the tempo lets it roll.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Garrix (No.11) — $4.60 / $1.85 🏆 11TH
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 17.0% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why Midfield runner who can hold position for a long time, then keep grinding late.
2. Bollon (No.4) — $3.40 / $1.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.67x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Vanguard Legend (No.2) — $8.50 / $2.70 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.1% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.27x
Why If it lands in that second half of the field and finds running room, it's dangerous.
Roughie: Tennessee Whiskey (No.8) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.19x
Why It's the sort that can keep rolling if the leaders don't sprint away and leave it with no rhythm.
Race type: Open, 2050m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, Casino Seventeen and others press mid, Leveraged Buyout is the value lead-in
Punty read:
Big Cup races are funny beasts. Slow tempo means the back half of the field can still show up if the leaders don't put them away, and this one looks like it'll be a tactical grind. Leveraged Buyout looks like the one with the class and the right running style to hit the line. Stormageddon is the danger if it gets the right trip and doesn't get trapped. Wolfburn is next level too, it can sprint if it gets a clean angle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.50 pool)
1. Leveraged Buyout (No.9) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 10TH
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 20.5% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.38x
Why It maps as the best "grind then go" type for a slow 2050, and it should get its chance.
2. Stormageddon (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.72 🏆 7TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 12.2% | Place: 29.5% | Value: 0.58x
Why Short enough to be honest for the placings, and if the race stays slow it's right there at the end.
3. Rematch (No.11) — $8.00 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why It's capable of running on, but I'm not overspending on the "maybe" at this grade.
Roughie: Wolfburn (No.10) — $9.00 / $2.90 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.17x
Why Needs the gaps and needs the leaders to get out of its way, otherwise it's too much work late.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,4,1 / 9,3,7 / 1,5,6 / 4,7,13 (81 combos x $0.25 = $20.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,5,7 / 8,2,1,10 / 11,4,2,8 / 9,10,2,11 (192 combos x $0.14 = $25.92) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1 / 4 / 1 / 1 / 11 / 9 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Littlebourkestreet (Race 3, No.5)✗ — $1.95
2 - Shirshov (Race 4, No.9) — $2.25
3 - Montjuic Magic (Race 7, No.5)✓ Won — $2.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Fannie Bay today is one of those meetings where the speed looks safe until you blink, then some bastard from the back turns up like Jason Bourne. Rail's True, track's Good, no drama from the weather, so if you're going to be brave, be brave early. Otherwise you're just donating money to the sweepstake gods.
2-3 things I'm banking on before we even start:
- The card is pace shaped. When horses map to the front on Good, you chase less, you win more. Easy.
- Value hides in places you'd ignore at the TAB counter. That means I'm looking for the second tier that still gets cover and a crack at the leaders.
- Big day for Big 3 to set the tone, then we hit the multi spine and let the quaddies do their chaotic little jobs.
Big 3 spine is locked, and it's a "three different races, three different flavours" build. No ego picks, just the horses I want in my betting slips.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Fannie Bay, 1000m-2050m card
Rail: True
Official going: Good (expected to play True to form, fastish lanes, leaders can hang around)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 29°C, humidity 63%, gusts 31.5km/h (watch for slightly sharper heat, but no wet-track nonsense)
Early lane guess: Quaddie lanes later, but I'm sniffing speed early
Tempo profile: Pace is genuine through the sprints, then it stretches out to a more measured grind in the middle trips
Jockeys to follow:
Hannah Le Blanc: smart aboard the on pace types, loves a position run
Jarrod Todd: gets them moving at the right time, particularly when the tempo's honest
Dakota-Lee Gillett: aggressive speed lines, the sort that makes the front end pay its rent
Stables to respect:
G Clarke (9 runners): tracks conditions fit and the team keeps arriving with punch
Ms K Petrick (6 runners): often sends horses out like they've got instructions, and it usually works
D Leech (4 runners): stable pushes for the right run, and they don't mind taking the sting out of a race
Punty's take:
This is a meeting where Good means "ride the map, not the vibes". When the leaders have room and don't get trapped three wide, they keep doing their job right to the line. The rail being True also tightens up the finishing lanes, so those wide, held-up runs are going to get punished.
I like the races where the speed profile matches the horse profile. Race 5 sets up as a proper through-the-middle affair, Race 4 is all about the late sprint into the line, and Race 7 is the sort of 1300m where the front can be a weapon. I'm not chasing long odds in chaos races unless there's a story. Today, the stories are there.
What it means for you:
Bet the races where your runner can control the run, not just "hope they get a gap". For early races, I'm happy to take the Place angle when the horse is likely to hold a spot. For the winners, I want my Big 3 types first.
If you're building a ticket, keep it simple early, then let the lanes open up later. The quaddies and Big 6 are for when you've done your homework and you've got coverage where it's needed, not coverage where you just feel lucky. This is how you avoid the "I had them, they checked, game over" heartbreak.