Friday, 20 March 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Kion's Kingdom likely to make it a proper test from the front
Punty read: Genuine Lady is the one they want to see fire with the blinkers on, but this race has enough speed to make it interesting. Kion's Kingdom maps to lead and the stallion chain going on first time says they're trying to sharpen him up, while Royal Scene has had serious market respect and looks the other main player despite the drift in this sort of run-on type. Raider's Own is the smoky if he can finally get the right run, but he needs the race to break apart like a pub fight at closing time.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Genuine Lady (No.6) — $5.10 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$19.60
Prob 21.7% | Place: 58.2% | Value: 1.40x
Why Blinkers go on and the horse gets a chance to sharpen up after that messy last run. From the middle draw she should get every chance in a race where the pace is genuine and the leaders won't get it all their own way.
2. Royal Scene (No.7) — $4.80 / $1.85 🏆 4TH
Bet $3.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.00
Prob 19.2% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.16x
Why The money's coming and you can see why - the market's treated him like a horse with a proper chance, and in a race where they should go a clip, he gets the sort of setup where he can grind into the finish.
3. Kion's Kingdom (No.1) — $7.40 / $2.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $2.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.60
Prob 14.9% | Place: 44.6% | Value: 1.39x
Why He's the one likely to roll along in front and make them chase. If the stallion chain tightens him up and he doesn't overdo it early, he can hang around like a bad house guest.
Roughie: Raider's Own (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.85 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 42.6% | Value: 0.88x
Why The map says he's going to need the right smother and a bit of luck after that wide run last start. If the front two overcook it, he can be the one snatching a cheque late.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with California Flyer controlling the show and a bunch of the others needing luck
Punty read: This is a classic maiden where the public's looking at the fave and the market's telling you Unfiltered is the one with the clearest path. California Flyer gets the perfect map from the fence, Unfiltered gets the gear change, and Dubai Affair is the kind of horse that keeps showing up without setting the world on fire. Awesome Orphan is the juicy snag if they overdo it up front and he gets to unwind late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Unfiltered (No.5) — $3.30 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $17.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 26.9% | Place: 71.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why First run was honest enough and the winkers go on, which usually means they want a sharper, more ruthless version today. Barrier two gives him the chance to settle right behind the speed and bully them late.
2. California Flyer (No.6) — $2.04 / $1.20 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.40
Prob 24.2% | Place: 67.3% | Value: 0.64x
Why The leader from the inside gate is always dangerous in these maidens. If he jumps clean and doesn't get dragged into a kamikaze tempo, he can hang on for a cheque and make life miserable for the swoopers.
3. Dubai Affair (No.7) — $3.95 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.1% | Place: 63.9% | Value: 1.13x
Why Honest on-pacer who keeps finding the line without putting the sword through them. The outside draw isn't ideal, but if he lands near the speed without burning gas, he's right in the frame.
Roughie: Awesome Orphan (No.8) — $19.00 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 2.51x
Why This is the sleeper. If the speed melts and the leaders go too hard, he can be the one storming home like he's late for the last bus.
Race type: Class 4, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with It's Jagger Time getting the perfect tactical lane
Punty read: This is the race where the map and the form actually shake hands instead of throwing punches. It's Jagger Time looks the proper horse here, Lady Galadriel has the class but the market is wobbling a touch, and Mastretta is the grinder who'll be there when the whips start singing. Flying Concello is the one the market's talked up, but that's not always the same thing as being the one you want to punt at the quote.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. It's Jagger Time (No.3) — $5.50 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 31.9% | Place: 58.9% | Value: 2.23x
Why Gets the map advantage in a race that should set up beautifully for a horse that can travel and produce. The good thing here is he's not relying on a miracle run - he just needs clean air and a fair go.
2. Lady Galadriel (No.5) — $2.52 / $1.35 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.7% | Place: 52.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why She's got the ability, but the market is asking her to do a bit too much work at the quote. If she keeps rolling forward and the leaders soften each other up, she can still threaten, but she's not the one I want to be paying top dollar for.
3. Mastretta (No.4) — $4.00 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 39.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why Reliable enough, and the track/distance combination suits the way he runs, but this isn't the race to go wild - he's more the bloke doing a solid job at the back of the truck than the flashy ad on the bonnet.
Roughie: Gee Gees Me Boy (No.1) — $12.00 / $4.67 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 14.8% | Value: 1.01x
Why If they overcook the speed or the leaders get edgy, he's the one that can sneak into the placings at a price and spice up the exacta or tri.
Race type: Maiden, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, which usually means the bloke who can settle, relax and then sprint isn't far off the heater
Punty read: Merlin Beach is the obvious horse to beat and the market's had a proper love-in with him. Sir Jag is the value runner with the right sort of back-end ability, Lord Hear Us gets the blinkers and might improve, and Miss Niagara can be the smokey if they crawl early and turn it into a 600m dash home. Geegees Royal Duke is the sentimental roughie - market says no, but the move says somebody's had a fiddle.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Merlin Beach (No.5) — $1.60 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 31.7% | Place: 58.4% | Value: 0.65x
Why The one they all have to beat. In a slow-run staying maiden, class and position matter, and he's the horse with the clearest class edge if the race doesn't become a mess.
2. Sir Jag (No.3) — $4.80 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet $2.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.50
Prob 26.4% | Place: 51.4% | Value: 1.62x
Why This bloke keeps finding one or two too good, but the market's finally taken a bit of notice and the long-run shape of this race suits him. If the tempo is dawdling, he can sit closer than usual and make a proper fist of it.
3. Lord Hear Us (No.4) — $3.60 / $1.60 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.5% | Place: 40.2% | Value: 0.90x
Why Blinkers first time is the sort of move that says "we're having a go", but he's still got to do it over a trip that can expose flat spots. Good enough to include in the story, not good enough to force the wallet open.
Roughie: Piping Willow (No.2) — $20.00 / $4.80 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 10.1% | Value: 1.14x
Why If the race turns into a crawl and the backmarkers get to sprint off a genuine sit, she's the one that can clatter into the minors and blow up the combinations.
Race type: BM60, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, which is why the classy sit-and-sprint types matter more than the big motor that needs a war
Punty read: Elegantly Written is the one I want parked on the shoulder of the leaders while everyone else is mucking around. Goddess Of Rock is the place play with the right kind of engine, Snow Eagle can run a cheeky race if he settles, and Alpine Blast is the roughie who could barge into it if the race turns into a slog. This is the sort of race where one bad decision from the hoop can turn a winner into a "what the hell happened there?" replay.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Elegantly Written (No.4) — $6.00 / $1.95 🏆 WINNER
Bet $11.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$54.05
Prob 19.5% | Place: 52.9% | Value: 1.50x
Why Track and trip fit, genuine class edge, and the map says he should get the run of the race. In a crawl, the horse that can quicken off a soft sit is gold.
2. Goddess Of Rock (No.8) — $8.50 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $9.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 16.6% | Place: 47.2% | Value: 1.82x
Why The market's not mucking around and she's got the profile of a horse that's ready to peak in this sort of race. If they stack them up and sprint, she's right in the sweet spot.
3. Snow Eagle (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 15.1% | Place: 44.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why Honest enough and will get every chance, but he's one of those horses that needs the right rhythm. If he gets the lovely trip behind the speed, he can hold a spot without being your hero.
Roughie: Alpine Blast (No.6) — $13.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 36.1% | Value: 1.98x
Why The map and the soft tempo are his mates. If the favourite and the main chances are left to crawl early, this bloke can come over the top like a late-night Tom Cruise plot twist.
Race type: Class 2, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Coastal Strike and Bellsprout giving the race enough juice to matter
Punty read: Artillery Fire is the obvious one and the market agrees, but the value in the race sits in the horses around him who can get the right run. Azonto has the map to land in the first wave, Jenni The Cat gets a decent tactical setup after a few excuses, and Tribal Council is the roughie if they overplay their hand and the race opens up late. Bayside is the one that could lob into the first three if the on-pace brigade goes too hard and starts folding like a cheap deck chair.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Artillery Fire (No.5) — $2.74 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.95
Prob 24.9% | Place: 64.8% | Value: 0.85x
Why The horse maps to sit on the speed and that's exactly where you want to be in a race like this. If he runs to his recent form, he's the anchor of the whole event.
2. Azonto (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.15
Prob 20.1% | Place: 56.9% | Value: 1.10x
Why Gets the map advantage, has the right distance profile, and the stable knows how to get one to peak when the race shape suits. He's the sort of horse that can sit in the slipstream and have the last crack.
3. Jenni The Cat (No.7) — $6.50 / $2.30 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 16.2% | Place: 48.7% | Value: 1.31x
Why Forgive the last couple and give her a clean ride, and she's right back in the mix. This is the sort of race where she can stalk the speed and make up late ground if the leaders start breathing fire.
Roughie: Tribal Council (No.4) — $16.00 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 31.4% | Value: 1.88x
Why If the genuine tempo gets fierce and the inside runners start feeling the pinch, he can roll into the placings at a nice little number and ruin a few exactas.
Race type: BM76, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, which gives the sit-and-finish types their shot if the speed doesn't go silly
Punty read: Magnaprime has been backed like a horse they reckon can keep his winning run alive, and you can see why - he's got the right pattern and the right form. Sh'bourne Midnight is the big overlay danger, Earendel is talented but needs the right roll, and Zany Girl can swoop if they go too hard up top. Go Jeanie is the tricky one: blinkers again, market drift, but still capable if they decide to roll the dice.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Magnaprime (No.1) — $3.70 / $1.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $8.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 22.1% | Place: 59.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why The market's had a solid munch on him for a reason. He maps well, the form is rock solid, and the stable/jockey setup suggests they want to keep the streak rolling.
2. Zany Girl (No.10) — $3.65 / $1.50 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.80
Prob 19.2% | Place: 53.9% | Value: 0.91x
Why Backmarker with a solid finish if the race gets pressure. From the outside she needs things to fall her way, but if they do, she'll be launching like a finale scene in Top Gun.
3. Go Jeanie (No.9) — $9.00 / $2.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 32.5% | Value: 1.18x
Why Blinkers again says they're trying to sharpen her up, but the drift is a warning sign. She needs the race to unfold her way and a bit of luck from the draw.
Roughie: Sh'bourne Midnight (No.2) — $8.00 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 45.3% | Value: 1.57x
Why Best roughie on the page. The stable has a live chance here and if the race becomes a tactical squeeze, this mare is the one most likely to be rattling home over the top.
Race type: BM68, 2100m
Map & tempo: Moderate tempo, and this is the sort of race where patience pays if you're on the right stayer
Punty read: Moorlands Miss is the official market pick, but the model leans to Spring Bean and Lindrum because they map better and bring the right finishing shape. Royal Dispatch is the sneaky one with the overlay, and if the pace is only moderate he can land in the money at a fat number. Iffycould and Tideford are the sort of runners that can fill out the exotics if the leaders drop anchor and the race turns into a long, ugly grind.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Moorlands Miss (No.5) — $3.40 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.2% | Place: 63.2% | Value: 1.05x
Why The favourite is there on merit, but at the price I don't want to go chasing. She'll probably run well, but the value is sitting elsewhere.
2. Spring Bean (No.1) — $5.50 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $16.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$41.25
Prob 16.4% | Place: 48.8% | Value: 1.15x
Why Gets a nice enough midfield map and has the right kind of track form to make a serious fist of 2100m. If he settles and gets room, he'll be charging late.
3. Lindrum (No.7) — $12.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $8.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 12.4% | Place: 39.3% | Value: 1.90x
Why Big overlay and a horse that can absolutely make the exotics sing if the speed gets honest. He doesn't need much to go right, just a fair enough run and some daylight.
Roughie: Royal Dispatch (No.3) — $9.50 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 2.29x
Why The roughie with the biggest smoke signal. If he gets a clean trip from the middle and the race doesn't turn into a bog of attrition, he can absolutely mug a few of these late.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,7,1,2 / 5,6,7,8 / 3,5,4 / 5,3,4 (144 combos x $0.35 = $50.00) -- 35% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 4,8,5,6 / 5,2,7,4 / 1,10,2,9 / 5,3,1,7 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.00) -- 14% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3 / 5 / 4 / 5 / 1 / 5 (1 combos x $5.00 = $5.00) -- 500% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - It's Jagger Time (Race 3, No.3)✗ — $5.50
2 - Merlin Beach (Race 4, No.5)✗ — $1.60
3 - Elegantly Written (Race 5, No.4)✓ Won — $6.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Launceston's serving up a Soft 5 with the rail out 4m and a bit of a south-easterly shove in the air, which usually means you want horses that can sit handy, travel sweetly and actually finish the job instead of doing the old "I'm cruising, I'm cruising... nah I'm cooked" routine.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Launceston, 1400m to 2100m card
Rail: +4m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play a touch leader/handy-friendly)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 20°C, humidity 60%, wind 18km/h SE (watch for gusty chop late)
Early lane guess: On-speed and midfield runners with cover look safest; wide swoopers need tempo and luck
Tempo profile: Plenty of genuine tempo in the sprints, a few crawl-and-sprint staying races, and a couple of absolute trench-warfare maidens
Jockeys to follow:
Ms Erica Byrne Burke, keeps landing in the right races and gets the map read right when the tempo's hot
Jabez Johnstone(a), handy claim, good in the big decisions, and a few of his rides are getting serious support
Ms Codi Jordan, sits close enough to be dangerous and is on a stack of live chances all day
Stables to respect:
J K Blacker (multiple runners), has a bunch of chances throughout the card and a few are being kept honest in the market
Adam Trinder (multiple runners), can unearth value in these Tassie races and isn't afraid to press the button
G J Stevenson (multiple runners), plenty of live ones, and when his pair get market heat you don't want to be asleep at the wheel
Punty's take:
This meeting is a proper Launceston slugfest: some races are straight-up bar fights, others are crawl-and-sprint nonsense where the bloke on the fence can pinch the whole thing. The Soft 5 should keep things honest without turning it into a mud wrestling contest, so the main play is horses that can either hold a spot or keep rolling when the pressure goes on. The leaders and handy types are the ones I want circling in the first half of the card, because if you get buried back and need a miracle, you're basically asking for a Hollywood ending and those don't pay the mortgage.
The market's had a decent sniff at a few of the right ones too - Royal Scene, Geegees Royal Duke, Sir Jag, Magnaprime and Lindrum have all had cash land on their heads like it's a pub tab getting settled. That usually means somebody's liked what they've seen in trials, gallops or the speed map. But don't get hypnotised by the steamers alone; some of the best value is hiding in the horses that can sit just off the speed and get first run when the pack starts doing the old Benny Hill chase scene.
The biggest thing today is race shape. In the maidens and middle-distance races, if the leader gets to breathe, the swoopers are in trouble. In the longer races, especially Race 4 and Race 8, you want the horses that can sustain a run and not just flash for one furlong like a Marvel hero after a reboot. If you're playing the day straight, keep your boots on the ground and don't go full lunatic in the exotics unless the race shape gives you a proper lane.
What it means for you:
We lean into the on-speed and map-advantaged types early, then get a bit more selective as the card stretches out and the legs get heavier. The maidens are where you can cop a stiff one, so don't spray the cash - back the runners with the right map and a decent line through the market. Races 3, 4 and 5 are the anchors for the day, and if you're building a multi, that's where you want the spine, not some $41 poke who's been writing checks its legs can't cash.
Use the strong value on the right horses, but keep a lid on the chaos races where the market is all over the shop. That's the difference between looking like a shrewd punter and becoming a cautionary tale in the group chat by 3:15pm.