Tuesday, 11 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: C1, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with a couple of pace advantaged types, so positioning into the run home is everything.
Punty read: This is your "can the leaders keep the lights on" race. Grafton Street (No.1) is the market favourite for a reason, but here's the spicy bit, Pierro Lad and Don's Party are both the type to hang around and then pick at you late if the tempo gets annoying. Vasala is a big price with speed, and when Soft 5 gets sticky, sometimes the back half doesn't finish as fast as the early part. Derry City Felix is the roughie type, the speed might not be as clean as it looks, and if that happens he's the one who swoops late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Grafton Street (No.1) — $2.73 / $1.57 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 32.2% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.07x
Why The favourite with the right setup, and the track should reward a horse that can hold a spot without needing everything to go perfect.
2. Pierro Lad (No.2) — $3.15 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.0% | Place: 19.2% | Value: 0.85x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Don's Party (No.3) — $4.70 / $2.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 19.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why He can threaten for a place, but on a track like this the market's telling you where the real value band is.
Roughie: Derry City Felix (No.5) — $10.50 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.99x
Why The path is simple, if the speed collapses and runners start hitting the wall, he's the one who can slingshot late.
Race type: Maiden, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo with a few pace advantaged runners, but a Soft 5 means you need to actually keep travelling.
Punty read: Rapid Revenue (No.5) is the horse they want you to back, and honestly I get it. Soft 5 punishes horses that get too far back and have to do extra work, so if she's sitting on the right part of the speed, she can keep getting into the race. Buongiorno (No.2) is the live threat, and Rouladen (No.6) is there to pick up pieces if the pace sets up oddly. Blazing Future (No.1) looks like a value play, but if she's always chasing the race rather than running it, maiden races punish that fast.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Rapid Revenue (No.5) — $2.08 / $1.13 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$16.20
Prob 38.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why She's the class and the profile for a maiden, and the tempo suits a horse that can stay in range without getting bullied by the wet.
2. Buongiorno (No.2) — $5.85 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.75
Prob 15.6% | Place: 57.5% | Value: 1.11x
Why That gear tweak and the positioning chance, plus she's got enough place probability to be a steady saver in a Soft 5.
3. Rouladen (No.6) — $5.60 / $1.82 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.82x
Why She can run a cheeky race, but the price band doesn't offer the place sweet spot today.
Roughie: Blazing Future (No.1) — $11.00 / $2.85 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 0.93x
Why She can win if the race opens up late and her early work turns into momentum, that's the whole deal.
Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, pace advantaged around the leaders, Soft 5 makes every corner a test.
Punty read: Farfetched (No.8) is the one I want on a wet track. She's got the look of a horse that can keep finding and doesn't panic when the ground gets heavy. Gaultier (No.3) is the backmarker danger, but watch the draw and the gear, he can get going late if the speed shape isn't too punishing. Adaptation (No.1) is the "can't ignore" on-pacer, and Kiss Of Gold (No.9) is your roughie for a longshot wobble, especially if the race falls apart at the 1000m mark.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Farfetched (No.8) — $2.30 / $1.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$16.90
Prob 44.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why Wet track profile plus the ability to hit the line without losing her rhythm, she looks the hardest to beat.
2. Gaultier (No.3) — $2.25 / $1.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why A real chance — but at $1.10 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Adaptation (No.1) — $7.00 / $1.75 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 64.6% | Value: 1.11x
Why She's a live chance for the top end of the placings, but the betting tells us we shouldn't overplay the place angle.
Roughie: Kiss Of Gold (No.9) — $14.00 / $2.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 31.0% | Value: 0.80x
Why Needs a big run and some racing luck, the kind you only get when everyone else gets stuck.
Race type: C1, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with a clear on-pacer at the top of the map.
Punty read: Waerea (No.1) is the obvious weapon. On Soft 5 over 1300m, being able to stay on the speed without fading is the whole winning script, and Waerea looks built for it. Dubai Adventure (No.2) and Hard Jakka (No.4) are the ones who can get in the race if the leader has to work too hard, but at this distance, if the front isn't overcooked, it's dangerous to be chasing. Galactic Force (No.3) is your roughie for the "I kept travelling and everyone else copped it" scenario.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Waerea (No.1) — $1.24 / $1.01 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$2.88
Prob 46.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.74x
Why Lead-and-keep-going is the play here, and Soft 5 suits horses that can keep a straight line and power through.
2. Dubai Adventure (No.2) — $10.00 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.70
Prob 10.8% | Place: 54.8% | Value: 1.39x
Why That map profile gives her a genuine chance to plug on, and the price shift says she's being aimed at the money.
3. Hard Jakka (No.4) — $11.30 / $2.40 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.57x
Why She can run a bold race from midfield, but the place band doesn't line up for a clean hit.
Roughie: Galactic Force (No.3) — $11.40 / $2.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $1.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$1.00
Prob 10.9% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.61x
Why If the leaders start to get bogged, he'll be the one getting home at the end of it.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1800m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, and the leaders should get a cushy run before the grind hits.
Punty read: Viewpoint (No.3) is the class signal on the speed, and Highborn Harry (No.7) is right there with the right late surge profile. The Iron Star (No.4) is the sneaky one for exact boxing, but the reason we're leaning where we are is because Soft 5 over 1800m gives you that "stay in the fight longer" effect. Inception (No.9) is the outsider threat if the race opens up. Lugarno (No.1) is the roughie type, and if the pace is too soft and he gets rolling late, he's capable of making you look smart for one race only.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Highborn Harry (No.7) — $3.62 / $1.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 22.5% | Place: 63.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why Soft 5 and 1800m, that's the perfect recipe for the one who can keep finding through the middle stages.
2. Viewpoint (No.3) — $3.35 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 21.5% | Place: 67.4% | Value: 0.91x
Why On-pace profile with a strong chance to hang around for the top end of the placings.
3. The Iron Star (No.4) — $3.65 / $1.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.7% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.82x
Why Looks like a runner that can fit the race, but the betting place value is not there.
Roughie: Lugarno (No.1) — $9.30 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.90x
Why Needs the race to favour a late run, and if the leaders do too much work early, he's there to capitalise.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace early, sprint pressure, and Soft 5 means you need to hit the ground running and keep your balance.
Punty read: Union (No.5) is my kind of maiden pick here, he's got the pace map to hold the position without getting swallowed. Mayweather (No.1) is live because if he shows even half the talent, 1100m is quick pay. Vain Temptress (No.2) is the stable bet we throw in for value, but this race is about who can stay clean at the first turn and not lose momentum in the bog. Latest Flame (No.8) and Legaselli (No.9) are the "if something goes wrong up front" players.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Union (No.5) — $3.25 / $1.32 🏆 2ND
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 26.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why Pace advantage plus the sprint trip on Soft 5, that combo is deadly when they don't overwork early.
2. Mayweather (No.1) — $4.05 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 20.4% | Place: 65.1% | Value: 0.79x
Why He's got enough upside for a place in a race where a clean run can become a short-price payday.
3. Vain Temptress (No.2) — $4.55 / $1.57 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why She's got place claims, but we're not forcing it at the wrong band.
Roughie: Velvet Rush (No.10) — $15.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 22.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why Needs everything to fall into place up front and the gaps to open, that's the roughie path.
Race type: C1, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so speed holds the keys, especially on a Soft 5 sprint.
Punty read: Castlejohn (No.1) is the map leader in all the important ways, and sprinting on Soft 5, being on the speed means you're spending less time recovering. Sprightly Affair (No.8) is the one for the value wink, and Dirty Summer (No.2) is a live danger if the leaders get hooked. Ballet Encore (No.6) is the roughie style, if they choke the pace early and she gets a clear shot, she can pop late, but it's a bit ask-and-answer.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Castlejohn (No.1) — $2.17 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$17.55
Prob 36.5% | Place: 66.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why He's the speed, he's got the draw to make use of it, and 1100m punishes anything that misses the kick.
2. Sprightly Affair (No.8) — $4.80 / $2.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.25x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Dirty Summer (No.2) — $5.60 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.02x
Why She can run on, but for a maiden of this shape you need to be in the right pocket, first up that's not guaranteed.
Roughie: Ballet Encore (No.6) — $12.75 / $4.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.5% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.56x
Why Needs pace pressure up front to open up and her to swoop late with clear air.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,2,4,3 / 3,7,4,1 / 5,2,1,10 / 1,8,2 (192 combos x $0.10 = $20.00) -- 10% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Rapid Revenue (Race 2, No.5)✓ Won — $2.08
2 - Farfetched (Race 3, No.8)✓ Won — $2.30
3 - Waerea (Race 4, No.1)✓ Won — $1.24
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hawkesbury on a Soft 5 where the straight lines turn into mud pies by the finish, and if you're not on the speed early you're basically watching from the couch.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Hawkesbury, 1100-1500m card
Rail: +5m 1100m - 450m, +3m 450 - WP, True remainder
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play sticky, advantage to horses that can hold a position)
Weather: Sunny, 19°C (gusts and a bit of chop, but no fresh rain) (watch for the track riding a touch slower than the sun suggests)
Early lane guess: Tight up front early, then the chaos starts around the bend, especially where the map says "on-pace"
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate early, so the leaders get a "free snack" at the turn, then everyone else has to grind home through the bog.
Jockeys to follow:
Chad Schofield: usually finds the right bit of real estate, and he's not scared of a Soft 5 grind
Keagan Latham: fearless aboard the fav types, and the sort who gets a run through traffic
Tyler Schiller: when the pace doesn't do them favours, he's the bloke who keeps the wheels on
Stables to respect:
Peter Snowden (2 runners): has the maiden pilots mapped for short, sharp races and today's not forgiving
C J Waller (2 runners): knows how to get them to the races, and Soft 5 suits their "let them find" style
P & M Cave (3 runners): brings that on-pacer pressure, and they're not shy about backing talent in
Punty's take:
Alright legends, here's the vibe. Hawkesbury on a Soft 5 with a sunny sky is the classic "looks better than it is" trap. The rail out is helping a few, but the real story is pace position. When the speed is honest, the on-pacers get to use the track like it owes them money. When the field strings out, the "grind and run on" crew gets home, and that's where you can steal a race without needing a miracle.
My spine of the day is simple: Race 4 is a short-price lead, Race 3 is a wet-track convert, and Race 2 is a mid-week style mismatch where the favourite profile actually lines up. From there, we let the roughies sniff around for the upset when the market loses its marbles a touch.
And listen, markets are doing the usual thing. A few firmers are real, a few are just getting dragged into the spotlight because everyone's pecking at the same shiny object. So I'm backing the ones with the map and the race story, not just vibes and a short price.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive where the race is set up for it. In this meeting, that usually means backing the on-pacers and the horses that can sit handy without getting trapped in a pocket. If you're chasing winners from the back on a Soft 5 at Hawkesbury, you're basically asking the track to hand you a sympathy medal.
For your betting plan:
- Use the Big 3 Multi spine like a seatbelt, not a lottery ticket. Waerea, Farfetched, and Rapid Revenue are the "these races can't go totally wrong" picks.
- Then protect yourself with the Top 3s that cover the real threats. The roughies are there for the value wobble, the "if the speed collapses, hello" scenario.
Gamble like a sicko, but gamble with a plan. If you're gonna be degenerate, at least be organised about it.