Saturday, 03 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Super Patch sets the early rhythm
Punty read: Scotty (No.2) is the best "get position, keep it simple" play here. With a Soft 7 and rain threat, you want the horse that doesn't need a perfect run to be effective. The market's got Scotty as the centre of the universe, which makes sense, but the real punter move is recognising how Fleurs Star and Marie Laveau can slide into that top three when races get slippery. If the track gets deeper, the wide chaos increases, so the ones who can stay close without burning petrol are your mates.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Concurrence (No.11) — $4.00 / $1.75 SCR
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net +$0.00
Prob 21.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.08x
2. Scotty (No.2) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.69x
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Marie Laveau (No.14) — $7.50 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 26.5% | Value: 0.91x
Why She's dangerous late, but the win route isn't as clean as the top two on a Soft 7.
Roughie: Callmehoward (No.7) — $12.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.97x
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Wonderboy is the early show
Punty read: This is a straight-up "who rolls through Soft the smoothest" race. Meloni (No.4) is the logical engine of the event, drawn where she can keep finding rhythm, and the class difference is the kind that shows up in these conditions. Legacy (No.8) has the type of place profile you can't ignore, but the top-end win story is Meloni's to lose. If On Shaw (No.7) jumps and runs, he can look brilliant, then fade when the rain gives the track a wet handshake.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Meloni (No.4) — $2.40 / $1.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$11.90
Prob 22.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.75x
Why The pace map suits, and the soft-ground profile plus early racing intent makes her hard to snuff out.
2. Legacy (No.8) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.43x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Wonderboy (No.3) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.12x
Why Competitive, but I'd rather back the horses with a cleaner race story through the wet.
Roughie: On Shaw (No.7) — $15.00 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.16x
Why He can be live on the right run, but we're not here to donate coin to a hard-to-win pattern.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, short course = decisions fast
Punty read: 1200m on Soft 7 is basically a sprint race in disguise. Truly Divine (No.11) has the cleanest "you can see it" story, and the fact she's going into the race as the favourite isn't just market noise. Diplomatic and Joyful Anna look like they'll be in the mix if there's early pressure, but the track will punish late movers who start too deep and wide. If it turns into a messy scramble, the horse that's already travelled through their debut issues and keeps position becomes the one.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. Truly Divine (No.11) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — Cashed, net -$0.47
Prob 19.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.17x
Why Fits the short-course Soft tempo, and she looks like she's got the easiest path to being in the right spot when it matters.
2. Noverre Belle (No.12) — $3.80 / $1.70 SCR
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.81x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Ain't It Fun (No.5) — $8.00 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 24.2% | Value: 1.38x
Roughie: Woodbegood (No.15) — $12.00 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.5% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.98x
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, tight turn = lane control matters
Punty read: This race feels like it's about who stays composed through the bend. Classy Brahma (No.7) is the standout for a reason, and the wet-track profile plus her ability to hold a position gives her a strong floor. Portrush (No.5) and Too Sweet (No.10) can pressure, but the big danger is the rain turning the inside into a trap. Brigit is the roughie-type if you're chasing a higher dividend, but today I'm going with the horse that's already built for the job.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)
1. Classy Brahma (No.7) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 16.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.15x
Why Soft suits, and she gives you the best chance of being there on the fence when the scrimmage hits.
2. Intention (No.1) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 1.38x
Why A real chance — but at $3.30 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Fancypants (No.2) — $7.45 / $2.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.88x
Roughie: Portrush (No.5) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 28.3% | Value: 1.24x
Why Solid, but the win route needs everything to go perfectly.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, leaders can set it up to sprint off the bend
Punty read: Belles Boom (No.3) is the kind of horse that can stalk and pounce through the wet, especially when the race shape is honest. Empirical (No.18) has value for place and could lift into the first four if the middle of the field doesn't get bogged early. Sperlari (No.15) is live enough to take a piece, but I'm not going hunting for the upset while Belles Boom is sitting there ready to do the job.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)
1. Belles Boom (No.3) — $5.40 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Each Way ($3.25W + $3.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$18.04
Prob 14.9% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.10x
Why Pace is genuine, which helps her timing, and Soft 7 won't totally erase her advantage.
2. Myakkabelle (No.12) — $8.15 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.65x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Empirical (No.18) — $7.80 / $2.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why Money's screaming value, but win is a little too wild for me today.
Roughie: Our Akashinga (No.13) — $9.70 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 1.16x
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, chances to stalk and strike
Punty read: Girl Talk (No.4) is the day's "this is why you're here" play. On Soft 7, she's got the right blend of timing and staying power, and Each Way is the sensible way to play a race where chaos can still creep in. Qali Al Farrasha is dangerous, but he's not the one I want to rely on for the wet-day win scenario. Circus Dancer is tempting, but she's been a bit of a coin-flip proposition and today I'd rather keep my risk where it pays.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Qali Al Farrasha (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$45.00
Prob 27.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.23x
Why Solid, but not the exact win value I want with rain risk in the air.
2. Circus Dancer (No.10) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Girl Talk (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.00x
Why Soft-ground suited, and she's the kind of horse that stays classy under pressure, not panic.
Roughie: Connello (No.5) — $14.00 / $3.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.93x
Race type: Open, 2100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, longer grind where position matters
Punty read: Malachy (No.10) is the honest play in the cup-style slog. Over 2100m on Soft, the ability to keep momentum matters more than flashy last-200m claims. Cheval De Foudre and Coney Island can threaten if they find the clear air, but they rely on race manners. Tobias is the sort of roughie that can clout you if the map opens, but for today, Malachy is the one who can keep turning up and not get lost in the wet.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Malachy (No.10) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 17.4% | Place: 41.8% | Value: 0.81x
Why 2100m Soft favours steady performers, and Malachy's got the right grind profile.
2. Cheval De Foudre (No.5) — $6.35 / $2.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.27x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Coney Island (No.15) — $12.00 / $3.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.48x
Why Great roughie energy, but win is still a stretch with how the race can string out on Soft.
Roughie: Tobias (No.12) — $14.75 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.27x
Why If the field fractures, he's live, but we're not going to turn today into a prayer circle.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 2100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, staying power wins with rain involved
Punty read: Breadwinner (No.9) is the watch-and-act for me. At this trip on Soft, the horse that can hold its position and keep working without falling in a bog lane has the best chance to be there at the line. Tai and Leprekhan are the kind of runners who can flash in the straight but need the run. Jack In The Box is the roughie-style chance if the pace collapses and the track opens up, but the bet structure is Breadwinner's to grab.
Top 3 + Roughie ($4.00 pool)
1. Breadwinner (No.9) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$20.00
Prob 15.2% | Place: 40.8% | Value: 0.95x
Why Decent win profile for a Soft 2100m, and he's not reliant on fireworks, just good running.
2. Tai (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.05x
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Leprekhan (No.6) — $7.50 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.09x
Why Solid, but I'm keeping the ticket clean, not spreading across too many Soft-landmines.
Roughie: Jack In The Box (No.3) — $11.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.45x
Why He's the danger man if things go his way early, but Breadwinner is the anchor tonight.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 14,2,8,13 / 4,8,7,2 / 11,1,8,3 / 7,5,10,17 (256 combos x $0.30 = $76.80) -- 30% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,18,6,12 / 4,10,9,2 / 10,5,15,12 / 9,4,3,6 (256 combos x $0.21 = $54.00) -- 21% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11,1,14,10 / 7,5,10,11 / 3,18,6,12 / 4,10,1,9 / 10,5,15,12 / 9,4,3,6 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Concurrence (Race 1, No.11) — $4.00
2 - Meloni (Race 2, No.4)✓ Won — $2.38
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hawera on a Soft 7 with the rain hanging around like a bloke who says he'll 'just have one more' and then drains the minibar, punting today's got that delicious slippery edge. Pace looks genuine early across the card, but the track will decide who can keep a straight line and who turns into a drunk shopping trolley by the turn.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 7, 1200m-2100m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play Cushioning, power horses slightly favoured)
Weather: Raining, watch for rain risk lapping races 1 to 8 (big 45%+ callouts late on the program)
Early lane guess: Rail to get favoured, but with True rails and Soft, the 'middle to near-rail' kind of runs safer
Tempo profile: Pace is set up to be usable early, with leaders getting first crack but the closers can still mow down late if they don't get stuck in muck
Jockeys to follow:
Lisa Allpress: Big local production, and she keeps landing with the right horses at the right time
Samantha Collett: Tricky-race rider, good at navigating wet-track chaos and staying involved
Lily Sutherland: Strong place potential and she's been popping into the finish in these sorts of conditions
Stables to respect:
G H Sharrock (10 runners): Sharp with maiden types, and the track patterns suit his style of bringing them in ready
S Nickalls (2 runners): When he's got one spotted, he's not messing around, especially on soft surfaces
A W Pike (2 runners): Consistency in these company types, and he loves getting value while everyone's chasing the obvious
Punty's take: This Soft 7 at Hawera is the sort of surface where timing matters more than ego. If the leaders can hold their lanes and not have to thread through tired bog, they'll bank lengths. But if the rain comes in properly, the race shapes can flip fast, and the horses that travel balanced become the real deal.
My job is to find the ones that don't need luck. Race 1 has a short-price story for Scotty, but the value route also has teeth with the right runners in the mix. Then we go straight into the Bm action where Meloni in Race 2 looks like the kind of horse that just keeps rolling through soft ground.
By the time we hit the big open races, you want to be on horses that can hold position without getting bullied wide, because in the rain, 'wide' is basically a synonym for 'extra distance' and 'extra chances to get checked'.
What it means for you: Keep your bets simple early, then layer in the chaos where the map and the market both hint there's something real underneath the drift. Your aggressive areas today are Race 1 and Race 2, because they line up with a usable tempo and horses that are already set up to survive the Soft 7 grind.
For the bigger races, I'm not chasing every longshot. I'm backing horses that have a clean lane path and can either go forward or sit close enough to pounce. If the rain deepens, you can actually upgrade the 'place' mindset in those mid-card events.