Wednesday, 24 June 2026
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. No.10 Kalgarry Ally and No.2 Dunamis are the likely tempo players, with No.5 Sombr and No.12 Threez Company looming as the better late threat if they don't dawdle too hard.
Punty read: This is the sort of race where a steady crawl can turn into a proper arm-wrestle in the last 300m. No.5 Sombr is the class and the market knows it, while No.12 Threez Company gets the right sort of heavy-track profile to keep coming. The one to watch for a sneaky run is No.4 Rotten Tommy if the legs are still there after the long break, but this looks more like a race for the honest ones than the flashy ones.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Sombr (No.5) — $3.58 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P) — Cashed, net -$2.40
Prob 16.5% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.55x
Why Heavily backed, has the right sort of map for a wet slog, and if the race turns into a survival test he's the one most likely to keep finding when the others are paddling.
2. Threez Company (No.12) — $3.58 / $1.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.79x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Saffron (No.11) — $5.95 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.50x
Why Good enough to respect, but this is one of those heavy-track maidens where the place side needs to be rock solid before I get excited.
Roughie: Compulsion (No.1) — $14.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.52x
Why Had excuses last start, but he still needs everything to go right and then some; if he gets shuffled or the tempo turns weird, he's the sort of bloke who can end up stone motherless.
Race type: Maiden, 1500m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. No.11 Queen Sansa looks the likely pilot, with the front half under proper pressure and a few wide draws having to do extra work in the slop.
Punty read: This is a proper chaos leg. No.8 G'day Goldie gets the soft map and the wet-track edge, No.9 Go Joanna is in the right zone if she can hold a stalking run, and No.1 Greek Anthology is the sort of honest type that can sit in the first wave and have a crack late. The drifters with bad draws are asking for trouble on this track - one bad move and you're doing the wet-track version of a George Costanza exit.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. G'day Goldie (No.8) — $4.80 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $17.00 Each Way ($8.50W + $8.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$17.00
Prob 17.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.60x
Why Has the best sort of map in a race where a lot of these want to make their own luck, and on heavy ground that can be worth its weight in gold.
2. Go Joanna (No.9) — $5.65 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.94x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Greek Anthology (No.1) — $4.90 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.50
Prob 17.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.88x
Why Honest as the day is long, with the right sort of trainer/jockey profile to keep hanging around when the leaders start feeling the pinch.
Roughie: Hollaback Girl (No.12) — $16.50 / $4.80 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.62x
Why Can run a place if the race gets messy and the better-fancied ones poke holes in each other, but you'd want a crystal ball and a lucky rabbit's foot.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. No.2 Noble Cabello settles back and lets the race unfold, with No.1 Confectionist and No.10 Pact likely to have the last crack if the tempo is honest enough.
Punty read: This is a lovely little heavy-track chess match. No.2 Noble Cabello is the one they have to beat, especially with the market support and the right wet-day profile. No.1 Confectionist and No.10 Pact are the obvious late players, and if the front bunch go too dainty it'll turn into a sit-and-swoop job like the last lap of a Formula 1 race with half the tyres cooked.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. Noble Cabello (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.35
Bet $7.00 Win — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 22.9% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.01x
Why Best combination of wet-track credentials, form, and the sort of setup where a smart rider can save ground and peel at the right time.
2. Confectionist (No.1) — $3.25 / $1.37
Bet $7.00 Place — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 22.9% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.33x
Why The map is a touch awkward, but the pace gives this horse a genuine chance to chime in late and keep rolling when the leaders start gasping.
3. Pact (No.10) — $4.10 / $1.60
Bet $2.50 Place — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 11.7% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.93x
Why The market's had a proper dig, and the horse has enough of the right profile to be right there if the race turns into a grind.
Roughie: Call Me A Cab (No.4) — $12.50 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.95x
Why Can run on if the race gets messy, but he needs the gaps to appear and that's always a dangerous ask in a maiden with a bit of traffic.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.1 Requisite has the pace to sit handy despite barrier 16, No.9 Gracetheace should be in the right spot, and No.3 Golden Point looks the honest stalker if the leaders don't pinch a break.
Punty read: Barrier 16 for No.1 Requisite is no holiday, but the wet-track market support says the stable means business and the horse has been found in the right race. No.9 Gracetheace and No.3 Golden Point are the stalking pair, while No.12 Merriama is the sort of fresh one that could lob into the finish if the pace gets a touch wrong. This one smells like one of those "if you're not in the first wave, you're playing catch-up" races.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Requisite (No.1) — $3.95 / $1.65
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 15.6% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.44x
Why Heavily backed, proven around the wet, and if the rider can avoid doing too much work from the alley apocalypse, this horse is right in it.
2. Gracetheace (No.9) — $4.80 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.19x
Why Strong money has come for it and the form line says it can handle the slog, but Punty's keeping the stake concentrated on the key lane.
3. Golden Point (No.3) — $8.40 / $2.80
Bet $5.00 Place — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 11.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.65x
Why The map is good enough to give this one a crack at a placing, and on a Heavy 10 that's often half the battle.
Roughie: Merriama (No.12) — $9.40 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.17x
Why Fresh resumer with a bit of upside, but the race shape and barrier puzzle mean she's more of a watch-this-space than a must-have.
Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.5 Jamestown and No.1 Da Ace should be in the thick of it, with No.3 The Mailman and No.10 Misstillymara needing the right run through the middle stages.
Punty read: This is the old-fashioned heavy-track mile where fitness matters and the horse that keeps finding is worth two flash types. No.1 Da Ace is the reliable one, No.3 The Mailman is the logical favourite, and No.10 Misstillymara can absolutely run a drum if the pace and position are friendly. But it's also a race where a bad trip can bury you like a bad sequel - nobody wants that.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Da Ace (No.1) — $4.83 / $2.25
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 11.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.69x
Why Honest, fit enough, and the sort of horse that can keep grinding when the others are looking for the off-switch.
2. The Mailman (No.3) — $3.33 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.88x
Why Clear enough chance, but the race is open and Punty's not overcommitting when the wet track can make a fool out of the shortest price.
3. Misstillymara (No.10) — $5.22 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 0.53x
Why Can absolutely keep going if it gets the right tow into the race, but it's not the kind of place proposition I want to force.
Roughie: Paper Romance (No.6) — $10.10 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.83x
Why If the race turns into a boggy war of attrition, this one can sneak into the finish, but it's more of a spoiler than a headline act.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.5 Sir Fergus and No.7 Misissipi Gambler can hold a handy line, while No.3 Oratia Beauty and No.6 Timetoplaythegame sit in the first wave and try to out-grind the others.
Punty read: This is the sort of race where half the field looks like they want the coffee more than the prize money. No.3 Oratia Beauty is the locked selection, but this leg has plenty of live wet-track types underneath it and the shape is messy enough to make your teeth itch. No.11 Santita and No.12 Smart Tip are the sneaky value animals in the background, but the official play is to trust the horse that should keep trucking when the track gets ugly.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Oratia Beauty (No.3) — $3.85 / $1.70
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 13.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.81x
Why Fits the grind, has enough class to matter, and if the race becomes a slog from the 600m then this is the sort that keeps punching.
2. Sir Fergus (No.5) — $3.19 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.82x
Why Good enough on his day, but the pattern today says he has to do a bit too much right to justify a second bite.
3. Misissipi Gambler (No.7) — $3.08 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.77x
Why Honest type, but with the heavy ground and the map shape, he's more a place chance than a "get on and pray" job.
Roughie: Nulli (No.9) — $21.50 / $5.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.17x
Why A wet track can turn these old mugs into magicians, but this one still needs the race to fall apart in front of it.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. No.1 Arjay's Flight and No.10 Empressive are in that first chasing wave, No.8 Morning Cocoa can park wider and keep coming, and No.11 Final Reason is the roughie that gets one good crack if the pace turns genuine.
Punty read: This is the race where the market has been having a proper tug-of-war. No.8 Morning Cocoa and No.10 Empressive have had plenty of support, No.7 Sacred Combatant is no stranger to the conditions, and No.1 Arjay's Flight is the one Punty's happy to lean on for the each-way spine. It feels like one of those mile races where the winners are the ones who don't panic when the track starts to feel like a sponge.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)
1. Arjay's Flight (No.1) — $6.80 / $2.50
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P) — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 11.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.14x
Why Honest, fit, and the sort of grinder who can keep building when the others are looking for traction.
2. Morning Cocoa (No.8) — $4.35 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.73x
Why The money's there and the wet-track profile is there, but Punty's not doubling up when the race is this open.
3. Empressive (No.10) — $7.05 / $2.65
Bet $4.00 Place — ⊘ Abandoned · bet voided (stake refunded)
Prob 11.6% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.23x
Why Fresh horse, market says "hello", and on this sort of day a fresh one that handles the bog can absolutely lob into the placings.
Roughie: Final Reason (No.11) — $9.30 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.22x
Why The roughie path is there if they overcook it up front and the race falls into his lap late.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,9,3,12 / 1,3,10,6 / 3,5,7,6 / 10,1,8,11 (256 combos x $0.12 = $30.24) -- 12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Sombr (Race 1, No.5)✗ — $3.58
2 - Noble Cabello (Race 3, No.2) — $3.00
3 - Confectionist (Race 3, No.1) — $3.25
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Pukekohe's copped a full soaking, the rail is True, and Heavy 10 conditions mean this is less "beautiful gallop" and more "survive the swamp and don't trip over your own backside". This card is going to reward the tough bastards who can handle the muck, switch off in the run, and still knuckle down when the others start waving the white flag.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Pukekohe Park, 1200m-1600m card
Rail: True
Official going: Heavy 10 (expected to play like a proper slog where wet-track grinders and on-pace types can get away with murder)
Weather: Raining (watch for chop-outs, fence wear, and late-race lane changes)
Early lane guess: Inside-to-middle early, but if the True rail chews up fast, the better ground may creep off the fence by the back end
Tempo profile: A mixed bag - a few crawl-and-sprint setups, a couple of genuine pressure races, and then some absolute chaos merchants in the middle-to-late legs
Jockeys to follow:
Michael Mc Nab, gets the right sort of sit-and-pounce rides when the track turns into a bog
Jasmine Fawcett, handy on the honest grinders and often the one getting the job done when others get trapped
George Rooke, keeps finding the right line in these wet-track skirmishes and lands a few juicy ones
Stables to respect:
B Wallace & G Cooksley (2 runners), their types often keep finding under pressure, and that matters when the ground is cooked
Emma Faber (2 runners), a couple here with the right profile for the slog, and the market has to keep them honest
Ben & Ryan Foote (2 runners), not here to muck about; they bring the sort of horse that can punch through the muck and still keep going
Punty's take:
This meeting is a bit like trying to play footy in a rice paddy - the smart play isn't always the flash horse, it's the one that won't get embarrassed when the tempo changes and the footing turns to shit. The market's already latched onto a few of the obvious ones - Sombr, Threez Company, Requisite, Gracetheace, Empressive - but on a day like this, you don't want to just chase the shiny thing and ignore the wet-track truth. Heavy 10s love to expose the soft ones.
The spine of the card is the heavy-track stayers and the horses with a map to sit in the first wave. Race 1 and Race 3 look like the cleanest sit-and-kick races if the jockeys don't get cute. Race 2 is a proper scramble, Race 4 has the nasty barrier puzzle, and Races 5, 6 and 7 are all the kind of races that can make a sensible punter feel like they're in a Christopher Nolan film - confusing, muddy, and probably one leg short of a quaddie miracle. But there is still value in the right shapes.
What it means for you:
I'm not getting married to too many win bets today. This is a place-and-each-way day, with the plan being: keep the powder dry in the ugly races, lean into the runners with wet form and a decent map, and only push when the model and the race shape are singing from the same hymn sheet. If a horse is going to be bailed up behind a wall of mud, don't be a hero.
The cleaner plays are Race 3 with No.2 Noble Cabello, Race 1 with No.5 Sombr, and Race 7 with No.1 Arjay's Flight if you want a bit of each-way juice. The quaddie is more "have a crack and enjoy the sweat" than "write your own ticket", so keep the sequence sensible and don't go full magpie on the drifters. There's enough muck on the track already without adding your bankroll to it.