Tuesday, 23 June 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Galactic Force and Anna Karenina are the ones the map says to work against, while Capone's the sneaky one from barrier 1 if he jumps cleanly.
Punty read: This is a race where the favourite has the right numbers but not the sort of price that makes you throw the toaster at the wall. Galactic Force has been knocking on the door, and the market's had a decent sniff, but the tempo is so sedate that one bad stride or one bit of baulked room could turn it into a dogfight. Capone's the one with the big market push and the handy gate, that's no accident when the race looks like a crawl early. Ole Got Swagger has some roughie flavour if they stack them up late, but he's going to need the race to fall apart like a dodgy folding chair.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.50 pool)
1. Galactic Force (No.2) — $1.67 / $1.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$5.85
Prob 44.5% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why He's the one with the form line that keeps holding together, and the market is telling you he's the right sort of favourite even if he's not a charity mug. Maps midfield, but with this tempo he should get every chance to grind into it.
2. Yes Arnie (No.4) — $4.80 / $1.37 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.00
Prob 17.1% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.65x
Why He's been around the mark often enough and should get a nice enough run without doing much early work. Not a win bloke for mine, but he's the sort that can keep rolling into the placings while others are busy mucking around.
3. Capone (No.1) — $5.00 / $1.37 🏆 4TH
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Prob 15.9% | Place: 60.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why Massive market push for a reason, he was hampered last start and now lands the inside marble. If he steps and holds a spot, he's the sort that can pinch a slice of this.
Roughie: Anna Karenina (No.5) — $17.00 / $3.20 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.78x
Why First-up with the gear tsunami, and if the blinkers sharpen her up she can improve sharply, but she's a watch-first rather than a wallet-first play.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Hellfighter and The Prospect are on the map's wrong side a touch, while Master Johnny looks the one likely to get the clearest first run.
Punty read: This is a bit of a merchant race, plenty of them want a slice, but the pace won't gift anyone anything. Hellfighter has been backed like the stable's gone to the bar and found a bag of cash under the counter, and that's fair enough with the excuses last time and the blinkers of confidence from the market. Master Johnny is the handy one for me because the map says he can sit close and not have to pretend he's a stayer. Royal Princess is short enough in the market but the place price has gone skinny, so I'm not rushing to throw more chips at that table. The Prospect is the sneaky one if the big firmer finally strings it together, but he's more "exotic squiz" than "full send".
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Hellfighter (No.1) — $3.25 / $1.30 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 32.6% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.25x
Why Big market respect, last-start excuses, and he's got the sort of profile that says the stable thinks this is his race. Even with a little map niggle, he's the one they'll have to beat.
2. Royal Princess (No.10) — $2.58 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.4% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 0.97x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Master Johnny (No.3) — $3.85 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 19.7% | Place: 95.0% | Value: 0.65x
Why Maps to get every possible favour, nice gate, tactical enough, and a stable/jockey combo that can land the right spot without burning fuel.
Roughie: Grey Belief (No.8) — $16.75 / $3.40 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.78x
Why Backed a touch, but you'd want the race to go pear-shaped and the middle of the field to clatter for him to become relevant.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo; State Secret is the one likely to do the donkey work, while He's Got Grunt has the run of the race in the speed matrix.
Punty read: This is the first real "proper race" on the card. They should actually go at it, which means Movie Night gets his chance to pounce and Stardust Memories can sit in the pocket like he's waiting for the final scene in a crime thriller. State Secret will make sure it's not a picnic, but the race shape looks tailor-made for something with a turn of foot rather than a plodder. Xena's Conquest and He's Got Grunt are the sort of rough shapes you'd throw into exotics if you were feeling sneaky, but the day-to-day punter should be focused on the two at the top.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Movie Night (No.2) — $2.02 / $1.25 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 44.5% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.10x
Why The genuine tempo is the key, he gets the race shape he wants, and the form says he's been knocking hard enough to deserve favourite status.
2. Stardust Memories (No.10) — $2.31 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.8% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.04x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. State Secret (No.1) — $5.40 / $2.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.90x
Why He's the pace setter and that's always dangerous, but this looks more like a horse that can keep the others honest than blow them away.
Roughie: Xena's Conquest (No.6) — $18.25 / $4.60 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.9% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 1.01x
Why Little or no form to go on, so you're relying on race shape and hope. If the leaders overdo it, he's the sort that can sneak into the frame late.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1000m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Internal Affairs and Skystone look the likely shape-makers, and from barrier 1 Internal Affairs should get the softest run of the lot.
Punty read: This is a classic short-course maiden where the bloke in front can get cheap kicks if nobody wants to press the issue. Internal Affairs has the dream setup, inside gate, market respect, and enough tactical speed to make the others chase. Skystone has the gear changes and the market nod, but he's one of those that needs to do it right early or he'll be cursing the day from the back of the truck. Radicals has enough gate and speed to be a nuisance if the favourite misses the jump. Hy is the one that can get a fair run but he's blowing in the market like he's forgotten where the course is.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Internal Affairs (No.9) — $1.83 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.45
Prob 43.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.01x
Why Barrier 1, market support, and enough speed to sit in the right part of the race. If he jumps cleanly, he'll be very hard to run past.
2. Skystone (No.11) — $2.33 / $1.30 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.2% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 0.89x
Why A real chance — but at $1.30 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Radicals (No.8) — $9.80 / $3.30 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.77x
Why The last-start place keeps him in the conversation, and if the race turns into a tactical sit-and-sprint he's not the worst.
Roughie: Majestic Legend (No.6) — $21.50 / $5.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 25.5% | Value: 0.86x
Why Honest enough and often around the money, but he's been the bridesmaid a few too many times to go in hard.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; this is a proper open bunch where Pentagon wants the front-end say, but there's enough muck around him to make the finish a bit of a lottery.
Punty read: Welcome to the chaos factory. Pentagon has been smashed in the market like someone found the stable's WhatsApp group, and that makes sense because he maps to control things from the inside. But the race itself is a messy little beast, Inception can get the right run, I've Bean Tryin' has the roughie's profile to hang around for a cheque, and Prefer Diamonds is the sort of honest grinder that could jump into the exotics if the pace gets weird. This is exactly the sort of race where you don't want to be overcomplicated; pick the horses with a path and let the rest of the circus sort itself out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Inception (No.10) — $5.40 / $1.85 🏆 10TH
Bet $11.50 Each Way ($5.75W + $5.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 15.4% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.05x
Why If he gets the right spot stalking the speed, he's the one who can turn the screws late. Not a superstar job, but a sensible each-way anchor in a race that could get messy.
2. Squeezebox (No.5) — $6.90 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.30x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. I've Bean Tryin' (No.1) — $7.80 / $2.30 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 13.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.34x
Why The inside draw and the honest profile make him dangerous if the leaders stall. He's the sort you back to be there at the end, not to light the place up early.
Roughie: Prefer Diamonds (No.9) — $9.20 / $2.60 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.33x
Why The numbers say he's a live one, but the roughie label here is more about race shape than romance, he'll need the right tempo and a bit of luck to get into the fight.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo; Divo and Kosrae are the leaders, and this is the race where the speed map could absolutely lock the backmarkers out if they're not careful.
Punty read: This is the one where the map can become a weapon. Divo and Kosrae should give this a decent shake from the front, and if they get to loaf for a bit then the swoopers are in trouble. That's why Leave No Doubt is the sneaky madness horse, huge drift, but if you're hunting a place getter with a map that can work late, he's got a weird little path to being around the money. Iron Fury is the honest type in the middle, while Up The Front and Donwon are the sort you keep in the mix if you're drawing a wider net than a kangaroo at dusk.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.50 pool)
1. Divo (No.2) — $6.25 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet $11.00 Each Way ($5.50W + $5.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$0.82
Prob 13.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.11x
Why The speed map loves him, the yard has got him ready, and if he gets across cleanly he can make this a very hard chase.
2. Escargoes (No.5) — $2.21 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.39x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Leave No Doubt (No.1) — $32.00 / $5.50 🏆 11TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 4.7% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.94x
Why Massive drift, but the place profile is there and the old blinker switch can sharpen him up. If the leaders go too hard, he's the weird one that can sneak into the finish from nowhere.
Roughie: Kosrae (No.7) — $11.50 / $3.30 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.60x
Why On-speed and honest, so if Divo doesn't get it all his own way this bloke is right in the firing line.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo; Abandonment and Noble One are the disadvantaged ones on the map, which means the race could get weird if nobody wants to make a proper move.
Punty read: This is a grimy little staying race where patience matters more than swagger. Sheeza Diva has been backed out and then drifted back like the market can't decide whether it's had enough coffee, but the horse still profiles as a proper player if she lands somewhere handy. The Iron Star and Vondel are the attractive ones because they've got the right profile for this sort of grind, honest types, capable jockeys, and enough map advantage to avoid having to climb a mountain late. Abandonment is the classy-ish name in the field, but he's a backmarker in a race that may not be run to suit, so he's one for the exotics unless you're feeling brave.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Sheeza Diva (No.13) — $5.90 / $2.20 🏆 10TH
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 15.4% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 1.18x
Why The drift is annoying, but not fatal. She's the classier feel in the race and if she settles anywhere near the speed, she can punch through when the others start gasping.
2. The Iron Star (No.6) — $8.80 / $2.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.60x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Vondel (No.14) — $7.35 / $2.40 🏆 5TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 14.0% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.34x
Why The place profile is sticky and the tactical setup suits. He's not a flashy win ticket, but he's the sort that keeps the book from falling apart.
Roughie: Five Of A Kind (No.7) — $9.05 / $2.90 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.35x
Why Could land in the first wave and stay there, but the race shape makes him more of a lurker than a killer.
Race type: BENCHMARK 64, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine tempo; Purple Rose looks the one likely to get the lead, and Whoa Nellie should get the sort of trail that makes punters lick their lips.
Punty read: End of the card and it's a proper little dash. Whoa Nellie is the one with the best blend of form and map, he can sit in the right spot and let the race come to him. Yachiyo is the place horse who can sneak into the finish if the leaders cut at each other, while Purple Rose has been backed like the stable got an early payout from the pokies and wants to keep the good times rolling. Panic is the spicy one at a bit of a number, and if they go too hot early he's the one that can swoop out of the pack like he's in the final lap of Days of Thunder.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Whoa Nellie (No.7) — $3.38 / $1.35 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 31.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.39x
Why Best mix of form, map and market respect in the race. If they roll along genuinely, he's the one I want punching through at the right time.
2. Yachiyo (No.8) — $6.35 / $2.10 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 13.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.13x
Why Maps to get a fair run and should be strong late if the speed is honest. Not a flashy win machine, but a very usable place play.
3. Call Me Sassy (No.13) — $2.49 / $1.25 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.44x
Why Short enough in the market but not the right sort of place profile for me. Better horses to trust here.
Roughie: Panic (No.5) — $12.25 / $3.10 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.90x
Why If the speed gets serious and the leaders overdo it, he's the sort that can sweep home and wreck a few tidy tickets.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,4,1 / 1,10,3 / 2,10,1 / 9,11,8 (81 combos x $0.25 = $20.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10,5,1,9 / 5,2,7 / 6,14,13,7 / 7,8,13,17,5 (240 combos x $0.13 = $32.00) -- 13% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2 / 9 / 10 / 2 / 13 / 7 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Galactic Force (Race 1, No.2)✓ Won — $1.67
2 - Movie Night (Race 3, No.2)✗ — $2.02
3 - Internal Affairs (Race 4, No.9)✓ Won — $1.83
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hawkesbury's on a Soft 5 with the rail nudged in and a proper crosswind trying to mug the place; it's the sort of card where the maps matter, the market throws a few punches, and one or two of these maidens can either look like champions or absolute bloody impostors in the space of 200 metres.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Hawkesbury, 1000m-1800m card
Rail: +2m 1100m-450m, True Remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play fair early, with on-speed runners getting first crack if they don't overcook it)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 15°C, humidity 56%, wind 22km/h W (watch for gusts and a bit of sting in the straight)
Early lane guess: Slightly handy to inside/middle lanes early, but don't bet the farm on a fence bias with this wind
Tempo profile: A couple of crawl-and-sprint affairs up front, then the card opens right up through the middle and late legs
Jockeys to follow:
Tim Clark, keeps landing on the right kind of runners and gets the call on a few well-backed hopes.
Tyler Schiller, great bloke to have aboard when the map matters; he's on key runners in R4, R7 and R8.
Tommy Berry, no stranger to a big day steer, and he's sitting on a few that can go forward or stalk.
Stables to respect:
Nathan Doyle (3 runners), Hellfighter, Blessed Express and Divo all have the look of live, well-placed runners.
Brad Widdup (3 runners), Yes Arnie, Royal Princess and Vondel are all in the mix and the market's keeping an eye on the yard.
G Waterhouse & A Bott (3 runners), Movie Night, State Secret and Stardust Memories bring class and a touch of polish.
Punty's take:
This meeting starts with a few races that look like they've been ironed flat, but don't let that fool you, Hawkesbury on a Soft 5 with a bit of wind can still spit out a surprise if the leaders get greedy. R1, R2, R3 and R4 are mostly about map, manners and who gets the first sniff of air; that's where the shorties live, and where you either bank a result or burn a bit of daylight trying to be clever like a bloke who's just discovered PokerStars.
Then the back end turns into proper Punty territory: Race 5 is a chaos stew, Race 6 has the speed map front and centre, Race 7 is a stayer's muddle with a few honest types, and Race 8 should be run at a clip with the right horse getting the perfect trail. This isn't a meeting to go full action-hero on every leg; it's more The Godfather than Fast & Furious, keep your best material for the races where the picture is clear, and don't force a roughie just because you're feeling cute.
What it means for you:
I'd be playing this card in two gears. First gear is the bankers: Races 3 and 4 should be treated like the clean end of the day, and Races 1 and 2 are the sort where the market's got a fair old grip on the main chances. If you're looking to protect the bank, this is where you keep it tidy and let the form do the work.
Second gear is where the fun starts, Races 5 to 8 are where you either build a nice multi-lane ticket or sit back and watch the chaos unfold with a cold one. Race 6 is the sneaky key: if Divo and Kosrae control it, the race shape can get a bit brutal for the swoopers. Race 7 is wide open enough to make you sweat, and Race 8 looks like the one where the right sort of on-speed horse can pinch the race while the rest are still tying their shoelaces. Don't get sucked into every drift or steam like a mug in the TAB queue; play the map, play the stable intent, and keep the ammo for the right spots.