Friday, 17 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with pace advantages where Immortalised and others can get a run behind leaders
Punty read: This is one of those maidens where the race shape decides everything. Mike's Hope (No.5) has the best position to do minimal work, and when they get that kind of trip at 1400m on Soft 5, they often just hold on through the grind. Immortalised (No.3) looks like she's been building into this prep, and blinkers again says the stable's done the homework on getting her into the race a touch quicker. Sibun (No.7) can be there around the right part of the track, but she's more the "runs on and gets there" type than a full send.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Mike's Hope (No.5) — $1.52 / $1.07 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$7.80
Prob 38.2% | Place: 63.2% | Value: 0.79x
Why Slow tempo helps him settle and keep rhythm, and the market's backing the "get on with it" angle.
2. Immortalised (No.3) — $4.60 / $1.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.5% | Place: 55.5% | Value: 1.27x
Why Blinkers again and the late each-way style profile, but the field is small for places so value is mostly win-or-nothing.
3. Sibun (No.7) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.1% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.05x
Why She can run into the frame late, but place dividends are thin today, so we protect the stakes on the ones with clearer paths.
Roughie: Mr Nipper (No.6) — $20.75 / $4.80 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.3% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 1.18x
Why If the pace scenario collapses and he steps up late, sure, but this is the "sneaky for one run" sort, not a main bet.
Race type: Maiden, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow tempo, pace advantage groups, and the classic 2000m where position at the turn is everything
Punty read: Mission Taichi (No.7) looks like the type who can steal this on a Soft track because he can just bide time, then lift when they hit the pressure points. The race shape being slow makes his style even more useful, because you don't have to go hunting too early. Kings Anchor (No.5) is the one I respect for place leverage, because he's got the market clout and gear switch profile that says he can keep improving his finishing result. Numbersneverseen (No.8) is a value player if you get the right trip, but he's not the one I'm forcing for the win here.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Mission Taichi (No.7) — $2.05 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.50
Prob 31.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.93x
Why Drawn to get a reasonable run and the tempo suits his "let them come" style.
2. King's Anchor (No.5) — $2.51 / $1.57 🏆 5TH
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 30.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.38x
Why Blinkers off and freshen tactics, and in a slow 2000m, those place results add up.
3. Numbersneverseen (No.8) — $9.05 / $2.65 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.29x
Why He might run on, but the place confidence isn't there for me, not with better place options in the race.
Roughie: All The Moves (No.1) — $13.50 / $3.30 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.6% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.80x
Why If you want chaos, start somewhere else. This one needs everything to go his way.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Unstirred and other leaders set it up, and the sprint turn matters
Punty read: Just Like Jagger (No.2) is the one I want. Genuine pace means she doesn't have to chase from last and hope for miracles. She can just sit in the flow, then do what the best of these maidens do, run past the tired ones late. Royal Heritage (No.4) and Havana Moon (No.6) both have upgrade potential with the Soft 5 playing nicely for those who can sustain through the grind, but you're gambling a bit harder for wins here at the odds. Shujinko (No.5) is a roughie type if the pace keeps coming.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Just Like Jagger (No.2) — $1.52 / $1.05 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 41.3% | Place: 60.9% | Value: 0.97x
Why Genuine pace, sharp turn sprint, and she's already shown she can run on in the race.
2. Royal Heritage (No.4) — $8.60 / $2.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.41x
Why Several gear changes, plus the run should improve, but places are too thin to get cute.
3. Havana Moon (No.6) — $8.80 / $2.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.79x
Why There's a path to it, but for me the win value is better taken elsewhere.
Roughie: Shujinko (No.5) — $9.00 / $2.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.04x
Why Looks like a bounceback chance, but the place confidence isn't strong enough to add stake.
Race type: BM66, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow sprint, pace is there but the leaders aren't going crazy early
Punty read: Bad Blood (No.1) is the classic "this is her job" type at the straight sprint trip. She's already shown she can win, and the market's aggressive because the form profile says she won't need a perfect run to be competitive. Himeno (No.7) is the sneaky danger if she gets the right spot and doesn't overdo it early. Wicked Storm (No.8) has the place leverage feel, because Soft 5 usually helps those who can keep going down the outside and not fold when they hit the real work.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Bad Blood (No.1) — $1.91 / $1.08 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 33.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.81x
Why Class edge in a short sprint, and she's already proven she can hit the line first.
2. Himeno (No.7) — $5.65 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.00
Prob 17.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.21x
Why The market says she's live, and with slow pace, she can sit just off and mow them down late.
3. Wicked Storm (No.8) — $7.15 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.00
Prob 13.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.24x
Why Soft 5 plus a clean run can turn a midpack effort into a hard close.
Roughie: Vilnius (No.4) — $9.20 / $2.60 🏆 4TH
Bet $1.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$1.00
Prob 5.3% | Place: 25.2% | Value: 0.61x
Why If the race doesn't completely unfold for the obvious types, he can get into the right lane and run on.
Race type: BM70, 1000m
Map & tempo: Slow 1000m, but the sprint makes position everything
Punty read: Demojo (No.1) is your "if he breaks on terms, he wins" type. 1000m on Soft 5 means you can't waste steps, and he's built for quick acceleration then holding his ground. Surprisatic (No.3) and Bine (No.5) are the main challengers, but Surprisatic's win story is a bit more fragile and Bine is more of a place-play. Monix (No.6) is a longer-shot roughie, Grand Host (No.7) drifts a little, but if you see the right run early, it can tighten the finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Demojo (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.82 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 29.9% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.37x
Why Soft 5 plus proven sprint ability, and he's the one who can turn a slow tempo into a short-priced salute.
2. Surprisatic (No.3) — $3.95 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.71x
Why He can run a big race, but we're not paying to hope in a field this thin.
3. Bine (No.5) — $5.20 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.93x
Why He's good for a run, but not the priority for win.
Roughie: Monix (No.6) — $13.25 / $4.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.74x
Why He needs a specific trip and a clear run, and 1000m doesn't give you time to think.
Race type: BM70, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow classic 2000m, so the turn is where you win or lose your legs
Punty read: Longer Route (No.6) is the place-leverage play of the race for a reason. On this tempo, he can stalk without getting pressured too soon, and Soft 5 usually helps those who can keep finding under them as the race drifts along. Pariah Pearl (No.7) looks like a proper contender as well, because she has the on-pace profile and the gear change package suggests intent. The Devil In Her (No.3) is the one I like for place too, because she's got the class and she's already shown she can get through the line in these sort of assignments.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.50 pool)
1. Longer Route (No.6) — $3.90 / $1.57 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 25.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why He maps into a perfect rhythm, and 2000m on Soft is where stalking can turn into a winning move.
2. Pariah Pearl (No.7) — $5.00 / $1.75 🏆 8TH
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 23.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.37x
Why She can sit on and not get buried, and those gear changes are usually there for a reason.
3. The Devil In Her (No.3) — $6.00 / $1.75 🏆 5TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 21.2% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.51x
Why Proven staying sprint build, and she should be finishing hard in the last 200.
Roughie: All So Clear (No.1) — $11.00 / $2.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 28.8% | Value: 1.03x
Why He's got a shout for placings if the race falls apart, but the main plays have more consistent run paths.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders have a real job, and 1400m punishes the back markers
Punty read: This is a race where the pace is honest, so you don't want to be too far back unless the race truly collapses. Run Harry Run (No.1) profiles as a safe type, and when the map says he's on pace, he's hard to ignore. Fine Future (No.4) is the one with value because the place leverage is there, and he can sit closer than his odds imply. Black Storm (No.7) looks like he can control the race if he breaks clean, and that's why you see him attracting support.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Run Harry Run (No.1) — $3.90 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.50 Each Way ($7.75W + $7.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$31.77
Prob 20.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why With genuine speed on, he can hold position and keep coming, and the odds are still fair for the EW.
2. Fine Future (No.4) — $6.95 / $2.40 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.8% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.66x
Why He's got the place look and the run. The bet structure doesn't need extra insurance when we already cover the EW spine.
3. Black Storm (No.7) — $4.65 / $1.82 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.92
Prob 18.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why If he gets into a nice lead or stalking position, he's the type who makes the line hard to cross.
Roughie: Sought After (No.11) — $11.25 / $3.30 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 0.96x
Why He's got the long-run threat, but I'm not paying to find out when the top three have cleaner pace pictures.
Race type: BM66, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, position in midfield with Soft 5 makes the finish about timing
Punty read: Zorro's Flight (No.3) is the money horse in the race, and the map supports it. He's positioned to get into the right part of the field and then hit the last section with options. El Tercero (No.4) is the danger because he's got speed and can arrive late, but he's a touch more "prove it" than the top pick. She's Ann Idea (No.13) is a sneaky price for place if she gets a clean run, and In Her Stride (No.10) can run on, but the real threat is how the Soft 5 lets midfield runners keep grinding instead of stopping.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Zorro's Flight (No.3) — $3.00 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 32.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.13x
Why Correct type for the tempo, and he should be in the right lanes to stick it out.
2. El Tercero (No.4) — $3.45 / $1.52 🏆 WINNER
Bet $9.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.94
Prob 22.3% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why Keeps showing finishing intent, and Soft 5 rewards those who can keep rolling through the last stretch.
3. She's Ann Idea (No.13) — $9.50 / $2.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 10.7% | Place: 59.6% | Value: 1.20x
Why Place leverage is the play, and she's the sort who can nab a position at the right moment.
Roughie: In Her Stride (No.10) — $10.75 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.61x
Why She can run on, but I'm not adding extra when the race is built around the top two place options.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 5,3,7 / 7,5,8 / 2,4,6 / 1,7,2,8,4 (135 combos x $0.15 = $20.00) -- 15% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,3,5 / 6,7,3,1 / 7,1,4,11 / 3,13,4,10 (192 combos x $0.26 = $50.00) -- 26% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 2 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 1 / 3 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Mike's Hope (Race 1, No.5)✓ Won — $1.52
2 - Just Like Jagger (Race 3, No.2)✗ — $1.52
3 - Bad Blood (Race 4, No.1)✗ — $1.91
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Mildura on a Soft 5 with the rail jammed true the whole way. Morning fog, then sunny, so expect horses to either jump out of the ground like a Marvel cameo, or ping out early and go "fuck this" halfway down the straight. Either way, grab a ticket, because this card's got that "one of them's a secret weapon" stink about it.
We're kicking off with tight little maidens and long-priced manners in Race 1 and Race 2, then it turns into a proper guessing game from Race 3 onward. The pace profile is generally slow early, which means if you're on the speed map, you're doing more than just watching the race happen. You're steering it. And when the track's Soft 5 with true rail, the finish power matters, so I'm leaning into runners who can hold position, then shift gear late.
Big spine for the day is the Big 3 + Multi too, because when the favourites look short, it's easy money… right up until it isn't. So we're taking the short-ish, proven types, and slotting them into a multi that doesn't require the universe to clap.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Mildura, 8 race card (1400m to 2000m)
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Mid-strength, with some give for runners who can finish off)
Weather: Morning fog then sunny, 13°C, watch for gusty late spring moves (fog lift means early positions matter)
Early lane guess: Early speed plus wide lanes still can win if they're close to the speed by the turn
Tempo profile: Slow early, then a few races where the tempo lifts and the "saving ground" idea turns into "saving legs"
Jockeys to follow:
Dean Yendall: Flying under the radar, but consistently lands on the right horse for the right trip.
Harry Coffey: Gets them where they need to be, especially when the race starts genuine.
Brad Rawiller: Loves these Soft tracks, and when he backs the right type, they go bang.
Stables to respect:
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (2 runners): They're building horses to strike at the right time, and the market doesn't always waste their breath.
P A Preusker (2 runners): When they put gear on, it's usually with purpose, not vibes.
Patrick Payne (2 runners): His blokes can improve fast, and Mildura is where they can get away with it.
Punty's take: Mildura today is the classic "sit close, don't get trapped, finish fast" track. Soft 5 usually rewards horses who can keep momentum without needing everything to go right. True rail straight line action means inside runners can hold a position advantage, but only if they're not doing it in the wrong way, hanging on the fence and burning gas.
In Race 1, the market's all over the favourite Mike's Hope (No.5), and that's because the map says he'll get a lovely run. But the real story is Immortalised (No.3), because she's the type that can sneak into a spot behind the speed and then finally do the job with blinkers again.
From Race 3 through to Race 8, you want to be ruthless with your selections. Just Like Jagger (No.2) and Bad Blood (No.1) are the "no dramas, just win the bloody thing" profiles. Meanwhile Zorro's Flight (No.3) in Race 8 is the sort of horse that's either a simple job or a complete disaster, and I'm happy to be on the "simple job" side.
What it means for you: If you're starting light, you've got to back the races that suit your style. Today my style is: win-capable favourites where the conditions fit, then add a couple of value angles where the Soft 5 makes them more dangerous than the odds suggest.
Race 1 and Race 2 are your value hunting grounds. After that, Race 4, Race 6 and Race 8 are the places I want you protected, because the map and the gear changes point to consistent finishing power. If you're going to get cheeky, get cheeky on the place side in the longer ones, not the chaotic sprints.
Now, here's the spine, then we race-walk the whole card.